George R. R. Martin on The Unsullied

[Lord Varys]

Also, in context - stop imagining Dany will have to fight great campaigns. KL is on the eastern shore. She will land there and take the throne. Battle won. If the war continues then people will have to march against her - good luck with that. I don't see many lords doing that nor do I imagine there being a lot of pretenders being there with the weight and strength to challenge a Targaryen queen with dragons. Who would say 'yes, you are the rightful monarch and not Mrs. Aegon the Conqueror'?

We also can say that Aegon's campaign will be one for the Iron Throne - he landed in the Stormlands and will move against KL once he has Storm's End. Once he has the throne he can reasonably expect that a lot of people actually bend the knee without opposition ... because why not? They don't want a war with no end, winter has come, and aside from Euron and Stannis no pretenders are left.

I guess Aegon could mount some resistance if he were to get away when Dany takes KL. But that would only complicate things and it should be hard enough to fit Dany's actual landing into the timeline, no need for her to have to fight against anyone but the Others once she has taken the throne.

[astarkchoice]

18 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Well, GRRM emphasizes realism in his work so when it doesn't match it sticks out like a sore thumb (like Anguy's steel liver and sex drive which is nearly equivalent to a one-month rental for a pirate fleet).

True but theres plenty of fantasy elements as he says himself without the fantasy parts its just historical fiction.

So yeah a eunuch shouldnt be able to run all day with a full pack on..but in grmms world they can

[astarkchoice]

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is irrelevant as the Riverlands are in ruins now and not likely to commit themselves to fighting yet another pretender who most likely is not going to threaten them. They are avenging themselves on their current enemies. And if they are done bathing in Lannister and Frey blood before Dany arrives they are likely to go home rather than fight and die for a cause that's clearly not their own.

The only difference there could be Targaryen loyalists in the Riverlands who end up siding with Aegon and who might then, in that capacity, fight against Dany. But they could just as well switch to her side. Impossible to say.

Stannis' sellswords have to be hired and moved ... what madman is going to sign up with a guy whose seat of power is Castle Black?! If he gets any sellswords they would be used in the North, not in a fight against Daenerys.

The Dornish that will commit themselves should join Aegon soon and then fight and bleed and die in Aegon's campaigns prior to Dany's arrival. Sure enough, perhaps the bulk of Doran's 20,000 or so will survive all those campaigns, but it will just be 20,000. Not nearly enough to mount a real resistance against Daenerys' invasion.

Dragonbone is rare ... but it is in the story for a reason. We don't have a weird hierarchy of bow efficacy just because it is fun to have that - if it were we could have hierarchies on strength of armor, sharpness of swords, thickness of walls, etc. We do have such a hierarchy because it will become important. We already saw goldenheart bows in action in AFfC and ADwD and we will see dragonbone bows with Dany's Dothraki. Nobody is saying tens of thousands of Dothraki will wield them - a couple of hundred or thousands would be enough. And they definitely would have to have that number or else we wouldn't have heard that the Dothraki do have such bows. There would be much more such bows than Valyrian steel weapons, since dragons roamed and died in Essos for thousands of years ... more than enough bones to make a lot of bows from.

With the dragonbone bows the Dothraki could crush an army of hundreds of armored knights before they even reach them. But, of course, their riding skills and ability to shoot from horseback even with common bows should enable them also to harass and crush baggage trains, outriders, scouts, and the like. Westeros as a whole is not prepared to actual face an all-out cavalry force.

In any case, though, the main reason why Daenerys shouldn't face much problems isn't numbers. It is that Westeros is deeply divided right now. These people won't work together, period. Perhaps not even against the Others. But certainly not against a woman who can reasonably enough claim to be their rightful queen. The people who are not spent or dead by the time she shows up will likely see her and her cause more as an opportunity for their own gains - like Euron and Doran and Aegon already did - than somebody they have to crush. So far nobody has a direct quarrel with her. And the fresh wounds of the War of the Five Kings and the aftermath are much more painful than whatever quarrels dead people once had with Rhaegar or Aerys. Jaime is the only Usurper's Dog left ... and he isn't even a lord in his own right.

