US Politics: Fate of congress hangs in the Ballots

[DMC]

15 minutes ago, LongRider said:

And wondering about this too.  The kids are alright! 

Not an exact science, but comparing the exit polls to 2018 it appears the 18-29 vote maintained their historic turnout as well.  The exit poll reports the 18-29 demo constituted 12% of the electorate last night compared to 13% in 2018.

Also, that tweet weirdly has its numbers very slightly off.  Dems won 30-44 by four, not two.  And the GOP won the top two groups by 12 and 10, not 13 and 11.

[LongRider]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

And how incredibly condescending of anyone who said/thought that, like women are just gonna let something like this go. 
And of course, Gen Z FTW. 

Yanno, sometimes I'm happy to vote for Cali's propositions, like legalizing pot for example.   This abortion one, while there was no question I would vote yes, the way this came about, really pissed me off. Thanks SCOUS.    While it's good to see all the abortion rights measures passing, the work is not yet done.

I saw alot of pictures of college students voting in long lines, glad to the turnout was so high.

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

5 hours ago, Fez said:

Democrats have taken control of the Michigan legislature, giving them the trifectia for the first time in 40 years. Redistricting is done by an independent commission, so I'm not sure if any mid-cycle gerrymandering is possible. But very good news for a host of other reasons.

My native state, reborn and correctly poised, this result brings me joy like a Anita Baker song!

[Fez]

PA Dems claim they have in fact taken the state house, though I believe not all the races needed have been called yet:

Republicans still hold the state senate, so no trifecta. But the risk of "independent state legislature" is dead for now in PA.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Dana Nessel has won re-election as AG in Michigan, continuing the amazing tun for MI Democrats.

I will note that Carl Malinga lost the House seat to Jesse James (err... I mean John James), a very charismatic Trumper who lost his Senate campaign twice from 2018/2020. I recall an article talking about how Malinga had 0 name recognition, but was staying afloat because of Dobbs. Unfortunately he couldnt make it in a squeaker

Edited November 9, 2022 by IheartIheartTesla

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Will a civil war between Trump and DeSantis help 2024 prospects?  Will there be a civil war between Trump and DeSantis?

[Rorschach - 2]

If Trump is as much of a narsicist as he seems, that all depends on DeSantis.

He challenges, there will be a fight. Trump will win or take the party down. Because that's just who he is.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

From the NY Times on CO-3 it is Pueblo that has 29% left to report:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-colorado-us-house-district-3.html

Edited November 9, 2022 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[kissdbyfire]

12 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Yanno, sometimes I'm happy to vote for Cali's propositions, like legalizing pot for example.   This abortion one, while there was no question I would vote yes, the way this came about, really pissed me off. Thanks SCOUS.    While it's good to see all the abortion rights measures passing, the work is not yet done.

I saw alot of pictures of college students voting in long lines, glad to the turnout was so high.

 

I was surprised the ballot measure to legalise pot was rejected in… 3 states, I think? 
And definitely lots more to do irt to abortion rights… I believe those have been rolled back to the 1800s in some states? I also heard lots of talk about bans on  contraception, IVF  and other insane stuff being proposed/passed as well. Scary af. 
 

I can’t say I know much about US politics but there’s just so much crazy involved. For instance, how/why are republicans so effective in convincing their voters that basic rights are wrong and something to be avoided like the plague. Like universal health care, paid leave, etc. - it’s all communism/socialism! I’m willing to bet most of those R voters have no idea what communism or socialism are. So, is the strategy to keep their voters as ignorant as possible so they don’t realise they are basically shooting themselves in the head? 

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Will a civil war between Trump and DeSantis help 2024 prospects?  Will there be a civil war between Trump and DeSantis?

After last night there will most certainly be a competitive GOP primary - with or without DeSantis.  The only caveat there is the winner-take-all format of most contests after the early states still favors Trump just like it did in 2016.  Anyway, the notion competitive primaries hurt candidates is an old canard, at least at the presidential level.  It's manifestly orthogonal simply by recalling the last half a dozen presidential cycles (e.g. Trump did have a competitive primary and won then didn't and lost; Obama did have a competitive primary and performed better than when he didn't, Gore and Kerry had relatively easy primaries while both Clintons didn't....)

[JGP]

 

16 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I can’t say I know much about US politics but there’s just so much crazy involved. For instance, how/why are republicans so effective in convincing their voters that basic rights are wrong and something to be avoided like the plague. Like universal health care, paid leave, etc. - it’s all communism/socialism! I’m willing to bet most of those R voters have no idea what communism or socialism are. So, is the strategy to keep their voters as ignorant as possible so they don’t realise they are basically shooting themselves in the head? 

