Ukraine Forever

[Loge]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I guess it's better for Ukraine if Russia aims missiles at patriot anti-missile batteries than aiming them at civilians and civilian infrastructure. So if nothing else, please deploy patriot systems to the Ukraine so that it gives Russia more purely military targets to have to shoot at. There may be the added benefit of patriot systems making Russian missile strikes ineffective while they remain operational.

Patriot are extremely expensive. According to Wikipedia, a battery costs one billion dollars. That's a billion, not a million. And one rocket costs 3 million dollars. One thing about this war is that both sides shoot a lot and don't hit very often. That's the old Soviet style of warfare. Let the artillery fire at a certain area till there's nothing left standing. That doesn't really work with modern precision artillery and rockets. They can't be procured large quantities. You have to think before you use them.

[Which Tyler]

7 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I guess it's better for Ukraine if Russia aims missiles at patriot anti-missile batteries than aiming them at civilians and civilian infrastructure. So if nothing else, please deploy patriot systems to the Ukraine so that it gives Russia more purely military targets to have to shoot at. There may be the added benefit of patriot systems making Russian missile strikes ineffective while they remain operational.

Further to this - presumably there's a way to fake that radar output of patriot without putting all the hardware there?

So sent Ukraine a few patriot batteries, and a shit-tonne of fakes to draw fire into empty fields

[The Anti-Targ]

37 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Further to this - presumably there's a way to fake that radar output of patriot without putting all the hardware there?

So sent Ukraine a few patriot batteries, and a shit-tonne of fakes to draw fire into empty fields

Like the cunning English parking a bunch of wooden spitfires in a bunch of airfields during WWII

[Which Tyler]

5 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Like the cunning English parking a bunch of wooden spitfires in a bunch of airfields during WWII

Plenty of such examples throughout history, from straw men with a helmet and spear, through inflatable tanks and wooden HIMARS in the current conflict (and Russia's wacky-waving-inflatable-arm-flailing-tube-men disguised as S300 batteries).

 

IIRC, back in WWII, the Germans did much the same with an entirely fabricated airfield - they just went about it with German precision, so the whole thing took several months with carpenters etc on site. Surprisingly, they were noticed, so the Brits (or other ally) dropped a wooden bomb on them.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Which Tyler

[A wilding]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Like the cunning English parking a bunch of wooden spitfires in a bunch of airfields during WWII

Not to mention entire fake burning towns to confuse Geman night bombing. Which even, at one point, had their own anti aircraft defences, until it was discovered that this discouraged the Germans from attacking them.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

We haven’t sent these to Ukraine yet? Why not?

 

[Fez]

13 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

We haven’t sent these to Ukraine yet? Why not?

 

Probably the same reason a variety of other top-tier US weapon systems haven't: They're very expensive, very rare, and Russia doesn't have any so there's worry about them capturing one.

[Loge]

31 minutes ago, Fez said:

Probably the same reason a variety of other top-tier US weapon systems haven't: They're very expensive, very rare, and Russia doesn't have any so there's worry about them capturing one.

I doubt that there's much danger of the things getting captured. Their range isn't very long. You have to place them close to potential targets. If you use them to protect critical infrastructure from drone strikes, they'll be located far behind the front line. I suspect that there just aren't that many units around. Germany sent a bunch of Gepard SPAAG. They are somewhat dated but apparently very effective. Of course there are way too few of them, and procurement of ammunition is a bit of a problem (because  the manufacturer is Swiss.)  

[Jace, Extat]

15 hours ago, Fez said:

Probably the same reason a variety of other top-tier US weapon systems haven't: They're very expensive, very rare, and Russia doesn't have any so there's worry about them capturing one.

"Much must be risked in war"

-Peter Jackson's Lord Denathor, on assaulting Osgiliath

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

8 hours ago, Fire and Jace said:

"Much must be risked in war"

-Peter Jackson's Lord Denathor, on assaulting Osgiliath

Do not get me started on the horror that is “film Denethor”…

[Werthead]

3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Do not get me started on the horror that is “film Denethor”…

Not in every thread, Scot. Let this one remain Film Denethor-Criticism Free!

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Not in every thread, Scot. Let this one remain Film Denethor-Criticism Free!

Blame Jace… (Jace is the new Pod)!

[Werthead]

Apparently there was an attempted drone attack on Kyiv and Ukrainian AA fire intercepted 100% of them, which is quite remarkable.

Russia now seems to be using artillery to brute-force destroy Kherson's power grid. They also launched a new artillery attack in the Kharkiv region from across the border, which they haven't done for a while, also apparently targeting power infrastructure.

Ukraine also launched a concerted artillery and HIMARS attack on Russian positions in and around Donetsk city, causing significant damage.

