US Politics: Fate of congress hangs in the Ballots

[Maithanet]

14 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Pretty much this.

My understanding is, that Kelly will win his race in AZ, but NV will flip.

Do it again Raph. 

I don't think we can say that about AZ or NV.  It isn't even out of the question that we get both CCM and Masters winning. 

The good thing about GA is that Warnock is ahead in spite of Kemp winning fairly comfortably.  It seems logical that without Kemp on the ballot, some Republicans aren't going to show up in December.  Obviously there are other factors in play, but a lot of people consider Warnock the favorite in a runoff. 

[Martell Spy]

It looks like Kim Schrier is winning to hold her seat in Washington's 8th, but it's not called yet. She was my rep last time, but I can't vote for her now as I moved out of the district. There was a lot of media talk here that Schrier would lose and that has not happened (Also lots of even stupider chatter that Patty Murray would lose the senate seat, and of course that didn't happen)

And a real surprise, Perez has a slight lead in Washington's 3rd. That could still go either way though.

 

 

 

[Fez]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

I don't think we can say that about AZ or NV.  It isn't even out of the question that we get both CCM and Masters winning. 

The good thing about GA is that Warnock is ahead in spite of Kemp winning fairly comfortably.  It seems logical that without Kemp on the ballot, some Republicans aren't going to show up in December.  Obviously there are other factors in play, but a lot of people consider Warnock the favorite in a runoff. 

If AZ and NV both go the same way, either way that is, I do wonder what it would do to turnout in the GA runoff; since it would no longer decide senate control. My theory is that it would make Warnock more favored, since the Republicans holding their nose to vote for Walker could more easily sit out the race.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

If AZ and NV both go the same way, either way that is, I do wonder what it would do to turnout in the GA runoff; since it would no longer decide senate control. My theory is that it would make Warnock more favored, since the Republicans holding their nose to vote for Walker could more easily sit out the race.

I agree.  Hard to get motived to vote for Walker when he is such an unappealing man.  He is relying almost 100% on party loyalty to win. 

[Martell Spy]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I agree.  Hard to get motived to vote for Walker when he is such an unappealing man.  He is relying almost 100% on party loyalty to win. 

It would seem quality candidates would have served Republicans better than a bunch of fake polls showing you have already won and a bunch of election deniers.

[DMC]

40 minutes ago, Fez said:

No idea what the state's tiebreaking procedures are, but the state doesn't have a Lt. Gov. position, so that's not the answer.

There's interestingly been a lot of deadlocked legislatures over the last 55 years.  It's pretty fun reading all the different methods of resolving the issue, but I don't see New Hampshire's method mentioned there and can't find anything on a quick search - even though their Senate was tied in 1978. 

49 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Just checked in on the AZ races.

Space Kelly and Fontes still look good.

Hobbs 11k vote lead over Lake any good, or not enough?

With the vast majority of the outstanding votes coming from Maricopa and Pima counties, it's very difficult to imagine Kelly and Fontes losing their leads.  Hobbs' lead, OTOH, would be lost if the remaining votes follow the pattern of the 2020 contest.  However, nobody really has any idea if it will follow that pattern - which was pretty extraordinarily extreme irt GOP-leaning votes.  I'd just label the governor race a tossup for the time being.

45 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Guess who claims he'll be making perhaps "the most important speech in the history of the United States of America" in Florida on November 15.

Yeah he basically announced that..announcement on Monday night.  Wondering if he's rethinking things today.

 

[Zorral]

One also wonders, re the 15th, after Florida is creamed by Tropical Storm Nichole, which is to be a hurricane, They Say, when it hits Florida.

[Maithanet]

6 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

It would seem quality candidates would have served Republicans better than a bunch of fake polls showing you have already won and a bunch of election deniers.

I've no doubt that "generic Republican" would have won a bunch of races Republicans lost last night.  But there are many reasons why Republicans didn't get a "generic Republican".  

1.  The Republican primary electorate is completely batshit.  Here's a local example for me in Maryland, where Hogan (R) was reelected in 2018 because Marylanders like his moderate, civil approach to governing.  Hogan endorsed and campaigned for Kelly Shultz, who was also relatively moderate (by Republican standards).  But Trump endorsed Dan Cox, who is absolutely batshit and attended the Jan 6 rally, and so Cox won.  Cox is totally out of step with Maryland, and lost last night by 23 points.  Would Shultz have won?  Probably not, but she definitely wouldn't have lost by 20+.  Hogan is really popular and he wouldn't even campaign for Cox.

2.  Abortion made all Republicans answer uncomfortable questions.  Rape/Incest exceptions in particular could not be avoided and it is the kind of question that Republicans would much rather not answer. 

3.  Any Republican with any integrity wouldn't run knowing they'd have to polish Trump's turds in order to win election, and probably continue doing so in office.  Thus the best and brightest Republicans are staying in the private sector.  Hence you get guys like Herschel Walker who is a terrible candidate by almost any metric. 

