Ukraine 22: Anyone else holding their breath?

[The Anti-Targ]

Sexual behaviour as a means to establish hierarchical dominance is not an uncommon behaviour...in bulls. In some cases a  bull will be, essentially, rogered to death by a herd of dominant bulls; typically when it is first introduced to an established herd.

Make of that what you will in respect of the Russian military.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

17 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Sexual behaviour as a means to establish hierarchical dominance is not an uncommon behaviour...in bulls. In some cases a  bull will be, essentially, rogered to death by a herd of dominant bulls; typically when it is first introduced to an established herd.

Make of that what you will in respect of the Russian military.

The Russian military clearly has so very many issues it’s difficult to pick where to start.  The only thing it has going for it, that sadly cannot be ignored, is mass.

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The Russian military clearly has so very many issues it’s difficult to pick where to start.  The only thing it has going for it, that sadly cannot be ignored, is mass.

Yes, but not inexhaustible amounts of it, and nothing like the Soviet days. Russia has actually been very considerate in sending in around a third of its easily-musterable forces to be destroyed, and is now presenting a second third of its forces to be destroyed as well (instead of sending them in together, where they might have given the Ukrainians more of a headache), at a moment when Ukraine is much better-equipped and has hugely more troops than it did at the start of the conflict.

Apparently in a meeting Putin said he'd sacrifice 20 million conscripts to deal with Ukraine, but it wasn't pointed out that losing even a quarter of that would probably send Russia's economy and political spheres into death spirals they could never recover from.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Werthead

[Maithanet]

Putin once famously said that the thing that scared him the most was "Demographics", because Russia is an exceptionally old country.  The average age in Russia is 39, which is even worse than it sounds because the life expectancy isn't great (there isn't a huge group of 80+ year olds throwing off the average).  Russia's population was 148 million in 1993, it was 145 million as of the beginning of 2022, and is less now due to continuing COVID+war deaths and people fleeing the draft. 

Russian propaganda always wants to portray Russia as this colossus, but it has fewer people (and vastly fewer men in the 18-40 range) than Bangladesh or the island of Java. 

[Week]

Scot*, could you please save the thread with a spinoff thread to carve continued conversation about abuse and sexual proclivities of the Russian army.

This is a great thread to read Wert and others actual updates and analysis of what's going on. This side conversation is nigh unreadable in that context.

*Not blaming you for the digression, you're just the man with the plan for new threads.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Week

[Wilbur]

An interesting new HIMARS target set has appeared in recent social media posts: railroad tank cars.  Yesterday and again today, I am seeing a lot of different videos of punctured and leaking tank cars sitting at rail heads, their contents draining out the sides.

[Kalnak the Magnificent]

Entirely fluff but the pic is so metal.

 

 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

30 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Entirely fluff but the pic is so metal.

Scrap metal to be precise, but point taken. 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

On the Luhansk Front, some sources are reporting that there is no communication between Svatove and Kreminna, with Ukraine likely having fire control over P66. There are also Russian reports of a Ukrainian breakthrough to the northwest of Svatove, but it remains to be seen how big of a push this is.  

[Which Tyler]

To back up @Matrim Fox Cauthon

 

 

I don't know how trustworthy this guy is, but people I do trust are retweeting him

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by Which Tyler

[The Anti-Targ]

It won't be too much longer before confirmed dead will be over 100K total.

[Which Tyler]

19 hours ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

On the Luhansk Front, some sources are reporting that there is no communication between Svatove and Kreminna, with Ukraine likely having fire control over P66. There are also Russian reports of a Ukrainian breakthrough to the northwest of Svatove, but it remains to be seen how big of a push this is.  

From the looks of things this morning, it was either a recon. unit, or a push that Russia repelled - or possibly Russians spooking at nothing much.
Early (Russian) reports suggested that Ukraine had reached Nyzhnia Duvanka on the Krasna River and P66 main road (an advance of 12 miles and game-changing importance) have reduced down to attacks on Kuzemivka, Kyslivka and Orlyanske - which were previously under artillery attack.
Of course, Ukraine weren't claiming the advance in the first place, and Russian sources don't seem to have panicked about being outflanked at all - so probably a nothing-burger.

