NBA - The upside down

[DMC]

48 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

This is flatly a weird comment,

Your compare flatly weird if not understanding it's just homerism.

[Arakasi]

Not really last year there were still concerns if he was just an offensive player whose deficiencies on the defensive end erode his value. Anyway on top of the list of 15-20 clearly better players right now there are players like Halliburton, Banchero, Mobley, etc that no one would ever trade for KAT. So maybe last year or the year before he was top fifteen. But he’s gotten worse and their are new better players than him.

[Arakasi]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

Your compare flatly weird if not understanding it's just homerism.

Between here and the baseball thread with the Twins recent trade I think that is a pattern I’m seeing here. 

[Slurktan]

On 1/28/2023 at 9:01 PM, Tywin et al. said:

By most measures he has been over the last few seasons. He's been disappointing defensively, which is a surprise given his younger years, but offensively he's been elite for his position and I don't think you'll find many to say he's not a top 15 level player, even if you don't think he's someone you want to build around. He clearly has his flaws, but damn near every team would trade for him if he was healthy.

Also, you don't get to stick out your chest as a Raptors fan. You do have a title, but you had to win it when the best player in the league at the time got hurt and another first ballot HoFer tore his ACL. Great accomplishment. I'm sure you rooted for Floyd Patterson over Sonny too praying for the same thing.

Offensively yes. Defense he's a turnstile with no effort. Could he be a top 15 player if he put in effort? I'd think so. But he doesn't. He made all nba because writers like gaudy offensive numbers and don't pay attention to defense.

As to the second paragraph... sure kid. How many times have the wolves made the playoffs despite having roughly 30 lottery picks in their existence?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

20 hours ago, DMC said:

Your compare flatly weird if not understanding it's just homerism.

I figured I'd give you a day. That was a deeply unfair loss, one I suffered as much as you because I picked the Niners before the season. It's almost like you could empathize with another team being undone by injuries. 

20 hours ago, Arakasi said:

Between here and the baseball thread with the Twins recent trade I think that is a pattern I’m seeing here. 

I just laugh at the Twins. How can you not?

1 hour ago, Slurktan said:

Offensively yes. Defense he's a turnstile with no effort. Could he be a top 15 player if he put in effort? I'd think so. But he doesn't. He made all nba because writers like gaudy offensive numbers and don't pay attention to defense.

And that's the rub. He is an elite offensive player and probably the second best shooting big ever. However, his defense has fallen off by a good margin. He was really promising coming out of college and showed it his first two years, but since then it has declined. Like with a lot of other players I think it would dramatically improve if he showed a bit more effort and stopped complaining on the other side of the ball. That said, he may very well be better than Dirk on both ends, but he's yet to prove it. My compliant is that he should not dropped so much because he got sick and then got hurt, both of which should not impact him over the next five years. He's not experiencing some career altering event, just a hiccup, and I wouldn't be quick to trade him for a lesser player because of it. 

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As to the second paragraph... sure kid. How many times have the wolves made the playoffs despite having roughly 30 lottery picks in their existence?

As of two years ago they had the worst winning percentage of any professional team in North American sports. Not just the US, but the entire continent. And I've laughed at them for that too. What else can you do?

[Arakasi]

The point being in both cases here and baseball you overvalue a local player because of traditional counting stats, while their real value league wide is much lower. Presumably since you do watch your teams you favor them. I see this all the time with baseball trades where everyone rates your own prospects higher than other teams and get all upset on trades.

Anyway maybe the point is less about homerism and more about you do seem to favor traditional stats. (Like batting average and rebounds) If you look at basketball reference and look at things like win shares/48 or other overall metrics on stats you’ll see anywhere from 20s to 40s which I think is a reasonable guess on how good a player he is.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

18 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

The point being in both cases here and baseball you overvalue a local player because of traditional counting stats, while their real value league wide is much lower. Presumably since you do watch your teams you favor them. I see this all the time with baseball trades where everyone rates your own prospects higher than other teams and get all upset on trades.

