The Pink Letter Debate

[sweetsunray]

5 hours ago, Nevets said:

Why would Mel and Mance be expecting even the possibility of communication from Winterfell?  Last we heard, the mission was to rescue a girl fleeing through the wilderness near Long Lake.  Nothing at all about Winterfell.  And this is from Melisandre's POV, so we know it's true.

If she did send Mance to Winterfell, then she very much changed her mind (why?) and is being duplicitous towards Jon.  He knew nothing about Mance going to Winterfell and wouldn't have approved if he did.

If you're suggesting someone is forging a letter, you'd better come up with a good reason why.  Analyzing content is nice, but unless that content is impossible to produce by the stated writer, it really gets you nowhere without a motive.  And Ramsay's motives are more convincing than anyone else's I've seen.

Certainly Jon is convinced the mission is to simply intercept a girl in the wilderness near Long Lake.

But either Mel or Mance can come to the realisation that the fleeing girl may be the result of their actions, before Mance leaves. And certainly Mance ended up thinking this, because he did not wait around near Long Lake.

And yes, Mel is being duplicitous to Jon. She only revealed it was a glamored Mance, because there was no way in hell he was going to send Rattleshirt.

[sweetsunray]

5 hours ago, Nevets said:

March with what?  Until Tormund's arrival Jon had no forces.  And Val's mission to Tormund was kept secret.  Plus unless it got changed at the last minute, Mance's mission was to Long Lake, not Winterfell.  We know that's true because it's from Melisandre's POV.

• Mance would think of the Thenns at Mole's Town
• Mel has seen Tormund return in her fires. Initially Jon fears new attacks, possibly from Tormund because of this. In truth, Mel saw Val's successful mission.

[the trees have eyes]

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Did I say this was a "good news update"?

See this retwisting of someone's guess of motive as a straw man to shoot it down was exactly my point about the "motive" part of the debate.

I don't care whether I convince you or not.

Then I have no idea what you are talking about.  I don't understand what you are implying Mance's putative coded communication with Melisandre was designed to achieve.  If Mance's coded message to Melisandre was telling her

"The message itself is coded to give an update on what is going on:

• The Boltons believe Stannis dead and have his sword, but Mance is equally boasting Stannis' battle abilties
• Arnfolf Karstark and Crowfood are dead
• But the walls of WF are manned by friends to Stannis
• Ramsay's hunting for fArya and his Reek, believing them to be at CB (and Mance has no way of knowing the contrary), in other words, he did his job.
• Mance is in a pickle
• Come with everyone and all forces"

and these are your words, how is that not a good news update?

Strawman?  Retwisting?  Huh? 

Yeah, you're not going to convince anyone like this so it's a good job you don't care. 

[sweetsunray]

3 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Then I have no idea what you are talking about.  I don't understand what you are implying Mance's putative coded communication with Melisandre was designed to achieve.  If Mance's coded message to Melisandre was telling her

"The message itself is coded to give an update on what is going on:

• The Boltons believe Stannis dead and have his sword, but Mance is equally boasting Stannis' battle abilties
• Arnfolf Karstark and Crowfood are dead
• But the walls of WF are manned by friends to Stannis
• Ramsay's hunting for fArya and his Reek, believing them to be at CB (and Mance has no way of knowing the contrary), in other words, he did his job.
• Mance is in a pickle
• Come with everyone and all forces"

and these are your words, how is that not a good news update?

Strawman?  Retwisting?  Huh? 

Yeah, you're not going to convince anyone like this so it's a good job you don't care. 

You ignore all the negative stuff I mentioned. Is that how you judge news: ignore half? Mance in a pickle? Stannis and the friends dead?

Apparently you consider Ramsay hunting fArya and his Reek good news. That message is both some good and bad.

As for boasting Stannis' battle abilities when it's a eulogy, is also not great news either. And the point I was making there completely went over your head: "seven days of battle". The point is that Ramsay would not boast that the false king whose sword he has could have fought seven days in battle.

