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US Politics: Fate of congress hangs in the Ballots


A Horse Named Stranger

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13 minutes ago, DMC said:

That's a bold move, Cotton.

Honestly I though nine months was rather generous. I wouldn't bet over six weeks if my life depended on it. 

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

I wish!  That usually doesn't start for me til about 45-50 hours of sleeplessness.  And I did get an hour and a half late this morning.

Go to bed dawg. 

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3 minutes ago, DMC said:

You're not my supervisor!

Friends help friends. Even if that means hitting them with hard objects in the back of the head to get them to sleep.

Totally not a crime if your heart's in the right place.

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24 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s a recount… at minimum.

I'm anticipating months of recounts and lawsuits ala what happened with Al Franken after the 2008 election if it stays that close. And being that it's Boebert, there may be a lot more than that with election denial and such.

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Result: CT-05, the only close House race in Connecticut and my new home since I move earlier in the year, is being called by the AP for Democrat Jahana Hayes. The gap between her and GOP challenger Logan was as low as 300 votes early today, but as more votes came in it eventually got close to 2,000. Some mail-in and provisional ballots will still trickle in, so it's not quite official yet, but it looks like a big hold for Democrats.

And another one: the newly created Colorado 8th district has gone blue.

 

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2 hours ago, Zorral said:

I just love how -- NOT! -- every daymed pundit and media blabber mouth who have been blabbering for weeks now how the Dems will be unforgettably beaten the shyte out of them by redwave are now telling us why that didn't happen.  I HATE THE MEDIA.

For what little it might be worth, I have been saying here and elsewhere for the past year that the D's would do better than expected. Much of that has to do with demographics. Most conservatives are older folk who treated the covid pandemic as a conspiracy theory and died in droves as a result. 

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

So anyone wanna take a stab on how long McCarthy can last/stand it as Speaker of the nightmare group of evil petulant children (Damiens?)?  Boehner lasted 58 months, Ryan 38.  Don't wanna go geometric progression, but 18 months sounds like a fun over/under.

You actually believe McCarthy will actually get to be Speaker...?

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46 minutes ago, DMC said:

Particularly since, per Ralston, 57k of that is coming from Washoe where CCM is currently losing by 4% or about 5k votes.

However, I saw via a Nate Silver post that the NYT needle had CCM winning by 0.4%.  I don't pay for that shit - anyone know where the needle is at now?

For the former, maybe the hope is that the later Washoe stuff is from Democrats doing their last minute stuff. 

For the latter, I could access the NYT needle without needing to pay (did have to recover my login somehow, but I think they offer the main Needle page for free, just as in 2020. May have to pay for other aspects of NYT election coverage though). Unfortunately it was frozen at 4 AM last night with CCM up 0.4, which was based off a blend of actual votes counted (77%) + projections from outstanding votes, which can have some hefty error bars to it.

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1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I think they offer the main Needle page for free, just as in 2020. May have to pay for other aspects of NYT election coverage though

Yeah I think you might be right about that but figured I'd depend on your kindness, thanks.

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21 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

You actually believe McCarthy will actually get to be Speaker...?

My dream contest for Speaker is a cage match between McCarthy and MTG.  

:fencing:

Right now, I'd call it a toss-up!

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New Mexico's second district might be about to flip from R to D, which would make all 3 of NM's seats blue.

I'm keeping an eye on the AZ 6th. Republican David Schweikart has been holding office since 2010 and survived close races in the last few elections (about 55-45 in 2018 and 52-48 in 2020), he's currently trailing by a few thousand votes there.

And I'm sure this got posted here at some point before I dropped in, but for your amusement:

 

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Hobbs netted nearly five thousand in the 61k Maricopa drop.  Be awesome if she can pull that off.  Kelly netted even more, and Fontes is running just behind him.  Both of them should be fine.  Aguilar is only 4600 votes behind in the Nevada SoS race too...

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