Anyway maybe the point is less about homerism and more about you do seem to favor traditional stats. (Like batting average and rebounds) If you look at basketball reference and look at things like win shares/48 or other overall metrics on stats you’ll see anywhere from 20s to 40s which I think is a reasonable guess on how good a player he is.

When have I overvalued anything with the Twins? And moreover I make fun of the local teams as much as I root for them.

KAT's value is really tricky to gauge, by some metrics he's excellent, by others he isn't. My point is I would not trade him straight up for a number of players that were listed, especially because if you're judging his value negatively because he got hurt with an injury that as of now is not serious. 

[Arakasi]

In the trade with Miami you downplayed Lopez as a number four starter while accusing the twins of going cheap because of their trade. Despite Arreaz winning the batting title he has no power and doesn’t play good defence which cuts his value quite a bit.

I do agree that you should never sell low on a player for trade but I think even last year you’d have been underwhelmed by any trade offer for KAT. His effort and defensive issues were well known at that point and I don’t think anyone seriously considers him a top dog on a title team. And to be a top 15 player I think that needs to be on the table but it’s not. 
 

Then again Gobert got quite a haul. Another player with obvious deficiencies that got way more than he should have. You just need to find a team like that to trade with.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

29 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

In the trade with Miami you downplayed Lopez as a number four starter while accusing the twins of going cheap because of their trade. Despite Arreaz winning the batting title he has no power and doesn’t play good defence which cuts his value quite a bit.

Because the scenario is the same, they traded an actual All-Star for an okay player and prospects. You always assume you lose that trade.

As to the rest of your comment, idk what else to say. Arguing that a guy who was just All-NBA shouldn't be traded away for nothing seems strange. If you want to say they overpaid for Gobert, sure, they did, but KAT's value should be even higher. 

[DMC]

To be clear I wasn't saying the Wolves should trade KAT.  They shouldn't.  And I understand his current injury is temporary and happens to most players throughout the season.  That doesn't change the fact that when he's on the court, I'd take the 20 players I mentioned over him - and I think most would if we're trying to be objective.

[Arakasi]

And there is another 10-20 that no one would trade him for because of upside and such. Because teams believe those players will be more valuable long term. So true talent maybe 20s, trade value 30s or lower.

[DMC]

22 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

And there is another 10-20 that no one would trade him for because of upside and such. Because teams believe those players will be more valuable long term. So true talent maybe 20s, trade value 30s or lower.

Yeah, probably even more than that.  But the exercise was, again, looking at players as they are now regardless of contract and age.  If we factor in the latter, there's a shitton more.  For instance, I wouldn't trade Banchero nor Wagner for KAT straight up, even though KAT is the significantly better player right now. 

As you mentioned, there are plenty of advanced states that place KAT in the 20s to 30s ish.  There's also this from The Ringer that is a more qualitative outlook and puts KAT at 31.  Either way, I think it's clear KAT isn't a top 15 player.  Him making an All-NBA third team last year as well as in 2018 is a silly way to evaluate things.

[Arakasi]

Yeah I don’t think anyone would trade Halliburton, Mobley, Jackson Jr. Sabonis, Maxey or Barnes for him either and I can think of another handful other than the two you just mentioned in the list. It’s just very rare for players with as much time in the league as Towns to actually go through the process of addressing the holes in their games. He is what he is and that would be a great number two on teams but having a perimeter 3 guy no matter how good he is at shooting threes that can’t guard anyone is an issue. You want 3 and D or someone who can impact the paint and he’s neither.

[BigFatCoward]

Kat being all nba 3rd team doesn't take into account how far away from the 2 best centres he is (what would someone have to throw in if they wanted to trade KAT for Jokic or Embiid) and also how weak the centre pool is. 

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

and also how weak the centre pool is. 

Yeah, this too.  I don't consider sportswriters voting as any type of authority in general, but even if they were, the center position is pretty damn depleted at this point.

