Ukraine Forever

[Wilbur]

For the Ukrainians, and indeed the rest of the world, the only serious conclusion to the war has to be a defeat of Putin so that he cannot retrench and reload for his next effort.

[Werthead]

4 hours ago, Wilbur said:

For the Ukrainians, and indeed the rest of the world, the only serious conclusion to the war has to be a defeat of Putin so that he cannot retrench and reload for his next effort.

It is clear, from the rhetoric steadily rising against Kazakhstan and other, less focused statements floating around regarding Moldova and Georgia, not to mention Putin's own speech about NATO in the days leading up to the invasion, that Putin envisioned the conquest or at least neutralisation of Ukraine as the first step in a wider series of conflicts designed to re-encompass many of the former Soviet states in a new, greater Russian empire.

The degree to which actual NATO states, like the Baltics or even Poland, were in danger is debatable: some of Putin's statements suggest he begrudgingly accepted that retaking any state now in NATO was impossible and any idea to the contrary was simple sabre-rattling designed to make him sound powerful. However, the alarm in NATO states, the rapid re-armament of Poland, the rapid changing of the stance of Germany and France from the early weeks of the war to full-throttled support of Ukraine, and Biden making repeated statements that NATO will defend every inch of its territory (and apparently spelling out to Russian diplomats and military figures behind the scenes what that means) suggests that there was a very real belief that Russia thought they might be able to do a fast snatch-and-grab of at least the Baltic States.

That now seems to have gone out the window. If this war ended tomorrow, I can't see Russia being able to even think about launching any kind of major military operation for another 10-20 years, and that would require a fairly massive effort under incredibly poor economic conditions in opposition to European and American nations (and possibly Japan and Australia as well) which are now committed to fairly massive rearmament programmes, many of them individually dwarfing anything the Russians can do.

What's worrying is that everyone, including even some hardline Russian military bloggers who have begrudgingly noted their shitty performance and that will take years to sort out, seems to agree with this, but Russia is continuing to up the rhetoric against Kazakhstan in particular. If the Russian leadership has parted ways with actual reality and Putin is moving imaginary forces around on a map a la Hitler's last days in the bunker, that will be concerning.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Werthead

[Maithanet]

IMO it's not that Putin is completely delusional, it's a combination of simple denial and a lack of better options.  Could Russia make more conciliatory moves towards Kazakhstan?  Sure, but that would require Putin to acknowledge that Russia can no longer credibly bully its neighbors.  Likewise accepting whatever negotiated peace they can today in Ukraine would probably be better for Russia than whatever they can win on the battlefield six months from now when they have even fewer missiles, tanks, territory, etc.  But Putin finds losing now to be unacceptable, so he will continue in the vain hope that things will get better.  

But going deeper into the crevasse... Usually does not end well.

[Wilbur]

Leave their own dead behind, but instead steal a 300-year-old corpse.  Nice work Russia.

 

[Werthead]

Some US and UK analysts saying that whilst Russia has a lot of bodies it can put in trenches, they're not seeing the build-up of material needed for a major assault on Ukraine in January-March. Remember that a year ago, Russia had already put several tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine's borders already, more than two months before the invasion began. That number of forces is not simply present today, and there's zero sign of the artillery, tank and truck build-up in southern Belarus needed for another push on Kyiv. That could change and maybe more quickly than last year, but we should get some warning.

There's a lot more speculation that Ukraine's worries about an attack might be an attempt to light a fire under their allies for one last major push of resupply. Ukraine's military commanders have said they can now win the war - outright - with 500 more short and medium-range howitzers, 500 IFVs and 400 tanks. Assuming they're inflating what they need for urgency, that suggests they believe their attacking position is stronger than the Russians can defend against, and they can push on to victory with an achievable (if still relatively generous) further influx of arms.

