UK Politics: rooting for the vegetables

[Derfel Cadarn]

 

[Raja]

She's a moron and Loughton gets to the crux of when people mention 'illegal', it makes no sense.

[SeanF]

Judges reject Scottish government's referendum vote case - BBC News

The most interesting part of the judgement, to me, is the Supreme Court's ruling that there is no right to self-determination in international law, outside of colonies, or countries under foreign occupation.  That concurs with rulings by the Supreme Courts of Canada and Spain.

[mormont]

The outcome was always very likely, but the ruling that there isn't a legal right to self-determination creates a problem. If there isn't a legal right, and the UK government refuse to recognise a political right, what next?

The 'once in a generation' comment was a passing remark made as part of a campaign and was never part of the legislation for the 2014 referendum or any official document concerned with that vote. Nobody agreed to it, nobody voted for it. Against that, a majority of MSPs were elected in 2021 on an explicit promise to voters to hold a referendum before the end of the Parliament. The UK government position is that the former carries more weight than the latter - and that it would carry more weight even than a majority vote for the SNP in Scotland in a UK general election. That it means no referendum under any circumstances until an unspecified future date.

That can't hold, as a position. All it does is guarantee more SNP MPs and MSPs will be elected.

[Heartofice]

Sturgeon is basically done here. She has lost. Now she should probably get back to what she should be doing and dealing with the issues she has badly failed to address in Scotland whilst she wastes everyone's time chasing a referendum she was never going to get. 

[SeanF]

24 minutes ago, mormont said:

The outcome was always very likely, but the ruling that there isn't a legal right to self-determination creates a problem. If there isn't a legal right, and the UK government refuse to recognise a political right, what next?

The 'once in a generation' comment was a passing remark made as part of a campaign and was never part of the legislation for the 2014 referendum or any official document concerned with that vote. Nobody agreed to it, nobody voted for it. Against that, a majority of MSPs were elected in 2021 on an explicit promise to voters to hold a referendum before the end of the Parliament. The UK government position is that the former carries more weight than the latter - and that it would carry more weight even than a majority vote for the SNP in Scotland in a UK general election. That it means no referendum under any circumstances until an unspecified future date.

That can't hold, as a position. All it does is guarantee more SNP MPs and MSPs will be elected.

A fair question.  I think that political establishments take pretty much the view, now, that national boundaries won't get changed, unless the circumstances are very unusual ones (eg the referendum provisions in the Belfast Agreement).  The political establishments of Spain and France will be very pleased by that ruling.

[Spockydog]

27 minutes ago, mormont said:

If there isn't a legal right, and the UK government refuse to recognise a political right, what next?

Claymores and woad. 

[Mentat]

9 minutes ago, mormont said:

The outcome was always very likely, but the ruling that there isn't a legal right to self-determination creates a problem. If there isn't a legal right, and the UK government refuse to recognise a political right, what next?

The Scottish and the Catalan vie for independence look very alike and seem to be following a similar path.

The Catalan government, in 2015, also held regional elections they called "plebiscitarias" (meaning they intended to grant them the validity of the referendum the Spanish Government refused to allow them to hold), but not much, if anything, came of them. The Spanish government refused to grant them any validity beyond the election of representatives to the Catalan government.

Though pro-independence Catalan parties won a majority in the 2015 elections (and have consistently held a majority in the Catalan parliament ever since), independence or a referendum agreed with the Spanish government don't seem much closer (and the Catalan pro-independence parties have an advantage the SNP lacks, as their votes in the Spanish national parliament are often needed for a left-wing government to be seated).

I think some goals simply aren't achievable (certainly not in the short term) through traditional political means, and Western Europeans don't have an appettite for anything more radical than that. The independence of regions against the vehement opposition of the state that controls them is likely one of those goals. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

11 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Sturgeon is basically done here. She has lost. Now she should probably get back to what she should be doing and dealing with the issues she has badly failed to address in Scotland whilst she wastes everyone's time chasing a referendum she was never going to get. 

