NBA - The upside down

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

Well that’s your issue then. Towns is nice for counting stats but what it is is empty calories. Players on bad teams get stats someone has to. But translating that into winning games is something different. And so far it’s been shown pretty well for all his stats he doesn’t actually impact the wolves winning games.

Most dude's get empty stats if we're being honest.

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So is KD not a top 5 player anymore in your book because he got hurt, even though we know he'll be back soon?

Well, I'm not sure if KD is in the top 5 right now.  Definitely close, but that's an interesting debate.  Anyway, you are creating a straw man here.  I have said repeatedly that my opinion does not have to do with KAT's current injury.  Either you have trouble basically comprehending my responses, or you are deliberately being obtuse.

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

That's what's so weird here. You have no way to know if PB will ever make an All-NBA team, but you want him over the guy that literally just did it and not for the first time.

I know I will take Banchero and Wagners' 21 to 27 years over KAT's 27 to 33 years.  Now that might not always be the case - 27 to 33 is often prime real estate.  But with KAT, his effort, his injuries..Yep.  I'd most certainly take the former.  If you take the latter, again, good for you!  I would enjoy fleecing you in trades.

[Arakasi]

No one would ever trade Banchero for Towns. Just ridiculous statement. Now maybe I was being edgy by including Barnes and Maxey but no one is trading Jackson or Mobley or Halliburton for him. They don’t care that he’s third team nba as a position that doesn’t matter like it used to.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

36 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, I'm not sure if KD is in the top 5 right now.  Definitely close, but that's an interesting debate.  Anyway, you are creating a straw man here.  I have said repeatedly that my opinion does not have to do with KAT's current injury.  Either you have trouble basically comprehending my responses, or you are deliberately being obtuse.

KD is top 5 when healthy unless you overvalue the center position, which is funny given this convo. And it really is the same argument even if you personally aren't a big KAT fan. Out of sight, out of mind. We do this all the time with the NBA because there's such a glut of new shinny objects.

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I know I will take Banchero and Wagners' 21 to 27 years over KAT's 27 to 33 years.  Now that might not always be the case - 27 to 33 is often prime real estate.  But with KAT, his effort, his injuries..Yep.  I'd most certainly take the former.  If you take the latter, again, good for you!  I would enjoy fleecing you in trades.

Sure, if you want, but there's a low percentage either becomes as good as KAT was during that same window. And it's not like KAT has a serious injury history. He missed a good chunk of time mostly because he's probably had the worst luck with COVID of any star player in the league and the team also gave him a lot of time off because an absurd number of people in his family died from it. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

17 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

No one would ever trade Banchero for Towns. Just ridiculous statement. Now maybe I was being edgy by including Barnes and Maxey but no one is trading Jackson or Mobley or Halliburton for him. They don’t care that he’s third team nba as a position that doesn’t matter like it used to.

And no one is trading Towns for PB. You do not trade an All-NBA player for a guy you hope one day becomes one if money is not a motivating factor or unless something off the court happens. Of those you just listed Mobley is the only one I wouldn't trade for Towns, and mind you, these are their averages this season:

KAT: 21/8/5 eFG% 57 PER 19.4

Mobley: 15/9/3 eFG% 57 PER 16.8

 

 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

KD is top 5 when healthy unless you overvalue the center position, which is funny given this convo.

I have no idea what the center position has to do with whether or not Durant is a top five player.  This is again you pulling things out of your ass.  As for who should be in the top five discussion, Durant is one of them, sure.  But there's also Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Curry, Embiid, and Tatum.  How you rank those seven really is a crapshoot - but they are all clearly the elite and/or best of the best.  Look at what the other six are doing this season.  Which is why I said I wasn't sure if I'd put Durant in the top 5.

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sure, if you want, but there's a low percentage either becomes as good as KAT was during that same window.

Even if it was a low percentage probability Banchero will be as good as KAT in his first six years - which it's not, at all - that would still be mitigated by the fact you are trading for someone that is most likely at the back end of his normal distribution.  Again, I like KAT and I hope I'm wrong, but in terms of probability and statistics he is very likely to only get worse right now and moving forward.  Which, for the umpeenth time, is how you evaluate players.