So, yeah, strawman and retwisting sounds like a compliment at this point.

[the trees have eyes]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

So, yeah, strawman and retwisting sounds like a compliment at this point.

Grow up.  I found your argument hard to follow (still do, though I'm not at all interested in continuing this sort of dialogue) and your response is to be confrontational, petty and snarky.

[Nevets]

I still fail to see why Mance and Melisandre would set up a code/communication system in the first place.  Unless things changed very, very quickly, there was no reason to think anybody was going beyond Long Lake.  Once the decision was made, Mance could (and should) leave within a day or so.  Not much time for things to change or to set up a code.

I don't see any point in sending Mance on to Winterfell after the rescue.  He has no reliable means of communication and events in Winterfell aren't that important to the Wall anyway.  And Melisandre can't communicate with Stannis because he is out of raven range.

 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

22 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

Grow up.  I found your argument hard to follow (still do, though I'm not at all interested in continuing this sort of dialogue) and your response is to be confrontational, petty and snarky.

You had a pretty good theory a couple years ago about who wrote this, didn't you? 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

9 minutes ago, Nevets said:

He has no reliable means of communication

Couldn't Mance and Melisandre be connected through the red rubies they both have?

[Nevets]

1 minute ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Couldn't Mance and Melisandre be connected through the red rubies they both have?

In that case there would be no need for the code business that is the basis for her theory in the first place.  Or him sending it for any other reason.

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I still fail to see why Mance and Melisandre would set up a code/communication system in the first place.  Unless things changed very, very quickly, there was no reason to think anybody was going beyond Long Lake.  Once the decision was made, Mance could (and should) leave within a day or so.  Not much time for things to change or to set up a code.

I don't see any point in sending Mance on to Winterfell after the rescue.  He has no reliable means of communication and events in Winterfell aren't that important to the Wall anyway.  And Melisandre can't communicate with Stannis because he is out of raven range.

 

I know where you are getting from... Your arguments work from Jon's POV.

But Mel and Mance aren't Jon.

• We know that if Jon had not threatened to kill Rattleshirt if he put one foot near his sister and away from CB, Mel would not have revealed Jon that it was glamored Mance. She only undoes the glamor spell, because there is no other way to convince Jon.
• During Mel's chapter Mel and Mance do discuss the grey girl as only going to Long Lake and wlecome the sister.
• Mance says at some point that if he were Jon he would do this and that, and Mel reminds him that he is not Jon, that Jon lives and breathes the Night's Watch vows.
• Mel is trying to find Stannis and visions of him in her fires, but sees nothing, and for a long while already. We know why from Arya's plot in the Riverlands. Stannis is in old gods territory. Just like Thoros cannot see anything in fires on the hill of High Heart, in a ring of dead weirwood treestumps, Mel cannot see Stannis traversing the Wolfswood, surrounded by tree-men (Mountain Clans). She is frustrated by that.
• Mance believes in her powers and her visions. This is not the first witch he worked with. There are several woods witches, seers (green dreamers), propheceers amongst his unified army when he attacks the Wall: Woods Witch and Mother Mole are but known examples. It's hinted Dalla was one as well. This implies he knows it's a sword without a hilt, for years already. He knows the mistakes they and he made. He is certainly aware of more things she has seen in her fires than the grey girl alone. Mel loves to boast about what she has seen in her fires: Tormund returning, for example.
  • He is smart enough to possibly deduce that Mel is blind about Stannis' progress and why that would be so.

