What if Hoster Tully had been healthy by the time of the novels ?

[astarkchoice]

44 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Right I'm also factoring in that the Wastelands camp is spread out over at least six miles. Even giving them a leisurely 20 minute mile pace marching *should* still get them to the edge of the Lannister camp before a sizable chunk of Lannister men can even get halfway across the camp*.

Were Roose even more adventuresome than one would think, he could have used the cavalry a la Tywin to start fires, sow chaos, et al. He does, after all, have more than a few groupings of twenty good men.

There's a lot we can pick apart in hindsight but the seemingly misfitting strategy and tactics deployed Roose either show he's fairly incompetent and indecisive -- a touch of McClellan perhaps -- or he was achieving Robb's orders in the absolute worst way possible for his own benefit. Roose has never struck me as incompetent nor indecisive. 

* obviously making educated guesses here as the detail of how the camp is laid out is lacking 

Your forgetting the northerners arent formed up.right yet either they are marching so a lot of them wont be in  the battle for mins after its started either if they just zerg rushed the camp and again starting the battle.like that forgoes all tactics and formations itd be chaos....chaos with the advantage of suprise  yes but tired from marching all night  men who are outnumbered massively in heavy horse.

 

The cavalry idea could.def work yes but flipside is less  than one  10th of the lannister horse has to get ready (probably spread out in varous mobile stables too )to counter them ........ and worse if the northerners dont take the time to form  up properly the 7.5k lannister heavy horse could eventualy  potentialy mow them all down like grass!  

 

No overall  roose did just fine here the night march was a good but  risky  plan esp.with brynden tully taking out lannister scouts to prep it......a few more  of them killed and/or a few more minutes would have made all the difference here...it was a close call for tywin basicaly (who didnt do anything wrong here either as  despite bynden murdering a good few scouts there were still sufficent patrols  to get word back just in time! )

[astarkchoice]

57 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

It's still risky though, riskier than it would've been otherwise since Roose just has 500-600 horse. But instead of dispersing them among his infantry as standard bearers like we see through the eyes of Tyrion, he should've sent them all to deal a sudden blow to Tywin's camp while the infantry was still in the move and retreat, either back to their own lines or behind Tywin's lines if it was possible in the cover of night.

Maybe but we can assume when the scouts spot the northerners move south its most likely the northern cavalry is already  at the front as it moves quicker (plus brynden may have been commanding it to help ambush lannister scouts as best he  can to help the night march maximise suprise) 

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

Your forgetting the northerners arent formed up.right yet either they are marching so a lot of them wont be in  the battle for mins after its started either if they just zerg rushed the camp and again starting the battle.like that forgoes all tactics and formations itd be chaos....chaos with the advantage of suprise  yes but tired from marching all night  men who are outnumbered massively in heavy horse.

Right it's vague as to who was actually set up first but the Northerns would have run the risk of being outflanked / enveloped by the cavalry.

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

The cavalry idea could.def work yes but flipside is less  than one  10th of the lannister horse has to get ready (probably spread out in varous mobile stables too )to counter them ........ and worse if the northerners dont take the time to form  up properly the 7.5k lannister heavy horse could eventualy  potentialy mow them all down like grass!  

Light horse coming in setting fires / running down unarmored soldiers for a few rounds would have done a *lot* and risked very little. There are always weak spots in a perimeter at night. At worst the skirmishers would have been driven off with light losses.

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

No overall  roose did just fine here the night march was a good but  risky  plan esp.with brynden tully taking out lannister scouts to prep it......a few more  of them killed and/or a few more minutes would have made all the difference here...it was a close call for tywin basicaly (who didnt do anything wrong here either as  despite bynden murdering a good few scouts there were still sufficent patrols  to get word back just in time! )

I really cannot agree with this assessment. If your objective is to keep Tywin on the east side of the trident, conflict isn't strictly necessary. The army's mere presence keeps Tywin athwart them on the kings road. Exhausting your troops to leave a defensible position and charge a superior force is not a smart move, especially given the amount of time Roose gave the Lannisters. Again it boils down to incompetence or malice and Roose is well regarded for a reason.

[astarkchoice]

30 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Right it's vague as to who was actually set up first but the Northerns would have run the risk of being outflanked / enveloped by the cavalry.

Light horse coming in setting fires / running down unarmored soldiers for a few rounds would have done a *lot* and risked very little. There are always weak spots in a perimeter at night. At worst the skirmishers would have been driven off with light losses.