[Arakasi]

Mobley is a top tier defender (perhaps best big defender in the league with Bam) that transforms how Cleveland can play defence. He also plays on a team where he’s not required to be the top scoring option. They have players like Mitchell and Garland for that. Once again you fall back to counting stats. Are you sure you’re not one of those baseball hall of fame writers we all gripe about?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

I have no idea what the center position has to do with whether or not Durant is a top five player.  This is again you pulling things out of your ass.  As for who should be in the top five discussion, Durant is one of them, sure.  But there's also Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Curry, Embiid, and Tatum.  How you rank those seven really is a crapshoot - but they are all clearly the elite and/or best of the best.  Look at what the other six are doing this season.  Which is why I said I wasn't sure if I'd put Durant in the top 5.

Just that there's a bunch of centers in the top tier.

Personally I'd go Giannis>Luka>Tatum/KD/Curry, but to each their own. Jokic is impossible to slot and while I think Embiid is better, there's no argument for him over the former.

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Even if it was a low percentage probability Banchero will be as good as KAT in his first six years - which it's not, at all - that would still be mitigated by the fact you are trading for someone that is most likely at the back end of his normal distribution.  Again, I like KAT and I hope I'm wrong, but in terms of probability and statistics he is very likely to only get worse right now and moving forward.  Which, for the umpeenth time, is how you evaluate players.

Funny, because I'm not that high on KAT and told you the Magic should draft PB over Chet, the much more obvious injury concern.

Look, I think PB is going to be good, but there are zero guarantees he ever makes an All-NBA team. That's why I wouldn't swap the two if money isn't the issue, and I wouldn't be too concerned about KAT's injuries, which again are not serious long term concerns. You're too fixated on that. Stop letting Niners QBs' injuries break your spirit. 

1 hour ago, Arakasi said:

Mobley is a top tier defender (perhaps best big defender in the league with Bam) that transforms how Cleveland can play defence. He also plays on a team where he’s not required to be the top scoring option. They have players like Mitchell and Garland for that. Once again you fall back to counting stats. Are you sure you’re not one of those baseball hall of fame writers we all gripe about?

But KAT gets dinged because they added more scoring and rebounding? 

Seriously, stop bring up guys who one for one do not compare statistically without also considering how that may impact KAT, a player I again do not love, just believe he's being wildly disrespected because he did not turn out to be the generational player many thought he could be. 

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Funny, because I'm not that high on KAT and told you the Magic should draft PB over Chet, the much more obvious injury concern.

I wasn't as worried about Holmgren's injury problems as you were - you were definitely right about that and I was definitely wrong.  But no, you were not advocating Banchero specifically.  Jabari was very much in the conversation, which we both basically agreed upon.  I'm happy to say I was very wrong about Banchero, but don't rewrite history.

16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Look, I think PB is going to be good, but there are zero guarantees he ever makes an All-NBA team. That's why I wouldn't swap the two if money isn't the issue, and I wouldn't be too concerned about KAT's injuries, which again are not serious long term concerns. You're too fixated on that. Stop letting Niners QBs' injuries break your spirit. 

It's really not about KAT as much as it about Banchero.  KAT is almost certainly maxed out - he's not going to get any better than he is.  Moreover, if he's a weakness on defense at 27 that almost always just exacerbates itself.  Especially for big guys.  But, generally, yeah, I think he should or could put up quite impressive offensive numbers for the next four or five years at least.

However, all that's not worth Banchero's potential -- at all.  Not even close.  Like, this is a no brainer.  Even if you like counting stats, Banchero is putting up the best rookie season since Blake Griffin.  And really, other than Griffin, no rookie compares to what Banchero is doing scoring-wise as a rookie since LeBron. 

Most importantly is his ability to get to the line.  That's an ability you can't teach and doesn't go away.  This is where I was way off and totally wrong.  I completely underrated him in this regard.  He can take even elite defenders off the dribble and get to the hole at 6'10".  It's really quite remarkable to watch -- and he can and most likely will easily improve upon this with experience. 

I'm literally typing this while watching him put up over a dozen points in the third quarter against the Sixers.  There are very few players I would trade Banchero for when considering the next five years, and really that's a non-controversial statement.

[KingintheNorth4]

The Bulls didn't blow a lead tonight, so I'm happy. 

[BigFatCoward]

I hope LBJ scores 64 in his next game, so that all the idiots spending 75 grand on tickets for the 'presumed' record breaking game lose out.  

