A Horse Named Stranger Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Since you lot were too lazy to come up with a new tread title, you will get my early morning pun. Title open for channge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 Wow, just checked Arizona races. Governor, SOS and AG, and Kelly of course. All of them look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: Wow, just checked Arizona races. Governor, SOS and AG, and Kelly of course. All of them look good. Don't try to make this thread happen. To infinity with the old one!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 You think I need to get a Florida is awful and DMC lives there joke in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 So the Democrat wins governor in Pennsylvania but Oz might win the senate. Aren't the voters for both exactly the same? Who is ticking D for Gov and R for Senate? Or were some R's ticking Shapiro because they thought they were voting for Ben? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 PA Senate race has been called for Fetterman by NBC. Your post is mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horangi Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 And Fox calls Fetterman for PA. I appreciate your condolences for listening through this last 30 minutes. ETA And yes, my post is now mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 The red tsunami appears to have become a red piss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 22 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: So the Democrat wins governor in Pennsylvania but Oz might win the senate. Aren't the voters for both exactly the same? Who is ticking D for Gov and R for Senate? Or were some R's ticking Shapiro because they thought they were voting for Ben? Voters sometimes split the ticket, especially for governors (which in general are more moderate races and have to do with the person) and senate. In fettermans case I think a lot of people knew who Oz was and were concerned about his post stroke behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: You think I need to get a Florida is awful and DMC lives there joke in? You do! Because there's a very real chance that if dems ran less shitty and more impressive candidates at the top of the ticket in Florida they could have kept the house and expanded the senate, which would be an amazing result. But Florida had to suck, and that's all dmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said: But Florida had to suck, and that's all dmc. Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Not me grinning like an idiot watching Fetterman’s victory speech. I think Warnock carries a run off vote. Amazing night, imo. Glad for all y’all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkess Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Even 1 election denying twat in office is too many, but things could have been a LOT worse here. Now just waiting to see how the 1000 propositions I had to vote on today turned out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 I’m trying to understand what’s going on in NY. Is that Cuomo’s fault? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 McCarthy didn’t even tweak his speech and Ronna looked like she was going to cry lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceChampion Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said: Some of the 'Left' types commenting on that article are sounding a tad militant. Then again, the R's...this could get messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Week Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 I can't wait for all the Big Dumps (tm) discussion that is sure to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 As we wait on Arizona and Nevada, I think there are two important takeaways from tonight (well, three, but the third is simply DeSantis bought Florida). First, the idea that ticket-splitting isn't a thing with extreme polarization is completely contradicted by the results. Candidate quality still matters, and we saw this difference in virtually every swing state with both a Senate and gubernatorial race to some extent - Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, even Ohio, and of course New Hampshire. You can throw Oregon in there too. Second, 538 are currently patting themselves on the back saying the polls and their forecast worked, but that's really not the case. Importantly, the polls - or at least final polling average - significantly underestimated Dems in many key races. And particularly "lean" races. Highlighted by New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington, the victories are far greater than 538's polling average anticipated. In terms of actual tossups, they were significantly off in Pennsylvania and even slightly underestimated the Dems in Wisconsin - in addition to being about 3 points off underestimating Evers in the gubernatorial race. Moreover their "forecast" was clearly off. They had Budd (82) having a better chance of winning than Hassan (72), when the latter won by twice the margin. They had Oz with a 57% chance and Walker with a 63% chance. They had Johnson with an 81% chance - which hasn't been called yet - compared to Bennett with a 91% chance, who was called the winner instantly and is currently leading by 12. This demonstration isn't to shit on 538 (well, not too much), but to emphasize both the "experts" and the polls underestimated Dem performance. Which highlights that the error of polling and conventional wisdom can still go both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Week said: I can't wait for all the Big Dumps (tm) discussion that is sure to come! Right on time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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