[Relic]

My question for t-wolves fans would be who you would rather build a team around. Kat or Edwards? Id pick one and trade the other, and id pick Edwards.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

54 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah, probably even more than that.  But the exercise was, again, looking at players as they are now regardless of contract and age.  If we factor in the latter, there's a shitton more.  For instance, I wouldn't trade Banchero nor Wagner for KAT straight up, even though KAT is the significantly better player right now. 

And I wouldn't trade KAT for both of them plus picks if we're not factoring in salaries.

Again, dude made an All-NBA team at the hardest position to make an All-NBA team last year. The fuck are we talking about here? Stop with the recency bias. 

44 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

Yeah I don’t think anyone would trade Halliburton, Mobley, Jackson Jr. Sabonis, Maxey or Barnes for him either and I can think of another handful other than the two you just mentioned in the list. It’s just very rare for players with as much time in the league as Towns to actually go through the process of addressing the holes in their games. He is what he is and that would be a great number two on teams but having a perimeter 3 guy no matter how good he is at shooting threes that can’t guard anyone is an issue. You want 3 and D or someone who can impact the paint and he’s neither.

This is the problem. You keep mentioning players who have never had a single season better than KAT's third best season. Stop projecting. I'd never trade KAT straight up for the likes of Maxey or Barnes. This is getting insane.

32 minutes ago, Relic said:

My question for t-wolves fans would be who you would rather build a team around. Kat or Edwards? Id pick one and trade the other, and id pick Edwards.

Honestly neither, but Edwards has more upside. And if we're being honest I wouldn't trade Edwards for most of the people listed either. 

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Again, dude made an All-NBA team at the hardest position to make an All-NBA team last year. The fuck are we talking about here? Stop with the recency bias.

First, it's actually the easiest position to make an All-NBA team in this day and age.  There are so many better points, guards, wings, forwards than there are players that would be classified as "centers" or 5s.  This is an empirical fact and it's really weird you're arguing the exact opposite.

Second, evaluating players as things stand today is necessarily "recency bias."  If you wanted me to make a list of the top 15 players two years ago, that would consequently be entirely different than the top 15 players todays.  That's just evolution.  And more importantly, it's how front offices evaluate players.

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And I wouldn't trade KAT for both of them plus picks if we're not factoring in salaries.

Good for you!  Wish you were a general manager I could take advantage of.  Banchero and Wagner are about 6 years younger while also also having close to the same value already.  Most crucially, they both at least try on defense.  Your idiotic stubbornness would be an awesome thing to exploit in reality.

[Arakasi]

Well that’s your issue then. Towns is nice for counting stats but what it is is empty calories. Players on bad teams get stats someone has to. But translating that into winning games is something different. And so far it’s been shown pretty well for all his stats he doesn’t actually impact the wolves winning games.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

First, it's actually the easiest position to make an All-NBA team in this day and age.  There are so many better points, guards, wings, forwards than there are players that would be classified as "centers" or 5s.  This is an empirical fact and it's really weird you're arguing the exact opposite.

There's also only three slots for true centers, whereas guards get in as forwards and vice versa.

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Second, evaluating players as things stand today is necessarily "recency bias."  If you wanted me to make a list of the top 15 players two years ago, that would consequently be entirely different than the top 15 players todays.  That's just evolution.  And more importantly, it's how front offices evaluate players.

So is KD not a top 5 player anymore in your book because he got hurt, even though we know he'll be back soon?

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Good for you!  Wish you were a general manager I could take advantage of.  Banchero and Wagner are about 6 years younger while also also having close to the same value already.  Most crucially, they both at least try on defense.  Your idiotic stubbornness would be an awesome thing to exploit in reality.

No they're not, and you're hoping either player has the same career that KAT has already had, which is far from a guarantee. That's what's so weird here. You have no way to know if PB will ever make an All-NBA team, but you want him over the guy that literally just did it and not for the first time.

Like do you think KAT is 35 and past his prime?