I really cannot agree with this assessment. If your objective is to keep Tywin on the east side of the trident, conflict isn't strictly necessary. The army's mere presence keeps Tywin athwart them on the kings road. Exhausting your troops to leave a defensible position and charge a superior force is not a smart move, especially given the amount of time Roose gave the Lannisters. Again it boils down to incompetence or malice and Roose is well regarded for a reason.

True

 

They can do that yeah but without the backing of foot (who are already going as fast as they can so wont be there til morning ) they cant do much esp if being harassed by fellow light cavalry scouts and increasjng numbers of awakened troops.

Maybe if the fires had caught a favourable breeze  and panic spreads  they scatter a good few of the troops and maybe some cavalry and tire many fighting the fires etc 

 

Again we literaly know they were mins from success!  forming up one mile away means this could have been a massive win....this came down to the wire, shit  it could have been a single scout escaping brynden for all.we know

bryndens skill  at using home.territory knowledge to ambush scouts may have helped persude roose thats its worth the risk 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

On 12/5/2022 at 8:00 PM, Alden Rothack said:

They might go for it after Renly dies but not before

Catelyn could have had the chance if she hadn't been here when Renly died, and if she didn't take Brienne's defense forcing them to flee. 

On 12/5/2022 at 9:07 PM, Alden Rothack said:

Robb shouldn't have been there in the first place, the Crag is a ruin that ten men could have taken

He was there for the purpose of the story, though to be fair the damage of the deal with Jeyne isn't that grave if you know how trustworthy the Freys were, save for the few good and honorable of them. 

[Alden Rothack]

8 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Catelyn could have had the chance if she hadn't been here when Renly died, and if she didn't take Brienne's defense forcing them to flee. 

He was there for the purpose of the story, though to be fair the damage of the deal with Jeyne isn't that grave if you know how trustworthy the Freys were, save for the few good and honorable of them. 

the timing was poor, Catelyn meeting with them at Bitterbridge would have been better in that respect

the mistake Robb made with the freys was not marrying Roslin immediately or keeping Stevron from dying,

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

2 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

the timing was poor, Catelyn meeting with them at Bitterbridge would have been better in that respect

the mistake Robb made with the freys was not marrying Roslin immediately or keeping Stevron from dying,

His mistake with the Freys was trusting Walder and most of his descendants in the first place, they would have turned on him one way or another.  

Stevron was decent and noble, but in minority in his awful and treacherous family, and Robb certainely wouldn't have imagined that Stevron's own grandson would be willing to murder him. Because yes I do believe that Black Walder poisonned his own grandfather to speed up his ascension as Lord of the Twins.

[Alden Rothack]

2 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

His mistake with the Freys was trusting Walder and most of his descendants in the first place, they would have turned on him one way or another.  

Stevron was decent and noble, but in minority in his awful and treacherous family, and Robb certainely wouldn't have imagined that Stevron's own grandson would be willing to murder him. Because yes I do believe that Black Walder poisonned his own grandfather to speed up his ascension as Lord of the Twins.

The only reason I have to doubt that is that Ryman is still alive despite the obviously advantages of it being otherwise

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

6 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

The only reason I have to doubt that is that Ryman is still alive despite the obviously advantages of it being otherwise

Edwyn believes otherwise, after their father's death. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

15 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

The only reason I have to doubt that is that Ryman is still alive despite the obviously advantages of it being otherwise

Well the BWB got Ryman before Black Walder  could get his father. 

[Angel Eyes]

3 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

His mistake with the Freys was trusting Walder and most of his descendants in the first place, they would have turned on him one way or another.  

Stevron was decent and noble, but in minority in his awful and treacherous family, and Robb certainely wouldn't have imagined that Stevron's own grandson would be willing to murder him. Because yes I do believe that Black Walder poisonned his own grandfather to speed up his ascension as Lord of the Twins.

Or at the least let his wounds fester, wasn't he killed at Oxcross?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 minute ago, Angel Eyes said:

Or at the least let his wounds fester, wasn't he killed at Oxcross?

He was wounded at Oxcross, but his wound wasn't thought to be serious until he died three days later. Still suspicious enough. 