If Dany has to fight armies it will be pretty small armies, compared to Westeros' actual military potential. And if she truly brings the entire strength she might be able to marshal in Essos - which she might have to so people can defeat the Others - then most such armies are pretty likely to capitulate rather than insist to die on the battlefield. Aegon's real loyalists might fight if they can't reach a compromise, but nobody else should. Nobody but another Targaryen pretender would have a real quarrel with Dany. Euron certainly might be another danger, but less because of military strength and more because of sorcery. And Stannis might already be dead by then.

The point was theres still significant forces remaining in westeros to be commited to battle still

 

Point was westeros HAS seen cavalry archers as its a common dornish troop type. Jamie rides with house sarsfield and his force of mounted archers.....westeros has seen this type of troop before.

Dragonbone  we are told is rare esp as  dragonbone bows hence why one is offered to a khaleesi as a wedding gift! The bulk of the dohtraki archers we are told use a specific recurve bow just as the various cultures they are modelled on did.

Now i agree  she does come west again she could carry significant forces esp as most of essos slave population see her as their messiah and are  seemingly about to overthrow almost  all of the slaver free cities!!

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

The point was theres still significant forces remaining in westeros to be commited to battle still

Right now ... but not against Dany who isn't even there yet.

9 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Point was westeros HAS seen cavalry archers as its a common dornish troop type. Jamie rides with house sarsfield and his force of mounted archers.....westeros has seen this type of troop before.

Mounted archers don't necessarily mean archers who can shoot ahorse. The Dothraki are confirmed to be doing that. Westeros doesn't seem to have even proper and professional equivalents to English longbowmen or else knights were already history.

Their archers are not effective enough to make armored knights obsolete.

9 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Dragonbone  we are told is rare esp as  dragonbone bows hence why one is offered to a khaleesi as a wedding gift! The bulk of the dohtraki archers we are told use a specific recurve bow just as the various cultures they are modelled on did.

Bow design doesn't tell us the material. Nobody said every Dothraki needs them, but they should have more than a dozen. Because, again, if they didn't, nobody would care, the author included.

9 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Now i agree  she does come west again she could carry significant forces esp as most of essos slave population see her as their messiah and are  seemingly about to overthrow almost  all of the slaver free cities!!

She is likely to take over all the Dothraki, which means she will have nearly limitless manpower.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

She is likely to take over all the Dothraki, which means she will have nearly limitless manpower.

Not for long. Daenerys' armies will indeed be formidable, but no doubt that the war against the Others and their wights army will leave her forces bled out and severaly weakened, and that this especially cold and unforgiving winter will do a number on her forces that aren't used to cold and icy climate. 

This will even the odds for Aegon and his forces, and her other foes in Dorne.

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

-Right now ... but not against Dany who isn't even there yet.

-Mounted archers don't necessarily mean archers who can shoot ahorse. The Dothraki are confirmed to be doing that.

 

-Westeros doesn't seem to have even proper and professional equivalents to English longbowmen or else knights were already history.

-Their archers are not effective enough to make armored knights obsolete.

-Bow design doesn't tell us the material. Nobody said every Dothraki needs them, but they should have more than a dozen. Because, again, if they didn't, nobody would care, the author included.

-She is likely to take over all the Dothraki, which means she will have nearly limitless manpower.

-true but a lot of it isnt going anywhere...unless euron can think of something special the reachs manpower is still largely untapped and theres vast forced left in other regions too.

-it generaly does (some with have larger bows for use off horse but still maintain smaller one for mobile use) and yes the dornish are confirmed to fight shooting while mounted  like that ! 

 

-nope we are specialy told the bigger westerosi style  yews outrange the dothraki ones.

