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Ukraine 22: Anyone else holding their breath?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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Zelensky labeling Putins withdrawal from the UN brokered grain export arrangement-

 

Zelensky: Russia is "deliberately working to ensure starvation" with suspension from grain deal

https://www.cnn.com/webview/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-30-22#h_fe8265aae4c1a8becf39f0f20a8410f6

Eta: Time to kick this rogue state out of the G20.

 

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4 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

Interesting choice. If Russia destroys the grain shipment, then Ukraine can tell Africa that Russia is stopping their vital grain shipments. 

If Russia destroys the grain shipment, then that's terrorism on the international stage, not "just" the local level

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16 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

Maybe they'll blame the UK navy for this too? 

Then they'd be literally asking NATO to get more directly involved in kicking their arses (which may still be what they want, even though I don't buy it)

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On the other hand, if the shipment goes ahead and Russia does nothing then Putin is admitting that Russia is powerless to stop the shipments.

Best case scenario, Russia lets it happen and then unconvincingly tries to pass it off as Russian generosity?

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Interestingly, this boat was coming out of an area that was not covered in the grain deal (Ochakiv, in Mykolaiv Oblast) and has been under regular fire for the duration of the conflict. The grain deal only covers Odesa.

Obviously it's still indefensible, especially when that's very clearly a civilian vessel.

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3 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Interestingly, this boat was coming out of an area that was not covered in the grain deal (Ochakiv, in Mykolaiv Oblast) and has been under regular fire for the duration of the conflict. The grain deal only covers Odesa.

Obviously it's still indefensible, especially when that's very clearly a civilian vessel.

It seems the convoy is making good progress toward regular shipping lanes:

https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1587108643585015814?s=46&t=Tu4G-LrBEU93-KgGpGhB2g

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Some reports that Erdogan might have been on the phone to Putin and is "unhappy" about him unilaterally pulling the plug on the grain deal without consulting him.

Erdogan's pull with Putin is significant (not infinite, but still), and Putin needs him on-side to not enflame the situation in Syria and Armenia-Azerbaijan to Russia's detriment, so he has some weight. Maybe the deal gets reinstated or the convoy is allowed to go unmolested. I suspect Putin will want some sort of statement showing Russia in a positive light rather than it looking like Russia has been cowed into not attacking the convoy by simple PR.

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As far as I can tell, the convoy has left the Black Sea. Clearly Putin realised that not even he could swing the optics of blowing up a cargo ship bound for Ethiopia filled with grain which is urgently needed to avoid massive food shortages, not if he wants to retain support (or friendly neutrality) from African nations.

Russia seemed to change its messaging overnight, saying it had merely paused its participation in the grain scheme, not cancelled it altogether.

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I think it was the prospect of firing at Turkish (NATO) warships escorting the convoy that gave him pause, not PR. I'm pretty sure Turkey could defeat Russia by itself at this point, without even asking the rest of NATO for help.

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Looks like someone walked into a Russian helicopter repair facility in Pskov and blew up three Ka-52 helicopters. That's well inside Russian borders (actually closer to Estonia than anywhere else).

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I wonder if it was an Ukrainian intelligence operation, or something Russian internal resistance movement did on its own?

In any case, another major embarrassment for FSB and Russia's police and security services.

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