The Pink Letter Debate

[sweetsunray]

13 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

This is my problem with the 'Mance wrote the Pink letter' theories. He had the knowledge and maybe even the means to write it, but he has no motives, unlike Ramsay.

As I said, motive is something that George can adapt, and a case can be made that the motive is not so much about desiring a certain result to happen at CB as it ended up happening, but the need to cry for help at WF itself.

I recognize that Ramsay's motive seems to work the best on a very superficial level

• telling the enemy that his forces needed 7 days to beat Stannis not so much
• both the "come and see" and the idea of Ramsay being after his bride and Reek and on his way to WF also doesn't work

There used to be a time that people were convicted of say a crime purely on motive alone, but it turns out that it's a very poor way to determine "whodunnit". If I follow the literary evidence on language, moments that feature Mance (on second read, because on first read you don't even know Rattleshirt is Mance), then yes Mance should be a valid suspect, even though we can only guess at his motive for now.

[three-eyed monkey]

Stannis is the main architect of the pink letter, although it is probably written in a maester's hand as Stannis likes to dictate his letters. There is some influence from Theon and probably Mance too. The letter was sent from Winterfell, after Stannis had taken the castle.

Stannis cannot send the letter from the crofters village because the only two ravens he has are trained for Winterfell. When Stannis defeats the Freys he will still be in a battle against time. His frozen army is starving with the cold count mounting every day. When he left Deepwood he told his men that he would take Winterfell or die trying, he knows there is no turning back. If he wants to win the throne then he needs to win the north and if he wants to win the north he needs to take Winterfell and eliminate Roose. He does not have the strength or supply to take Winterfell by assault or by siege, the only way is by trick.

Stannis needs to get his army past the double walls if he is to have any chance, but he just so happens to have everything he needs in that regard. He can send a message to Winterfell from Tybald, telling Roose that the Freys were lost but the Karstarks - who Roose believes are loyal to him and would turn on Stannis in battle - have emerged victorious from the battle and are returning with prisoners including Reek and Stannis. Then march to Winterfell, right through the gate, and take the castle from the inside. It comes down to a choice, you either believe Stannis has come to the end of the road or else you believe he will take Winterfell. I believe he will take Winterfell, three or four days after the battle of ice.

Having taken Winterfell, Stannis must next win the north. He's made no secret of how he plans to do this. He wants Jon Snow to leave the Watch, bend the knee, and become Jon Stark, his Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North. The north would rally to the son of Eddard Stark. Stannis would also wed Val to the Lord of Winterfell to seal a peace between the northmen and the wildlings. The wildlings respect Jon, making Jon the ideal Lord of Winterfell from Stannis' point of view. Stannis needs someone under whom the north will remain stable when he marches south and Jon is the only candidate. It's a good deal for a bastard but every time Stannis makes the offer Jon refuses because of his oath. He's a man of the Watch. The Watch take no part in the wars of the realm. But Stannis needs Jon to take part. He needs Jon to get off the Wall and get into the game of thrones.

This conflict between Jon and Stannis runs right through Dance, Jon wants to stay on the Wall and defend the realm, Stannis wants Jon to take Winterfell and help him take the realm, and the pink letter is the culmination of that conflict. It's Stannis' last desperate attempt to get Jon to choose Winterfell over the Wall, because Stannis needs him in Winterfell.

So to summarize, the pink letter was sent from Winterfell after Stannis had taken the castle, just a few days after winning the battle of ice. The letter is an attempt to take Jon off the Wall and down to Winterfell, where Stannis can try one last time to persuade Jon to bend the knee and bring him the north. This final offer would have to be convincing and may have included blackmail regarding the Mance situation and oathbreaking. (I can hear the "Stannis never lies" camp grinding their teeth.) If Stannis wants to win the throne, and he does, then he needs to win the north, but without Jon by his side he's just a southron king with a small army, freezing in Winterfell, and besieged by a north that has no love for him.

That's the where, when and why of the letter. A few points about the who.

It is Stannis who always refers to Val as wildling princess, even though Jon corrected him a thousand times.

"I want my bride. And I want my Reek," are Theon's words, as spoken to Stannis at the crofters village. Stannis was quoting Theon in an attempt to sound like Ramsay. In the letter Stannis breaks this phrase up and uses it to bracket a list of hostages demanded, all of whom have significance to Stannis. He places someone Ramsay would indeed want, his bride and his Reek, at each end but in between it's Stannis' wife and daughter, Mel, Val who he wants to help seal a peace between the north and wildlings, and Mance's son who he is holding as hostage to keep Mance loyal.