Russia seems to be running dry on missiles, probably still waiting for that restock from Iran, and we seem to be seeing a lot of mid-level skirmishing, nothing too major. Russia seems to still be targeting energy infrastructure, but not with sufficient firepower to really put the hurt on. But the disruptions they are causing are still significant.

[Wilbur]

Today's rumors say that the US will begin delivering JDAM munition kits to Ukraine for their air force to arm missiles and bombs.

Russian missile capabilities continue to erode, while Ukraine gets regular deliveries of proven goodies from Uncle Sam.

[Wilbur]

Here is an interesting read on the development and use of the Neptune missiles used to sink the Moscow.

Two "Neptune" missiles, sabotage and cruiser "Moscow". The first reconstruction of the drowning Ukrainian truth (www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog)

[Wilbur]

Russia is prototyping a new military vehicle, the Blyatmobile, aka the Chiropractor's Dream.

 

[Werthead]

Another big Russian attack today but Ukraine's interception systems did extremely well, with a high interception rate.

Ukrainian intelligence said it believes that Russia has divided its new recruits into two cohorts, one that was fed into battle immediately with little to no combat effectiveness and a second of around 150,000 troops that has been divided between training camps in Russia and Belarus. They believe they will be combat-ready between the end of January and the middle of March. They believe Russian command is again divided between a second broad-scale attack on multiple fronts and a concerted push, possibly from Belarus towards Kyiv, although they are sceptical of the likelihood of success in any direction other than trying to consolidate existing gains.

[mormont]

This is extremely badly timed and badly judged.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64006121
 

Quote

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has asked for an assessment of the progress of the war in Ukraine, BBC Newsnight has learnt.

Senior figures fear the PM may be taking an overly cautious approach as the war enters a key phase.

One Whitehall source likened the exercise to a "Goldman Sachs dashboard" examination of the war and how UK military supplies are used.

Downing Street insists that Mr Sunak is strongly supportive of Ukraine.

But the request has raised alarm bells in some corners of Whitehall as military chiefs say weapons supplies to Ukraine may prove decisive in the winter months ahead.

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by mormont

[Werthead]

Interesting comments here on military war production.

The good news is that Russia is suffering possibly even worse from an inability to produce new weapons and ammo than Ukraine, because Russia curiously chose to source a lot of components from countries that would cut it off in the event of a conflict (as they have). Without that, things could be a fair bit bleaker for Ukraine. The outcome of the war may therefore rest on Ukraine toughing out anticipated Russian offensives in early 2023 until western war production starts really kicking into gear later in the year.

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Werthead

[Zorral]

Long read on many of the mistakes that doomed Russia’s early war effort.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The vampire who is never staked, again rises from the crematorium of what he made of a half century of history with his bs convictions.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/12/henry-kissinger-ukraine-peace-plan-vladimir-putin.html

Quote

 

Henry Kissinger now joins the list of prominent figures whose efforts at drafting a peace plan for Ukraine reveal only their delusion about the nature of the conflict. In his plan, the glow of fantasy is fueled by nostalgia for Golden Age nostrums that have no cure-all value for the war that’s actually happening.

In an article for this weekend’s Spectator, the former statesman-historian proposes a cease-fire and a return to the pre-invasion borders of this past February. In other words, he is suggesting that Russia withdraw all its troops from the areas of Ukraine that it has conquered this year—but not from Crimea or the thin slice of eastern Ukraine that it annexed or occupied back in 2014. The disposition of those territories, he argues, should be negotiated or settled through an internationally supervised referendum.

Henry Kissinger now joins the list of prominent figures whose efforts at drafting a peace plan for Ukraine reveal only their delusion about the nature of the conflict. In his plan, the glow of fantasy is fueled by nostalgia for Golden Age nostrums that have no cure-all value for the war that’s actually happening.

In an article for this weekend’s Spectator, the former statesman-historian proposes a cease-fire and a return to the pre-invasion borders of this past February. In other words, he is suggesting that Russia withdraw all its troops from the areas of Ukraine that it has conquered this year—but not from Crimea or the thin slice of eastern Ukraine that it annexed or occupied back in 2014. The disposition of those territories, he argues, should be negotiated or settled through an internationally supervised referendum.

This idea is neither new nor particularly ingenious. Kissinger notes that he proposed the idea in May; others put forth similar ideas before then. There is—and always has been—just one problem: Russian President Vladimir Putin has absolutely no interest in going along with it. He has no interest in withdrawing his troops, an act that he would see, quite properly, as a defeat. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, also quite properly, has no interest in a cease-fire—which the Russian army would use as an opportunity to regroup and mobilize—unless Putin first withdraws all his troops.

In other words, the idea is a nonstarter, the article a complete waste of time—except in one sense: It exposes the limits of a way of thinking about international politics, at least as it applies to the Russia-Ukraine war, and it exposes the limits of Kissinger’s relevance to the 21st century. ....

 

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Zorral