-???huh?? Knights wernt made obsolete by archers it was a rise in cheaper en masse professional troops  +gunpowder 

-dragonbone is incredibaly rare and if it was dragonbone theyd outrage the westerosi yews and even goldenheart ...the golden company says this isnt the case though that its the standard 'double curved horn and sinew bows of the east '  ie just as huns and mongols etc who the dothraki are based on its wood with a mix of hirn and sinew cleverly mixed into a  clever composite weapon.

-We are told dragonbone bows are exceptiobaly rare not the standard weapom of a khalassar of thousands or even a few hundred of them but rather a weapon as rare as v.steel!

-not limitless no but the slaves worshiping her as their savior in all of essos may give her unprecdented manpower(as long as they can get the pale mare under control) . They are all on the tipping point of revolt and outnumber slavers greatly.

I suspect danys forces victory in mereen will be the spark of freedom all over essos...at a bare min with slavers bay gonw there is no more  mass slave processing/training centres!

 

 

 

Edited May 25, 2023 by astarkchoice

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Not for long. Daenerys' armies will indeed be formidable, but no doubt that the war against the Others and their wights army will leave her forces bled out and severaly weakened, and that this especially cold and unforgiving winter will do a number on her forces that aren't used to cold and icy climate. 

This will even the odds for Aegon and his forces, and her other foes in Dorne.

Or the pale mare she brings and the plauge old griff carrys does the others work for them!!

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 minute ago, astarkchoice said:

Or the pale mare she brings and the plauge old griff carrys does the others work for them!!

Perhaps, but I suspect they will face other illnesses they are less familiar with in Westeros. 

[astarkchoice]

2 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Perhaps, but I suspect they will face other illnesses they are less familiar with in Westeros. 

Given their proximity to the nightmare realm of sothyros and the volume of ships and khalassars and the far east as well as westerosi traders and sellswords theyd be far less likely to die of a plauge than to bring a new one with them

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Not for long. Daenerys' armies will indeed be formidable, but no doubt that the war against the Others and their wights army will leave her forces bled out and severaly weakened, and that this especially cold and unforgiving winter will do a number on her forces that aren't used to cold and icy climate. 

This will even the odds for Aegon and his forces, and her other foes in Dorne.

That sounds like a confused timeline. Aegon and Dany are not likely to fight each other while or after the Others are defeated. They are not morons.

Also, of course, I see little reason for Dany to waste her forces against an enemy like the Others while she is not effectively the ruler of Westeros. If she isn't she might offer help to the ones in charge, but she won't waste her troops while other pretenders don't.

Not to mention she is not likely to land in the North or otherwise close to the Others.

[astarkchoice]

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That sounds like a confused timeline. Aegon and Dany are not likely to fight each other while or after the Others are defeated. They are not morons.

Also, of course, I see little reason for Dany to waste her forces against an enemy like the Others while she is not effectively the ruler of Westeros. If she isn't she might offer help to the ones in charge, but she won't waste her troops while other pretenders don't.

Not to mention she is not likely to land in the North or otherwise close to the Others.

Storywise she will  clearly go north

Ice monsters are  comming and she has fire monsters to counter them. 

[SeanF]

On 5/25/2023 at 10:48 AM, Lord Varys said:

Right now ... but not against Dany who isn't even there yet.

Mounted archers don't necessarily mean archers who can shoot ahorse. The Dothraki are confirmed to be doing that. Westeros doesn't seem to have even proper and professional equivalents to English longbowmen or else knights were already history.

Their archers are not effective enough to make armored knights obsolete.

Bow design doesn't tell us the material. Nobody said every Dothraki needs them, but they should have more than a dozen. Because, again, if they didn't, nobody would care, the author included.

She is likely to take over all the Dothraki, which means she will have nearly limitless manpower.

Feeding them and transporting them would be the issues.

[astarkchoice]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

Feeding them and transporting them would be the issues.