[kissdbyfire]

22 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah he basically announced that..announcement on Monday night.  Wondering if he's rethinking things today.

There’s this:

And of course, it’s never his fault so picking Oz is on others, including Melania.

 

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Hogan is really popular and he wouldn't even campaign for Cox.

Hogan straight up called Cox a wackjob.

[Zorral]

AOC lays it all out -- Dems did badly in NY BECAUSE of Dems, particularly Cuomo.

 

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Zorral said:

AOC lays it all out -- Dems did badly in NY BECAUSE of Dems, particularly Cuomo.

It's interesting that it looks like BOTH parties are going to come out of this election feeling like they missed a huge opportunity. 

[Maithanet]

If the Dems hold the House....oh boy.  I would be shocked.  And delighted. 

Still think something like 220-215 R House is the most likely outcome, but it's amazing that after the gloom and doom of yesterday and the initial  bloodbath in Florida that this is where we are. 

[DMC]

59 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

@DMC,

Getting back to something I didn't respond to, could you clarify your disagreement with me writ Florida being competitive going forward? 

Because Florida and national Dems should absolutely not consider the state a "goner" moving forward.  If only for the very obvious reason you don't abandon the third largest state in the country when you only lost the last presidential contest by 3.5%.  I was mainly objecting to your language, but I saw enough morons on MSNBC (including Scarborough of course) echoing this that I was going to reiterate anyway.

There's every reason to consider last night's results as an outlier.  Not just recent results - including of course the fact both DeSantis and Scott won by less than a percentage point in 2018.  But also the fact Rick Scott is not particularly popular and has won by no more than 1.2% in three straight statewide elections.  And it's Scott who will be on the ballot in 2024.  Unless DeSantis is the presidential nominee, he won't be on a Florida ballot again until at least 2028.

And DeSantis' financial advantage cannot be understated.  The fundraising numbers are well known, and while it's true DeSantis wisely saved a lot of that for a presidential run, he outspent Crist on advertising $62 to $8 million.  I don't need to look it up to know that's the most disproportionate spending advantage on "competitive" races in the history of American elections, and probably by a wide margin. 

Plus, I mentioned this on here and to you when Crist won the primary and repeated it last night - the lack of enthusiasm, and subsequent effectively conceding the race (and really both races), among Florida Dem operatives was something I've never seen before.  Consequently turnout was indeed down 4 percent compared to 2018.  That's very unlikely to happen during a presidential cycle, and obviously it shouldn't.

I'm not saying I think the Dems will come back in 2024 or even 2026.  But you need to continue to mount a credible challenge in the state if only to ensure the GOP still allocates resources in the state instead of treating it like Alabama.  Failure to do so would be a devastating tactical error.  The only caveat I'd put on that is again, if DeSantis does win the presidential nomination, yeah, maybe you just gotta eat it down the stretch run and cut bait.

[LongRider]

I was wondering about this;

 

[LongRider]

And wondering about this too.  The kids are alright! 

 

[Maithanet]

Update on NV ballots outstanding.  TLDR:

- There are some rural counties with votes outstanding, some where vote is complete.  Probably not a ton of votes left there. 

 - There are 57k mail ballots from Washoe County (Reno).  That is a big number, and since it's all mail it's probably Dem leaning, although perhaps not dramatically so (Washoe is less Democratic than Clark County). 

 - Clark County (Vegas) will make a statement, presumably about how many outstanding ballots there are, at 11:30 (one hour from now).  There is a ton of speculation about what that number is.  If it's 100k or more, than CCM has a good shot (maybe enough to be the favorite).  If it's well shy of 100k, then things get much tougher for her.  Per Ralson, the governor's race is looking dicey unless the number is north of 100k AND the Dems crush it with the remaining votes. 

 

 

[kissdbyfire]

 

7 minutes ago, LongRider said:

I was wondering about this;

Yeah, I think the issue w/ abortion rights played a much bigger role than most pundits and polls said it would. Most were saying the issue had peaked during the summer but that it wasn’t going to be as important as inflation etc. And how incredibly condescending of anyone who said/thought that, like women are just gonna let something like this go. 
And of course, Gen Z FTW. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

The creepy af Fox news woman fails in her Arizona hijack bid. We all are enriched today by such outcomes.

Also still hoping Boebert is getting bounced in Colorado, but as of last night they were saying "Too close to call".

Just holding the Senate is a decent V considering the historic trend for a Presidents incumbent midterm results.

Its a surprising "Red trickle" of underwhelming performance for the Trumpist pukes.

[Zorral]

14 minutes ago, LongRider said:

wondering about this too.  The kids are alright! 

 

AOC has pointed out this specifically too.  Even in NYC it would have been far worse if the younger gens hadn't turned out like they did -- in a city where the registered voters are largely 50 and over.  Same with the latino vote.