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US Politics: Fate of congress hangs in the Ballots


A Horse Named Stranger

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12 hours ago, DMC said:

Now, it is true that traditional, "Grade A" pollsters produced far fewer rounds than previous cycles - and that vacuum was filled by your Trafalgars and Insider Advantages flooding the dataset.  Silver poo-pooed this being a problem on Monday (I think) because 538's model accounts for the pollsters' bias.  And he's right!  The model should correct for this - that's the point of constructing a sophisticated model.  But it's pretty clear his model failed to do so, at least not to the extent it should.  And more importantly, it's very difficult to do so when you're getting so many more data points from these rather nakedly partisan firms.

He also explicitly said that since (paraphrasing) Insider Advantage and Trafalgar were willing to publish their final polls and Monmouth was not, he believed the former had more confidence in their results than the latter. My suspicion is that 538 (or Silver) decided apriori that the Republicans would have a good night and may have subconciously tweaked their model to confirm this. Silver's posts leading up to the election seeed to be building up to this theme. I'll still go to them for aggregated data, but since 2020 I've taken their color commentary with a pinch of salt.

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9 hours ago, DMC said:

Maricopa just dropped their new batch - 75k votes.  Looks like it will stretch Kelly's lead to about 114k and change.  That's a big enough lead to handle the remaining 290k.  I'm personally calling that one.

Wasserman agrees with you, "seen enough" etc.

I'm feeling better about CCM too after seeing that Washoe drop, but am still nervous about how many rural ballots might be out.

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@DMC @Tywin et al. @Fez

I had a thought:

Trump is unhinged in his attacks on establishment Republicans.  

This is a seriously long shot… what happens if Trumpanistas actually split from the Republican Party?  Would Republicans still retain control of the House (assuming they have a majority when all votes are counted)?  Could a splintered Republican Party hand control of the HOR back to the Democrats?

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58 minutes ago, Fez said:

Wasserman agrees with you, "seen enough" etc.

I'm feeling better about CCM too after seeing that Washoe drop, but am still nervous about how many rural ballots might be out.

It's Nevada, rural ballots are insignificant part of the total amount. Few people choose to live in a desert wasteland for some reason.

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3 minutes ago, Gorn said:

It's Nevada, rural ballots are insignificant part of the total amount. Few people choose to live in a desert wasteland for some reason.

My back-of the envelope math is:

Laxalt's lead is currently +9k

Washoe has ~23k ballots left. If similar to last night's drop (which seems reasonable), that'll be about +5.8k for CCM

Clark probably has ~50k ballots left. If similar to last night's drop (which wasn't as good Wed.), that'll be about +11.5k for CCM

Douglas has about ~7k ballots left and is the largest chunk of rural vote left. Hopefully these are mail-in ballots that are more blue than the current vote, but assuming they are the same will be about +2.3k for Laxalt.

It's not known precisely how many other rural votes are left, but a decent estimate is anther 5k. If they break basically the way the currently countedd rural votes have, it might be a 70/30 break for Laxalt; netting him another 2k 

That all results in about a 4k statewide win for CCM.

So it's a very important question just how many rural votes are left out there, and how much (if any) bluer are they than the election-day votes. Likewise, just how blue are the remaining Clark county votes; if they're closer to Wed., that would be another +6k votes for CCM and make her lead much safer at +10k.

It's also unclear how many votes Carson city has left, or how blue they are. The mail-in votes reported yesterday were a full 31% to the left of election day, and actually netted CCM votes. So that's another variable; could be a few hundred more votes for CCM.

Full disclaimer, I certainly could've screwed up my math somewhere.

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1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

He also explicitly said that since (paraphrasing) Insider Advantage and Trafalgar were willing to publish their final polls and Monmouth was not, he believed the former had more confidence in their results than the latter.

While I don't think he subconsciously tweaked his model (you literally can't "subconsciously" tweak a statistical model unless you did it while sleepwalking or something), I agree this is the problem.  Silver, as an economist, seems to have a "market based" view on firms and rewards them accordingly.  This goes to the article Zorral quoted's point that his model crudely rewards prior/recent success.  What he seems to sometimes ignore in his commentary and clearly undervalue in his model is rewarding firms that demonstrate sound (and transparent) methodology - which is gallingly ironic considering what he's doing.