 

 

Weather seems to be really closing in now; so we really can't expect any more big advances like we saw in September.
Given Russian issues with basic supplies, and their non-existence; I can't imagine this being a fun time to be a Russian soldier in Ukraine - but equally, Ukraine will likely be very limited in what they can do about it to actually take territory.
Suspicion is that Ukraine will want to establish fire control over the P66 (Svatove to Kreminina) and it's adjacent railway as a realistic goal; and actual manned control over 1-2 villages on that route as an optimistic goal, maybe mopping up a few villages on the P07 (Kupyansk to Svatove). Personally, I'm still impressed they tried to push on past the Zherebets river, and they may still have to retreat back to it (and are pretty close from having been pushed back there currently).
Kherson, of course, is anyone's guess - they might clear right along the Dnipro, they might hold current lines, they might up to the city / Inhulets R, or anything in between. The only thing I don't see happening, is Russia making any significant advances anywhere - so long as Ukraine continues receiving Western aid.

 

ETA: Looking again at that post about Russian and Ukrainian losses.
Russia sent 200k men in, in February.
60-70k of them are dead, deserted or captured.
70-80k of them are moderately or severely wounded, meaning a return to service somewhere between 3M and never.
50-60k of them lightly wounded, meaning to return to action measured in weeks.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Which Tyler

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

ETA: Looking again at that post about Russian and Ukrainian losses.
Russia sent 200k men in, in February.
60-70k of them are dead, deserted or captured.
70-80k of them are moderately or severely wounded, meaning a return to service somewhere between 3M and never.
50-60k of them lightly wounded, meaning to return to action measured in weeks.

I've seen some estimates that, based on rotations, Russia has never had more than 190,000 troops in Ukraine at any one time, but around 300,000 (maybe closer to 350k) have actually passed through the country, so it's maybe closer to a third rendered combat-incapable than half to two-thirds. Still a hell of a lot, and of course those figures are everyone, including non-combat engineers, medics etc.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Werthead

[SeanF]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I've seen some estimates that, based on rotations, Russia has never had more than 190,000 troops in Ukraine at any one time, but around 300,000 (maybe closer to 350k) have actually passed through the country, so it's maybe closer to a third rendered combat-incapable than half to two-thirds. Still a hell of a lot, and of course those figures are everyone, including non-combat engineers, medics etc.

That’s a terrible level of attrition.  People will study this campaign for the sheer level of self-defeating cruelty and incompetence that it entailed.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Wagner deputy chief of staff apparently killed by Ukraine SF

 

[Gorn]

The Black Sea fleet has been hit by drones in Sevastopol last night. Damage unknown, but it is claimed that a frigate and a few others were damaged. Some big explosions in any case.

 

 

[Loge]

It appears that stealing children isn't enough. The Russians are now stealing corpses, too:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/28/europe/potemkin-remains-removed-kherson-ukraine-russia-intl/index.html

[Gorn]

4 hours ago, Loge said:

It appears that stealing children isn't enough. The Russians are now stealing corpses, too:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/28/europe/potemkin-remains-removed-kherson-ukraine-russia-intl/index.html

Somehow, I don't think Ukrainians will regret the loss of a corpse of an 18-century Russian imperialist all that much.

[williamjm]

5 hours ago, Loge said:

It appears that stealing children isn't enough. The Russians are now stealing corpses, too:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/28/europe/potemkin-remains-removed-kherson-ukraine-russia-intl/index.html

Since they've been struggling to mobilise the living maybe they have moved on to the dead?

[Wilbur]

7 hours ago, Gorn said:

The Black Sea fleet has been hit by drones in Sevastopol last night. Damage unknown, but it is claimed that a frigate and a few others were damaged. Some big explosions in any case.

 

 

I guess this is a combined operations drone attack, as it was both aerial and seaborne drones.  The footage from the boat drones is wild, and this guy's narration is terrific.

I also like the references in the YT comments to the "kamikaze kayaks".  Best name of the conflict since "Tik-tok Troopers".

The Drive has some additional analysis of what this means in the larger sense if these are using BLOS guidance, particularly in the Persian Gulf.

Ukraine Unleashes Mass Kamikaze Drone Boat Attack On Russia's Black Sea Fleet Headquarters (thedrive.com)

Edited October 29, 2022 by Wilbur
kamikaze kayaks