Ukraine 22: Anyone else holding their breath?

[Kalbear]

Crossposting from the US politics - the house being at best very slightly controlled by R almost certainly means funding will continue at the similar pace it has been for Ukraine, which should be super welcoming news.

[broken one]

Call me paranoid but I'll believe when I see blue-yellow flag in Kherson city.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

5 minutes ago, broken one said:

Call me paranoid but I'll believe when I see blue-yellow flag in Kherson city.

Ukrainian officials are also rightfully, IMHO, skeptical. 

[The Anti-Targ]

7 hours ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

He said that Kherson would never return to Ukraine in his lifetime. I guess he was right in a roundabout sort of way. 

I wouldn't say roundabout. I would say about as direct as it is possible to be.

[Makk]

If this is a trap it is a very risky one. The Russian forces, especially those to the northern Kherson front, are going to get pummeled while they retreat. There has already been a confirmed breakthrough at Snihurivka just as the retreat started. The Ukranians are ready for this. I now think it is a genuine retreat and Kherson city will soon be abandoned as well.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Makk said:

I now think it is a genuine retreat and Kherson city will soon be abandoned as well.

Balance of probabilities suggests yes but I can understand Ukraine being cautious.  A lot of nasty things can still happen before their flag returns to the city.

[Wilbur]

You know that the "unnamed leader" has to be Joe Biden, right?

Vladimir Putin Set To Skip G20 Summit After Learning Another World Leader Will 'Slap Him In The Face' Over War With Ukraine (msn.com)

Uncle Joe plans to drive up Jalan Raya Sesetan in his Corvette, bitch-slap Putin, and then ride off for a hearty bowl of ice cream.  Job done, let's go home on the Dark Brandon Express.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

You know that the "unnamed leader" has to be Joe Biden, right?

Vladimir Putin Set To Skip G20 Summit After Learning Another World Leader Will 'Slap Him In The Face' Over War With Ukraine (msn.com)

Uncle Joe plans to drive up Jalan Raya Sesetan in his Corvette, bitch-slap Putin, and then ride off for a hearty bowl of ice cream.  Job done, let's go home on the Dark Brandon Express.

This is why I voted for him. For him to bitch slap fascists.

[Werthead]

Apparently there was some wobbling behind the scenes with unnamed countries "unhappy" with Ukraine ruling out talks with Russia under all circumstances until either Putin resigned or Russia unilaterally returned to its 2014 borders. I suspect those countries were likely Hungary and Italy, and maybe Germany and France had concerns as well. The US advised Ukraine to back down from those positions without actually committing to any political concessions (i.e. the US still doesn't believe Ukraine should negotiate or concede on territory, especially post-February 23rd changes) to simply shore up "jittery" allies and Ukraine has now done that, opening the possibility of renewed negotiations (though without preconditions).

That may also be contributing to the current messaging about Kherson, with a surprisingly large amount of media noting it as a sensible and strategic move by Putin rather than, as Ukraine's internal messaging is putting it, a humiliating defeat.

[Maithanet]

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

That may also be contributing to the current messaging about Kherson, with a surprisingly large amount of media noting it as a sensible and strategic move by Putin rather than, as Ukraine's internal messaging is putting it, a humiliating defeat.

I mean, it's both.  But the humiliating defeat is the one to focus on if you are on Ukraine's side.  The "sensible retreat" is the perspective of a detached third party. 

[SeanF]

On 11/9/2022 at 5:01 PM, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Crossposting from the US politics - the house being at best very slightly controlled by R almost certainly means funding will continue at the similar pace it has been for Ukraine, which should be super welcoming news.

If Trump had won in 2020, Putin would have rolled over Ukraine.

[Arakasi]

Well we’ll see how sensible this retreat is depending on how many men/material they have to abandon because of the difficulty of retreating over the Dnipro. Probably will get most of the people out but I imagine heavy equipment is sol. They’ll probably have enough time to properly destroy it instead of abandoning it. I recall reading something about them blowing up ammo dumps.

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

If Trump had won in 2020, Putin would have rolled over Ukraine.

Not necessarily. A lot more Ukrainians would have died, Ukrainian counteroffensives wouldn't be this successful, and Ukraine would today control less of its territory.

However, a different outcome of US presidential elections wouldn't have changed Russian military's logistical problems, incompetence of its officers, outdatedness of its doctrine and equipment, or poor training of its troops. Nor would it have changed the aid from countries like Poland and Finland, which have their own self-interested reasons to help Ukraine defend itself. Let's remember that the battles of Kyiv and Kharkhiv were won by Ukraine before significant amount of US military aid came in.

