How Long Does Bowen Marsh have Left to Live?

[Craving Peaches]

Regardless of your opinion on whether his assassination of Jon was justified or not, a lot of members of the Watch and Wildlings are not going to be happy with him. Jon has support from the Rangers, the experienced warriors of the Watch, and the Wildlings. Bowen, if he has much in the way of support at all, probably only has some builders and stewards on his side. And the radical act would likely alienate those who would have supported him. Also, he is in the odd position of trying to do something semi-discretely (and when it's dark?) while everyone is distracted by the Wun-Wun situation but the assassination is still performed in the open and I don't think it will take long for people to realise what's happened. I think he was probably forced to kill Jon sooner and more publicly than he would have liked because of the events in the Shield Hall. 

So, how long has he got left?

I'm tending towards the idea that he doesn't have long at all, I think he could die almost instantly if Wun-Wun decides to bash his head in. Alternatively he might live a bit longer to be executed by revived/recovered Jon or whoever the next Lord Commander is.

What do you think?

[Canon Claude]

Bowen will likely die a gruesome death at the hands of the wildlings once they find out about Jon. I give him three chapters at the most.

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, Canon Claude said:

Bowen will likely die a gruesome death at the hands of the wildlings once they find out about Jon. I give him three chapters at the most.

I don't know what he thought would happen to be honest. I understand he might have wanted to hurry things along but why not wait until Jon wasn't in the middle of the courtyard?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

A few chapters. At best for him be captured and imprisonned for a few days or weeks before being executed. 

[Aebram]

Quote

When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold … (ADWD 69)

Four knives imply four attackers, all at the same time.  That can't be a coincidence; Jon had his detractors, but he wasn't that unpopular.

Bowen is not my favorite character, but he is no fool.  Before committing such an extreme action, he would have quietly lined up some support from other men of the watch, including some of the more senior ones who could influence the others. 

Going forward from here, I'll speculate that Bowen's plan is to quickly round up some of the senior wildlings, and imprison or kill them.  That will cause doubt and uncertainty among the other wildlings, and prevent them from offering any organized resistance.  Then everyone will be called to The Shield Hall, where Bowen, Ser Alliser, and a few others will  justify what they did, and explain how things will work from now on.  Nice and neat, like the rows of numbers in his books of accounts.

But will it work?  There are a number of factors that could disrupt his nice neat plan.

[Bowen 747]

Longer than Jon. Jon already bit the dust in the last book. 

[Craving Peaches]

7 hours ago, Bowen 747 said:

Jon already bit the dust in the last book. 

We don't know that. He could just be injured.

[Corvo the Crow]

His pomegranates juice will be fertilizer for a blue flower that grows from the Wall and filling the air with sweetness. I say he has as long as the seed is planted.

[StarkTullies]

Unless there is chapter taking place immediately after Jon's murder (I do think Jon's human body is dead... for now) from Ghost (through Jon's mind) or Melisandre's perspective, I think Bowen Marsh will most likely already be dead before we have another chapter at Castle Black.

This has nothing to do with what I "want" to happen to Marsh.  I clearly don't like the guy, but I don't hate him.  He's a murderer but he's also an idiot.  He was rash and stupid and doing what he (incorrectly) believed was right, driven by his blind racism toward the Free Folk and the Lord Commander who emphasized with them.  Some people say Bowen killed Jon because Jon committed treason by planning a defense attack against the man who already threatened to attack the Watch, but I think Marsh was already plotting the assassination beforehand.  Jon's plan to go south rather than north altered his plans so he "had to" kill him right there.  Maybe I'm wrong about that, and it was a spontaneous decision.  Either way, Bowen murdered Jon right in front of everybody... with no deniability and no escape plan.  The tears in his eyes could mean Bowen thinks he was so honorable that it broke his heart to do "the right thing"... or it could mean that he was aware enough to realize he just committed suicide.

No matter what the Night's Watchmen thought about Jon's "treason", it doesn't mean they would stand for Marsh's treason.  Possibly they would capture him to allow him a "trial" before he ultimately gets executed... but that seems unlikely.  The Free Folk vastly outnumber the Watchmen, and while the Watchmen may be divided on their opinions on Jon vs Bowen, the Free Folk would be very united against Marsh.  Unless the Watchmen really want a war with the Free Folk (which they can't possibly win), I don't know if the Watchmen would be willing to die defending a man who should not be defended.

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

I hope he gets Wun Wun’d against the Wall.

[Moiraine Sedai]

Bowen is needed. His leadership is good for the Watch. I hope he lives. Bowen is the only one who can straighten Jon’s mess.  

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

If Bowen and his sycophants are allowed to continue they’ll doom the realms of men to the Others. He needs to be dealt with. Preferably by Wun Wun.

