US Politics: The Copper, Silver, and Peach hangover

[DMC]

51 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Per Politico the Biden admin appears to be having no luck with doing anything in the lame duck. The typical expected people are balking at doing anything particularly useful via reconciliation and Republicans are shockingly not interested in helping out. 

Yeah came here to link the article.  Neither the White House nor Schumer seem to have any urgency about raising the debt ceiling during the lame duck, and they shouldn't:

Quote

“We’d love to do the debt limit. That doesn’t magically create the votes to get the debt limit done,” said one frustrated senior White House official.

The administration has determined that if it were to go the reconciliation route on the debt limit, it would face likely opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). And there could be other defectors. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he wants a bipartisan vote to raise the borrowing cap during the lame-duck session. But Republicans, many of whom are eager to use the limit as leverage to extract legislative concessions from Democrats in the next Congress, have shown no appetite for any such bipartisan approach.

To be clear this is limited to the debt ceiling.  While I remain skeptical, there's still optimism regarding the SSM bill.  We'll find out on that soon enough.

[Fez]

McConnell wins the senate Republican leadership vote, though Scott did slightly better than expected

The rest of leadership was elected by acclimation and there's no surprises: Thune, Barrasso, Capito, Ernst, and Daines.

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Fez said:

McConnell wins the senate Republican leadership vote, though Scott did slightly better than expected

Wonder who voted present.  Maybe Toomey?  Having Cornyn count the ballots for McConnell's election is like having Sam Tarly count the ballots for Jon's.

[Fez]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

Wonder who voted present.  Maybe Toomey?  Having Cornyn count the ballots for McConnell's election is like having Sam Tarly count the ballots for Jon's.

Not sure if Toomey voted. I thought this was the new conference, except Sasse who's out of town (and no Walker since he hasn't won).

Interestingly Graham has said he voted for Scott. Amazing how far he's gone from being a reliable establishment guy.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Fez said:

Not sure if Toomey voted. I thought this was the new conference, except Sasse who's out of town (and no Walker since he hasn't won).

I would've thought it was the new conference too but then I saw the vote count in that Tweet.  47 plus 1 present means 48 people voted.  Assuming McConnell and Scott didn't vote, that's 50 members total, which would have to include Toomey.  Didn't know Sasse was out of town - guess that could mean he's the 49th that didn't vote while McConnell and Scott did vote.

[Fez]

14 minutes ago, DMC said:

I would've thought it was the new conference too but then I saw the vote count in that Tweet.  47 plus 1 present means 48 people voted.  Assuming McConnell and Scott didn't vote, that's 50 members total, which would have to include Toomey.  Didn't know Sasse was out of town - guess that could mean he's the 49th that didn't vote while McConnell and Scott did vote.

I figured McConnell and Scott voted, but I don't know for sure.

And yeah, apparently his wife had a "significant but not life-threatening" seizure and he's staying in Nebraska with her.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

37 minutes ago, Fez said:

McConnell wins the senate Republican leadership vote, though Scott did slightly better than expected

The rest of leadership was elected by acclimation and there's no surprises: Thune, Barrasso, Capito, Ernst, and Daines.

Does this suggest more Republicans are walking away from the Trumpanista bandwagon?

[Week]

I ... just wow. In a run-off for a seat in the United States Senate. ffs

 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Does this suggest more Republicans are walking away from the Trumpanista bandwagon?

No.  It just suggests members are pissed about the election results and the blame game between McConnell and Scott spilled over to a leadership contest.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Lindsey Graham may need emergency CPR or oxygen or something if he doesnt come up for some air from a certain newly announced candidate. Geezus Lindsey have you been under that rump this whole time?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/lindsey-graham-donald-trump-2024_n_6374a7a1e4b08013a8b10f76

[Fez]

House Republicans are some of the dumbest people alive. Film at 11.

 

[Gaston de Foix]

4 minutes ago, Fez said:

House Republicans are some of the dumbest people alive. Film at 11.

 

Lol.  Stop the steal.  Ferguson, Banks and Emmer all signed the SC brief asking it to overturn the 2020 election.  Scum, one and all. 

[Gaston de Foix]

On the SSM bill.  10 R Senators needed to break the filibuster.  Declared supporters: Collins, Tillis, Portman, Romney.  Murkowski, Toomey, Burr also likely.   RonJon turned his coat ofc.  