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, Arakasi said:

Well we’ll see how sensible this retreat is depending on how many men/material they have to abandon because of the difficulty of retreating over the Dnipro. Probably will get most of the people out but I imagine heavy equipment is sol. They’ll probably have enough time to properly destroy it instead of abandoning it. I recall reading something about them blowing up ammo dumps.

Supposedly, tons of equipment and ammo were found in Chornobaivka.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Gorn said:

Not necessarily. A lot more Ukrainians would have died, Ukrainian counteroffensives wouldn't be this successful, and Ukraine would today control less of its territory.

However, a different outcome of US presidential elections wouldn't have changed Russian military's logistical problems, incompetence of its officers, outdatedness of its doctrine and equipment, or poor training of its troops. Nor would it have changed the aid from countries like Poland and Finland, which have their own self-interested reasons to help Ukraine defend itself. Let's remember that the battles of Kyiv and Kharkhiv were won by Ukraine before significant amount of US military aid came in.

It would have, however, changed significantly things like US intel being passed easily to Ukraine, the coordination that was happening for months, the US encouraging Germany and France to also help out, the actual sanctioning (which would likely have meant Russia could have been continuing to supply their troops easily). 

The early battles were close enough that things like lack of intel, lack of LAWs and drones, even lack of Starlink could have tilted it the other way. The plan for Hostomel for instance was effectively revealed weeks before it actually occurred, which is why Ukraine was able to move certain forces outside of it and hit the Russian forces when they landed. 

[Gorn]

5 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

It would have, however, changed significantly things like US intel being passed easily to Ukraine, the coordination that was happening for months, the US encouraging Germany and France to also help out, the actual sanctioning (which would likely have meant Russia could have been continuing to supply their troops easily). 

The early battles were close enough that things like lack of intel, lack of LAWs and drones, even lack of Starlink could have tilted it the other way. The plan for Hostomel for instance was effectively revealed weeks before it actually occurred, which is why Ukraine was able to move certain forces outside of it and hit the Russian forces when they landed. 

True, intel and Starlink were a significant early help. Javelins and Stingers were also helpful, but a lot of those also came from Europe, and Ukraine had plenty of Stugnas and Iglas of its own. I'm not aware of any US drones early on, at the beginning it was all Bayraktars and local Ukrainian designs. And I don't think any of the things you listed had any effect on, say, semi-surrounded Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade rolfstomping an entire Russian tank army at Konotop and Sumy while using mostly old Soviet and local Ukrainian gear.

US aid wasn't decisive in stopping Russia, Ukrainian resistance was. Afghanistan's army (or Iraqi army in Mosul in 2014) had same or greater amounts of aid.

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, Gorn said:

True, intel and Starlink were a significant early help. Javelins and Stingers were also helpful, but a lot of those also came from Europe, and Ukraine had plenty of Stugnas and Iglas of its own. I'm not aware of any US drones early on, at the beginning it was all Bayraktars and local Ukrainian designs. And I don't think any of the things you listed had any effect on, say, semi-surrounded Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade rolfstomping an entire Russian tank army at Konotop and Sumy while using mostly old Soviet and local Ukrainian gear.

They did have a fair amount of effect. Especially the intel and communication. Mostly, they had an effect because if the Russians had succeeded in decapitating Kyiv those battles become significantly more moot. 

4 minutes ago, Gorn said:

US aid wasn't decisive in stopping Russia, Ukrainian resistance was. Afghanistan's army (or Iraqi army in Mosul in 2014) had same or greater amounts of aid.

I think all of it was decisive, because Ukraine was pretty close to losing at several spots and could have easily had things go very differently were it not for a few small factors here and there. The US wasn't the single thing that mattered and Ukrainian ability was the most important thing, but I don't know how Ukraine wins without US support and US pushing on European allies to provide a lot more support. PRobably the biggest deal, IMO, was getting Germany and France to sign on to do anything given how reluctant they were; I can't see Boris Johnson being able to push around most of the EU the way Biden was able to. 

[Arakasi]

Not sure on the veracity of the video there but apparently the gist seems to be that there was some sort of deal to let the Russians retreat and Ukraine said screw that and are mass shelling the river crossings. Could be some significant surrender numbers in the next few days.

[Maithanet]

I'm very skeptical that anyone would "agree" not to shell the retreating Russians. Allowing a trapped army to escape is military malpractice.  

[Makk]

28 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

Not sure on the veracity of the video there but apparently the gist seems to be that there was some sort of deal to let the Russians retreat and Ukraine said screw that and are mass shelling the river crossings. Could be some significant surrender numbers in the next few days.

I saw that part of the video on Reporting From Ukraine and was just about to post it

 

This looks like one of the worst retreats in history. Perhaps using freshly mobilized troops to hold the line until the main force crossed the river wasn't the best idea.