Jump to content

The Pink Letter Debate


Craving Peaches

Recommended Posts

32 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

The point of the letter is clearly to make Jon march on Winterfell and fight the Boltons.

Mance is working for Melisandre now, and she has, just like Stannis, tried to persuade Jon to do just that, without success. Maybe that's her trying it from a different angle, by using Mance?

I'd rather say the point is to make the wildlings march on WF, not necessarily Jon. Though one of the possible motives could have been to freak the NW out and get Jon LC-off, which was a dumb move from Mel and/or Stannis. Mance's motives may have been more malicious. I don't think he cared if Jon got killed in the process.

For me, it's too speculative. George can write that any way he needs or wants, anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Because 2 of these letters had the same recipient. And no one remarks or thinks that a letter that supposedly came from someone they received a letter from before looks exactly as it should. 
 

I don’t see the point of this argument. No one is debating what the recipient (Jon) thinks of the letter. Everyone knows he thinks Ramsay wrote it so what is your point? 

53 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

How does the author describes it as different? And people speculate about it b/c people speculate about absolutely everything. Just look at threads re-examining mysteries that have already been solved and claiming that they haven’t. Dead horses get beaten, flogged and quartered here on a regular basis, and this horse isn’t even dead yet. 

If you don’t know how the third letter is described differently from the first two then I don’t see why you’re weighing in on this topic. The first two letters have the Bolton seal on pink wax whereas the third only has a smear of pink wax. The first two are signed by Ramsay and some of his bannermen whereas the third is only signed by Ramsay. The first two are written with blood whereas the third is written with maester’s ink. 
 

I agree that people speculate about absolutely everything but the Pink Letter theories aren’t like the “Rhaegar is the Night King” theories which have absolutely no evidence. If you ask yourself what the narrative purpose is of describing three different letters in detail, there is an argument to be made that GRRM does this to hint at there being a different author for the one that is described as being different.  

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

I’m the wrong person to debate on whether Asha is a better candidate than Stannis or Mance or Mel or Littlefinger or anyone b/c I not only think Ramsay wrote it, I also think he’s the best candidate and the one that makes the most sense. 

I agree that the most likely candidate is Ramsay. I say as much in my original post which is all about how Asha could also be a candidate if it isn’t Ramsay. I don’t argue that it is definitely Asha or that it definitely isn’t Ramsay. I think Ramsay wrote it but it is odd how GRRM takes the time to describe details from all three letters and decides to describe the third one with having noticeably different details from the first two. I don’t think that just because it is different it means that someone else wrote it. I just think that because it’s different it opens the door for us to debate wether or not someone else wrote it, but I still definitely agree that the most likely author is Ramsay. 

 

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Huh? The fact that maybe he wasn’t in a hurry in one instance doesn’t mean anything, literally. The argument that ‘he’s shown he can do things without hurrying’ doesn’t even make sense. Circumstances change, things happen, etc. And given the state of affairs in Winterfell, I’d say it would be quite believable that he was in a hurry when he wrote the letter. 

I agree that the most possible explanation for the Pink Letter being so different to the others is some sort of circumstantial change in Winterfell that would make Ramsay have to write so differently, but it is by no means a given. What circumstances would make Ramsay have to write so differently? If he wrote the Pink Letter he must have captured Mance or the spear wives and tortured them into telling him who Mance is. This implies he’s in a position of power in Winterfell. So sure maybe Roose decided to prevent Ramsay from writing any more letters for some reason and this is why he had to sneak to write the pink letter so he would have been in a hurry, but there is nothing in the text that hints at this being the case. You’re only saying it’s possible because it’s possible not because there are any hints in the text. It’s like me saying that everyone in Winterfell is dead because it is possible that a meteor crashed there and killed everyone. That’s not based on any hints from the text, it’s just something that’s possible. 
 

With all that said I’m just going to reiterate that I believe Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter. I just wouldn’t be surprised if it is revealed that someone else wrote it when/if TWOW comes out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Isn't Ramsay at Winterfell by that point?

