Jump to content

Ukraine 22: Anyone else holding their breath?


Ser Scot A Ellison

Recommended Posts

35 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

The most important and damaging weapon that NATO could deliver is the longer-range missile launch systems. I believe they're called ATACMS and are something that Ukraine has been requesting over and over again. HIMARS allows Ukraine to outdistance effective Russian artillery range and hit with precision important targets near the battle lines, but ATACMS  would allow a tripling of that range and be able to hit almost any logistical target in the theater. With it the train system for Russia could be crippled, almost any CNC targets could be taken out, and Russia appears to have no real defenses against missile attacks worth a damn - so far there are zero reports of any HIMARS being stopped, as an example. 

The ATACMS are apparently quite a bit easier to shoot down than the GMLRS, they are much bigger, larger heat signature, and in the air for longer. They are also much more expensive so you are hitting fewer targets. While it would be nice to be able to hit Crimea, there are logical explanations why they are not provided. This video speculates about that and even suggests there is acting pretending that the US gets to say, "No no, you can't have those, see Putin we are not escalating", when it is not even advantageous to supply them. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm not sure if he means that this IS what Poland is doing or what he expects Poland will do.  But regardless, it makes sense and would serve to give Poland more leverage to increase support for Ukraine. 

Just when you think Russia can't top their previous mistakes...

I wonder where it was shot from. Even demanding Russia cease all missile launches from surrounding or closer locations could have a big effect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A former US NATO official on the BBC saying that Russia needs to explain and apologise, otherwise NATO will have to consider a "proportional response" (presumably lobbing 2 cruise missiles back at Russian targets in Ukraine).

Some indications that Hungary might be looking at distancing itself from Russia. Orban reportedly very annoyed that gas supplies to Hungary seem to have been cut by Russia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One Polish source saying they think the missiles might have been detonated in mid-air over Ukraine by Ukrainian AA fire. However, the ballistic trajectory of the missiles suggests they were overshooting into Poland anyway.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Hopefully this will light a fire under NATO to hurry up and get Ukraine the best available anti-missile systems and plenty of them.  I have some sympathy for not handing over potentially offensive/escalatory weapons, but missile defenses seems like the opposite of that.  That reluctance has allowed Russia to kill a great many Ukrainian civilians.

AFAIK Anti-Air-Weapons are at the top of Ukraine's wish list atm, not airplanes. Sure, you can toss in a plane or two. The problem with planes is, that there are differences between the Eastern Jets Ukraine pilots are familiar with, and more modern western jets (avionics). So they would probably need a couple of months to train on them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some suggestions that Chinese have done some backchannel negotiations and gotten further assurances from Russia that there will be no use of WMD in Ukraine.

The real question is if, and to what extent, China and India will join the G20 statement demanding an end to the war in the statement tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

AFAIK Anti-Air-Weapons are at the top of Ukraine's wish list atm, not airplanes. Sure, you can toss in a plane or two. The problem with planes is, that there are differences between the Eastern Jets Ukraine pilots are familiar with, and more modern western jets (avionics). So they would probably need a couple of months to train on them.

Russians are said to be running out of cruise missles and, as it was stated above, Ukrainians are already able to take down most of what's coming with systems they recieved. I think they will get some more of them anyway.

There were some dicussions in USA about training Ukrainian pilots on F-16/F-15, so why not start doing it now, couple of months is sooner than never (if is not happening already). 

Just a wild speculation, but it might be possible to find some US airforce veterans of Ukrainian descent...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Moderate response from Poland so far. They are "debating" activating Article 4 but had not done so yet (and 4 is just a NATO consultation process anyway), and the Polish government is talking to several key allies. Duda has spoken to Biden and Zelensky directly.

Early analysis of the wreckage at the crash site suggests it might be an S300, which is interesting. Russia has been using S300s in ground-attack mode for some time, but Ukraine also deploys the S300 in an air defence role. Given the range limitations - S300s only have around a 100-mile range in such a mode - it might be more likely this was a Ukrainian ground defence missile that went awry.