If she wins in mereen then the slaves will rise everywhere and hand her most of essos western essos.....from slavers bay to the free cities (minus bravos of course)plus most of volantis vast fleet is about to be ambushed by the ironborn (who under dummy vic will probably become danys men)

That sorta means transport and food wont be much of  an issue.....plus its obvious they are setting us up to have danys dragons (or jon somehow) kill the others  and end the issues with  the incomming winter

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

If she wins in mereen then the slaves will rise everywhere and hand her most of essos western essos.....from slavers bay to the free cities (minus bravos of course)plus most of volantis vast fleet is about to be ambushed by the ironborn (who under dummy vic will probably become danys men)

That sorta means transport and food wont be much of  an issue.....plus its obvious they are setting us up to have danys dragons (or jon somehow) kill the others  and end the issues with  the incomming winter

I don’t think the Others will be defeated by losing a battle. I’m guessing a magic spell will need to be cast, or broken 

[Fist of the Dragon]

On 5/25/2023 at 2:22 AM, Lord Varys said:

Also, in context - stop imagining Dany will have to fight great campaigns. KL is on the eastern shore. She will land there and take the throne. Battle won. If the war continues then people will have to march against her - good luck with that. I don't see many lords doing that nor do I imagine there being a lot of pretenders being there with the weight and strength to challenge a Targaryen queen with dragons. Who would say 'yes, you are the rightful monarch and not Mrs. Aegon the Conqueror'?

We also can say that Aegon's campaign will be one for the Iron Throne - he landed in the Stormlands and will move against KL once he has Storm's End. Once he has the throne he can reasonably expect that a lot of people actually bend the knee without opposition ... because why not? They don't want a war with no end, winter has come, and aside from Euron and Stannis no pretenders are left.

I guess Aegon could mount some resistance if he were to get away when Dany takes KL. But that would only complicate things and it should be hard enough to fit Dany's actual landing into the timeline, no need for her to have to fight against anyone but the Others once she has taken the throne.

I agree with you to some extent. The Riverlands are almost destroyed (although I think they still have a significant number of troops), the Lannisters won't interfere, and the Vale of Arryn has its own fresh and untouched forces,which you say They will not confront Danny's army(It is quite wise).
As for the Tyrells or Martells, I really don't know whose side they will take, although I believe at least one of them will support Aegon. I don't think they have any strength left in stormy lands either.
But the North will probably have a king by then (that could be interesting). So he will be the conqueror, but he doesn't have to go around all of Westeros and capture every castle she sees. She doesn't have to be Aegon the conqueror.King's Landing is ready for occupation.
But do you think that Aegon will be defeated relatively easily in the end and will give up the throne? Will he not play a big role in the story? Will there be a second dance?

[Lord Varys]

12 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Storywise she will  clearly go north

Ice monsters are  comming and she has fire monsters to counter them. 

Ice monsters should come down south, not the defenders up north. The North is crippled, they won't stand a chance against the undead.

Also, whoever lets Dany fight the Others alone will lose any legitimacy whatsoever. They will be worse outcasts than the Freys.

9 hours ago, SeanF said:

Feeding them and transporting them would be the issues.

There are ships and food enough in Essos.

2 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

I agree with you to some extent. The Riverlands are almost destroyed (although I think they still have a significant number of troops), the Lannisters won't interfere, and the Vale of Arryn has its own fresh and untouched forces,which you say They will not confront Danny's army(It is quite wise).

If anything the Lannisters might fight for Dany. Aegon is going to fight Tommen and Cersei, so whoever fights him later might be a friend of the West.

The Riverlands are torn and split, they won't marshal an anti-Dany army.

2 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

As for the Tyrells or Martells, I really don't know whose side they will take, although I believe at least one of them will support Aegon. I don't think they have any strength left in stormy lands either.