Maybe, when he sent the letter. But by the time Jon receives the letter, Ramsay probably isn’t there anymore since the Freys and Manderlys have already rode out to find Stannis. Theon, as we see in TWoW Theon I, is certain Ramsay is coming to the crofter’s village and he’s probably right. My impression has always been that, given the distance between CB & Winterfell, Jon and Ramsay would end up melting along the way; after all the ride would take longer than 10 days, and probably a lot longer b/c of the weather. But then Jon got stabbed and that’s not happening. 
I can maybe see Ramsay wanting Jon to go to Winterfell, hopefully with fArya & Theon and the rest. In other words, that Jon complies w/ his demands, that he manages to keep the fArya plot half-hidden, capture the other people he asked for, and maybe kill Jon. But the idea that whoever wrote the letter wanted Jon to go to Winterfell only works w/ Ramsay as the author. Because every other contender would have to be very dumb to count on such an iffy plan. The letter can get lost, never delivered to Jon, the raven is killed/dies, etc etc etc. And that doesn’t even factor in the fact that the letter is so cryptic (if written by anyone other than Ramsay) that whoever wrote it must have known there’s a fair chance Jon won’t even understand its ‘true purpose’ - get Jon to Winterfell. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

I don’t see why you’re weighing in on this topic.

:lol:

The point of the question was to see why did you think the 2 letters are so different from the 3rd. The reasons you listed don’t mean much to me. That he didn’t have access to the wax and seal for instance. The fact that no one else signed makes perfect sense to me. But maybe you’re right, maybe I shouldn’t be weighing in on this topic. Have fun. :)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
On 1/30/2023 at 8:18 PM, sweetsunray said:

I'd rather say the point is to make the wildlings march on WF, not necessarily Jon. Though one of the possible motives could have been to freak the NW out and get Jon LC-off, which was a dumb move from Mel and/or Stannis. Mance's motives may have been more malicious. I don't think he cared if Jon got killed in the process.

But what if Jon decides to comply with The Pink Letter and hands over Val and The Monster?  Or, if he doesn't and a cabal within The Watch try to assassinate Jon and to comply with the letter's demands - as appears to be happening?  What if Jon keeps his counsel and plays the long game, waiting for Ramsay to come to him?

The only way Mance can be confident Jon or The NW won't hand over Val and his son to Ramsay's agents is if Stannis has completely defeated The Boltons.  And if that's so why does Mance need to lie and get Jon to march south - is he really hoping Jon will hand him an army so he can fight Stannis?  He couldn't get away with a lie here for long anyway as Stannis or any of the Northern Lords would soon send word that The Boltons were defeated, proving his bluff a lie.

I don't see how Mance makes this calculation.

Stannis makes less sense as the letter might drive Selyse, Shireen and Mel to flight or risk them being handed over to The Boltons.  Even if it didn't, look what The Pink Letter led to at Castle Black: mutiny, murder and chaos - hardly any objectives of Stannis.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, the trees have eyes said:

But what if Jon decides to comply with The Pink Letter and hands over Val and The Monster?  Or, if he doesn't and a cabal within The Watch try to assassinate Jon and to comply with the letter's demands - as appears to be happening?  What if Jon keeps his counsel and plays the long game, waiting for Ramsay to come to him?

The only way Mance can be confident Jon or The NW won't hand over Val and his son to Ramsay's agents is if Stannis has completely defeated The Boltons.  And if that's so why does Mance need to lie and get Jon to march south - is he really hoping Jon will hand him an army so he can fight Stannis?  He couldn't get away with a lie here for long anyway as Stannis or any of the Northern Lords would soon send word that The Boltons were defeated, proving his bluff a lie.

I don't see how Mance makes this calculation.

Stannis makes less sense as the letter might drive Selyse, Shireen and Mel to flight or risk them being handed over to The Boltons.  Even if it didn't, look what The Pink Letter led to at Castle Black: mutiny, murder and chaos - hardly any objectives of Stannis.

Imho, literary evidence points to Mance:

There is nothing written in there that could not be worded by Mance. He calls Jon bastard quite regularly, and Jon being seated away from the dais as bastard during Robert's feast at WF is one of the first things Mance learns and makes him agree to give Jon a wildling cloak.

The first paragraph about "false king", having his sword and "tell the red whore" is a mirror of the burning scene of Rattleshirt: when Mel declared the burned Rattleshirt the "false king" and Stannis draws his magicked sword. Oh and Stannis "smashed" Mance's army after over a week of battles. Sure, people could tell whatever to Ramsay, but Ramsay ain't that inexperienced. He knows that the crofter's village is less than 3 days ride of WF, and his own siege of WF was over in less than a day. Nor does Ramsay have any reason to make tout the praises of the "false king" by telling the world that Stannis managed to battle for 7 days. While that's exactly some nonsense a "singer would make up" for poetic license.