Is it possible that Jokic averages a triple double as a centre and doesn't win MVP?  I know voter fatigue is a thing but come on (while accepting Giannis clearly has something to say about this at the minute, he is on a monster run over his last 5 games, and Luka is also something else). 

Either way it looks like USA USA USA barren run for MVP continues as Embiid is 2nd favourite (I suppose Tatum has an outside shot). 

[briantw]

On 1/30/2023 at 7:18 PM, Arakasi said:

Mobley is a top tier defender (perhaps best big defender in the league with Bam) that transforms how Cleveland can play defence. He also plays on a team where he’s not required to be the top scoring option. They have players like Mitchell and Garland for that. Once again you fall back to counting stats. Are you sure you’re not one of those baseball hall of fame writers we all gripe about?

Zero chance any team in the NBA would pick Towns over Mobley is we were doing a redo draft of the entire league.  Mobley would easily be a top ten, maybe top five pick, especially when you factor in salary and age.  

As you said, he’s arguably already the best big man defender in the league (and absolutely elite at switching to the wing and contesting shots) and he’s only going to get better offensively.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

33 minutes ago, briantw said:

Zero chance any team in the NBA would pick Towns over Mobley is we were doing a redo draft of the entire league.  Mobley would easily be a top ten, maybe top five pick, especially when you factor in salary and age.  

Slow down. After a season and a half he's averaging 15/9 with a PER below 17. Like with Banchero there's real reason for optimism that he'll grow into something more, but again this a bird in the hand worth two in the bush situation. It's not even clear if he's the best big on the Cavs.

ETA: And even if we're bring salaries into this, which again the conversation started with that not being a factor, there's quickly 10 players I'd take before him, neither of which are my team's two best players so don't bring homerism into this. Two of them played last night. I love Ja and Mitchell has really earned my respected. And good for him for winning the scuffle with that Brooks, who needs to be recognized as a dirty player. 

[Arakasi]

Once again you’re just using counting stats. Obviously some of this is on potential and such but considering Mobley is already a top defender in the game and a top passer as a big it’s easy to see why he has such high value. I’d easily rate him over Mitchell. Ja is pretty comparable though.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

57 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

Once again you’re just using counting stats. Obviously some of this is on potential and such but considering Mobley is already a top defender in the game and a top passer as a big it’s easy to see why he has such high value. I’d easily rate him over Mitchell. Ja is pretty comparable though.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense

 

[briantw]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense

 

Any stat that lists Darius Garland as the third best defender in the league is clearly not accurate.  The dude puts in effort but he’s not a great defender. 

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, briantw said:

Any stat that lists Darius Garland as the third best defender in the league is clearly not accurate.  The dude puts in effort but he’s not a great defender. 

At first glance I suspect there's some multicollinearity between offensive and defensive win shares that's mucking things up - particularly irt any box +/- and/or efficiency aspects to the latter metric.  You got guys near the top of the list there that are clearly some of the most impactful players in the league on a rate basis, but generally not thought of as top-of-the-line defenders by most anyone's eye-test - in particular Zion ranking 11th.

Doesn't mean the metric is garbage though, just mean it has an inherent flaw - as most do.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

23 minutes ago, briantw said:

Any stat that lists Darius Garland as the third best defender in the league is clearly not accurate.  The dude puts in effort but he’s not a great defender. 

I just think it's interesting Cleveland has five guys in the top 12 and that Mitchell also rates higher by def rating.

Anyways, no one is saying Mobley isn't an excellent defender. But he still has not shown he's as complete as you're hoping he will be five years from now, with the key word being hope. Like right now he's not as good as Gobert was when he was at his best and everyone shits on him now. 

[Arakasi]

The thing is Gobert locks down the paint fine but he’s never had the mobility for switching on to wings that Mobley has. He certainly doesn’t have it anymore if he did have it earlier in his career.

[briantw]

4 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

The thing is Gobert locks down the paint fine but he’s never had the mobility for switching on to wings that Mobley has. He certainly doesn’t have it anymore if he did have it earlier in his career.

Yeah, the main issue with Gobert is that he’d get played off the floor when it counted.  Mobley can defend wings as easily as bigs and his length throws off a lot of smaller guys.