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U.S politics: You got knocked the Warnocked out:


Varysblackfyre321

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21 minutes ago, DMC said:

First, it failed, disastrously, in the 2000s despite Dubya hugely investing in the campaign upon his reelect.  Second, you're talking about abolishing SS and Medicare.  All Dubya tried to do was partially privatize social security.

I wasn't actually just talking about that - the statement 'as a public good if not entirely gone' that I made was specifically meant to be pointing that they'd want to at least take it private. Sorry if that wasn't clearer. 

And I think that it failed largely because at the time the Republican party had a lot more McCain types. I don't see how that works now. 

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2 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

I wasn't actually just talking about that - the statement 'as a public good if not entirely gone' that I made was specifically meant to be pointing that they'd want to at least take it private. Sorry if that wasn't clearer. 

Yeah it wasn't clear when that sentence starts as "abolishing" it.  Partially privatizing SS is not abolishing it.  Same goes for Medicare, but then Dubya never tried to even do that.  Would a GOP trifecta try to cut or partially privatize both SS and Medicare?  Maybe, or even probably.  Would they be successful in such efforts?  Very unlikely.  This is the party that couldn't even figure out how to repeal Obamacare.

5 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

And I think that it failed largely because at the time the Republican party had a lot more McCain types. I don't see how that works now. 

No, it failed because the more the GOP pushed for it the less popular it got.  And it wasn't popular to begin with.  Moreover, the GOP relies on people that use/qualify for/collect Medicare and SS to vote for them far more than they did twenty years ago.  That's their base.

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Just now, DMC said:

Yeah it wasn't clear when that sentence starts as "abolishing" it.  Partially privatizing SS is not abolishing it.  Same goes for Medicare, but then Dubya never tried to even do that.  Would a GOP trifecta try to cut or partially privatize both SS and Medicare?  Maybe, or even probably.  Would they be successful in such efforts?  Very unlikely.  This is the party that couldn't even figure out how to repeal Obamacare.

They lost that by exactly one vote, and since then have purged basically anyone who would remotely challenge that status quo. 

I'll put it another way: Republican candidates are less popular than they once were because of policies exactly like this. That makes them less likely to get elected - that, and they're just not running good candidates. HOWEVER, if they do get elected they'll be going after policies just like this. 

Just now, DMC said:

No, it failed because the more the GOP pushed for it the less popular it got.  And it wasn't popular to begin with.  Moreover, the GOP relies on people that use/qualify for/collect Medicare and SS to vote for them far more than they did twenty years ago.  That's their base.

That base does not appear to be at all caring about this issue and does not appear to change their vote for it at all. Otherwise why would Rick Scott go out and actively support it? Why would DeSantis? Regardless of whether or not you think it's political suicide or not it doesn't appear to be the case that Republicans do.

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1 minute ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

They lost that by exactly one vote, and since then have purged basically anyone who would remotely challenge that status quo. 

Er..not really.  They lost it because McCain, Collins, and Murkowski voted against it.  McCain's seat went to a Democrat and the other two are still around.  This isn't a convincing argument at all on how things have changed since then.

4 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

That base does not appear to be at all caring about this issue and does not appear to change their vote for it at all. Otherwise why would Rick Scott go out and actively support it? Why would DeSantis? Regardless of whether or not you think it's political suicide or not it doesn't appear to be the case that Republicans do.

McConnell does.  Hence him trashing his own campaign chair in Scott and the feud therein.  As for DeSantis, I'm not sure where he's been for it.  It's not like him and Scott are interchangeable.  The two really don't like each other, frankly.

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4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Er..not really.  They lost it because McCain, Collins, and Murkowski voted against it.  McCain's seat went to a Democrat and the other two are still around.  This isn't a convincing argument at all on how things have changed since then.

Again, I'll say it that different way - if Republicans currently get the majority it'll be with Republicans who aren't like McCain, Collins and Murkowski. It'll be with people like JD Vance and Walker. I don't know why you chose to remove that part of my argument but the point is still there - that if Republicans win elections and get a majority the candidates they get in are not going to be the same kind of ones that are like McCain. Now, Murkowski and Collins are special and may not go along with all of these things - maybe (I'd say Collins would, Murkowski wouldn't) - but getting 53 senators isn't too hard for them in 2024 - and if they do those senators won't be moderate. They'll be red meat Trumpist garbage people. 

And it should be a concern because 2024 will have Trump on the ballot, most likely, and with that you'll get more voters voting for garbage people that Trump likes. Though I suppose that's a silver lining - we'll either likely get DeSantis with DeSantis levels of enthusiasm for downballot races, or we'll get Trump. Chances are good we won't get DeSantis winning and actual good candidates that can also win for Senate picking up a lot of support and enthusiasm. 

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

McConnell does.  Hence him trashing his own campaign chair in Scott and the feud therein.  As for DeSantis, I'm not sure where he's been for it.  It's not like him and Scott are interchangeable.  The two really don't like each other, frankly.