Then we have the false king's friends. It's mentioned as if Jon would know who these are. How could Ramsay know this? Mance was at the war meeting though and believes those friends are Arnolf Karstark and Crowfood. Guess who certainly knows that Arnolf Karstark is not a friend of Stannis: Ramsay. Ramsay and Arnolf plotted together in Theon's first chapter of aDwD, and how Stannis wouldn't take the bait of trying to get the Dreadfort. But Mance does not know that Arnolf was a false friend to Stannis. Roose would also never allow Crowfood's head to be on display on the Walls, because he's smart enough such a display would just make Whoresbane an enemy inside WF.

The friends on display on the Walls is an insider joke about the snowmen, and the ones they represent being friends to Stannis already inside WF: Manderly, Stout, Dustin and Whoresbane.

And then why would Ramsay refer to Stannis as false king, never using his name, but refer to Mance by his earned title King-Beyond-the-Wall? Wouldn't Mance not just be yet another false king? Ad he wouldn't care one jot about the wildling babe or Mance's son.

Oh and Mance tells the Magnar at the Fist to cut out Jon's heart if he betrays or lies at them again, before sending them off the climb the Wall to attack Castle Black from the south.

George makes a point of having Mance as Rattleshirt present at crucial meetings and the arrival of Ramsay's prior letter announcing he'll wed Jon's sister Arya.

But overall, the letter reads like a plotline of Mance from when he was "smashed" by Stannis' host beneath the Wall: the burning scene of fake Mance, the war meeting where Stannis and Jon talk about Crowfood and Karstark, him being sent off to rescue Arya and then having managed to do just that.

We can only guess at the motive, but a wrong guess does not make Mance any less the probable author. If George reveals Mance to be the author he set him up for it perfectly.

My guess of the motive is that Mance was supposed to send a letter to Castle Black with an update by Mel's request (for she couldn't see Stannis in her fires anymore). She expected a letter and the letter instructs Jon to confer with Mel over it. Mance had no way of knowing that Jon would distrust and abhor Mel's manipulations so much, he'd rather plot and plan with Tormund over it for hours than go to Mel with it. He also had no way of predicting that Jon would read it aloud at the Shieldhall. It's just that Mance needed to get the letter out of Winterfell, especially if he's in a pickle. How is he going to get one of Roose's maesters to agree to send a raven to Castle Black with a letter that the grey rats tend to read? Only if it was pretending to be a letter written by Roose or Ramsay. If Roose is still at WF (and I think he is), then the maester could end up saying "oh I sent your letter to Castle Black an hour ago." And then that would risk exposing the secret allies of Mance and Stannis inside WF. But if it were a letter supposedly written by Ramsay, that he supposedly asked Whoresbane to give to a maester, just as he rides out towards CB in search of his Reek and bride, then the maester would be (a) too scared to refuse (b) not question the lack of stamp (c) could never check with Ramsay himself (d) and Roose would believe his son would send a head's up to Castle Black.

The message itself is coded to give an update on what is going on:

  • The Boltons believe Stannis dead and have his sword, but Mance is equally boasting Stannis' battle abilties
  • Arnfolf Karstark and Crowfood are dead
  • But the walls of WF are manned by friends to Stannis
  • Ramsay's hunting for fArya and his Reek, believing them to be at CB (and Mance has no way of knowing the contrary), in other words, he did his job.
  • Mance is in a pickle
  • Come with everyone and all forces
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Apparently, the phrase "black crow" is only used by people north of the Wall.

A search of ice and fire from aGoT as far as aDwD on "black crow(s)" only yields Free Folk using that particular phrase yes. So, yup written by a wildling.

To come back to the "motive":

Basically, whenever motive has been discussed for an alternative to Ramsay (and there are serious counterpoints against the claim of Ramsay having written), it is always a motive offered from a hindsight position. We know what the consequences were of the Pink Letter, thereby presuming it was sent with the intent to provoke Jon or the wildlings or the mutineers, or to deceive spies within Castle Black.