[Alden Rothack]

18 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Edwyn believes otherwise, after their father's death. 

yes well he hates Black Walder

10 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Well the BWB got Ryman before Black Walder  could get his father. 

he took his time then

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 hour ago, Alden Rothack said:

yes well he hates Black Walder

he took his time then

He might had not found an opportunity of getting his father until the BWB did the job for him. Also his grandfather was most surely an easier target due to the circumstances being more favorable, as it would have made it look like he died of an infected wound, and that unlike his son, grandsons and most of his family Stevron believed in blood being blood and was less likely to suspect an attempt on his life by his own kin.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Terrorthatflapsinthenight9

[Alden Rothack]

3 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

He might had not found an opportunity of getting his father until the BWB did the job for him. Also his grandfather was most surely an easier target due to the circumstances being more favorable, as it would have made it look like he died of an infected wound, and that unlike his son, grandsons and most of his family Stevron believed in blood being blood and was less likely to suspect an attempt on his life by his own kin.

thats certainly possible

[James Arryn]

Kinda divergent, but just want to say that there’s a lot of hindsight operant here in evaluating the right and wrong move.m

 

Take, for example, Edmure’s choice of not concentrating everything at the Golden Tooth. Wrong? Well, as it played out, yes. But we only know that in hindsight. What if instead Tywin brings the bulk of his forces up through Deep Den or along Ironman’s Bay…those forces massed before the Golden Tooth are in immediate danger of being surrounded, and at best pull back. Etc.

Similarly with ‘letting’ his lords protect their families. That’s a fundamental misunderstanding of feudal dynamics. Feudal kingship is not the same as nationalism, it does not involve automatic or assumed authority. Lords/barons strike a deal with their ruler, they will provide X and receive Y. Their only obligation comes if/when they swear an oath of loyalty, and those can be retracted if the ruler is not holding up his end, either literally as happens often or in practice by just not showing up. See Frey, Walder. And pretty high up on the list of things feudal barons would expect in return for their allegiance is the protection of their homes and families. Demand that your lords sacrifice those for the ‘greater good’, ie for the ruler’s family and power, say, and you’ll soon find yourself without any followers. Arguing it was the soundest big picture strategy…and again, that all depends…is kinda beside the point. Will you sacrifice your family so that someone else gets to keep their title?  
 

[Alden Rothack]

12 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Kinda divergent, but just want to say that there’s a lot of hindsight operant here in evaluating the right and wrong move.m

 

Take, for example, Edmure’s choice of not concentrating everything at the Golden Tooth. Wrong? Well, as it played out, yes. But we only know that in hindsight. What if instead Tywin brings the bulk of his forces up through Deep Den or along Ironman’s Bay…those forces massed before the Golden Tooth are in immediate danger of being surrounded, and at best pull back. Etc.

Similarly with ‘letting’ his lords protect their families. That’s a fundamental misunderstanding of feudal dynamics. Feudal kingship is not the same as nationalism, it does not involve automatic or assumed authority. Lords/barons strike a deal with their ruler, they will provide X and receive Y. Their only obligation comes if/when they swear an oath of loyalty, and those can be retracted if the ruler is not holding up his end, either literally as happens often or in practice by just not showing up. See Frey, Walder. And pretty high up on the list of things feudal barons would expect in return for their allegiance is the protection of their homes and families. Demand that your lords sacrifice those for the ‘greater good’, ie for the ruler’s family and power, say, and you’ll soon find yourself without any followers. Arguing it was the soundest big picture strategy…and again, that all depends…is kinda beside the point. Will you sacrifice your family so that someone else gets to keep their title?  
 

It was a poor decision because it failed in the former case due to being outnumbered by jaimes force and ensured they would be defeated piecemeal in the latter, both f which were completely foreseeable under the circumstances

 

[James Arryn]

2 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

It was a poor decision because it failed in the former case due to being outnumbered by jaimes force and ensured they would be defeated piecemeal in the latter, both f which were completely foreseeable under the circumstances

 

Not sure which of the two decisions you are citing here, as either might possibly explain this response. I’ll disagree with both, but for along different lines, but those I already mentioned so apparently we see this differently. 

[Alden Rothack]

3 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Not sure which of the two decisions you are citing here, as either might possibly explain this response. I’ll disagree with both, but for along different lines, but those I already mentioned so apparently we see this differently. 

apparently

[frenin]

3 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Not sure which of the two decisions you are citing here, as either might possibly explain this response. I’ll disagree with both, but for along different lines, but those I already mentioned so apparently we see this differently. 

Tbf, it was a poor's decision because Edmure was likely having a different info than Tywin. I doubt he was expecting the total war because he was not expecting Robert and Ned to fall.