Now let us examine how visions most likely work to one who would believe in the truth of them like Mance

timeline 1: ................. fArya escapes on her own ................ fArya passes Long Lake by herself ................ Mance and 6 spearwives meet her later after the moment that Mel saw

timeline 2: ................ Mance and 6 spearwives help fArya escape but do not run with her ....... fArya passes Long lake by herself

timeline 3: ................ Mance and 6 spearwives help fArya escape and run with her ....... Mance and 6 spearwives get killed or captured before Long Lake ..... fArya passes Long lake by herself

impossible timeline 1: ...... fArya escapes on her own ........ Mance and 6 spearwives meet fArya at Long Lake, thereby making Mel's vision untrue

impossible timeline 2: ..... Mance and 6 spearwives help fArya escape and go with her .... fArya + Mance + 6 spearwives pass Long Lake, thereby making Mel's vision untrue

Mance knows that for Mel's vision to be true he either must come across fArya before he gets to the eastern side of Long Lake or he must have been responsible of helping her escape. And if he does help her escape, he should not try to run with her: because then things happen to avoid the paradox. 

(of course Mance and Mel do not take into consideration timeline 4: that the grey girl wasn't fArya, but Alys Karstark who looks like an older Arya)

A case can certainly be made that Mance believed "timeline 2" or "timeline 3" was very likely the causal event that leads to Mel's vision, and that he came to believe that in such a timeline, his best chances for survival were not running with fArya at the same time.

What is much harder a case to make is when Mance grew to believe this: before he left Castle Black, or by the time he reached Long Lake. If he realized it before he left Castle Black, did he discuss these possibilities with Mel off page or not? Did he mention a what if scenario?

We can see though, based on Mance's choices and actions that he certainly came to realize timeline 1 was not an option, and that instead he and his 6 spearwives would be the ones who helped fArya escape. More, we can also see that as soon as he and the 6 spearwives chose to be the one to help fArya escape, Mance had no intention really to flee with the bride, but instead opted to stay put somehow, and intended to hide and seek refuge within the crypts like Bael.

This may not matter to Jon or even Mel, but it sure would matter to Mance, who at some point realized he would be risking his very life for this, and wants to survive this.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

In that case there would be no need for the code business that is the basis for her theory in the first place.  Or him sending it for any other reason.

Do you believe that Mance went to Winterfell of his own accord and for his own reasons, then? 

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

In that case there would be no need for the code business that is the basis for her theory in the first place.  Or him sending it for any other reason.

Agree that the rubies cannot be used to communicate messages. They seem to make some type of magical bond sensation, pressure or perhaps even a painful punishing sensation. But George imo wrote them not to have enough power to overcome free will (if he does, then this would take away responsibility of Stannis being this close to gift Edric Storm to Mel at Dragonstone). It may help to find or see that person in visions, unless of course that person is in old gods country where weirwood trees or greenseers have the power to block fire-seers from seeing anything. And if Mel cannot see Stannis in her fires, she would be unable to see Mance at WF. This makes Mel as reliant on communication by letter just like a normal mortal man.

Is it possible that Mance came to the realization of her limitations to see anything that goes on in the Wolfswood and WF before he left? And if so did he discuss this with Mel?

[the trees have eyes]

15 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Do you believe that Mance went to Winterfell of his own accord and for his own reasons, then? 

It's opaque but Mance does what Mel wants, as all the Wildlings do what Jon / The NW want, because Mel / Jon took hostages.  What better way to turn the tables and escape that bind than to have something Jon dearly wants to offer in exchange, namely FArya?

Mance was King Beyond The Wall and his interest is in leading and protecting his people.  Mel has a temporary hold over him but that's all it is.  Whatever Mel's vision (vague) and instructions (conditional on that vision) Mance has a plausible objective in going to WF. 

How he would know that he had not simply left FArya freezing to death around Long Lake while he headed to WF is another matter.

17 hours ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

You had a pretty good theory a couple years ago about who wrote this, didn't you? 

I can't take any such credit, unfortunately . 

The simplest explanation is that Stannis, having sprung Ramsay's trap with the Karstarks, has planted false information with Ramsay to trick him, including having Lightbringer presented to Roose / Ramsay as a trophy by Glover / Umber / AN Other Northmen dressed up in Karstark colours.  The Boltons think they've won and make demands accordingly but Stannis is probably preparing to launch an attack on a WF now off guard.  He prepared Massey for this exact news and ordered him to stay focused on his mission but he couldn't prepare Jon or The Watch resulting in unforeseen chaos at The Wall.