But my favorite hint that it's from Stannis comes in the first paragraph of the letter. "I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore." From Ramsay or Mance this is just a fairly generic taunt at Mel, but from Stannis it has much more meaning. Mel swore to Stannis that she saw him standing against the dark with Lightbringer raised. It's the very reason she first went to Dragonstone. When Jon later asked Mel if she thought Stannis was dead outside Winterfell, she refused to accept that possibility because she has seen his destiny in her vision. So if a letter claimed that Stannis was dead and Ramsay had Lightbringer, then Mel would have to decide whether the letter was a lie or her deeply held conviction in her vision was wrong. Stannis wants her to understand the letter is not true. He can't be dead if she believes he's going to be there for the final battle against the Great Other.

There's some parts we could attribute to the influence of Theon and Mance, but that's not a problem as both would be at Stannis' disposal once he takes Winterfell. Stannis would know about Mance and the spearwives. Theon and Mance were in the hall when Ramsay threatened to make cloaks from skin. They could certainly add some detail and color to the letter.

As for Ramsay as the author, I don't think it makes any sense. First of all, he is characterized as someone who likes to hunt women in the woods, and not really the letter-writing type. So when his bride goes missing and is loose in the woods then perhaps we should expect him to stay in-character and hunt her rather than write a letter. I suspect that while all this is going down with Winterfell, Ramsay will by miles north on the trail of Jeyne and party. It's around 600 miles to Castle Black.

It should also be noted that the Boltons know Arya is fake, that's why they made such a big deal out of cleaning up Theon to try and authenticate her on her wedding night. They're not going to ask Jon Snow to send back a girl he clearly knows is not his sister. This makes no sense. They're using Arya to bolster their claim on Winterfell. They're going to want to get her back as soon as possible and not let her make contact with someone like Jon, who knows she's not Arya Stark. They wouldn't even want it known that she escaped, and certainly would not be advertising the fact that they lost her while there is still opportunity to get her back.

Forgive the lack of citation, I was trying to keep this relatively brief. I can bring in the relevant quotes as needed.

[sweetsunray]

19 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Did Mel tell this to Mance? Did Mance have any reason to assume that Jon managed to broker an agreement with Tormund and his 4 thousand men? 

Mel said it to Jon when Stannis offered Jon the lordship of Winterfell, in aSoS.

This vision was the very reason why Stannis intially remained at the Wall and asked for castles, etc... Pretty much everyone knows that's why Stannis remains at the Wall. When it's in her interest Mel does not dissuade people from gossiping over what she claims to have seen in her fires.

Jon provided this belief that Tormund would return to the Wall with thousands of wildlings as an argument to Stannis why he should not kill Mance, in Jon's first chapter of aDwD - Mance could be a useful negotiator.

Stannis had many talks with Mance.

Mance as Rattleshirt was often in the company of Stannis and Mel, including war meetings with the Magnar, Jon, etc. The whole Dreadfort plan of the Karstarks, Mors Umber's demands, etc are discussed with Mance present. And Stannis knows Rattleshirt is Mance, since Mel tells Jon that his argument that the laws end at the Wall was what saved Mance's life. Mel could give a rat's ass about Westerosi law. The only person who'd even be persuaded by such an argument is Stannis.

Mance is not just some unimportant soldier to either Stannis or Mel, and they are not keeping much back from Mance.  "Tormund will return to the Wall with thousands of wildlings" was not a secret, and there is no reason to believe this knowledge was kept from him, since Mel and Stannis share much more important things with him, just by having him at meetings, and because Mance could be a key figure if Tormund had hostile intentions.  

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

I think Stannis knows Jon takes his vows seriously, just like Stannis. But no one is in breakable. He could figure if he can get Jon to accept his offer of Lordship of Winterfell, Jon could still be trusted moving forward

[three-eyed monkey]

On 2/19/2023 at 10:34 AM, sweetsunray said:

then yes Mance should be a valid suspect, even though we can only guess at his motive for now.

I think Mance has a strong motive to bring Jon to Winterfell, and as a result I believe he would have been perfectly happy to contribute to the design of the letter, even though his motive conflicts with that of Stannis.