The Stormlands still have some strength as we see at the moment. The Reach would be the only region with the strength to marshal a host large and powerful enough to challenge Dany's invasion - like they did during the Conquest.

Even if events before Dany's arrival makes the Reach bleed, it won't bleed out. Too large for that.

But the most important point is that they are close enough to KL to march there without much difficulty.

Dorne is likely to support Aegon but only with the 20,000 Doran has already assembled.

2 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

But the North will probably have a king by then (that could be interesting).

That shouldn't matter since he would be the king of the soon-to-be undead. He is going to need Dany, Aegon and all the allies and troops he can get. But they might be able to do without him.

2 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

But do you think that Aegon will be defeated relatively easily in the end and will give up the throne? Will he not play a big role in the story? Will there be a second dance?

Depends on the timeline. If the Wall falls before Dany shows up, there shouldn't be a Second Dance - or any big quarrel between the sane people. If not, then there is potential for conflict - although even then more about who is the savior, etc. than who is king.

[SeanF]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ice monsters should come down south, not the defenders up north. The North is crippled, they won't stand a chance against the undead.

Also, whoever lets Dany fight the Others alone will lose any legitimacy whatsoever. They will be worse outcasts than the Freys.

There are ships and food enough in Essos.

If anything the Lannisters might fight for Dany. Aegon is going to fight Tommen and Cersei, so whoever fights him later might be a friend of the West.

The Riverlands are torn and split, they won't marshal an anti-Dany army.

The Stormlands still have some strength as we see at the moment. The Reach would be the only region with the strength to marshal a host large and powerful enough to challenge Dany's invasion - like they did during the Conquest.

Even if events before Dany's arrival makes the Reach bleed, it won't bleed out. Too large for that.

But the most important point is that they are close enough to KL to march there without much difficulty.

Dorne is likely to support Aegon but only with the 20,000 Doran has already assembled.

That shouldn't matter since he would be the king of the soon-to-be undead. He is going to need Dany, Aegon and all the allies and troops he can get. But they might be able to do without him.

Depends on the timeline. If the Wall falls before Dany shows up, there shouldn't be a Second Dance - or any big quarrel between the sane people. If not, then there is potential for conflict - although even then more about who is the savior, etc. than who is king.

The logistics of transporting even 20,000 men across the sea (plus their horses and supplies) in this world would be formidable. It would require Chinese or Roman levels of bureaucratic efficiency to be achievable.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, SeanF said:

The logistics of transporting even 20,000 men across the sea (plus their horses and supplies) in this world would be formidable. It would require Chinese or Roman levels of bureaucratic efficiency to be achievable.

10,000 Golden Company men weren't even worth a chapter covering the journey. It just happened. George rarely bothers with that.

[Craving Peaches]

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

10,000 Golden Company men weren't even worth a chapter covering the journey. It just happened. George rarely bothers with that.

But they landed scattered all over the place not in one cohesive unit.

[astarkchoice]

7 hours ago, SeanF said:

The logistics of transporting even 20,000 men across the sea (plus their horses and supplies) in this world would be formidable. It would require Chinese or Roman levels of bureaucratic efficiency to be achievable.

Yeah we see new ghis handles  moving 36k men and  100 elephants readily enough.

The golden company uses volon therys possibly renting ships or some of ilyrios merchant fleet there (which would make for  less likely for word getting out). 

Iv read early medieval ships could carry 8 or all the way up to 20/32 horses ! The common cog around 90-120tonnes of cargo. Menwise  dozens to 100s.

If volantis can field 500 warships we can assume its merchant fleet is 3xtimes that at least spread over the world before we mention the other free cities huge trading fleets , slavers bay, westeros, quarth(3-4 guilds with fleets in the 1000s) so the logistic potential of essos is massive !!!!!

 

That said the logistics of bringing the dothraki across would be staggering! Drogos 40k riders probably with 3-4horses each and food, grains , men, the  rest of the khalassar , arrows  etc