26 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

This is a seriously long shot… what happens if Trumpanistas actually split from the Republican Party?  Would Republicans still retain control of the House (assuming they have a majority when all votes are counted)?  Could a splintered Republican Party hand control of the HOR back to the Democrats?

I don't reallly understand the question.  Trumpists in Congress are not going to abandon the Republican caucus, no.  We're just basically at the same point we were in the summer/fall of 2015 - when the GOP establishment and the Murdochs were trying to oust him - except obviously now Trump has many more allies in Congress.  And just like then, Trump's key advantage is the winner-take-all format of most Republican primaries.  The only difference is now we all know that's his key advantage.  So I suppose the question is can the establishment coalesce/clear the field in time to overcome that advantage?  It's obviously not going to happen immediately - it'd have to be something similar to Obama stepping in after South Carolina and convincing Klobuchar and Buttigieg to drop out. 

The problem is the GOP doesn't have anyone with the stature of Obama other than Trump himself.  The obvious analogue would be Dubya, but lol, he's closer to Jimmy Carter's influence on the Democratic party at this point.  And it ain't McConnell.  Not to mention, waiting until after South Carolina may very well be too late for them.  We'll see - maybe this will really be the point where enough establishment leaders actually aggressively take on Trump publicly.  But if they didn't do that after a violent coup attempt, hard to see that happening now.

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54 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

This is a seriously long shot… what happens if Trumpanistas actually split from the Republican Party?  Would Republicans still retain control of the House (assuming they have a majority when all votes are counted)?  Could a splintered Republican Party hand control of the HOR back to the Democrats?

While Trump is still popular amongst the unwashed masses, the reason he was popular in the GoP (as in the party itself) was because he was a 'winner'. I seriously doubt anyone among the so-called elites was a fan of his garbled ideology. The chance of them splintering to form a new party is less than zero now that his picks had a horrible midterm. He's now responsible for 3 consecutive losses.

The only one who can splinter the GoP is Trump himself. He might still get the support of about 50% of registered Republicans based on some recent polling.

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8 minutes ago, DMC said:

But if they didn't do that after a violent coup attempt, hard to see that happening now.

However, Trump is attacking and attempting to damage DeSantis (who scares me more than Trump in many ways).  DeSantis is the golden boy of the “Establishment” Republicans… it’s who the Establishment Republicans want to run in 2024.  Trump is coming unhinged and is targeting all prominent Republicans not living the 2020 lie.  If the Establishment Republicans refuse to get back into the “Trumpanista boat” will Trump take his shit and go elsewhere?

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2 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

The only one who can splinter the GoP is Trump himself. He might still get the support of about 50% of registered Republicans based on some recent polling.

Precisely.  That’s what I’m speculating might happen.  Trump bolts and takes his “lumpen proletariat” with him… including elected Representatives.

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The ‘armed and gay’ Senate hopeful who helped force Georgia’s runoff | US midterm elections 2022 | The Guardian
 

Quote

Libertarian Chase Oliver, 37, managed 81,000 votes despite raising just $8,000

Oliver was the third candidate in Georgia’s US Senate race: a pro-gun, anti-cop, pro-choice Libertarian who proudly announces himself as the state’s first LGBTQ+ candidate – “armed and gay”, he boasts. And on Tuesday night, this surprise spoiler scored an historic upset of sorts, siphoning enough support away from the Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger Herschel Walker to force the election to a 6 December runoff – Georgia’s second in as many election cycles.

I didnt realize he was this kind of Libertarian, so now I'm confused as to whether he siphoned off Warnock supporters or centrist Republicans who couldnt stand to vote for Walker. Anyway, a dime per vote is pretty good ROI, we could cap campaign contributions at $12 million for the entire United States.

Edit: 

Quote

Inside, more Oliver lawn signs and posters share wall space with portraits of members of Star Trek’s Starfleet.