“Interesting” take. The SNP were overwhelmingly elected on a mandate for independence. The court has just said that Scotland is a lesser part of a supposed union of equals. That’s hardly going to quell calls for independence.

No reason the Scottish Government can’t run a non-binding referendum asking if people are in favour of an independence referendum. If it’s largely in favour, then it’s harder for the UK government to keep refusing.

Main sticking point would be the cost to run it.

[SeanF]

7 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

“Interesting” take. The SNP were overwhelmingly elected on a mandate for independence. The court has just said that Scotland is a lesser part of a supposed union of equals. That’s hardly going to quell calls for independence.

No reason the Scottish Government can’t run a non-binding referendum asking if people are in favour of an independence referendum. If it’s largely in favour, then it’s harder for the UK government to keep refusing.

Main sticking point would be the cost to run it.

The main problem is Unionists would boycott it.

 

12 minutes ago, Mentat said:

The Scottish and the Catalan vie for independence look very alike and seem to be following a similar path.

The Catalan government, in 2015, also held regional elections they called "plebiscitarias" (meaning they intended to grant them the validity of the referendum the Spanish Government refused to allow them to hold), but not much, if anything, came of them. The Spanish government refused to grant them any validity beyond the election of representatives to the Catalan government.

Though pro-independence Catalan parties won a majority in the 2015 elections (and have consistently held a majority in the Catalan parliament ever since), independence or a referendum agreed with the Spanish government don't seem much closer (and the Catalan pro-independence parties have an advantage the SNP lacks, as their votes in the Spanish national parliament are often needed for a left-wing government to be seated).

I think some goals simply aren't achievable (certainly not in the short term) through traditional political means, and Western Europeans don't have an appettite for anything more radical than that. The independence of regions against the vehement opposition of the state that controls them is likely one of those goals. 

No European government will side with the Catalans or Basques (or Corsicans, if they were to vote for independence).

[Mentat]

2 minutes ago, SeanF said:

No European government will side with the Catalans or Basques (or Corsicans, if they were to vote for independence).

I don't think any European government would support a unilateral declaration of independence, but some governments (mainly Belgium) and EU politicians (a minority, to be clear) have expressed sympathy for the Catalan yearn to hold a referendum to express their will on the matter. Most have simply abstained, recognising it as an internal affair of Spain and refusing to get involved in any way.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Mich Lynch of the RMT union sparrong with Daily Mail ‘journalist’

 

[BigFatCoward]

18 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Mich Lynch of the RMT union sparrong with Daily Mail ‘journalist’

 

Why do they poke him? He's handed every single one of them their arse time and again. 

[Which Tyler]

 

[mormont]

1 hour ago, Mentat said:

The Scottish and the Catalan vie for independence look very alike and seem to be following a similar path.

I'm not as well informed on the Catalan situation (obviously), but I think this is actually a little unfair to the UK government. (!)

The UK government aren't quite as resolute as I understand the Spanish government to be, in that the UK government at least allow the notion that a legitimate referendum leading to independence could in theory be held at some as-yet-undetermined point in the future. They just won't say when or how such a thing could happen, and insist that it must be them that give permission, rather than the Scots people demanding it.

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

The main problem is Unionists would boycott it.

They might, but a Unionist boycott is a dangerous tactic for Unionists, too.

[Mentat]

3 minutes ago, mormont said:

I'm not as well informed on the Catalan situation (obviously), but I think this is actually a little unfair to the UK government. (!)

The UK government aren't quite as resolute as I understand the Spanish government to be, in that the UK government at least allow the notion that a legitimate referendum leading to independence could in theory be held at some as-yet-undetermined point in the future. They just won't say when or how such a thing could happen, and insist that it must be them that give permission, rather than the Scots people demanding it.

