Ukraine Forever

[Werthead]

17 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

Taiwan today has never been under the control of the current regime in China just like Crimea and Donetsk today have never been under control of the current regime in Ukraine. They cannot retake territory that was never under their control under a framework of Ukrainian statehood none of these people agreed to and was brought upon them not be voting, but by revolution.

Crimea and Donbas were under the authority of Kyiv between 1991 and 2014.

As has been noted here, more than once, Putin's mistake was intervening in 2014. If he had not, the revolution would likely have fallen apart as quickly as the 2004 one did and Ukraine would have returned to drifting between vaguely pro-EU and vaguely pro-Russian governments without any realistic chance of ever joining NATO or the EU. Instead, Putin removed the overwhelming majority of pro-Russian voters from Ukraine's voting system, ensuring that under that paradigm, a pro-Russian government would likely never come to power again.

Not for the first time, he not so much shot himself in the foot as blew it off with a rocket launcher.

[Jace, Extat]

2 minutes ago, Werthead said:

 

Not for the first time, he not so much shot himself in the foot as blew it off with a rocket launcher.

P(utin) and E(lon) sit-ting in a tree

F

U

C

K

I

N

... 

[Varysblackfyre321]

36 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

Using the Ukrainian situation to bring about more death is not right. 

Plenty of Ukrainians will die and suffer under the dominion of Russian autocracy.

Peace is not worth all costs.

And even if Ukraine let Russia subjugate people in Eastern Ukraine in the name of getting that peace at  best it will be a temporary as Russia reorients itself to better prepare its next conquest a few years down the line.

Oh one more thing—provide actual proof a strong majority of Ukrainian of any of the places Russia has annexed actually want to be apart of Russia.

[Toth]

4 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Oh one more thing—provide actual proof a strong majority of Ukrainian of any of the places Russia has annexed actually want to be apart of Russia.

That's indeed one of the things going through my head as well. What gives him the right to declare that "the people" of the occupied territories want to be part of Russia? Just because they are Russian-speaking? The separatist movement itself even was quite divided, with the majority just acting out of fear of any Ukrainian nationalist crackdown upon Russian media, while only a hardened core envisioned special autonomy rights or even more daring independence. But getting annexed by Russia? That's a different animal to any of this.

And after almost a year of martial law and being callously used as cannon fodder, I highly doubt Russia has gotten more popular since their intervention...

[Maithanet]

26 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Oh one more thing—provide actual proof a strong majority of Ukrainian of any of the places Russia has annexed actually want to be apart of Russia.

Indeed.  The idea that the 2014 Maidan Protests invalidate the 1991 Referendums is basically Russian propaganda - it's not a position held by really anyone else.  For example, Kazakh President and Russian ally President Tokayev clarified this year that Kazakhstan does not recognize Russian control of Crimea nor the existence of the LPR or DPR statelets. 

There is little question that without interference from Russian troops that Ukraine would have control of all three oblasts today. And as Wert mentioned, all of Ukraine might have swung back to a far more pro-Russian stance through subsequent elections.  But Putin chose to use force instead.

[Werthead]

6 minutes ago, Toth said:

That's indeed one of the things going through my head as well. What gives him the right to declare that "the people" of the occupied territories want to be part of Russia? Just because they are Russian-speaking? The separatist movement itself even was quite divided, with the majority just acting out of fear of any Ukrainian nationalist crackdown upon Russian media, while only a hardened core envisioned special autonomy rights or even more daring independence. But getting annexed by Russia? That's a different animal to any of this.

And after almost a year of martial law and being callously used as cannon fodder, I highly doubt Russia has gotten more popular since their intervention...

The straw polls taken by media on the streets of Donetsk and Luhansk over the years indicates that originally they were more keen on devolution and a federated arrangement with Ukraine that respected their ability to strike deals with Russia, and then some form of autonomy from both Russia and Ukraine. Like Transnistria, South Ossetia and so on, the locals seem well aware that their localised ambitions could easily get swept up and subsumed by Russia.