I think I would have voted for him if I still lived in Georgia lol.

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3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Trump is coming unhinged and is targeting all prominent Republicans not living the 2020 lie.

Trump has been unhinged since...well, I don't know about his childhood, but he's certainly been unhinged his entire political career.  And he's been targeting all prominent Republicans not living the 2020 lie pretty much since he started telling it.  Trump's not gonna "take his shit and go elsewhere" when he has the advantage over the establishment Republicans.  And the establishment Republicans obviously aren't gonna go anywhere either. 

All this means is we're basically in primary season already.  And again, I don't see why you think this is any different than Trump's attacks on his opponents during the 2016 primary.

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11 minutes ago, DMC said:

Trump has been unhinged since...well, I don't know about his childhood, but he's certainly been unhinged his entire political career.  And he's been targeting all prominent Republicans not living the 2020 lie pretty much since he started telling it.  Trump's not gonna "take his shit and go elsewhere" when he has the advantage over the establishment Republicans.  And the establishment Republicans obviously aren't gonna go anywhere either. 

All this means is we're basically in primary season already.  And again, I don't see why you think this is any different than Trump's attacks on his opponents during the 2016 primary.

We’re seeing Establishment Republicans calling for the Losing Loser who Loses to step back… because he’s a loser.  It’s eating him up.

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Unfortunately I think today is the day that the dream of the Democratic House finally vanishes.  Not in called races, but in terms of realistic prospects. Losing co3 hurts.  There's basically 10 races left that are still uncertain.  The lead in those races is 5 R to 5 D, but reps only need to win 2 to get to 218.  

AZ 1 and 6, CA 13, 22, 41, 47, 49, NY22, OR6, WA3.

 

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1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

We’re seeing Establishment Republicans calling for the Losing Loser who Loses to step back… because he’s a loser.  It’s eating him up.

Not nearly enough yet.  Marc Theissen on FNC, some other pundits, and Virginia's Lieutenant Governor really isn't much.  And even if the establishment republicans do grow a spine and confront Trump publicly, that's not gonna make him bolt the party.  It's just gonna make him viciously attack them and try to prove it's his party.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Not nearly enough yet.  Marc Theissen on FNC, some other pundits, and Virginia's Lieutenant Governor really isn't much.  And even if the establishment republicans do grow a spine and confront Trump publicly, that's not gonna make him bolt the party.  It's just gonna make him viciously attack them and try to prove it's his party.

Will they let him keep control?  He’s buring shit down for them.  

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7 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Will they let him keep control?  He’s buring shit down for them.  

I don't know what you mean by "letting him."  Hell, I don't really know what you mean by "control."  Trump is going to announce he's running on Tuesday.  Even his allies/advisors want him to hold off till after the Georgia runoff, but I doubt he'll listen.  Regardless, he'll be announcing soon enough.  And he's running for the Republican nomination.  Obviously that means it's game on for Trump.  Will it be for DeSantis and establish Republicans publicly confronting him?  We'll see.

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@DMC @Tywin et al. @Fez

I had a thought:

 

Trump is unhinged in his attacks on establishment Republicans.  

This is a seriously long shot… what happens if Trumpanistas actually split from the Republican Party?  Would Republicans still retain control of the House (assuming they have a majority when all votes are counted)?  Could a splintered Republican Party hand control of the HOR back to the Democrats?

1% chance at best. Any split would only last for a moment. Trump can hold everyone hostage in the party, which is exactly what he did in 2016 and that's probably the ballgame. 

He's the Big Joker in that he might actually burn it all down for real if he doesn't get what he wants. 

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4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

If it is Game on for DeSantis and Establishment Republicans… what follows?

...A Republican primary for the presidential nomination.  I'd imagine DeSantis is not going to officially announce for quite some time, but I don't know if he's going to respond to Trump's attacks in the meantime.  Frankly I don't really know if he should - my inclination is it'd be better to bask in your victory for awhile.  Establishment Republicans should, but history suggests they have no spine.

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