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Ukraine 22: Anyone else holding their breath?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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15 hours ago, Werthead said:

The "National Liberation Movement" held a march in Moscow yesterday calling for a nuclear attack on Washington, DC.

Presumably they wouldn't be standing in Moscow if that was to happen (and certainly wouldn't for very long).

The main concern I would have is someone sympathetic to those extremists being in a position to actually launch a nuke. If the country starts to fall apart at the seams politically and militarily some subversive managing to fire off a nuke possibly starts to become a scenario that everyone outside of Russia should maybe start wargaming.

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On 11/13/2022 at 4:45 AM, Arakasi said:
Apparently Ukraine isn’t about to let up. Amphibious assault on the Kinburn peninsula in progress.

I've been digging a bit. Looks like Ukraine Southern Command announced their intention to liberate Kinburn on Saturday. Then last night there was footage of Ukrainian maritime special forces operating in that specific area emerging (unknown when the footage was taken).

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1591909290532810752

Given Ukraine's usual operational security, and clampdown on information; then either... this happened a few days ago, and they now feel secure enough to leak footage (but none of settlements being liberated) or it's a feint. Or, of course, Russia has something specific and valuable there (radar? missile batteries?) and it's a raid to neutralise that, but not hold any ground.

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The Ukrainian Defense department posted that video on Twitter 12 hours ago with the caption "Beautiful Dnipro." 

It could be a feint, but with Russia reinforcing Melitopol, I think that Ukraine is once again forcing Russia to make hard choices about where to deploy its troops: ignore the Ukrainians that can outflank the Dnipro bank defenses in Kherson or keep reinforcing your territory in Zaporizhzhia. 

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Russians claim they had prevented the landing but it does not have to be true, of course.

Since the peninsula is isolated from Ukrainian controlled territory, I wonder if they intend to hold the ground. Maybe it was meant to be temporary - clean the place of Russians (as they launch missles and send drones from there) to secure some other operations planned for near future, then retreat to the western bank of Dnipro (?)

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Apparently a number of western journalists, mainly CNN and Sky News, had their press credit removed because they reported from Kherson against Ukraine policy about reporting from a dangerous area. Which is weird, because weren't at times journalists present in fighting zones from the start of the war? I think it may have to do with the new wave of operations and Ukraine was worried that the journalists were going to accidentally reveal some of their movements.

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13 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The main concern I would have is someone sympathetic to those extremists being in a position to actually launch a nuke. If the country starts to fall apart at the seams politically and militarily some subversive managing to fire off a nuke possibly starts to become a scenario that everyone outside of Russia should maybe start wargaming.

Who knew that Call of Duty 4 would nail this all the way back 2007?

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4 hours ago, Loge said:

From the maps and aerial views, the terrain does not look suitable for battle tanks. And it is in reach of the Ukrainian artillery, so maybe it's possible to take and hold it.

 

ETA: I don't know this guy but he seems to think Ukraine can take Kinburn peninsula:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1591612984127799302

 

Telenko is a solid analyst and outstanding in the field of logistics. He predicted Russia's operation would be fatally compromised because of the antiquated way that Russia carries out resupply, fairly accurately.

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6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Telenko is a solid analyst and outstanding in the field of logistics. He predicted Russia's operation would be fatally compromised because of the antiquated way that Russia carries out resupply, fairly accurately.

I would also say that Telenko's Twitter feed is getting increasingly cranky about some rather niche issues and IMO his analysis has been less valuable the past few months.  I cannot comment on this issue in particular. 

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7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I would also say that Telenko's Twitter feed is getting increasingly cranky about some rather niche issues and IMO his analysis has been less valuable the past few months.  I cannot comment on this issue in particular. 

Yeah, that's why I said he was outstanding in logistics and only solid elsewhere. His analysis outside of his specialist field has been a bit more hit and miss recently, not sure why.

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7 hours ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

The Ukrainian Defense department posted that video on Twitter 12 hours ago with the caption "Beautiful Dnipro." 

It could be a feint, but with Russia reinforcing Melitopol, I think that Ukraine is once again forcing Russia to make hard choices about where to deploy its troops: ignore the Ukrainians that can outflank the Dnipro bank defenses in Kherson or keep reinforcing your territory in Zaporizhzhia. 

I just find it strange that a side known for its excellent OPSEC is now practically shouting at the Russians: "LOOK! WE ARE DOING AN AMPHIBIOUS LANDING! WE WILL ATTACK YOU HERE! LOOK AT THE VIDEO OF US LANDING OUR TROOPS HERE!"

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47 minutes ago, Gorn said:

I just find it strange that a side known for its excellent OPSEC is now practically shouting at the Russians: "LOOK! WE ARE DOING AN AMPHIBIOUS LANDING! WE WILL ATTACK YOU HERE! LOOK AT THE VIDEO OF US LANDING OUR TROOPS HERE!"

They did that with Kherson and then retook Kharkiv Oblast. I think it's optimistic to think it might work a second time though.

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20 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

Jeez. There are some early reports that Oleshky and Hola Prystan - on the left bank of the Dnipro across from Kherson - have been liberated.

What's the source?

 

There seems to be a lot of (massively) over optimistic reports around today.

From Kinburn being partially liberated through a massive AFU offensive pushing South from Hulyaipole up to Kreminna, Rubizhne and Severodonetsk being evacuated ahead of a Russian withdrawal.

 

I'm not believing any of them at this stage

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Even with all the incompetence we have seen from the Russians in the past 9 months, if they allow the Ukrainians to cross the Dnipro and just keep pushing south, that would be the biggest failure so far.  The Dnipro is a huge river - wide and deep.  It should be more than enough of a physical barrier to allow the Russians to control the south side with comparatively little forces. 

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This is pretty much all I've found

Bringing that all together with the stuff I mentioned above, it reads to me more like Ukraine trying to instil panic in the retreating Russians in the hopes that they retreat further than necessary and cede ground.
Let's face it, it worked in the first big push up around Kharkiv, and may work a second time if the troops there are of the new, unwilling and untrained variety.

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19 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

This is pretty much all I've found

Bringing that all together with the stuff I mentioned above, it reads to me more like Ukraine trying to instil panic in the retreating Russians in the hopes that they retreat further than necessary and cede ground.
Let's face it, it worked in the first big push up around Kharkiv, and may work a second time if the troops there are of the new, unwilling and untrained variety.

A secure bridgehead at Olehsky would be a huge win for the good guys.  :) 

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Another rumor (without visual confirmation so far) is that Nova Kakhovka, on the left bank of Dnieper, has also been liberated.

It seems that the Russians thought of the Dnieper river as some magical barrier that doesn't need to be defended with, you know, actual troops.

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