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US Politics: Fate of congress hangs in the Ballots


A Horse Named Stranger

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4 hours ago, Gorn said:

What happened in the New York state? Florida got all the headlines, but Democratic congressional candidates seem to have had a pretty bad night there as well. It's supposed to be a solid blue state.

Long story short: earlier in the year a judge shot down the new NY house districts and redrew with one that was maybe a bit "too fair" to Republicans. Not just in shape, but in forcing some House reps who had been in territories to suddenly represent new areas or forced longtime Dem incumbents to compete against each other for seats.

Other issues were copraganda about a crime wave, backlash about issues that most people don't get (see: bail reform) and several districts on Long Island, which for a long time had been getting vote totals that went something like 52-48 Democrat but which had been trending Trumpy for years suddenly flipped that and went something closer to 52-48 Republican.

It's probably just an unusually good cycle for the GOP, aided by having a lot of unknowns on the ballot.

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32 minutes ago, Fez said:

Well, we'll find out eventually. And if anyone knows the dimensions of the boxes used in the county clerk's office we could do some envelope math now:

LOL.  I've only slept for about 90 minutes and even I think this is overdoing it.  A simpler way to look at it is the expected vote and assuming it's relatively accurate.  Clark is at 84.3% in with a little less than 600 thousand total votes.  So, that'd be about 90 thousand ballots.

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On the other hand, AZ's neighboring border state of New Mexico did itself up proud: Dems nearly across the entire board.

The idiots being White males mostly, seem to think that women only think about reproduction, contraception, pregnancy, childbirth and child raising maybe once or twice in their lifetime, between the ages of 20 and 30. So of course they'd forget all about the SCOTUS and the reich's implementation for them being pregnant and or dying their entire lives.

 

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2 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

Any chances it could completely destroy Mar-a-Lardo? Just asking as a concerned world citizen.

 

Probably only if it spawns a tornado (which hurricanes do sometimes) that directly hits Mar-a-Lago. So a chance, but a very small one.

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14 minutes ago, Fez said:

Dark Brandon rides once more!

Enjoy it while it lasts! Soon he'll simper after his "friends across the aisle" and praise the honor and integrity of McConnell again.

I suspect Boebert is going to win in the end, but it's nice while it lasts...

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1 minute ago, ThinkerX said:

Okay, I'm trying to figure something out here -

If Boebert loses, does that mean the D's retain control of the House? Or just give the R's an even narrower majority?

The Democrats margin for error on getting to 218 is pretty slim, so if they are going to actually take the House they need to pull off upsets like winning CO-3. 

The most likely result is the R's having a narrower majority. 

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3 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Okay, I'm trying to figure something out here -

If Boebert loses, does that mean the D's retain control of the House? Or just give the R's an even narrower majority?

 

There are way more seats than Boebert's still undecided, so this question cannot be answered. See Maithanet's answer above, too. 

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Honestly it's much more ideal for the Dems to have the GOP with a 220-215 majority in the House than holding on to a 220-215 majority themselves.  There's not much of a legislative agenda left that can get through reconciliation anyway unless another stimulus is needed (definitely doesn't seem on the horizon) or they can miraculously turn around Manchema on the child tax credit (fat chance); and his legislative accomplishments are already more than sufficient for a single term. 

Let the GOP share responsibility attribution in the lead up to the presidential and sit back and laugh at McCarthy trying to handle his absolutely batshit caucus with a razor thin majority.  And keep on confirming judges in the Senate, gods willing.

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7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Honestly it's much more ideal for the Dems to have the GOP with a 220-215 majority in the House than holding on to a 220-215 majority themselves.  There's not much of a legislative agenda left that can get through reconciliation anyway unless another stimulus is needed (definitely doesn't seem on the horizon) or they can miraculously turn around Manchema on the child tax credit (fat chance); and his legislative accomplishments are already more than sufficient for a single term. 

Let the GOP share responsibility attribution in the lead up to the presidential and sit back and laugh at McCarthy trying to handle his absolutely batshit caucus with a razor thin majority.  And keep on confirming judges in the Senate, gods willing.

That sounds like a recipe for gridlock.

However, would not control of both the House and the Senate give the D's the possibility for modest legislative accomplishments? Tiny slices of BBB tacked in here and there, for example?

 

 

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Just now, ThinkerX said:

That sounds like a recipe for gridlock.

 

Welcome to America!  And it's effectively not any different than if they won the House by such a margin.  The GOP is still gonna confront them on the budget and debt ceiling regardless - before the next Congress starts, even.

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Quote

 

Quote Tweet
Joel Wertheimer
@Wertwhile

Another New York sex pest fucking things up

The odds that Andrew Cuomo cost Democrats the House is reasonably high right now.

 

 Because of a deal he made in 2012.

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