That is fully dependent on it being an S300 though. Some markings and shapes from the debris is suggestive, but not conclusive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

The real question is if, and to what extent, China and India will join the G20 statement demanding an end to the war in the statement tomorrow.

Doesn't mean much. Depending on how vaguely it's worded, even Lavrov might say this.

 

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Some indications that Hungary might be looking at distancing itself from Russia. Orban reportedly very annoyed that gas supplies to Hungary seem to have been cut by Russia.

I heard it was cut due to Russia bombing a power station that was powering the gas flow towards Hungary - that wasn't the goal obviously, it was to disable the network in the area for whatever strategic reason, but of course it had that nasty collateral damage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

I heard it was cut due to Russia bombing a power station that was powering the gas flow towards Hungary - that wasn't the goal obviously, it was to disable the network in the area for whatever strategic reason, but of course it had that nasty collateral damage.

Strategic reason, I think I can help you out with that.

They are targeting the Ukrainian infrastructure in an attempt to end the war. Explanation follows.

Wars end through negotiations, usually powered/forced by domestic pressure. For Putin the domestic pressure is still manageable. We are not at October 1917 discontent levels, but the sanctions do bite, and with coffins returning and news of their military failure spreading, we could eventually reach that point. 

Ukraine has a high morale among it's population, they are firmly supportive of the military action. Battlefield news are also fairly good. So what do you do to break morale and force Ukraine to seek negotiations. You increase the civil populations suffering to the point, where they say we can't go on. End this war, even if we lose territory.

That'S pretty much what's going on, so bombing power plants/stations/etc. with the cold winter coming, this is gonna be a very hard winter for Ukrainians. I mean, we have a certain part of the population that wants to end the sanctions, because life got more dificult/expensive. Now, think of how much worse things are in Ukraine.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The missile strike is probably more driven by discontent at home. The pro-war crowd isn't happy with the recent losses in Kharkiv and Kherson and are calling for nuclear strikes against both Ukraine and NATO. Putin seems to think he has to give them something. He has to know by now that he won't break Ukraine's morale. If anything, he can hope for the West to falter and stop supporting Ukraine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Loge said:

The missile strike is probably more driven by discontent at home. The pro-war crowd isn't happy with the recent losses in Kharkiv and Kherson and are calling for nuclear strikes against both Ukraine and NATO. Putin seems to think he has to give them something. He has to know by now that he won't break Ukraine's morale. If anything, he can hope for the West to falter and stop supporting Ukraine.

I'd add Putin may also expect that another wave of Ukrainians will move to the UE this winter. This, together with growing prices, may increase discontent and weariness of populations and decrease support for Ukraine.

Last week I was sitting at a bus stop when and old lady came and sat to take some rest. She started talking to me about energy prices and how dastardly nation Ukrainians were. And that they would thank us for help cutting our throats. And that she's glad she would be dead soon so she would not experience this thanks. Unlike me and my daughter who was sitting there with me.

I felt temptation to tell the lady that if she would not stop talking bullshit something bad may happen to her before her natural death. When the bus finally arrived we got on it with the speed of light.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are the Russians who are demanding Nukes on Washington and Kyiv and several points between a death cult or something? Or do they imagine a Russian first strike on several countries will simply be met with a "Sorry Mr. Putin we won't try to foil your brilliant and totally justified plans again"?

Totally insane I guess, the only question is whether its with a death wish or without.

Though it is a pretty good depopulation plan if that's part of the intention, and I think would cause net global cooling, so also... climate change mitigation?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Biden suggesting that the missile is unlikely to have come from Russia, due to what they know about its trajectory. I don't know what that means if true. Could it actually have been a wild missile misfire from Ukraine? Could it have come from Belarus? Or will it actually be revealed to have come from Russia and this is an attempt to de-escalate the situation?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...