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US Politics: The Copper, Silver, and Peach hangover


Ormond

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Considering the state legislature gains - and if Hobbs holds on against Lake (as well as of course if Warnock beats Walker), there's a very compelling argument that this is the most successful midterm of the president's party in the modern era (meaning since FDR).  And of course on the other side of the coin, Donald Trump is almost certainly the Biggest Loser in American political history.  WINNING!!!!

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3 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

Dems can't hide behind Manchinema anymore...

 

Still need one of them.  And let's face it, they played off each other the entire damn time.  Anyway I still don't think they'll get the House despite Kornacki's admirably earnest hope right now.

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Whew. Excellent news!

The Georgia runoff does remain extremely important still though. Not only would it be an extra cushion against 2024, and an extra cushion against session absences, but there really are important differences between 50 and 51 seat majorities. At 51 seats, Democrats take majorities on the senate committees, rather than being even splits. So Schumer would no longer have to waste time with discharge petitions on the nominee Republicans are uniformly against. Also it means the committees would have subpoena power with just Democratic votes. 

So yeah, a great night, but Dec. 6 is still a key election.

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1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I have a not so great thought.  Manchin is up for re-election in WV in 2024.  He’s the only statewide member of the Democratic Party left in WV holding a statewide office.  What’s the over under on Manchin jumping ship to try to save his Senate seat in 2024?

Not a chance I think. Manchin is a lifelong party man. And, for all his positions that bother liberals, he strongly believes in raising taxes on the rich, which would make him a complete persona non grata in the Republican party.

Now, Sinema, her I could maybe see flipping, but it seems unlikely still; especially if Hobbes beats Lake and shows that Democrats pretty conclusively have the upper hand in statewide elections in AZ. 

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1 minute ago, Fez said:

Now, Sinema, her I could maybe see flipping

No.  It's somewhat if not very likely Gallego beats Sinema in the primary.  But can we stop this?  At least for a minute?  Joe Manchin as a Republican loses in the Republican primary in West Virginia.  Kyrsten Sinema as a Republican loses in the Republican primary in Arizona.  Full stop.  They both know this.  Maybe - maybe and eventually - things happen and they run as Independents, but can we please have a grace period beyond literally a few minutes?

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15 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Given the Senate win and the Sec. of State win what happened with the Governor’s race in Nevada?

Lombardo wasn't a crazy candidate and Nevadans understandably blamed Sisolak for the momentous hardship they've endured over the last four years.

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7 minutes ago, DMC said:

No.  It's somewhat if not very likely Gallego beats Sinema in the primary.  But can we stop this?  At least for a minute?  Joe Manchin as a Republican loses in the Republican primary in West Virginia.  Kyrsten Sinema as a Republican loses in the Republican primary in Arizona.  Full stop.  They both know this.  Maybe - maybe and eventually - things happen and they run as Independents, but can we please have a grace period beyond literally a few minutes?

Nope. Always gotta worry about the next thing. It's what Democrats do.

To be clear, I don't think Sinema flips. I'm just saying if anyone did, it would be her, not Manchin.

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