But the criticism that the author could not know or predict such responses is a valid one. Imo these were all unintended consequences. Much of what befalls that day and evening at Castle Black are imho unintended consequences often from the best intentions, excluding the assassins.

It makes more sense to wonder what reason the author could have to pretend to be Ramsay, and since the mistakes and truths in that letter show it was sent from Winterfell, the need to send a letter as if written by Ramsay makes way more sense: it's the sole way you can convince a maester to send a raven with a letter to the "enemy". It therefore must be convincing enough to deceive a grey rat loyal to the Boltons, and yet contain enough pointers and references for Jon + Mel to wave "Hey, it's me Mance!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

So, yup written by a wildling.

Or by someone who managed to capture and torture one, something that is not beyond the realm of possibility. 
That said, I’m not at all convinced no one else ever uses “black crow” ever; yes, we don’t see anyone using it but that doesn’t mean people south of the Wall are not familiar with it, especially in the North. 

5 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

It makes more sense to wonder what reason the author could have to pretend to be Ramsay, and since the mistakes and truths in that letter show it was sent from Winterfell, the need to send a letter as if written by Ramsay makes way more sense: it's the sole way you can convince a maester to send a raven with a letter to the "enemy".

I’m not sure I understand what you mean here… Is it that someone gave the letter to maester saying it was from Ramsay? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I’m not sure I understand what you mean here… Is it that someone gave the letter to maester saying it was from Ramsay? 

Yes, and expects a grey rat to potentially read the letter before sending it, especially when the pink wax has no seal and was not handed to the maester by Ramsay himself.

Quote

She might have said more, but then she saw the maesters. Three of them had entered together by the lord's door behind the dais—one tall, one plump, one very young, but in their robes and chains they were three grey peas from a black pod. Before the war, Medrick had served Lord Hornwood, Rhodry Lord Cerwyn, and young Henly Lord Slate. Roose Bolton had brought them all to Winterfell to take charge of Luwin's ravens, so messages might be sent and received from here again.

As Maester Medrick went to one knee to whisper in Bolton's ear, Lady Dustin's mouth twisted in distaste. "If I were queen, the first thing I would do would be to kill all those grey rats. They scurry everywhere, living on the leavings of the lords, chittering to one another, whispering in the ears of their masters. But who are the masters and who are the servants, truly? Every great lord has his maester, every lesser lord aspires to one. If you do not have a maester, it is taken to mean that you are of little consequence. The grey rats read and write our letters, even for such lords as cannot read themselves, and who can say for a certainty that they are not twisting the words for their own ends? What good are they, I ask you?" (aDwD, The Prince of Winterfell)

Why does George have Lady Dustin worry so much over maesters whispering in the ears of their masters and reading their letters? Seems to me she's pondering the problem on how to send a message to people the Boltons would not like a message being sent, without getting caught.

And not so incidentally, Lady Dustin betrays this annoyance to the reader after Roose received news of Stannis' movements, which could only have come from the Karstarks who pretend to be friends to Stannis, but in reality are allies to Roose.

Quote

 

She broke off as Roose Bolton rose to his feet, pale eyes shining in the torchlight. "My friends," he began, and a hush swept through the hall, so profound that Theon could hear the wind plucking at the boards over the windows. "Stannis and his knights have left Deepwood Motte, flying the banner of his new red god. The clans of the northern hills come with him on their shaggy runtish horses. If the weather holds, they could be on us in a fortnight. And Crowfood Umber marches down the kingsroad, whilst the Karstarks approach from the east. They mean to join with Lord Stannis here and take this castle from us." (aDwD, The Prince of Winterfell)

 

In the end Arnolf gets caught, but this Mance and the Northern conspiritors hope to avoid.

27 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Or by someone who managed to capture and torture one, something that is not beyond the realm of possibility. 
That said, I’m not at all convinced no one else ever uses “black crow” ever; yes, we don’t see anyone using it but that doesn’t mean people south of the Wall are not familiar with it, especially in the North. 

In theory, sure. But wouldn't George have a northerner drop that phrase in Winterfell at least once then?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Imho, literary evidence points to Mance:

I follow your arguments for Mance based on wording, it was the objective he was aiming at I am querying.

