A Horse Named Stranger Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Check Werthead'S post like 5 posts above yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken one Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Just now, Heartofice said: Biden suggesting that the missile is unlikely to have come from Russia, due to what they know about its trajectory. I don't know what that means if true. Could it actually have been a wild missile misfire from Ukraine? Could it have come from Belarus? Or will it actually be revealed to have come from Russia and this is an attempt to de-escalate the situation? Most probable explanation is that it were Ukrainian S-300 which went astray. It is soviet product after all, this happens from time to time. There is some important nod of energy infrastructure 6 km from Polish border, Russian Kh-101 missle/missles were probably aimed at it. Ukrainians luanched the S-300 and something went wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorn Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: Are the Russians who are demanding Nukes on Washington and Kyiv and several points between a death cult or something? Or do they imagine a Russian first strike on several countries will simply be met with a "Sorry Mr. Putin we won't try to foil your brilliant and totally justified plans again"? Totally insane I guess, the only question is whether its with a death wish or without. Though it is a pretty good depopulation plan if that's part of the intention, and I think would cause net global cooling, so also... climate change mitigation? They genuinely believe that the West is too weak and wimpy to retaliate in equal measure, and that the reaction to a limited first strike would be surrender. This is why any show of weakness with Russia is dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Gorn said: They genuinely believe that the West is too weak and wimpy to retaliate in equal measure, and that the reaction to a limited first strike would be surrender. This is why any show of weakness with Russia is dangerous. So how's that premise working out in Ukraine? I suppose I could post the obligatory Monty Python reference to the black knight here but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 5 hours ago, maarsen said: So how's that premise working out in Ukraine? I suppose I could post the obligatory Monty Python reference to the black knight here but.... To be fair, those Russians calling for nukes probably think Ukraine is just an upstart breakaway from the motherland, so of course they will fight as hard as Russia. That the west is not sending their own troops to die defending Ukraine proves to them that the west is weak, sending hardware to help Ukraine is the cowards way of helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 51 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: To be fair, those Russians calling for nukes probably think Ukraine is just an upstart breakaway from the motherland, so of course they will fight as hard as Russia. That the west is not sending their own troops to die defending Ukraine proves to them that the west is weak, sending hardware to help Ukraine is the cowards way of helping. Russia having to rely on a much smaller and poorer country like Iran to restock its arms is also, oddly, absolutely fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 This should be obvious, but I don't think it's been stated in this thread. Iran is definitely supplying Russia with weapons, but this is really totally dissimilar from NATO (and non-NATO) support for Ukraine. Iran is selling these weapons, which means Russia needs to find the money to purchase them. In addition, Iran does not particularly care about Ukraine, but they care very deeply about the protests going on within their own borders and the decades long conflict with the Saudis for regional influence. Iran isn't going to sell any drones or missiles to Russia if it thinks it needs them for its own wars, and its surplus inventory cannot last much longer. Iran can help fill in some of Russia's shortcomings in terms of drones and missiles, but they are at best a partial solution to some of the Russian military's shortages. The longer this war goes, the more Russian reliance on vast Soviet stores of basically every type of military equipment falls apart. Because the best stuff is used (and used up) first. Russia is running out of basically everything, and they don't have the economic and military backing of the strongest alliance in military history. Instead they have a few halfhearted allies willing to provide modest support, if the price is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorshach Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 12 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: Strategic reason, I think I can help you out with that. They are targeting the Ukrainian infrastructure in an attempt to end the war. Explanation follows. Wars end through negotiations, usually powered/forced by domestic pressure. For Putin the domestic pressure is still manageable. We are not at October 1917 discontent levels, but the sanctions do bite, and with coffins returning and news of their military failure spreading, we could eventually reach that point. Ukraine has a high morale among it's population, they are firmly supportive of the military action. Battlefield news are also fairly good. So what do you do to break morale and force Ukraine to seek negotiations. You increase the civil populations suffering to the point, where they say we can't go on. End this war, even if we lose territory. That'S pretty much what's going on, so bombing power