U.S. Politics - Oh no! Here we Don McGahn. Recuse or pack.

[Maithanet]

Just now, Gaston de Foix said:

IMHO, all you need is the Supreme Court to accept a strong version of ISL.  If state legislatures can allocate electoral votes as they see fit, all they need to do is pass legislation saying electoral votes go to the Republican ticket.  If states can split the electoral college vote amongst CDs, or join the National Popular Vote compact, then they can just ignore the statewide popular vote in favor of a predetermined outcome.  

There are several avenues for Republicans to set up authoritarianism, and they all need to be stopped. 

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I remain firm in the statement that if Republicans win the governorships and SoS of most of the swing states tonight, that a Democrat winning the WH in 2024 is dramatically less likely.  Not impossible (no one knows the future), but not at all likely.  2020 was a good dress rehearsal for how to steal the election via soft coup, and that is definitely the plan for a lot of the people running. 

What does "most swing states" mean?  A sweep of both gubernatorial and SoS races is decidedly unlikely - particularly in Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Then you have Georgia where the two Republicans will win, but obviously owe absolutely nothing to Trump or Trumpists.  So, you're really talking about Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.  First, it should be noted if Biden lost those three states, he still would have won the electoral college in 2020.  Second, saying you're going to steal an election and actually pulling it off are two very different things.

These races are very important, but it's foolhardy to grant them as much decisiveness as you appear to be regarding what happens in a presidential election two years away.

[IheartIheartTesla]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

While I'm not sure what this is referring to I think some perspective should be emphasized before everybody loses their minds. 

No one on this board, but some of the more outlandish takes from people like Michael Moore, as well as some friends on Facebook who were asking questions like 'should we even trust polls at this point' - the way people try to convince themselves things will turn out better. 

[DMC]

It should also be noted that Joe Lombardo is not exactly on the steal the election train - one of the reasons it looks like he will win the governorship in Nevada.

1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

some of the more outlandish takes from people like Michael Moore

Moore is optimistic about this cycle?  That's..odd for him.

[Fez]

35 minutes ago, DMC said:

What does "most swing states" mean?  A sweep of both gubernatorial and SoS races is decidedly unlikely - particularly in Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Then you have Georgia where the two Republicans will win, but obviously owe absolutely nothing to Trump or Trumpists.  So, you're really talking about Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.  First, it should be noted if Biden lost those three states, he still would have won the electoral college in 2020.  Second, saying you're going to steal an election and actually pulling it off are two very different things.

These races are very important, but it's foolhardy to grant them as much decisiveness as you appear to be regarding what happens in a presidential election two years away.

Conceding those three states does dramatically raise the degree of difficulty for a Democrat to win the White House. It doesn't render it impossible, so I guess it depends on how we're defining "decisive." But it does seem like it would be an enormous hindrance. 

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

Conceding those three states does dramatically raise the degree of difficulty for a Democrat to win the White House. It doesn't render it impossible, so I guess it depends on how we're defining "decisive." But it does seem like it would be an enormous hindrance. 

Right, if the Democrats have only one realistic path to victory short of a 2008 level blowout, then the Democrats are much, much less likely to win. 

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Fez said:

Conceding those three states does dramatically raise the degree of difficulty for a Democrat to win the White House.

Sure!  But acting like these states are necessarily "conceded" is again a foolish reaction to tonight's election results.  Particularly in Nevada.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Well we’re at 550 as of 5 minutes ago (I’m eating) no more kooks so far.

[JGP]

The youth and women vote is going to have a significant impact and lead to many surprises vs expectations, but that’s my gut talking. 
 

Going to be an interesting, what, week maybe to see how it all shakes out?

[Fez]

Sounds from incomplete data like turnout is strong in Philly and awful in Miami. I'd say "choose your own adventure", but it's entirely possible, even likely, that both these trends are true. Hopefully more cities elsewhere are more like Philly. But we'll see.

[Mindwalker]

If Georgia goes into runoffs, how long would that take?

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

If Georgia goes into runoffs, how long would that take?

Not long at all!

Quote

If a runoff is needed to determine the winning candidate, it is held four weeks after the general election, meaning this year it would fall on Dec. 6, 2022. Under that scenario, early voting would start Nov. 14, just one week after the original election.  

Prior to this year, a runoff for federal offices was held nine weeks after the general election. However, a new bill the Georgia legislature passed in 2021 shortened that period to four weeks.

[Larry of the Lawn]

30 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Well we’re at 550 as of 5 minutes ago (I’m eating) no more kooks so far.

Don't eat all the chili or you won't have any to throw at the kooks, should more arrive.  Fast for freedom!

[LongRider]

Good.

Quote

 

Two leaders of True the Vote, which pushed conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, were jailed Monday for refusing to comply with a court order to provide information in a defamation lawsuit over their claims.

Catherine Engelbrecht and Gregg Phillips were escorted out of the courtroom by Federal Marshals and were ordered to be held for at least one day or "until they fully comply with the Court's Order," U.S. District Judge Kenneth Hoyt wrote.

The two refused to release the name of a person of interest in the defamation and computer hacking case against them, who they claim is a confidential FBI informant, according to Votebeat Texas.

 

Judge throws True the Vote election conspiracists behind bogus voter fraud claims in jail | Salon.com

[Ormond]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Sounds from incomplete data like turnout is strong in Philly and awful in Miami. I'd say "choose your own adventure", but it's entirely possible, even likely, that both these trends are true. Hopefully more cities elsewhere are more like Philly. But we'll see.

I would imagine that Election Day turnout might be suppressed in Florida, especially along the east coast, because of impending Tropical Storm Nicole. Even if the weather isn't bad enough today to prevent people from getting to the polls, some people who might otherwise vote might be distracted by preparing for the storm to hit in the next couple of days.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2022-11-08-hurricane-tropical-storm-nicole-florida-southeast

 

[Mindwalker]

Also, deSatan turned the DOJ election observers away.

[Fez]

Well, the first confirmed election results are mixed news: Democrats have held the governor's mansion in Guam and flipped a seat in the Guam Legislature to expand the Democratic majority to 9-6. https://www.guampdn.com/news/governor-declares-victory-promises-more-progress/article_e67ef38e-5f92-11ed-a83b-7b70dbc50a59.html

On the other hand, Republicans have won the open-seat for Guam's non-voting delegate to the US House for the first time since 1991.

Of course I have no idea what, if any, relation Guam politics have to mainland US politics. So no idea if any tea leaves at all can be read from this. But I do know local Republicans can win there, in fact they had Republican governors from 2003 to 2019.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

We’re at 722 as of 2 minutes ago.  Steady all day long.

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

Also, deSatan turned the DOJ election observers away.

Doesn't sound like that big of a deal:

Quote

Broward County Supervisor Joe Scott said he did not have an issue with DOJ monitoring polling locations, and he was surprised by the state’s objection when he saw it Tuesday morning. But Scott said after discussing it with DOJ election monitors, they agreed to stay outside the polling locations in that county.

“We try to work well with the Secretary of State’s office,” Scott said. “The DOJ people were understanding as well. We’re not trying to pick a fight.”

In a statement, the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections told CNN, “The U.S. Department of Justice has no intention of entering polling places in Miami-Dade County.”

Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections office spokeswoman Alison Novoa told CNN the county will be following the guidance provided by the Department of State Division of Elections.

“The DOJ has indicated to us that they will coordinate with the Department of State and will not attempt to enter the locations,” she said.

 

[Fez]

TBH, I did not know that Dixville Notch, NH released its midterm results early too.

Also had no idea the population had dwindled so much, it used to have 20+ voters.