Stannis' trick is a sound tactical ploy to wrongfoot Ramsay / Roose and retake WF.  This only works if they remain at WF and receive no word of what really happened in the battle from survivors (it's a few days to WF in heavy snow so survivors would face slim odds without provisions, equipment or firewood).  Stannis doesn't foresee Ramsay's letter to WF and the outcome at Castle Black.

Of course this is what I would like to happen and thought was going to happen and GRRM is master of the rug pull so maybe it didn't.  Maybe The Freys were not outnumbered and slaughtered by Stannis's troops fighting with Glover, Umber and Karstark men who turned sides in accordance with their captive Lord's orders, all while Manderly took them in the flank.  Maybe all that did happen but Stannis's follow-up assault on WF failed (hence seven days of battle being more than one engagement) and the "false king's friends" really are dead, "their heads upon the walls of Winterfell" (again this would be days after any battle at the crofters' village).

But I can't see it.  The Freys are in an impossible position given the Manderlys will turn on them once they engage Stannis and the "friendly" Karstarks will prove anything but.  Same with any assault on WF: those loyal to the Boltons will be those who didn't lose anyone at The Red Wedding, which is no one apart from maybe the Ryswells but surely self-preservation, plus the chance to not have their hounds mauled to death by Ramsay's in their own Hall, will sway their decision. 

But then my optimism and GRRM's storytelling don't often go together well (Ned's failure, The Sack of WF, The Red Wedding) so I can't rule out taking the letter at face value.  Whose heads are on the walls of WF?  Is Ramsay bluffing or has he been duped here as well?  I still think it's from Ramsay in either case.  It should really be from Roose but with Ramsay being the aggrieved husband wanting his "bride" back he has a strong argument to send it as Bolton spokesperson.  Maybe Roose wants him to work at his statecraft and negotiating skills which surely could do with some polishing.

[kissdbyfire]

@Lyanna<3Rhaegar, I think there’s a homophone at play here. I believe the theory you were referring to was by @three-eyed monkey… I haven’t seen him around since I came back, but I remember that a few years back we were discussing the PL and I remember you liked his theory. He and I have a wager going on this very topic, so I hope he comes back when we get confirmation on the letter’s authorship.

 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

On 2/15/2023 at 8:25 AM, kissdbyfire said:

@Lyanna<3Rhaegar, I think there’s a homophone at play here. I believe the theory you were referring to was by @three-eyed monkey… I haven’t seen him around since I came back, but I remember that a few years back we were discussing the PL and I remember you liked his theory. He and I have a wager going on this very topic, so I hope he comes back when we get confirmation on the letter’s authorship.

 

Yes! That's who it was. I hope he comes back too, I liked his theories

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

Yes! That's who it was. I hope he comes back too, I liked his theories

Yeah, I like him as well, even if I don’t agree w/ him irt the PL and will most definitely win that bet!

 

 I think the thread I was referring to is this one here:

 

[three-eyed monkey]

On 2/16/2023 at 1:45 PM, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

Yes! That's who it was. I hope he comes back too, I liked his theories

Thank you. The feeling is mutual. I follow your blog.

On 2/16/2023 at 1:51 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Yeah, I like him as well, even if I don’t agree w/ him irt the PL and will most definitely win that bet!

I hope you don't think I've forgotten about the bet.

What better way to get back into it than a Pink Letter debate.

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I hope you don't think I've forgotten about the bet.

Hey, WB! And had you forgot I'd hunt you down to the ends of the world... You didn't really think I'd let you get out of paying what you'll owe me, did you? 

And btw, our bet is to be paid in alcoholic beverages not cash, right? 