plants/stations/etc. with the cold winter coming, this is gonna be a very hard winter for Ukrainians. I mean, we have a certain part of the population that wants to end the sanctions, because life got more dificult/expensive. Now, think of how much worse things are in Ukraine. I do believe this is part of Russia's reasoning, but it is in general a very flawed reasoning (another part, I think, is simply lashing out as a revenge for how the battle generally is going). There has been a few examples of countries trying to break morale by constant shelling of civilians, but as the board's favourite (?) military historian notes, evidence suggests the strategy is counterproductive and hardens rather than weakens the civilian population's resolve. Reasoning goes for air power, but I believe it's easily analogous to rocket shelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 I think the destruction of infrastructure and killing of civilians has the best chance of working on the nation's psyche when your army is moving the front lines towards the enemy nation's capital, not away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: I think the destruction of infrastructure and killing of civilians has the best chance of working on the nation's psyche when your army is moving the front lines towards the enemy nation's capital, not away from it. Employing air warfare doctrine from the 19th century (yes, the 19th!!!) In the year 2022 is the most Russian thing I've heard since they were last organizing penal battalions... in the year 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Fire and Jace said: Employing air warfare doctrine from the 19th century (yes, the 19th!!!) In the year 2022 is the most Russian thing I've heard since they were last organizing penal battalions... in the year 2022. I assume you are talking about using rockets such as the Congreve rockets used during the 1812 contretemps as I don't see any sign of the Russians dropping hand grenades from balloons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, maarsen said: I assume you are talking about using rockets such as the Congreve rockets used during the 1812 contretemps as I don't see any sign of the Russians dropping hand grenades from balloons. Psychologie Des Foules- Gustave Le Bon 1895 baby. Fear the futurist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, maarsen said: I assume you are talking about using rockets such as the Congreve rockets used during the 1812 contretemps as I don't see any sign of the Russians dropping hand grenades from balloons. Yet. The Russian logistics situation is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: I think the destruction of infrastructure and killing of civilians has the best chance of working on the nation's psyche when your army is moving the front lines towards the enemy nation's capital, not away from it. Yeah, but Winter is Coming as GRRM put it. It's one thing being without a roof, water, heating and electricity during summer, it's a whole different thing to do it during Russian/Ukrainian winter. The only somewhat brighter side of things is this: the Russian invading forces might be unhappy about their lack of supplies now. Judging by how Russia has handled those issues up to now, they will be at least as unhappy about the coming winter. Somehow I doubt the Russian Ministry of Defense will be able to deliver proper winter clothing to its troops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken one Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: The only somewhat brighter side of things is this: the Russian invading forces might be unhappy about their lack of supplies now. Judging by how Russia has handled those issues up to now, they will be at least as unhappy about the coming winter. Somehow I doubt the Russian Ministry of Defense will be able to deliver proper winter clothing to its troops. Yes, with all the logistics problems it seems Russian troops will be in considerably worse situation than Ukrainians, who fight on their own territory, with outside help from governments and citizen fundraising for winter clothing and equipment (I believe such donations matter too). I was thinking of camp fires both armies will burn during the winter, it will be visible from far away. I expect Russians, who are masters of procedures' neglecting, will get some spectacular ass whooping because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 12 hours ago, maarsen said: I assume you are talking about using rockets such as the Congreve rockets used during the 1812 contretemps as I don't see any sign of the Russians dropping hand grenades from balloons. Very small drones are being used to drop grenades by both sides, more successfully by the Ukrainians so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 In Ukraine related news. Girkin and two others were sentenced in absentia over the downing of MH17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 Russian troops are using shrink wrap for shelter now that the snow is falling… wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakasi Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 5 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Russian troops are using shrink wrap for shelter now that the snow is falling… wow. I have seen Facebook videos showing people making these things. However, the intent is a temporary survival shelter, a few days at most. That said, back in the van service days, I did have a couple of regular riders who were living in tents and abandoned busses, even in the middle of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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