The Russians have also, again, failed to make inroads around Bakhmut and the Ukrainians seem to be engaged in a wide-dispersal bombardment and special operations mission, ranging all the way from across the Dnipro near Kinburn and Kherson all the way towards Luhansk city, including heavy artillery fire directed at Donetsk city and Mariupol. It seems to be pinning a lot Russians in place whilst giving the Ukrainians freedom of action to decide on an area where they can push in a midwinter offensive (once the ground fully freezes over, which is happening in the next week or two). An attack towards Luhansk to collapse the entire NE end of the Russian line seems to be the favourite guess amongst western and Ukrainian commentators if Ukraine really is planning an advance.

Russian commentators seem to be saying that Bakhmut is now the lynchpin of the line. If Russia can take that they can push on to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, but that would seem to be opening them up to the risk of a counter-attack from multiple directions.

[Wilbur]

Murz, a pro-Russian militia fighter (LPR), states unequivocally that Russia is unready for such a Ukrainian attack in the winter.  He provides extensive details on why his invading forces won't survive a Ukrainian push.

Russian volunteer Murz on why Russia is not ready to defend Ukrainian winter offensive • WarTranslated

[Wilbur]

Estonia is the Sergeant telling you to change your socks:  

 

[Werthead]

3 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Estonia is the Sergeant telling you to change your socks:  

Estonia is very random but also kind of awesome. I visited Tallinn not really knowing what to expect (it was a day-trip as part of a longer trip to Helsinki) and discovered that all pubs served breakfast, all pubs served alcohol from opening at ~7am, and they have effectively a miniature version of Minas Tirith in the middle of the city. Amazing.

[Jace, Extat]

7 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Estonia is the Sergeant telling you to change your socks:  

 

They should publicly offer them to the Russians too, at the same price the Ukrainians got them

"War is simply the continuation  of political intercourse with the addition of other means."

[The Anti-Targ]

War is simply the inevitable consequence of political discourse that does not seek to achieve equity and justice for all participants, but rather seeks the subjugation of the interests of some parties for the furtherance of the interests of others.

[Jace, Extat]

32 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

War is simply the inevitable consequence of political discourse that does not seek to achieve equity and justice for all participants, but rather seeks the subjugation of the interests of some parties for the furtherance of the interests of others.

Also known as:

Hi, have you met Man? Here he is, about to kill you and take your stuff up to and incuding the skin off your back and the flesh off your bones

Here Man is, doing those things to you now.

Would you like to know more?

[SeanF]

9 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Murz, a pro-Russian militia fighter (LPR), states unequivocally that Russia is unready for such a Ukrainian attack in the winter.  He provides extensive details on why his invading forces won't survive a Ukrainian push.

Russian volunteer Murz on why Russia is not ready to defend Ukrainian winter offensive • WarTranslated

That is excellent news.

[A wilding]

8 hours ago, Fire and Jace said:

Also known as:

Hi, have you met Man? Here he is, about to kill you and take your stuff up to and incuding the skin off your back and the flesh off your bones

Here Man is, doing those things to you now.

Would you like to know more?

Straight out of Houston Houston, Do You Read

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

More reports of Russian Units shooting at each other:

https://post.news/article/2JBeKX5SmYvKzfosZxvrS2p4e0w

[Wilbur]

It looks like the DNR's government is ready to fight to the last man and beyond.  Women in Donetsk have begun to receive draft notices.

[Wilbur]

Also fun:  Russian Lancet loitering munitions struck and destroyed a former Russian / former Ukrainian / former Soviet S-300 radar.  An interesting read on the story:

 

[Maithanet]

Zelensky is apparently going to visit Washington and address Congress next week.  Interesting.

[DMC]

47 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Zelensky is apparently going to visit Washington and address Congress next week.  Interesting.

Reportedly it will be tomorrow (Wednesday).  He really wants that omnibus passed.

[The Anti-Targ]

I'm sure he also wants to secure the support of the soon to be Republican majority House, and to challenge any pro-Putin Republicans to refuse him to his face. Which I would wager all such house members would be too cowardly to do.

[DMC]

28 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I'm sure he also wants to secure the support of the soon to be Republican majority House, and to challenge any pro-Putin Republicans to refuse him to his face. Which I would wager all such house members would be too cowardly to do.

If the omnibus gets passed he doesn't have to worry about the Republican House until September/October.  There's really no point to show up now for that.