Mance not only wants to get his people south of the Wall, he also wants to keep them there. Kings-beyond-the-Wall have gotten south before but none managed to stay for long before Starks or Umbers came down on them. That means he needs to build a peace with the northmen. Mance is a peace-maker. He spent years uniting the wildling clans. Mance would clearly prefer to deal with King Jon of the North rather than King Stannis of the Seven Kingdoms, or whoever sits the throne.

So while Stannis wanted Jon to come to Winterfell so that he could be finally persuaded to bend the knee and bring Stannis the North, Mance is probably hoping that the North will raise Jon and return to the independence they briefly held under Robb, essentially eliminating Stannis in the process.

 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

On 2/18/2023 at 9:32 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

Thank you. The feeling is mutual. I follow your blog.

I hope you don't think I've forgotten about the bet.

What better way to get back into it than a Pink Letter debate.

Hello! Nice to see ya around I remember your bet & am looking forward to seeing who the winner is! 

[Corvo the Crow]

On 2/19/2023 at 7:12 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

tannis cannot send the letter from the crofters village because the only two ravens he has are trained for Winterfell. When Stannis defeats the Freys he will still be in a battle against time. His frozen army is starving with the cold count mounting every day. When he left Deepwood he told his men that he would take Winterfell or die trying, he knows there is no turning back. If he wants to win the throne then he needs to win the north and if he wants to win the north he needs to take Winterfell and eliminate Roose. He does not have the strength or supply to take Winterfell by assault or by siege, the only way is by trick.

He has sent Jon some letters along the way, so he may have some birds remaining for Wall. He has even passed through several locations with Maesters and has taken their support so it is fair to assume he has taken some more Wall birds as well. I can't remember there being any statement that he hasn't got any Wall birds left, those two birds are Maester Tybald's birds and he was with Arnolf, not Stannis.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

He has sent Jon some letters along the way, so he may have some birds remaining for Wall. He has even passed through several locations with Maesters and has taken their support so it is fair to assume he has taken some more Wall birds as well. I can't remember there being any statement that he hasn't got any Wall birds left, those two birds are Maester Tybald's birds and he was with Arnolf, not Stannis.

He sent Jon a raven from Deepwood Motte. Then he marched for Winterfell, and Asha gave us a detailed description of his train as he left Deepwood. No mention of ravens or cages.
 

Quote

 

Each knight had his squires, servants, and men-at-arms. Behind them came armorers, cooks, grooms; ranks of spearmen, axemen, archers; grizzled veterans of a hundred battles and green boys off to fight their first. Before them marched the clansmen from the hills; chiefs and champions astride shaggy garrons, their hirsute fighters trotting beside them, clad in furs and boiled leather and old mail. Some painted their faces brown and green and tied bundles of brush about them, to hide amongst the trees.

Back of the main column the baggage train followed: mules, horses, oxen, a mile of wayns and carts laden with food, fodder, tents, and other provisions. Last the rear guard—more knights in plate and mail, with a screening of outriders following half-hidden to make certain no foe could steal up on them unawares.

 

 

There's not a squawk about ravens or cages on the long march to Winterfell until the Karstarks arrive with Tybald, the Dreadfort's maester, who naturally brings ravens trained for Winterfell as he is communicating with Roose.

So I don't see any evidence that Stannis has ravens with him until he acquires Tybald's two.

[Corvo the Crow]

39 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

There's not a squawk about ravens or cages on the long march to Winterfell until the Karstarks arrive with Tybald, the Dreadfort's maester, who naturally brings ravens trained for Winterfell as he is communicating with Roose.

So I don't see any evidence that Stannis has ravens with him until he acquires Tybald's two.

Plenty of things we don't see and appear out of thin air as GRRM needs them. His writing style is bend the world to serve the narrative, not fit the narrative into the world, this is why plenty of absurd things happen like armies appearing out of thin air, characters teleporting around etc. In Red Wedding alone most of Robbs forces have disappeared as can be seen through Arya PoV. She sees hundreds of horses whereas we know that Robb alone had some 3500 horsemen remaining which means double that number, but nope.

We know armies take maesters with them and carry ravens. Stannis having marched through several different locations that has maesters (mountain clans and then Deepwood Motte) and yet not taking a single raven that can be dispatched to the wall makes zero sense. 

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

We know armies take maesters with them and carry ravens. Stannis having marched through several different locations that has maesters (mountain clans and then Deepwood Motte) and yet not taking a single raven that can be dispatched to the wall makes zero sense. 

Well we know Stannis definitely didn't bring a maester. He did use a maester and raven in Deepwood to send a letter to Jon. There's no indication that he has ravens with him until Tybald arrives.