[csuszka1948]

On 2/14/2023 at 7:21 AM, sweetsunray said:

• Mance would think of the Thenns at Mole's Town
• Mel has seen Tormund return in her fires. Initially Jon fears new attacks, possibly from Tormund because of this. In truth, Mel saw Val's successful mission.

1) There are only a few hundred Thenn fighters, which is not enough if you want to march on Winterfell and take it.

2) Did Mel tell this to Mance? Did Mance have any reason to assume that Jon managed to broker an agreement with Tormund and his 4 thousand men? 

3) Why was Mance so sure that Jon will react to the letter by reading it out aloud and declaring that he will march to Winterfell? Why is it even good for Mance, if Jon leaves his son behind unprotected?

This is my problem with the 'Mance wrote the Pink letter' theories. He had the knowledge and maybe even the means to write it, but he has no motives, unlike Ramsay.

The motive you write about a 'secret coded letter' is insanely complicated. My main issues:

1) There is no reason for Mel to assume that Mance Rayder will have access to a maester and can write a coded letter to her. 

2) If there was such a plan, why didn't Mel and Mance inform Jon about it? If coded letters pass through a third person, who can share it with anyone, then it is necessary to tell him about name. Not telling him would be insanely risky, especially if you send a letter which demands Jon to hand over his son.

[csuszka1948]

On 1/30/2023 at 10:18 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Maybe, when he sent the letter. But by the time Jon receives the letter, Ramsay probably isn’t there anymore since the Freys and Manderlys have already rode out to find Stannis. Theon, as we see in TWoW Theon I, is certain Ramsay is coming to the crofter’s village and he’s probably right. My impression has always been that, given the distance between CB & Winterfell, Jon and Ramsay would end up melting along the way; after all the ride would take longer than 10 days, and probably a lot longer b/c of the weather. But then Jon got stabbed and that’s not happening. 
I can maybe see Ramsay wanting Jon to go to Winterfell, hopefully with fArya & Theon and the rest. In other words, that Jon complies w/ his demands, that he manages to keep the fArya plot half-hidden, capture the other people he asked for, and maybe kill Jon. But the idea that whoever wrote the letter wanted Jon to go to Winterfell only works w/ Ramsay as the author. Because every other contender would have to be very dumb to count on such an iffy plan. The letter can get lost, never delivered to Jon, the raven is killed/dies, etc etc etc. And that doesn’t even factor in the fact that the letter is so cryptic (if written by anyone other than Ramsay) that whoever wrote it must have known there’s a fair chance Jon won’t even understand its ‘true purpose’ - get Jon to Winterfell. 

I agree. I think the Pink Letter could be an attempt at blackmail in Ramsay's style.

1) He (or anyone else who could have written the letter) doesn't know about his deal with Tormund's wildlings -  as far as he knows, Jon has NO army whatsoever to attack him. 

2) He has Mance Rayder with him, as 'proof of his lies'. If he exposes that Jon sent Mance to rescue his sister, he may convince the Northern lords to denounce Jon as oathbreaker, or the very least convince the members of the Watch that Jon is an oathbreaker.

However, there is a reason he doesn't expose him. As far as he knows, Jon also has a card in his hand - the knowledge that 'Arya' is in fact Jeyne. He wants Jon to reaffirm that Jeyne is 'Arya' and send her back to him, together with the family of Stannis and Mance.

What reason does he have to think that Jon will refuse his offer? Ramsay probably cannot comprehend Jon's thinking and after his interrogation of Mance and his spearwives he actually has reason to believe that Jon is dishonorable (e.g.: he killed Quorin Halfhand, one of his sworn brothers to survive; he and Melisandre later blackmailed Mance with the life of his son to rescue Arya). Jeyne is not his sister, Theon is his enemy and Stannis's family and Mance's family* are also not his loved ones, why wouldn't he give them up to keep his position as LC?

 

*although I do not entirely understand why does Ramsay demand Val and Mance's son. Is this an attempt at revenge?