If anything, the devastating losses suffered from the DPR and LPR, which have now reached the point where they are forcibly conscripting men of almost any age and women of fighting age off the streets, have likely meant they don't want any part of being Russian, even if their enthusiasm for remaining part of Ukraine has waned as well.

[Varysblackfyre321]

23 minutes ago, Toth said:

What gives him the right to declare that "the people" of the occupied territories want to be part of Russia?

 

Blood and soil.

Russian nationalists like Putin don’t even recognize the autonomy of their allies like Kazegstan and Belarus  

[Werthead]

13 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Blood and soil.

Russian nationalists like Putin don’t even recognize the autonomy of their allies like Kazegstan and Belarus  

Putin had to attend a meeting of the CIS today which the air was a bit frosty. Russian officials, including his own ambassador to Astana, have been talking about Kazakhstan being the #2 target for a "special military operation" and talking about "Nazis" terrorising the Russian-speaking minority near the border. Meanwhile, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have fought a brief border conflict this year, and most of the other CIS members have been cosying up to China pretty hard. Putin had to admit there had been "problems" in CIS relations, which is putting it mildly.

[Maithanet]

What do you think is the point of Russian belligerence towards Kazakhstan in particular?  Are they trying to warn against the Kazakhs getting too cozy with China?  It feels so self defeating when the Russian military currently has more than it can handle in Ukraine.  

It is just simple denial that Russia is unwilling to accept that the situation has changed and this Russia continues with thier typical bullying approach to smaller neighbors?

[Werthead]

17 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

What do you think is the point of Russian belligerence towards Kazakhstan in particular?  Are they trying to warn against the Kazakhs getting too cozy with China?  It feels so self defeating when the Russian military currently has more than it can handle in Ukraine.  

It is just simple denial that Russia is unwilling to accept that the situation has changed and this Russia continues with thier typical bullying approach to smaller neighbors?

It is quite baffling. Kazakhstan is unfeasibly huge, despite a relatively low population, and simply conquering it with the Russian army at full strength would be a daunting prospect. At the moment it is laughably impossible, even if Russia might be thinking of other tactical advantages (i.e. it's much harder to funnel weapons and supplies from the west into the country). It's also baffling, since Kazakhstan is very much still a Russian ally. It's recent change in direction from being 95% subservient to Russia to maybe 85% might be galling to Moscow, but it's still very much in Russia's orbit. Whether it's Russia just throwing its weight around is unclear.

It might also be bait and switch, Russia makes a lot of noise about Kazakhstan and then invades Georgia.

[butterweedstrover]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Indeed.  The idea that the 2014 Maidan Protests invalidate the 1991 Referendums is basically Russian propaganda - it's not a position held by really anyone else.  For example, Kazakh President and Russian ally President Tokayev clarified this year that Kazakhstan does not recognize Russian control of Crimea nor the existence of the LPR or DPR statelets. 

There is little question that without interference from Russian troops that Ukraine would have control of all three oblasts today. And as Wert mentioned, all of Ukraine might have swung back to a far more pro-Russian stance through subsequent elections.  But Putin chose to use force instead.

The Russian goal was not to annex Donbas, but to reintegrate it using the Minsk agreement and influence the internal politics of Kiev. 

But alas people here seem determined to consider anyone who doesn’t cheer the crime rate in Russia or doesn’t see the benefit of a military solution in Donetsk to be supportive of Putin.  
 

I’ll just leave it at this. People who compare the UAF ambition of occupying Crimea and Donetsk to the liberation of Nazi territory might actually just be using the rhetoric of “liberation” as a tool to foment more violence. Because rather than see this as a nuanced geopolitical situation they imagine it’s a blood soaked battle for democracy where bored westerners can live vicariously through their Ukrainian counterparts and demand total victory no matter the cost. Like it’s a Rambo film. 
 

[SeanF]

3 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

The Russian goal was not to annex Donbas, but to reintegrate it using the Minsk agreement and influence the internal politics of Kiev. 

But alas people here seem determined to consider anyone who doesn’t cheer the crime rate in Russia or doesn’t see the benefit of a military solution in Donetsk to be supportive of Putin.  
 

