Twitter… what happens next

[Derfel Cadarn]

49 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

*checks Week's net worth vs Musk's.

 

Week’s parents presumably didn’t own an emerald mine

[Heartofice]

7 minutes ago, Week said:

Feel free to do your own dick measuring contest with Musk, thanks. I'm perfectly comfortable with myself.

Anyone remember the Truth Social pitch deck? I think that was about as batty as this one.

Tell you what, I'll message Elon and tell him that you are willing you give your expert advice on the topic to him, I'm sure he'll be more than happy to listen to what you have to say.

[IheartIheartTesla]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

Everyone is panicking about Musk turning Twitter into some sort of Nazi hell hole, but that says more about them than any facts on the ground. We should look at what Musk has said his plans are for Twitter:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/technology/elon-musk-twitter-pitch-deck.html

I too would sell vaporware if I had to assuage my stakeholders and shareholders that buying Twitter at $54 a share was not a terrible idea. That business plan of his claims to reach 931 million users, which I assume means increasing from India and China as well, good luck dealing with the respective governments there in a 'free-speech hellscape'. Heck, forget oppressive governments, even European nations will start demanding moderation in some form or other so as not to break laws there.

If Twitter is just going to be more of the same except with subscriber checkmarks at $X per month, then there is simply no way of getting to 5X revenue or users or whatever.

[DMC]

17 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Why pay for porn on Twitter when so much of it on the 'net is free?

Using Twitter for porn suggests the heights of laziness even I can't reach.  

[Heartofice]

Just now, IheartIheartTesla said:

 

If Twitter is just going to be more of the same except with subscriber checkmarks at $X per month, then there is simply no way of getting to 5X revenue or users or whatever.

What I'm saying is that it won't be more of the same. People are focussing on the $8 charge for a blue check mark as if that is the whole strategy. There is more than enough evidence that Musk sees a very different direction for Twitter than a simple messaging platform. He's talking about the 'everything app' and using crypto payments as the basis for the whole platform as a way of pushing it in a whole new direction.

Personally I am also very dubious about whether any of these claims will come off, a lot of it aligns too closely to the dreams of 'crypto bros' for me to have any confidence it could work. Point is that the way people are wailing about it shows they have no imagination.. which is probably why they are not Musk.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, Spockydog said:

Fuck you, Red Bull, your drink tastes worse than warm wombat piss.

You know what warm wombat piss tastes like to make the comparison?  
 

[JGP]

11 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Tell you what, I'll message Elon and tell him that you are willing you give your expert advice on the topic to him, I'm sure he'll be more than happy to listen to what you have to say.

I'd already backspaced 4 or 5 responses to this, then:

 

4 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Point is that the way people are wailing about it shows they have no imagination.. which is probably why they are not Musk.

 

lol

 

[mormont]

1 hour ago, 3CityApache said:

But wouldn't making blue checks a purchaseable status symbol automatically downgrade it as a status symbol in the first place? I mean knowing anyone can have it for a few bucks a month should do it, no?

That is the flaw in the reasoning: shortly after you can pay for a check mark, everyone will realise that check marks no longer mean anything.

Which is why Musk has suggested that replies from blue check accounts will be prioritised in every feed.

24 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Why pay for porn on Twitter when so much of it on the 'net is free?

 

Video is already the least liked and least useful feature on Twitter for many regular users. Paywalling it will be a popular move, but not for profitable reasons.

[Kalbear]

This is a good long-form read on what all platforms end up facing and how to speed run your way to the mostly logical conclusion.

The idea, by the way, that you can be a platform that supports free speech and also be a major operator in China is left as an exercise for that big imagination.

https://www.techdirt.com/2022/11/02/hey-elon-let-me-help-you-speed-run-the-content-moderation-learning-curve/

[DMC]

17 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

You know what warm wombat piss tastes like to make the comparison?  
 

 

[Week]

29 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Tell you what, I'll message Elon and tell him that you are willing you give your expert advice on the topic to him, I'm sure he'll be more than happy to listen to what you have to say.

Cool, let me know what is response is. Pics plz.

You seem to be very concerned with giving him advice whereas the rest of us are reading the tea leaves. i.e., What is a plausible conclusion based on his verbalized intent (inconsistent), actions (inconsistent with his verbalized intent), the reaction and trust of users, and how the business model is likely to change based on all those (and other) factors.

