U.S politics: You got knocked the Warnocked out:

[JGP]

7 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Good column by JMart: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/12/13/2024-campaigns-trump-biden-00073548

I think at this point it's inevitable that Biden will run, and it is the wrong decision to do so.  

I don't know. If having Warnock finally lets Harris loose, a bit, where she can get real again? Very curious to see what she might try to spearhead or lend cause to. Biden running again, if things continue this sort of baseline [which cannot be assumed] I could see he and Harris winning again, provided independent proof of faculties.

I don't know what Trump's chances are. Not good. DeSantis, if that miracle happened, would lose on broad appeal. His past in Florida, political and otherwise, his clownish behavior [we'll get to see clips of him berating young teenagers for wearing masks behind him at a public event until we're sick of it] I mean, come on Republicans. 

I see no way to fix this beyond fracture of the Party, but the likelihood of that happening is zero. More SC thuggery? 

How, barring another massive, political or humanitarian, upheaval... what, Republicans, do you got?  

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 minutes ago, JGP said:

DeSantis, if that miracle happened, would lose on broad appeal. His past in Florida, political and otherwise, his clownish behavior [we'll get to see clips of him berating young teenagers for wearing masks behind him at a public event until we're sick of it] I mean, come on Republicans. 

I wouldn’t assume that.  In many ways DeSantis is more dangerous than Trump.  Trump is lazy and incompetent… DeSantis plays to the same crowd with enough knowledge of how the State works to be much more effective at manipulating the devices of the State.

[JGP]

9 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I wouldn’t assume that.  In many ways DeSantis is more dangerous than Trump.  Trump is lazy and incompetent… DeSantis plays to the same crowd with enough knowledge of how the State works to be much more effective at manipulating the devices of the State.

He'd have to seriously down tune his bend on policy nationwide, and how do you reconcile that? The segment you're discussing exist in every nation I think, but in the US the midterms put paid to that. For now. Now's when you punch down and hammer through every good you can. As much as you can. Now would be a great time for national legislation about guaranteed paid time off, and make sure it's inclusive of freelancers and contractors. 

Go totally pinko and drive them wild lol 

Gentlemens' bet that Desantis is a national, Republican brick if say, Trump were to have an unfortunate coronary event or something?   

[Larry of the Lawn]

3 minutes ago, JGP said:

He'd have to seriously down tune his bend on policy nationwide, and how do you reconcile that? The segment you're discussing exist in every nation I think, but in the US the midterms put paid to that. For now. Now's when you punch down and hammer through every good you can. As much as you can. Now would be a great time for national legislation about guaranteed paid time off, and make sure it's inclusive of freelancers and contractors. 

Go totally pinko and drive them wild lol 

Gentlemens' bet that Desantis is a national, Republican brick if say, Trump were to have an unfortunate coronary event or something?   

I think the Dems got a huge boost last month from Roe v Wade getting overturned.  While a bunch of Trump/MAGA aligned candidates lost, they aren't that far from the average GOP congress person on policy.  And the fact that he isn't specifically Trump is probably enough to get a bunch of GOP voters who maybe split their ticket with Trump or stayed home to simply pull the Republican lever again.

[Jace, Extat]

DeSantis is just another opportunist. You overvalue him.

I do not disagree that he plays nasty, that he's crooked as crick in the woods, and that as a part of a broader pattern represents another danger moment for the immolated remains of this republic; namely in his and those like him being able to name the New Normal once Trump really is gone. It'll be bad. You're gonna lose some stuff. What the federal government can memorandum into existence it can un-memorandum. Yeah, it's sad. But DeSantis ain't the next Trump he's just the next Republican and this is what they are now. Like Trump

The next Trump won't be like Trump, he'll be completely different. And that's what people will love about him: he's completely different, just like Trump 

 

In brief: Yes, the shark is still here and it has spawned other sharks that are still here, but do not call either thing a Sharknado because when the Sharknado gets here you're not going to have escalatory language available to highlight the magnitude of the threat. 

Y'know, like what happened with Trump

my money is on the Q psycho that did that fuck-crazy workout routine where she used the chin-up bar of a squat rack to flap herself clean like a pair of sudsy jeans. It was the goddamndest thing I ever saw. 

It was either Taylor-Green or Boebert, I refuse to learn the difference: and imma say it, they all look the fucking same to me:

Anyway, one of you dorks shared that tweet video here and I said "THAT is the first Lady President."

