Ukraine 22: Anyone else holding their breath?

[a free shadow]

nothing too useful was here

[Maithanet]

Trump retaking the WH and completely abandoning NATO would certainly help Russia, but even in a scenario where the US is doing very little to help (ie less than they are for Ukraine), the EU states aren't going to take that approach.  Much of Europe (Germany in particular) sees that the previous security assumptions that the US will always be there and Russia is a friendly actor are completely wrong. I fully expect military expenditures and planning for a war with Russia will increase in Europe between now and 2025. 

Even in a scenario where the US goes full isolationist AND Russia is somehow able to extract themselves from the Ukraine war by the end of 2023, I struggle to see how Russia could win a war with even a portion of NATO in the next decade.  Even if we somehow assume that the western European powers provide only financial/equipment resources rather than combat troops (which I doubt), Poland + the Baltics + Czech Republic + Finland would be more than Russia can handle.  And I feel confident that all of those countries are not going to simply ignore a Russian invasion of a NATO ally.  And that's still leaving out a bunch of other capable NATO militaries in Eastern Europe. 

No one in Europe is going to tolerate Russia gobbling up nations on their eastern border.  Because Putin/Russia has clearly demonstrated that he is going to continue until he is stopped.  Fortunately, the Ukrainians are doing that very thing. 

[Wilbur]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

...Much of Europe (Germany in particular) sees that the previous security assumptions that the US will always be there and Russia is a friendly actor are completely wrong. I fully expect military expenditures and planning for a war with Russia will increase in Europe between now and 2025... 

And here is the Perun take on the relative military strength of the EU, to underpin your point.

 

[Maithanet]

13 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

And here is the Perun take on the relative military strength of the EU, to underpin your point

 

Yes, I already watched that, it did indeed inform my thinking on the matter.  Even if you make a colossal assumption that both the US AND Western Europe are not committing any combat troops, Russia is going to find itself outmatched by only the anti-Russia wing of NATO (namely all the NATO countries in Eastern/Northern Europe minus Hungary).

[ThinkerX]

15% of Russia's railway cars out of commission. Airplanes flying literally on a wing and a prayer. Without parts - which Russia cannot manufacture or obtain from elsewhere, at least in adequate numbers, well...lessee here...

It took, call it six months, for Russia to reach this level. Let's run this out another six months at the current rate (which might be optimistic).

Another six months - Spring 2023 - see's 30% of Russia's railway cars out of service - railway cars vital to moving the goods needed to put food on tables and keeping manufacturing plants of all sorts up and running. By itself, that is an economic catastrophe...that may be without precedent. Food riots? Mass protests? 

Another six months and Russia is unlikely to have a significant airline or air cargo capability. That pretty much ends any form of 'rapid response.'

Run those trends out for a full year...and would Russia even still be a cohesive country?

 

 

 

[Arakasi]

They’re using all sorts of equipment from the 70s/80s. Even presuming they get out of Ukraine they’re not going to just find a bunch more old stuff. They’ll have to actually manufacture stuff. Shells and tanks I’ll give them but good luck with anything advanced.

[JGP]

This is interesting. 

 

 

[Werthead]

Medvedev has said that Russia has another reason for fighting in Ukraine: it is fighting Satan himself.

Which, y'know, it's good to clear that up.

[Jace, Extat]

34 minutes ago, JGP said:

This is interesting. 

 

 

I fucking LOVE China. Pragmatism just gets me all stirred up. 

That being said; we should nuke Bejing tomorrow. "We are finally doing something about the Uyghurs"- or whatever. The real threat is that Xi, and his successors who have been educated to a standard of comprehension regarding complex and hardwired realities of escalation dominance because they live in a society that functions and doesn't purposely import mental invalids into their political class, will wrap world security (from nukes) into a very safe and warm authoritarian blanket swaddled by China after that world feels abandoned by feckless American/European morons who should be stroking each other off while watching some peasants tortured to death instead of impacting strategic circumstance with their imbicilic notions of moderate response to existential peril.

[SeanF]

Ukraine has a two year window to win, before Trump gets back (potentially).

[Kalbear]

20 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Ukraine has a two year window to win, before Trump gets back (potentially).

Realistically shorter than that. It is going to be very difficult to get funding through in the next two years from the US. Possibly Europe can make up for that to an extent, but only some - and that won't last forever either. 

[JGP]

 

23 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Ukraine has a two year window to win, before Trump gets back (potentially).

Isn't it kind of on the table these mid terms a bit? 

It'd be nice to see China speaking up against Iran and North Korea supplying Russia too, that'd be cool.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

So Jace is now taking Chinese lessons at a community college to communicate with our new global overlords. Smart move.

[Jace, Extat]

我是美国人

[A Horse Named Stranger]

11 minutes ago, Fire and Jace said:

我是美国人

Don't worry, that's nothing a short trip to a Chinese re-education camp can't fix.

[Darzin]

8 hours ago, Fire and Jace said:

我是美国人

第一课. 你是外国人. Everyone knows there are two places Zhong gou and the  Waigou  where people have, big noses and eat hamburgers everyday with a fork and knife and have unstable politics. But maybe if you study China's harminous society you as a foriegn friend can take back some advices for your own country. Such as guns and about coronavirus, China is so safe don't you know it?

China is a peacful country with more than 5000 years of history I think foreign friends can learn a lot but maybe China is too mysterious. 

[Jace, Extat]

7 hours ago, Darzin said:

第一课. 你是外国人. Everyone knows there are two places Zhong gou and the  Waigou  where people have, big noses and eat hamburgers everyday with a fork and knife and have unstable politics. But maybe if you study China's harminous society you as a foriegn friend can take back some advices for your own country. Such as guns and about coronavirus, China is so safe don't you know it?

China is a peacful country with more than 5000 years of history I think foreign friends can learn a lot but maybe China is too mysterious. 

I'll be your white shedevil. I still have interests here, but America surrendered its unconditional sway over me when it decided treason is, like, just a thang.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

3 hours ago, Fire and Jace said:

I'll be your white shedevil. I still have interests here, but America surrendered its unconditional sway over me when it decided treason is, like, just a thang.

现在我有点角质

 

[Jace, Extat]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

现在我有点角质

 

[Wilbur]

Canadian Expeditionary Training Force, Avant!