I'd mostly agree with this. Spain has a written constitution which is notoriously difficult to change (requiring a very ample parliamentary majority and a Spain-wide referendum), and which establishes the indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation. The independence of Catalonia would require it to be modified to be legally valid, and hence some politicians simply fall back on "If the Catalans want independence, they just need to modify the constitution first", knowing this is next to impossible.

Note that the Spanish constitution doesn't really forbid a referendum to be held asking the Catalans if they want to be independent or not (at least as I interpret it), simply the implementation of a "yes" result, but it does establish that the power to hold or authorize referendums lies with the State. Giving in to this demand would have an extremely high political cost for any Spanish politician aspiring to be President, though, specially if they lost it (and it's a coin flip at best).

Generally, you're right, though. Most Spanish politicians would argue Catalonia can't have a referendum or be independent as a matter of law and principle. It wouldn't be a question of when or how.

[SeanF]

6 minutes ago, Mentat said:

I'd mostly agree with this. Spain has a written constitution which is notoriously difficult to change (requiring a very ample parliamentary majority and a Spain-wide referendum), and which establishes the indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation. The independence of Catalonia would require it to be modified to be legally valid, and hence some politicians simply fall back on "If the Catalans want independence, they just need to modify the constitution first", knowing this is next to impossible.

Note that the Spanish constitution doesn't really forbid a referendum to be held asking the Catalans if they want to be independent or not (at least as I interpret it), simply the implementation of a "yes" result, but it does establish that the power to hold or authorize referendums lies with the State. Giving in to this demand would have an extremely high political cost for any Spanish politician aspiring to be President, though, specially if they lost it (and it's a coin flip at best).

Generally, you're right, though. Most Spanish politicians would argue Catalonia can't have a referendum or be independent as a matter of law and principle. It wouldn't be a question of when or how.

I got an insight into how Catalan and Spanish attitudes differ from researching my Dissertation on the Peninsular War.

The Spanish don't call it that at all.  To them, it is La Guerra de la Indepencia (The War of Independence).  But, the Catalans flatly refuse to call it such.  They call it La Guerra Franchesa (The French War).  In their eyes, their independence was lost in 1714 and never regained.

[Mentat]

2 minutes ago, SeanF said:

The Spanish don't call it that at all.  To them, it is La Guerra de la Indepencia (The War of Independence).  But, the Catalans flatly refuse to call it such.  They call it La Guerra Franchesa (The French War).  In their eyes, their independence was lost in 1714 and never regained.

I never heard the term La Guerra Francesa during my time living in Catalonia, but then I'm not a historian, so probably not moving in the right circles. If you don't mind me asking (and the rest of you don't mind a short derail), as a historian and an uninterested party, do you think they're right? Were they independent in 1714?

[SeanF]

21 minutes ago, Mentat said:

I never heard the term La Guerra Francesa during my time living in Catalonia, but then I'm not a historian, so probably not moving in the right circles. If you don't mind me asking (and the rest of you don't mind a short derail), as a historian and an uninterested party, do you think they're right? Were they independent in 1714?

Aragon, which comprised Aragon, Catalonia, and Valencia, was a separate Kingdom from Castille, and Navarre, until 1714.  It was ruled by the same king from the time of Charles I (Charles V of the Holy Roman Empire).  But, it had very different laws, and a very different relationship to its sovereign, from Castille. The monarchy was much weaker in Aragon than in Castille.  I'd say its position was similar to that of Scotland, prior to 1707.

Catalonia was pro-Hapsburg, but the Hapsburgs surrendered their claim at the Treaty of Utrecht, in 1713.  Barcelona surrendered to the Bourbons, a year later.  After 1714, the Bourbons abolished a lot of Aragon's distinct laws and liberties, and ruled Spain in a much more centralised fashion. After 1716, most of Catalonia's political institutions were abolished, and Catalan ceased to be an official language.

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

8 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

 

Pretty sure I posted this earlier