 

Eta: escalatory spelled with a fucking A

[ThinkerX]

40 minutes ago, DMC said:

Surprised no one's mentioned USA Today/Suffolk's shock poll that has DeSantis up on Trump 56 to 33.  It's a pretty small sample of Republican primary voters, on 374, but I believe that's the first legit poll to have Trump losing the primary.  Morning Consult's primary tracker has a much larger sample, and there Trump is still leading 49 to 31. 

But even there DeSantis is catching up to Trump on favorability.  Trump still has the highest favorability at 75%, with DeSantis now at 66%.  Big difference though is DeSantis only has a 10% unfavorable compared to Trump's 24%.  The other most well known candidates - Cruz and Pence - already hold much higher unfavorables (20 and 33%, respectively) despite having favorables close to DeSantis (61 and 57%).

This agrees with what I have been seeing in the comments sections to various political articles - former Trump fans are migrating towards DeSantis. The reasoning, such as it is, runs along the lines of 'Trump was a GREAT president. But he got smeared so badly by the mainstream media he can't run. And, oh yeah, he bent the law a few times.' DeSantis is seen as strong and patriotic, somebody who will crush the liberals.

 

[JGP]

1 minute ago, Larry of the Lake said:

I think the Dems got a huge boost last month from Roe v Wade getting overturned.  While a bunch of Trump/MAGA aligned candidates lost, they aren't that far from the average GOP congress person on policy.  And the fact that he isn't specifically Trump is probably enough to get a bunch of GOP voters who maybe split their ticket with Trump or stayed home to simply pull the Republican lever again.

I appreciate that. How do you think the Republicans plan to capture a very engaged youth vote? Strong ethnic splits for the Dems? I mean, yes, the right and MAGA are turning out. Absolutely. So are a lot of other voters. 

A lot going on. 

I don't know. Outside looking in, US is looking the best it has in years. I'm not wildly optimistic, mind, and the SC is something else, what may or may not not be coming down the pipe about Trump and Jan6, the classified documents, I mean. In what world, how do Republicans sell any of that? 

Feels like death knell reverbs.  

[Jace, Extat]

11 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

This agrees with what I have been seeing in the comments sections to various political articles - former Trump fans are migrating towards DeSantis. The reasoning, such as it is, runs along the lines of 'Trump was a GREAT president. But he got smeared so badly by the mainstream media he can't run. And, oh yeah, he bent the law a few times.' DeSantis is seen as strong and patriotic, somebody who will crush the liberals.

 

Those are the normies though (as those types go). The ones who really were probably horrified on Jan 6th, but when they had lies to turn to again (actors, antifa, whatever) were happy to do so. 

In large part because liberals dithered instead of acting, but that's a seperate thing.

The cray crays won't settle for DeSantis for longer than getting rid of President Biden because the thing you guys think is so dangerous about DeSantis, his ability to act normal, is exactly what they don't want.

DeSantis is a step along the path, he is not the endgame. He's going to empower the Qpeople further, but that's not where his power comes from. You need to fear the Qpeople

[DMC]

I do think the shine will come off DeSantis once the primary season gets heated up.  As has been discussed repeatedly, he is not lazy and incompetent like Trump, granted.  Moreover, his competence is not just in doing evil things once in power - he's also a competent campaigner/electoral strategist.  A lot of his ads leading up to November had him hitting Crist on education, basically, FROM THE LEFT.  It was all Alice in Wonderland horseshit of course, but I could definitely see swing voters - i.e. uneducated white males - eating his messaging up.

OTOH, I agree with Jace that he plainly lacks the charisma and "it" factor of Trump.  I wouldn't be surprised if he looks a lot like Ted Cruz once the Republican debates start.  We'll see, just saying I wouldn't coronate him just yet and the insane Republican party is what we really need to fear - definitely not DeSantis or any other wannabe Trump successor.  As of yet, that is.

[JGP]

54 minutes ago, DMC said:

Surprised no one's mentioned USA Today/Suffolk's shock poll that has DeSantis up on Trump 56 to 33.  It's a pretty small sample of Republican primary voters, on 374, but I believe that's the first legit poll to have Trump losing the primary.  Morning Consult's primary tracker has a much larger sample, and there Trump is still leading 49 to 31. 

