maarsen Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Gorn said: What is the context? The quoted sentence, by itself, is a factually correct statement. The problem is that the peoples who came were also constantly at war with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Is Palin attempting to claim victory in Alaska? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corvinus85 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 2024 look out! I'll be voting, too. I became a US citizen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Is Palin attempting to claim victory in Alaska? I mean, she complains in the video that we might not know the results until Thanksgiving. Looking it up, she clarified in a press release that she's "anticipating" victory. Which..is fine. So now I'm pretty pissed at you, Scot, for making me watch a 2 minute video of Sarah Palin. Although I did like how she referred to Alaska as the "Fort Knox of America" in regards to energy resources. Where does she think Fort Knox is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said: 2024 look out! I'll be voting, too. I became a US citizen today. Congratulations citizen! <<<<< pretend it's a USA flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Looks like boebert is gonna hang on. Big drop from the more democratic part of the district was apparently election day votes, and increased her lead. Now she's up 1200 votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted November 10, 2022 Author Share Posted November 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Looks like boebert is gonna hang on. Big drop from the more democratic part of the district was apparently election day votes, and increased her lead. Now she's up 1200 votes. It was fun while it lasted, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: It was fun while it lasted, tho. Perhaps it will lead to a primary challenge for a more conventional, less terrible Republican. Like with cawthorn. We can hope anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Looks like boebert is gonna hang on. Big drop from the more democratic part of the district was apparently election day votes, and increased her lead. Now she's up 1200 votes. Be interesting to see if she can avoid the 0.5% automatic trigger. Looks like there's about 320 thousand total votes, so right now that'd be >1600 votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 3 hours ago, Zorral said: This run of "success" raised the profile of right-wing pollsters and caused the media to become less skeptical. The New York Times noted that while traditional media organizations cut back on the number of polls they commissioned, "there has been a wave of polls by firms like the Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Reports, Insider Advantage and others that have tended to produce much more Republican-friendly results than the traditional pollsters." These Republican pollsters do not "adhere to industry standards for transparency or data collection." This is true and I'll get to it in a second, but I think it's important to emphasize - because there does seem to be a lot of whining about polling again (shocker!) - that the polls, on average, weren't that bad. Can't tell for sure yet obviously, but it appears it will be another average polling error. It's just the error went the Dems' way, which after 2016 and 2020 many people mistakenly believed wasn't possible. Moreover, the "traditional" polls actually did really fucking well this cycle. So, hopefully that's a lesson. Now, it is true that traditional, "Grade A" pollsters produced far fewer rounds than previous cycles - and that vacuum was filled by your Trafalgars and Insider Advantages flooding the dataset. Silver poo-pooed this being a problem on Monday (I think) because 538's model accounts for the pollsters' bias. And he's right! The model should correct for this - that's the point of constructing a sophisticated model. But it's pretty clear his model failed to do so, at least not to the extent it should. And more importantly, it's very difficult to do so when you're getting so many more data points from these rather nakedly partisan firms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 52 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Looks like boebert is gonna hang on. Big drop from the more democratic part of the district was apparently election day votes, and increased her lead. Now she's up 1200 votes. Maybe not: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Per the NYT there may yet be hope for Frisch: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-colorado-us-house-district-3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Corvinus85 said: 2024 look out! I'll be voting, too. I became a US citizen today. Recognizing that Die Hard is a Christmas movie better have been on the test! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 2 hours ago, LongRider said: Congratulations citizen! <<<<< pretend it's a USA flag Can't resist: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 So Clark County revised the amount of outstanding ballots from 70k to 50k. That's..gonna make it much harder for Cortez Masto to make up the margin there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corvinus85 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Recognizing that Die Hard is a Christmas movie better have been on the test! My answer to that was "Must you ask?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said: My answer to that was "Must you ask?" Citizenship question number two I hope you answered correctly: When did The Simpsons stop being a great show? Let DHS deal with that nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, DMC said: So Clark County revised the amount of outstanding ballots from 70k to 50k. That's..gonna make it much harder for Cortez Masto to make up the margin there. Actually, it sounds like what the county clerk meant was that there 50k uncounted ballots, and that there's another 20k-ish ballots that have been counted but haven't been reported yet. Meanwhile, in AZ, there was another good drop from Pima county (and importantly has about 140k more ballots to still report) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 I got ninja'd, because I was just about to post that tweet from Ralston. Boy what a mess this post-election counting is turning out to be for Nevada. Regarding Arizona, it still looks like Kelly will pull it off. Maybe I should just have frozen myself too at 4 AM EST on 11/9 and stopped looking at updates, instead trusting the Needle hybrid projection to be gospel rather than subject myself to this slow torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, Fez said: Actually, it sounds like what the county clerk meant was that there 50k uncounted ballots, and that there's another 20k-ish ballots that have been counted but haven't been reported yet. ...Ok, so Kornacki is saying now he's assuming the 26k was counting what was released last night and just now - just under 12 thousand - combined. Leaving 56k votes from Clark. Anyway, the just released votes saw 61/34 split to cut the lead to 12,671. If all that is true, it's gonna be very, very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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