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How does the iron bank eventually get back it's money they loaned ?


Tyrosh Lannister

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16 hours ago, Ring3r said:

The part I don't buy is the cooperation with Littlefinger.  Mopatis and Varys are confirmed to be working together, and Varys and littlefinger certainly seem to be somewhat opposed.

Varys and Littlefinger are also on the small council serving Robert. Just because they have a common master does not mean they are on the same side, nor does it mean the master is being honest with either of them.

Here is why I think Petyr is working for Illyrio:

Let's start with his backstory. Petyr shows up in Gulltown with his minor sinecure as a junior customs official and immediately starts bringing in ten times the revenue of the other more senior officials. This is simply not possible. Either Petyr is collecting more than is due or he is collecting the right amount and all the other collectors, including the chief, are either inept, corrupt or both. Either way, traders and captains and others are paying more than they normally are, but only when Petyr is on the job. At the very least, this should have produced howls of protest on the docks, or gotten Petyr a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea. Docks are dangerous places run by powerful men who don't take kindly to skinny little minor lordlings who come in and rock the boat, and Petyr has no money of his own, no guards, no men-at-arms, no nobody to protect him.

The only way this is feasible is he had to be bankrolled by someone wealthy enough to pad Petyr's receipts and pay off anyone who might start asking questions. But how do we know this is Illyrio? I turn your attention to the conversation in the dragon room. Notice how Varys just gets through telling Illyrio all of the secrets he knows about the high and mighty in the realm. He knows about the attempt on Bran and the dagger; he knows about Ned and the book; he knows about the plot to bring Margaery to King's Landing . . . He knows all this and more from his little birds (he is Master of Whispers, after all), but when it comes to Petyr, "the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing." So Petyr is the one blind spot in this entire spy network that Illyrio is funding, and yet he is not even slightly perturbed by this, even though they both know that Petyr is mucking with the finances of the realm they hope to usurp and he is directly responsible for events moving too quickly in Westeros for Illyrio's liking. So mayhaps Illyrio already knows exactly what game Littlefinger is playing?

Then we look at the attempt on Dany. Remember how it was Petyr who talked the small council out of sending an FM, correctly deducing that whoever they did send would botch it and put the Dothraki on their guard? It did more than that. It reignited Drogo's invasion of Westeros (which was pretty much off the table once Viserys died), and accelerated it -- exactly what Illyrio wanted.

So no, Petyr and Varys are not working together. Varys is trying to restore the Targ or Blackfyre line to the throne, which Illyrio wants, but only as a means to destabilize the Iron Bank, which is the plan that Petyr is part of. I suspect Petyr knows that Varys is working for Illyrio, and it is why Petyr has been able to run circles around Varys thus far. But Varys does not know the same about Petyr.

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13 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

And the fact that a statue of Illyrio as a young man is described similar to Aegon. And the fact his wife apprently had Valyrian features.

It is a questionable theory, as all are, but far from being without support in the text.

I don't recall anyone saying the statue looked like Aegon, but I'll take your word for it. But it's a statue, likely created long after Illyrio became a wealthy man -- quite possibly using Aegon as a model. And if the statue is roughly accurate, Illyrio had long blond hair too, so we don't really need Serra to give Aegon his Valyrian features.

So I still like my version better. It has a more plausible motive for Illyrio to be spending all of this treasure on a cause that has nothing to do with him.

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7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Varys and Littlefinger are also on the small council serving Robert. Just because they have a common master does not mean they are on the same side, nor does it mean the master is being honest with either of them.

Here is why I think Petyr is working for Illyrio:

Let's start with his backstory. Petyr shows up in Gulltown with his minor sinecure as a junior customs official and immediately starts bringing in ten times the revenue of the other more senior officials. This is simply not possible. Either Petyr is collecting more than is due or he is collecting the right amount and all the other collectors, including the chief, are either inept, corrupt or both. Either way, traders and captains and others are paying more than they normally are, but only when Petyr is on the job. At the very least, this should have produced howls of protest on the docks, or gotten Petyr a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea. Docks are dangerous places run by powerful men who don't take kindly to skinny little minor lordlings who come in and rock the boat, and Petyr has no money of his own, no guards, no men-at-arms, no nobody to protect him.

The only way this is feasible is he had to be bankrolled by someone wealthy enough to pad Petyr's receipts and pay off anyone who might start asking questions. But how do we know this is Illyrio? I turn your attention to the conversation in the dragon room. Notice how Varys just gets through telling Illyrio all of the secrets he knows about the high and mighty in the realm. He knows about the attempt on Bran and the dagger; he knows about Ned and the book; he knows about the plot to bring Margaery to King's Landing . . . He knows all this and more from his little birds (he is Master of Whispers, after all), but when it comes to Petyr, "the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing." So Petyr is the one blind spot in this entire spy network that Illyrio is funding, and yet he is not even slightly perturbed by this, even though they both know that Petyr is mucking with the finances of the realm they hope to usurp and he is directly responsible for events moving too quickly in Westeros for Illyrio's liking. So mayhaps Illyrio already knows exactly what game Littlefinger is playing?

Then we look at the attempt on Dany. Remember how it was Petyr who talked the small council out of sending an FM, correctly deducing that whoever they did send would botch it and put the Dothraki on their guard? It did more than that. It reignited Drogo's invasion of Westeros (which was pretty much off the table once Viserys died), and accelerated it -- exactly what Illyrio wanted.

So no, Petyr and Varys are not working together. Varys is trying to restore the Targ or Blackfyre line to the throne, which Illyrio wants, but only as a means to destabilize the Iron Bank, which is the plan that Petyr is part of. I suspect Petyr knows that Varys is working for Illyrio, and it is why Petyr has been able to run circles around Varys thus far. But Varys does not know the same about Petyr.

Okay....So I think some of that was well thought out but I still think there are too many unknows for somebody who's placing bets, which is Littlefingers whole schtick.  I'll give it to you.....technically possible....but I don't see it.  Littlefinger would need to have masterful greensight powers to pull that off.  It's POSSIBLE that he does indeed have that power...he's physically weak and meets some of the prerequisites for greensight....but he only meets some.  Color me not convinced.

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On 10/28/2022 at 8:40 PM, Ring3r said:

Okay....So I think some of that was well thought out but I still think there are too many unknows for somebody who's placing bets, which is Littlefingers whole schtick.  I'll give it to you.....technically possible....but I don't see it.  Littlefinger would need to have masterful greensight powers to pull that off.  It's POSSIBLE that he does indeed have that power...he's physically weak and meets some of the prerequisites for greensight....but he only meets some.  Color me not convinced.

Where are you getting greensight from? It's a simple con job. Petyr collects the normal revenue from traders and merchants, and then pads his receipts with money from Illyrio. Everyone is happy and it makes Petyr look like a financial genius, when he's really just a hustler. 

Then he has Lysa working on Jon Arryn, who is desperate to please his erratic, unstable wife, to get Petyr appointed customs chief and then MoC. So in what way does Petyr need greensight for any of this?

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 10/25/2022 at 7:05 PM, sifth said:

Yea, but the show kills him off, around the time he would have made that deal. So is the whole thing a red herring, or is Stannis actually going to live a lot longer in the novels.

It is my suspicion that Stannis will live until Dany arrives.  The two will meet and Stannis will learn who the real Azor Ahai is.  But the Pink Letter contradicts this time line for Stannis.  In which case the funds will be stolen by his emissary. 

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