Pretty much, Kissed [though I'm not American either] 

For instance, a singular example: conservative operatives/whatever in Canada tend to view public education as something that's fostered liberal mindedness, the woke, etc, so undermining public ed and promoting better or preferential funding of private, charter, catholic et so on schooling is one way to tackle that threatening ideology. It's a long game, but seems a relatively common through line most rightwing governments/parties are fully invested in. Dumbing down the municipal/regional/federal populace is a net positive. Easier to control, manipulate tensions, etc. 

 

It's gross and, unfortunately, pretty much everywhere afeared conservatives exist. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by JGP

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

After last night there will most certainly be a competitive GOP primary - with or without DeSantis.  The only caveat there is the winner-take-all format of most contests after the early states still favors Trump just like it did in 2016.  Anyway, the notion competitive primaries hurt candidates is an old canard, at least at the presidential level.  It's manifestly orthogonal simply by recalling the last half a dozen presidential cycles (e.g. Trump did have a competitive primary and won then didn't and lost; Obama did have a competitive primary and performed better than when he didn't, Gore and Kerry had relatively easy primaries while both Clintons didn't....)

I hear what you're saying and can see the logic in general.  But I'm not sure that applies to a hypothetical Trump vs DeSantis.  I mean, I suppose if Trump defeats DeSantis that could help Trump shed his "loser" image.  But if DeSantis defeats Trump...I can't imagine Trump going quietly or doing anything to help unite the party around Ron.  In that scenario Trump could very realistically destroy DeSantis and the party's 2024 chances out of spite. 

[Corvinus85]

45 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

The creepy af Fox news woman fails in her Arizona hijack bid. We all are enriched today by such outcomes.

Also still hoping Boebert is getting bounced in Colorado, but as of last night they were saying "Too close to call".

Just holding the Senate is a decent V considering the historic trend for a Presidents incumbent midterm results.

Its a surprising "Red trickle" of underwhelming performance for the Trumpist pukes.

Did she accept the results? I'm asking because she was such a troll ahead of the election.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Alright isn’t DeSantis winning Miami-Dade a huge deal?  

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Alright isn’t DeSantis winning Miami-Dade a huge deal?  

Not really? DeSantis won whether he won Miami-Dade or not.  Florida Democrats are in complete disarray and need to be rebuilt from the ground up. 

[JGP]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I hear what you're saying and can see the logic in general.  But I'm not sure that applies to a hypothetical Trump vs DeSantis.  I mean, I suppose if Trump defeats DeSantis that could help Trump shed his "loser" image.  But if DeSantis defeats Trump...I can't imagine Trump going quietly or doing anything to help unite the party around Ron.  In that scenario Trump could very realistically destroy DeSantis and the party's 2024 chances out of spite. 

I don't know Desantis would appeal as broadly as Trump regardless?

He may be more articulate than Trump but that's not saying much. I don't see him riling up the MAGA segment nationally, unless the latter completely turn on Trump. If he's smart [he's not, but some of his advisors and influential donors clearly are] he'd sit 24 out and let Trump crackle out like low energy ball lightning so he can later swoop in as a savior or whatever, but I suspect that choice will be made for him. 

It's going to be interesting.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Not really? DeSantis won whether he won Miami-Dade or not.  Florida Democrats are in complete disarray and need to be rebuilt from the ground up. 

But MD has been a safe Democratic county for more than 20 years?  

[Fez]

Not the quite the AP, but the largest newspaper in Oregon is saying:

Feels a bit premature to me, with so many ballots still left to count and her only being up 1%. But maybe they have a very good understanding of what's left.

[Mindwalker]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

One also wonders, re the 15th, after Florida is creamed by Tropical Storm Nichole, which is to be a hurricane, They Say, when it hits Florida.

Any chances it could completely destroy Mar-a-Lardo? Just asking as a concerned world citizen.

ETA: AOC won  her race by 40+ points.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Mindwalker

[DMC]

19 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But if DeSantis defeats Trump...I can't imagine Trump going quietly or doing anything to help unite the party around Ron.  In that scenario Trump could very realistically destroy DeSantis and the party's 2024 chances out of spite. 

Oh.  Sure.  I wasn't even considering Trump's reaction if he loses the primary in answering the question.  But yeah, if he loses it's certainly possible if not likely he'll do everything possible to sabotage the nominee and impressively be responsible for losing FOUR straight cycles.  Would that effort be effective though?  Who knows, but I very much doubt it.  I mean, we see routinely that if Republicans that cross Trump survive to the general, they aren't hurt by his rancor electorally.