The imagination of Musk...? My god. /Simpsons meme of weird nerds diving in front of a gun aimed a 'Musk'

[Week]

[polishgenius]

Elon Musk is a raging moron who's ego has been writing checks he can't cash for years now, except this time in a literal sense. Sometimes his engineers save his arse, most times they can't. This isn't going to be one of those times, because no amount of engineers in the world are going to magic up the fourth-fold growth in userbase that he claims he's aiming for. That's 'we're gonna reach Mars by 2024' level bullshit. 

[Wade1865]

As a point of reference, Forbes reported Elon was worth $219 billion USD at some point in 2022, the first time he reached the top spot. As the richest person in the world, even if he lost everything invested into Twitter, he'd still retain the top spot. Even Jeff, who was worth $171 billion, would remain in second place or lower. And although the running estimate reveals Elon's net worth has since dropped to $205 billion, he'd still be the richest.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

As a point of reference, Forbes reported Elon was worth $219 billion USD at some point in 2022, the first time he reached the top spot. As the richest person in the world, even if he lost everything invested into Twitter, he'd still retain the top spot. Even Jeff, who was worth $171 billion, would remain in second place or lower. And although the running estimate reveals Elon's net worth has since dropped to $205 billion, he'd still be the richest.

This is ignoring the depreciating value of his other assets that would most certainly be an effect of such a spectacular failure.

[Wade1865]

 

1 minute ago, DMC said:

This is ignoring the depreciating value of his other assets that would most certainly be an effect of such a spectacular failure.

DMC -- I can't ignore what hasn't been realized. When Twitter collapses (if it does), I'll be the first to acknowledge it. Remember, this is only the first time Elon has reached the top spot, he's bound to find himself less rich at some point for any reason (just like Jeff, Bill, Warren, et al.).

He's getting pressed from many points including the USG. It'll be fascinating to see how he counters everything as an individual with substantial assets.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

I can't ignore what hasn't been realized.

Sure you can.  You posed a hypothetical that hasn't been realized and ignored a glaring logical aspect of such a hypothetical.

[Old Zog]

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

We should look at what Musk has said his plans are for Twitter:

 

Quintuple revenue to $26.4 billion by 2028.

Cut Twitter’s reliance on advertising to less than 50 percent of revenue.

Produce $15 million in revenue from a payments business.

Reach 931 million users by 2028.

Have 104 million subscribers for a mysterious X by 2028.

Hire 3,600 employees — after shedding hundreds.

Raise free cash flow to $9.4 billion.

 

With the exception of the number of employees, these are goals, not plans. Musk does have a habit of setting ambitions goals and not reaching them, so I hope you'll understand if many of us remain skeptical of his ability to deliver on these goals.

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Everyone is panicking about Musk turning Twitter into some sort of Nazi hell hole,

When will Matt Walsh get banned for maliciously misgendering trans people and committing libel against children’s hospitals?

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

but that says more about them than any facts on the ground.

“No you’re the racist for saying I’m trying to cater to racists!”

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

In his pitch deck, Mr. Musk claimed he would increase Twitter’s annual revenue to $26.4 billion by 2028, up from $5 billion last year.

 

It’s a bit odd the first thing you bring up in to try to showcase the absurdity of musk making Twitter a Nazi hellscape is him declaring he’s going to make a profit off it.

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

*checks Week's net worth vs Musk's.

 

This doesn’t really help prove you’re not a Musk fanboi and not an elitist by declaring a criticism of his businesses isn’t valid because it’s coming  from a poor.

In the future, please just stick to attacking the merit of the criticism.

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

The big one I think is that Musk sees the platform as a payments platform rather than an advertising model. I've seen numerous people discuss the idea that he wants to introduce Crypto into verification processes to allow a much more secure platform that links into payments as well.

Lots of other evidence for that is that the team he's brought in are a mix of Paypal and crypto friends.


 

Right it won’t just be a Nazi hellscape but also a grifter’s paradise.

[Zorral]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

 What will Musk do with his new toy?

Continue to undermine free speech, fair elections, democracy and grift the public globally, while spreading LIES, the conviction that cruelty is The Sport that proves one is powerful and manly, and women are stupid and need to be -- well we won't use the words here. Not to mention spying on every user, gathering all the private information on them possible, and selling it to whomever can afford to buy. Best political tool for billionaire nazis evah.