There's not a huge amount of value in communicating with the Wall for Stannis while he's between Deepwood and Winterfell. He only has a tiny garrison there and they can't reply by raven unless he is somewhere like Deepwood or Winterfell to receive it. He thought he would get to Winterfell in 15 days, maybe even before the Boltons got there and had a chance to restore the castle to it's former strength. It's not too long to be without a means of sending one way communication to his tiny garrison at the Wall.

When I first wrote a pink letter OP, I used to argue that Stannis sent the letter from the crofters village and must have had ravens because armies carry ravens and it makes good military sense to keep lines of communication open, much as you are saying now. However, I have to think that if that was the case then GRRM would have mentioned it in Asha's description of the column leaving Deepwood. Everything else seems to get mentioned, why not ravens that have a part in a major upcoming plot-point? Sure GRRM makes some mistakes but I think he's a lot better than you are making out.

[Corvo the Crow]

5 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

There's not a huge amount of value in communicating with the Wall for Stannis while he's between Deepwood and Winterfell. He only has a tiny garrison there and they can't reply by raven unless he is somewhere like Deepwood or Winterfell to receive it. He thought he would get to Winterfell in 15 days, maybe even before the Boltons got there and had a chance to restore the castle to it's former strength. It's not too long to be without a means of sending one way communication to his tiny garrison at the Wall.

 

That makes it even worse though. Winterfell is deserted before Boltons came. Boltons may or may not have ravens to the wall with them so if he's not carrying ravens he will have no means of communicating with the Wall. 

[three-eyed monkey]

33 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

That makes it even worse though. Winterfell is deserted before Boltons came. Boltons may or may not have ravens to the wall with them so if he's not carrying ravens he will have no means of communicating with the Wall. 

He will have riders, which is what people use when ravens are not available. ultimately, he;s there for the castle, not the ravens.

If he had Castle Black ravens at the crofters village why not send word to Jon that he has rescued Arya and is sending her his way. Surely that would have been worth communicating? Or maybe communicate that he hit heavy snow and his advance is stalled? He never sent a thing. If you're arguing that he would keep communication with Castle Black then why is he not communicating anything?

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, three-eyed monkey said:

He will have riders, which is what people use when ravens are not available. ultimately, he;s there for the castle, not the ravens.

If he had Castle Black ravens at the crofters village why not send word to Jon that he has rescued Arya and is sending her his way. Surely that would have been worth communicating? Or maybe communicate that he hit heavy snow and his advance is stalled? He never sent a thing. If you're arguing that he would keep communication with Castle Black then why is he not communicating anything?

Nothing worth communicating until he captures Deepwood Motte and after that, again nothing worth communicating until he gets hold of Arya. Why then, he doesn't do so I don't know but it could be something akin to below, he may not have wanted to talk about it in letters.

 

Quote

"It is, my lord. Queen Selyse has suggested that we might send word to Deepwood Motte by raven, to inform His Grace that I await his pleasure at the Nightfort. The matter that I mean to put to him is too delicate to entrust to letters."

"A debt." What else could it be? "His own debt? Or his brother's?"

The banker pressed his fingers together. "It would not be proper for me to discuss Lord Stannis's indebtedness or lack of same. As to King Robert … it was indeed our pleasure to assist His Grace in his need. For so long as Robert lived, all was well. Now, however, the Iron Throne has ceased all repayment."

 

[three-eyed monkey]

7 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Nothing worth communicating until he captures Deepwood Motte and after that, again nothing worth communicating until he gets hold of Arya. Why then, he doesn't do so I don't know but it could be something akin to below, he may not have wanted to talk about it in letters.

While Tycho felt the Iron Bank's business was too sensitive to conduct through letters, Stannis is quite liberal with the information he shares with Jon from Deepwood. New allies, the size of his force, the fact that he plans to move against Winterfell before Roose has a chance to restore the castle.

From Deepwood, Stannis told Jon he was advancing quickly against Winterfell, a march that he estimated would take 15 days. He arrived at the crofters village 33 days later. He has been at the village 19 or 20 days, just sitting there, long overdue. If he had ravens with him to maintain communication with the Wall, I think he would have used one, provided they hadn't already been eaten like every thing else.

I feel he didn't because he doesn't have ravens as there is no mention of them in the description of his column leaving Deepwood or anywhere else for that matter, until the arrival of Tybald with two trained for Winterfell.