But even there DeSantis is catching up to Trump on favorability.  Trump still has the highest favorability at 75%, with DeSantis now at 66%.  Big difference though is DeSantis only has a 10% unfavorable compared to Trump's 24%.  The other most well known candidates - Cruz and Pence - already hold much higher unfavorables (20 and 33%, respectively) despite having favorables close to DeSantis (61 and 57%).

I missed this post, but was pointed out to me.

Ain't that something. The conclusion isn't implausible. 

Unless the Biden admin fuck it horribly somehow, and yes, they've made mistakes, how do Republicans win the next presidential?     

 

[JGP]

14 minutes ago, Fire and Jace said:

DeSantis is a step along the path, he is not the endgame. He's going to empower the Qpeople further, but that's not where his power comes from. You need to fear the Qpeople

Really?

This is bold.

Keep going, Jace

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, JGP said:

Unless the Biden admin fuck it horribly somehow, and yes, they've made mistakes, how do Republicans win the next presidential?     

I mean, as always, a lot is going to depend on the environment come 2024, something we have no idea about right now.  I also think Biden is a pretty weak candidate, at least for an incumbent.  Especially against a guy like DeSantis, the age difference is going to be glaring.  Dude's like almost literally half his age.

[Jace, Extat]

2 minutes ago, JGP said:

Really?

This is bold.

Keep going, Jace

I am Ubaluta, of the Time

Fear my foretellery huuu-maan

[DMC]

Fun fact:  When Ron DeSantis was born Joe Biden was completing his fifth year as US Senator.

[Larry of the Lawn]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Fun fact:  When Ron DeSantis was born Joe Biden was completing his fifth year as US Senator.

Damn, I would have guessed DeSantis was like 55.  This makes me feel old.  

[JGP]

 

 

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

I mean, as always, a lot is going to depend on the environment come 2024, something we have no idea about right now.  I also think Biden is a pretty weak candidate, at least for an incumbent.  Especially against a guy like DeSantis, the age difference is going to be glaring.  Dude's like almost literally half his age.

Sure. But would that even give him a couch for his idiocy? Feels like it would make middle aged men look bad on a national stage, when Uncle Joe is the one out there. DeSantis  

Selling more corporate tax cuts and fostering a trickle down spend approach to whatever level of global recession we hit by then. What the response is. There's this whole, Americans spoke the last elections. What could DeSantis, or Trump, I'm trying to imagine what they could do. The instinct for Republicans would be what, corporate tax rates and loopholes? Something dumb like that. Oh and hey, charter and private schools are the best. Woke. Bespoke. Whatever. Jesus riding dinosaurs and anything non heteronormative is bad, and oh look, we'll actually punish and make life harder for everyone who isn't, etc. etc. Don't talk back to us, didn't you see me kick Mickey Mouse in the fucking nuts?

How is that not a hard no with the US electorate?    

Totally not talking like I'm right here, btw. Just curious how Republican strategists are looking at where it's at, and likely to be, if norms [for that that's worth] are otherwise maintained.    

[JGP]

18 minutes ago, Fire and Jace said:

I am Ubaluta, of the Time

Fear my foretellery huuu-maan

Word? I'm somewhat acquainted with Unutuu. Nice to meetcha.

Foretell away, Ubaluta. Tell us of this place your prison, Time. I fear my daughters' judgment.  

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, JGP said:

How is that not a hard no with the US electorate?    

I mean, this may be the electorate that rejected Trump in 2020 (and 2018, and 2022), but in the SAME election Republicans picked up 14 seats in the House.  The electorate is not only extremely polarized, it's also extremely evenly divided.

Moreover, in regards to the environment, Biden is currently riding high after a historically successful midterm - in addition to a historically successful 117th Congress.  And yet according to 538's aggregate, his approval is still only at 42%.  Presidents simply don't get reelected with 42% approval.  They also almost always don't get reelected under bad economies.  Obama may have transcended that, but do you really think Biden will be able to?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

For all we know it will be some random ass celebrity that's never held office and encourages us to drink bleach.

Oh, wait... 

[Jace, Extat]

13 minutes ago, JGP said:

Word? I'm somewhat acquainted with Unutuu. Nice to meetcha.

Foretell away, Ubaluta. Tell us of this place your prison, Time. I fear my daughters' judgment.  

Be burdened by these fears no longer, Son of Maans. For the goodnessness and happiableisticity of each moment is found within itself.

As for Unutuu... 

What, you think that because we're both U's we know each other? 

Find a mirror, brother. Find a mirror...