I’ll just leave it at this. People who compare the UAF ambition of occupying Crimea and Donetsk to the liberation of Nazi territory might actually just be using the rhetoric of “liberation” as a tool to foment more violence. Because rather than see this as a nuanced geopolitical situation they imagine it’s a blood soaked battle for democracy where bored westerners can live vicariously through their Ukrainian counterparts and demand total victory no matter the cost. Like it’s a Rambo film. 
 

Defending one’s own country is no sin.

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

But alas people here seem determined to consider anyone who doesn’t cheer the crime rate in Russia or doesn’t see the benefit of a military solution in Donetsk to be supportive of Putin.

You're making this up.  No one here is doing that.  And maybe people would be more receptive to your arguments if you didn't impugn their motives without any evidence nor any apparent interest in even responding to what they are actually saying instead of just what's in your mind.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

6 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

The Russian goal was not to annex Donbas, but to reintegrate it using the Minsk agreement and influence the internal politics of Kiev. 

But alas people here seem determined to consider anyone who doesn’t cheer the crime rate in Russia or doesn’t see the benefit of a military solution in Donetsk to be supportive of Putin.  
 

I’ll just leave it at this. People who compare the UAF ambition of occupying Crimea and Donetsk to the liberation of Nazi territory might actually just be using the rhetoric of “liberation” as a tool to foment more violence. Because rather than see this as a nuanced geopolitical situation they imagine it’s a blood soaked battle for democracy where bored westerners can live vicariously through their Ukrainian counterparts and demand total victory no matter the cost. Like it’s a Rambo film. 
 

For the second time do you claim that a Nation-States retaking territory overrun by an invading Nation-State is the moral equivalent of the invading Nation-State.

[butterweedstrover]

6 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Defending one’s own country is no sin.

No one said it is.

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

For the second time do you claim that a Nation-States retaking territory overrun by an invading Nation-State is the moral equivalent of the invading Nation-State. 
 

 

No, the false moral equivalency is comparing the Ukrainian seizure of Donetsk and Sevastopol to “liberation” of territory from Nazi territory.  

A comparison you keep making for some reason. International recognition has nothing to do with it. If we go by international recognition China would be liberating Taiwan and Serbia would be liberating Kosovo if they invaded tomorrow. 
 

Niether Crimea nor Donetsk/Luhansk cities have ever been controlled by this government newly assembled after EU and NATO diplomats helped create the new framework after the revolution.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 minute ago, butterweedstrover said:

No one said it is.

 

No, the false moral equivalency is comparing the Ukrainian seizure of Donetsk and Sevastopol to “liberation” of territory from Nazi territory.  

A comparison you keep making for some reason. International recognition has nothing to do with it. If we go by international recognition China would be liberating Taiwan and Serbia would be liberating Kosovo if they invaded tomorrow. 
 

Niether Crimea nor Donetsk/Luhansk cities have ever been controlled by this government newly assembled after EU and NATO diplomats helped create the new framework after the revolution.

For the for the third time do you claim that a Nation-States retaking territory overrun by an invading Nation-State is the moral equivalent of the invading Nation-State.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@butterweedstrover,

Let me put it another way… was it immoral for Ukraine to seek to liberate Kherson, Lyman, Izyum, and Kupiansk from Russian occupation?

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

The association of violence in Russia as a sign of peace in Ukraine is what allows people to advocate bad things under a moral guise which is wrong. Using the Ukrainian situation to bring about more death is not right.

Keep on workin' it, but it's goin' nowhere as it is incoherent. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Well this thread got weird.

And let's be very clear, no one, to the best of my knowledge, has wished ill to the Russian people. But Vlad and his thugs can absolutely go fuck themselves and deserve the deaths befitting of war criminals, because that's unequivocally what they are.

[Wilbur]

A good recap of the cyclical nature of the Russian invasion over the past eleven months by Brian Frydenborg.  He has been making good behaviorist predictions throughout the period of the invasion, and he has the receipts to prove how the diminishing, phased nature of the Russian aggression has proceeded.

https://realcontextnews.com/russia-ukraine-war-settles-into-predictable-alternating-phases-but-russias-losing-remains-constant/