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Ukraine 22: Anyone else holding their breath?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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Ever since Putin ordered 25,000 troops into an area Russia couldn't effectively supply it has always seemed like a win/win situation for the Ukranians. Either Russian troops would gradually attrition down or they would have to pull back letting Ukraine liberate Kherson and gain an important strategical position. Somehow Russia seems to be turning it into a DOUBLE win for Ukraine giving them both upsides at once.

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An arty commander I follow said artillery have 4 kinds of firing styles - 

1. Harassment

2. Suppression

3. Destruction

4. Annihilation

Per reports Ukraine went from stage 1(probably to gauge if there was any xounterbattery fire) to 4 in a blink. 

This is going to be a very gruesome display of massed firepower.

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1 hour ago, Arakasi said:

They have AK-47s. They have old tanks. They have howitzers and plenty of shells. That’s about it.

Given the horrific casualties in Ukraine, and the fact (?) that the majority (?) of those recruits did not want to be in the military this time around, it becomes legit to ask which way those weapons will be aimed, and what the other side (Russia State Security?) will be able to muster. 

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39 minutes ago, JGP said:

 

Hmn.

 

Sound all around. I like it.

Well.the WSJ article actually says the ammo won't go to Ukraine. Apparently it is to replace US-made ammo from the US's stockpiles that has been or will be sent to Ukraine.

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There seems to be a feeling among Ukrainian commentators that the Russian plan/"trap" was to basically fortify the Dnipro to prevent Ukraine from crossing and then attack NE out of Zaporizhzhia, possibly to cut off the Donbas. That's why Ukraine has been keeping up the pressure all along the Zaporizhzhia front since the counter-offensive started two months ago.

Cutting off the Donbas would give Russia flexibility to declare victory on those lines or even engage in high-level diplomacy to secure Ukrainian recognition of the Donbas and Crimea, possibly in return for withdrawal from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. However, this plan appears to have evaporated because the forces - particularly heavy equipment - Russia needed to withdraw intact from Kherson appears to have gone up in smoke. They may be trying to make up for that with Iranian supplies, but there is a debate on whether Iran can supply the quantities they need.

There now seems to be some speculation in Ukraine that the extra/third battle group Ukraine possibly has available for offensive operations (spearheaded by the 10,000 troops recently trained in the UK and thousands more in Poland and the Baltics, minus the reinforcements sent to the Belarusian frontier) could go on the offensive in Zaporizhzhia.

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Whew -- really?  O please, yes!

Could this actually be a week in which decent people can have some joy?  This, inflation seeming to have hit peak, our midterms giving us the "Never has not turning as out as bad as we thought felt so good."

Somehow, the three feel related.  Though I'm probably centering, wrongly, the US here?

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I was wondering only a week or two ago whether things had finally come almost to a halt.  Russia was back grinding its way marginally forward around Bakhmut, while there wasn't much else going.

But Ukraine clearly had a strategy around Kherson city.  They knew Russia's position on the west side of the Dnipro was not sustainable.  They just had to be patient.  Congrats.  Its a big moment, which have been in development for months now.

I wonder will Ukraine do something surprising next or will the focus now return to Donetsk and Luhansk.  But that's a question for another day.

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At least one Russian TV reporter has gone to Full Snark mode, pointing out that if he supports the Defence Minister's decision to leave Kherson, he's agreeing with the territorial violation of Russian soil, which carries a prison sentence, but if he disagrees with it, he's disagreeing with a governmental decision which also carries a prison sentence. So he's just shutting the fuck up about it.

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2 hours ago, Zorral said:

This, inflation seeming to have hit peak, our midterms giving us the "Never has not turning as out as bad as we thought felt so good."

Somehow, the three feel related.

Well, like Biden, I find it quite interesting they waited til right after the midterms to pull out.

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2 minutes ago, DMC said:

like Biden, I find it quite interesting they waited til right after the midterms to pull out.

Indeed.  As finding it quite interesting "They" / Media waiting until then to write big stories about inflation starting to ease. -- that it was happening, more jobs were being had and the economy had grown.

Nor does Hannity have any idea as to where the idea there was going to be a red tsunami came from, or who pushed it.

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