Blunt, Cassidy, Capito, Ernst, Braun, Sullivan, Young probably the likeliest pickups.  Dems need 3 Senators, so a relatively steep path.  In principle, the libertarians like Paul & Braun ought to be in favor, but highly doubtful.  

[Gaston de Foix]

Just now, Gaston de Foix said:

On the SSM bill, 10 R Senators needed to break the filibuster.  Declared supporters: Collins, Tillis, Portman, Romney.  Murkowski, Toomey, Burr also likely.   RonJon turned his coat ofc.  

Blunt, Cassidy, Capito, Ernst, Braun, Sullivan, Young probably the likeliest pickups.  Dems need 6 more senators from the likelies/possibles, so a relatively steep path.  In principle, libertarians like Paul & Braun ought to be in favor, but I'm skeptical. 

 

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

RonJon turned his coat ofc. 

I know it is a fierce competition, but while he's not as damaging as McConnell, nor as two-faced as Graham, nor as slimy as Cruz, I think that Ron Johnson might be the Senator I loathe the most.  What a scumbag. 

[Maithanet]

Dr. Oz most certainly did not lose because he wasn't conservative enough.  And I think McConnell is smart enough to know that.  So I think this means that McConnell wants that to be the takeaway of what went wrong in 2022.  Which is basically the lesson that Republicans embraced from the 2012 wipeout as well, and it wasn't true then either.  Because the alternatives (poor leadership unable to control and increasingly irrational and ungovernable primary group who pick terrible candidates) might require new leadership and that's not what he's looking for.  Plus, of course, "more conservative" means different things to different people. 

[BigFatCoward]

1 hour ago, Week said:

I ... just wow. In a run-off for a seat in the United States Senate. ffs

 

What the actual fuck? 

[Fez]

53 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

On the SSM bill.  10 R Senators needed to break the filibuster.  Declared supporters: Collins, Tillis, Portman, Romney.  Murkowski, Toomey, Burr also likely.   RonJon turned his coat ofc.  

Blunt, Cassidy, Capito, Ernst, Braun, Sullivan, Young probably the likeliest pickups.  Dems need 3 Senators, so a relatively steep path.  In principle, the libertarians like Paul & Braun ought to be in favor, but highly doubtful.  

Looks like the final tally is: Romney, Portman, Collins, Tillis, Murkowski, Burr, Lummis, Sullivan, Capito, Blunt, Ernst, and Young. That makes 12.

I'm surprised at Toomey being a 'No' in the end. Also surprised by Lummis being a yes, I figured she was a bog-standard crazy MAGA type.

[Fez]

Two other big pieces of state legislature news:

1) On recount Democrats flipped a PA state house seat that they'd been behind by 12 votes on and instead won by 37 votes. So on called races Democrats have a 101-100 majority in the chamber with 2 races left that are on recount; Ds have a 37 vote lead in one and Rs a 54 vote lead in the other. If they split, Democrats will in fact take the chamber.

2) In New Hampshire, after recounts Republicans have a 200-199 majority in the state house. In the 400th seat, the recount found that there was actually a tie. So that's fun, a tie to determine if there's a tie. Apparently in NH there's usually a special election in the case of a tie, but the law only says that its up to the House to decide the winner; whatever that means.

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, Fez said:

Two other big pieces of state legislature news:

1) On recount Democrats flipped a PA state house seat that they'd been behind by 12 votes on and instead won by 37 votes. So on called races Democrats have a 101-100 majority in the chamber with 2 races left that are on recount; Ds have a 37 vote lead in one and Rs a 54 vote lead in the other. If they split, Democrats will in fact take the chamber.

2) In New Hampshire, after recounts Republicans have a 200-199 majority in the state house. In the 400th seat, the recount found that there was actually a tie. So that's fun, a tie to determine if there's a tie. Apparently in NH there's usually a special election in the case of a tie, but the law only says that its up to the House to decide the winner; whatever that means.

I hear (from Twitter) that one of the PA seats the Dems won the candidate actually died in October.  So it might end up being a 101-101 tie until that seat can be filled.  I would assume it's a fairly blue district if a dead man won it though.

In NH, some people are speculating that if it is decided in a vote, then the Republican will surely win because they control the Senate and have more votes at the moment in the house (200 vs 199).  So hopefully they go with something more fair and probably more arbitrary, like drawing pieces of paper from a bowl like VA did to determine who controlled the state legislature in 2017 (the Republican won).