[LongRider]

21 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Regardless of your opinion on whether his assassination of Jon was justified or not, a lot of members of the Watch and Wildlings are not going to be happy with him. Jon has support from the Rangers, the experienced warriors of the Watch, and the Wildlings

A few quotes from the book;

Quote

Horse and Rory fell in beside Jon as he left the Shieldhall.....He broke into a run. Horse and Rory raced after him. "Is it wights?" asked Rory. ....Men poured from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, free folk, queen's men … "Form a line," Jon Snow commanded them. "Keep them back. Everyone, but especially the queen's men." .....When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold …   ADWD  Jon XIII

21 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I'm tending towards the idea that he doesn't have long at all, I think he could die almost instantly if Wun-Wun decides to bash his head in. Alternatively he might live a bit longer to be executed by revived/recovered Jon or whoever the next Lord Commander is.

Agree, and I'm not convinced that Jon is dead.

When Jon left the Sheildhall Rory and Horse were with him, and then ran with him towards the Giant.   The noise of the fight drew many of the men at Castle Black towards Jon, where Jon was trying to organize them to help stop Wun Wun's actions.   If there was a fourth man/knife, did Rory or Horse stop them?  Jon felt the cold as it was snowing at the time, and he fell face first into the snow. 

[Craving Peaches]

45 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Bowen is needed. His leadership is good for the Watch.

45 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

I hope he lives.

I don't.

45 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Bowen is the only one who can straighten Jon’s mess.  

He created the mess in the first place.

[Wisconsin]

On 11/11/2022 at 1:30 PM, Craving Peaches said:

Regardless of your opinion on whether his assassination of Jon was justified or not, a lot of members of the Watch and Wildlings are not going to be happy with him. Jon has support from the Rangers, the experienced warriors of the Watch, and the Wildlings. Bowen, if he has much in the way of support at all, probably only has some builders and stewards on his side. And the radical act would likely alienate those who would have supported him. Also, he is in the odd position of trying to do something semi-discretely (and when it's dark?) while everyone is distracted by the Wun-Wun situation but the assassination is still performed in the open and I don't think it will take long for people to realise what's happened. I think he was probably forced to kill Jon sooner and more publicly than he would have liked because of the events in the Shield Hall. 

So, how long has he got left?

I'm tending towards the idea that he doesn't have long at all, I think he could die almost instantly if Wun-Wun decides to bash his head in. Alternatively he might live a bit longer to be executed by revived/recovered Jon or whoever the next Lord Commander is.

What do you think?

If a commander can be chosen for office then it means they can be impeached and removed from said office. Jon Snow should have been arrested and then given a hearing. He broke the laws and his execution will happen.  Bowen Marsh would have done it by the book if being quick had not been important.  Justice and punishment were no longer possible because Jon was readying his troops to assault Roose and Ramsay Bolton.  Bowen knew he would face the consequences for what he was about to do.  He did it to save the Night Watch and Westeros from Jon Snow.  Bowen's is a case of facing punishment even though it was the only responsible thing for an officer to do.  The other officers of the Night Watch will respect Bowen for deposing Jon but they will still punish him for the assassination.  He will get a hearing and his execution will follow.  The other guys will hang.  *Lord Bowen will get decaped(sp?).

*He appears to come from a high house of the gray marshes. 

[Craving Peaches]

11 minutes ago, Wisconsin said:

If a commander can be chosen for office then it means they can be impeached and removed from said office.

Not necessarily.

11 minutes ago, Wisconsin said:

He did it to save the Night Watch and Westeros from Jon Snow. 

No, he did it because he was an idiotic bigot who could not see the bigger picture.

[Wisconsin]

Just now, Craving Peaches said:

Not necessarily.

No, he did it because he was an idiotic bigot who could not see the bigger picture.

You're not giving Bowen Marsh a chance.  Read those chapters again.  Jon was in the act of leading his troops to assault a subject of Westeros.  The NW and its sworn members are not allowed by law to do that.  Jon broke the law.  The lord steward was left with no choice.  You might reassess your opinion of him because he looks like a hero from where I'm standing. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

It will be better for him to be killed by the Free Folks or by a ressurected Jon Snow, because if Ramsay really comes to the Wall a beheading will be nothing compared to what Ramsay would inflict on Bowen Marsh and the rest of the watch he gets his hands on. 

[Craving Peaches]

7 minutes ago, Wisconsin said:

The lord steward was left with no choice.

Yes he was. He could have chosen not to kill Jon. No one forced him to.

7 minutes ago, Wisconsin said:

You might reassess your opinion of him because he looks like a hero from where I'm standing. 

So I should change my subjective view because of your differing subjective view, rather than because of any objective facts or evidence?

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

10 minutes ago, Wisconsin said:

You're not giving Bowen Marsh a chance.  Read those chapters again.  Jon was in the act of leading his troops to assault a subject of Westeros.  The NW and its sworn members are not allowed by law to do that.  Jon broke the law.  The lord steward was left with no choice.  You might reassess your opinion of him because he looks like a hero from where I'm standing. 

After said lord threatened to slaughter the Watch for not interfering in Westerosi matters. At best Marsh was a complete moron following tradition without a single iota of thought into the matter. At worst he was a bigoted idiot acting on impulse.