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

My guess of the motive is that Mance was supposed to send a letter to Castle Black with an update by Mel's request (for she couldn't see Stannis in her fires anymore). She expected a letter and the letter instructs Jon to confer with Mel over it. Mance had no way of knowing that Jon would distrust and abhor Mel's manipulations so much, he'd rather plot and plan with Tormund over it for hours than go to Mel with it. He also had no way of predicting that Jon would read it aloud at the Shieldhall.

So it's a good news update disguised so elaborately that it achieves the opposite effect and everything at CB becomes fubar.  Wow.  I mean GRRM likes to do the good guys down but to screw them over when they've won due to simple miscommunication?  That trumps Theseus and the black sails for tragedy.

I'm not convinced, it's too risky, can easily go awry (as it does), if he can even get the letter out anyway.  It also relies on Mel and he having a code worked out in advance, not impossible, but another layer and there's little to suggest Mel and Mance are thick as thieves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why would Mel and Mance be expecting even the possibility of communication from Winterfell?  Last we heard, the mission was to rescue a girl fleeing through the wilderness near Long Lake.  Nothing at all about Winterfell.  And this is from Melisandre's POV, so we know it's true.

If she did send Mance to Winterfell, then she very much changed her mind (why?) and is being duplicitous towards Jon.  He knew nothing about Mance going to Winterfell and wouldn't have approved if he did.

If you're suggesting someone is forging a letter, you'd better come up with a good reason why.  Analyzing content is nice, but unless that content is impossible to produce by the stated writer, it really gets you nowhere without a motive.  And Ramsay's motives are more convincing than anyone else's I've seen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

I follow your arguments for Mance based on wording, it was the objective he was aiming at I am querying.

Personally, I don't think that Mance has an objective of his own. We shouldn't forget that he works for Melisandre now, and everything he does at Winterfell is on her behalf. She has, just like Stannis, tried to persuade Jon to march on the North, to no avail. She might have commissioned Mance to write the letter in a last, desperate attempt to move Jon.

Or Mance could have improvised it himself with that same goal. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Personally, I don't think that Mance has an objective of his own. We shouldn't forget that he works for Melisandre now, and everything he does at Winterfell is on her behalf. She has, just like Stannis, tried to persuade Jon to march on the North, to no avail. She might have commissioned Mance to write the letter in a last, desperate attempt to move Jon.

Or Mance could have improvised it himself with that same goal. 

March with what?  Until Tormund's arrival Jon had no forces.  And Val's mission to Tormund was kept secret.  Plus unless it got changed at the last minute, Mance's mission was to Long Lake, not Winterfell.  We know that's true because it's from Melisandre's POV.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Why would Mel and Mance be expecting even the possibility of communication from Winterfell?  Last we heard, the mission was to rescue a girl fleeing through the wilderness near Long Lake.  Nothing at all about Winterfell.  And this is from Melisandre's POV, so we know it's true.

If she did send Mance to Winterfell, then she very much changed her mind (why?) and is being duplicitous towards Jon.  He knew nothing about Mance going to Winterfell and wouldn't have approved if he did.

Melisandre could have changed her mind when news came out that Ramsay was going to marry "Arya" at Winterfell, which happened after she had her vision about the girl on a dying horse. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Melisandre could have changed her mind when news came out that Ramsay was going to marry "Arya" at Winterfell, which happened after she had her vision about the girl on a dying horse. 

The vision was of a girl on a dying horse fleeing a marriage. That never changed, and whether she is coming from Barrowton or Winterfell doesn't really matter.  The wilderness is where they are expecting to find her.   And while the timing was a bit off, there really was such a girl: Alys Karstark.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The vision was of a girl on a dying horse fleeing a marriage. That never changed, and whether she is coming from Barrowton or Winterfell doesn't really matter.  The wilderness is where they are expecting to find her.   And while the timing was a bit off, there really was such a girl: Alys Karstark.

Still, Mance and the spearwives clearly are in Winterfell to get “Arya”. 
And we only have one POV chapter from Melisandre, so a lot of things could have changed without us knowing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

So it's a good news update disguised so elaborately that it achieves the opposite effect and everything at CB becomes fubar.  Wow.  I mean GRRM likes to do the good guys down but to screw them over when they've won due to simple miscommunication?  That trumps Theseus and the black sails for tragedy.

Did I say this was a "good news update"?

See this retwisting of someone's guess of motive as a straw man to shoot it down was exactly my point about the "motive" part of the debate.

I don't care whether I convince you or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...