McConnell thinks like you, that's true. But he's also someone who was against Trump at times and against a lot of those things, and he'll still reliably vote the party line. His viewpoint is becoming significantly smaller over time - which is my point. DeSantis will be for whatever gives him the most money, so as soon as he can get insurance companies on his side he'll be 100% in favor. 

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4 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

if Republicans currently get the majority it'll be with Republicans who aren't like McCain, Collins and Murkowski.

....Except it will be with Collins and Murkowski.  And now Romney.  Which means you gotta add at least 3 to your majority in order to get anything like what you're referring to done.  That's my point.  I'm not "removing" any part of your argument, I'm saying it is flawed because it is.  And acting like the GOP getting 53 Senators in 2024 "isn't hard" is LOL.  And even if they do, again, you're talking about privatizing Medicare and SS, NOT repealing Obamacare.  There's very likely others beyond the above three that would oppose that as well.

As for "having Trump on the ballot" making a difference in 2024, having Trump on the ballot can only help Dems.

10 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

McConnell thinks like you, that's true.

Er, definitely wouldn't say McConnell thinks like me.  Unless you're suggesting he has a basic understanding of politics and the American electorate.  Sure.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

The point about abolishing it is setting the federal income tax rate to zero isn't going to happen.

Neither is this.

Oh no, I feel yet another a 2-3 page (minimum) back-and-forth between you two sucking up all the oxygen of this thread. 

Any chance that whenever 8+ posts are solely between two posters that they might decide to take it to PM? :unsure:

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Ser Reptitious said:

Oh no, I feel yet another a 2-3 page (minimum) back-and-forth between you two sucking up all the oxygen of this thread. 

Nah the Magic are playing losing in an hour, so I'm out then for sure.

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9 minutes ago, Ser Reptitious said:

Oh no, I feel yet another a 2-3 page (minimum) back-and-forth between you two sucking up all the oxygen of this thread. 

Any chance that whenever 8+ posts are solely between two posters that they might decide to take it to PM? :unsure:

Eh. I've been posting less on here so chances are good that isn't going to happen, at least with me. 

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Nah the Magic are playing losing in an hour, so I'm out then for sure.

You two can do a lot of arguing in an hour! :P

In all seriousness, it's not meant to be suggested as a rule, but I think it'd be a good convention that when two people get caught up in a passionate, continuous back-and-forth, taking it to PM would be appreciated by everyone else following a particular thread. :)

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2 minutes ago, Ser Reptitious said:

In all seriousness, it's not meant to be suggested as a rule, but I think it'd be a good convention that when two people get caught up in a passionate, continuous back-and-forth, taking it to PM would be appreciated by everyone else following a particular thread. :)

I'd agree except I don't think this particular example has been particularly passionate nor contentious.  Just..fast.

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Somewhat related to the above Trump is finding that he is having a very hard time dominating the news cycle, at least so far. What mentions he's getting are largely around either his failed endorsements, his losing lawsuits, or actual bad behaviors that he's doing (such as finding even more classified documents in his possession):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/07/donald-trump-2024-stunts-attention/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wp_homepage

Probably a good sign for DeSantis and Republicans in general if this keeps up. Still better than DeSantis right now, but that could change quickly:

Quote

 

In terms of Google’s search index, Trump’s announcement was a tad more interesting than the mad rush for Taylor Swift tickets and much less grabby than a big soccer tournament. And his dinner with Ye and Fuentes, so far, seems to be a non-event.

Trump still holds advantages in his attempt to recapture the White House. He is leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by nearly double digits in the RealClearPolitics average of Republican presidential primary polls. And he is still the biggest name in Republican politics: Trump’s announcement speech generated far more Google searches for him than DeSantis’s blowout reelection did for him.

But Trump isn’t new or exciting anymore — and he can’t bend media coverage toward himself at will. If he wants to win another term, he will have to do it the old-fashioned way: by touting his record as president, building a coalition and relying on TV just a little less.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Ser Reptitious said:

Oh no, I feel yet another a 2-3 page (minimum) back-and-forth between you two sucking up all the oxygen of this thread. 

Is this the point in the wrestling match where I'm suppose to emerge from the crowd with a steel chair?

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1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

That'd be such a Florida thing to do. (188)

 

Thanks for the assist. :bowdown:

If we're building out Florida Man, the wrestler, he's absolutely bringing a live gator to the ring during his walk up.

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41 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

That'd be such a Florida thing to do. (188)

 

Thanks for the assist. :bowdown:

If you're committed to this interminably stupid exercise at least have the basic awareness to know the Tampa police chief just resigned for being a major league moron.  Fucking amateur.

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46 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

If we're building out Florida Man, the wrestler, he's absolutely bringing a live gator to the ring during his walk up.

He would be one armed for obvious reasons. You know Florida (187)

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

If you're committed to this interminably stupid exercise at least have the basic awareness to know the Tampa police chief just resigned for being a major league moron.  Fucking amateur.

Quote

The Tampa Police Department has a code of conduct that includes high standards for ethical and professional behavior that apply to every member of our police force. As the Chief of Police, you are not only to abide by and enforce those standards but to also lead by example. That clearly did not happen in this case,” Castor said.

This is so not Florida (186).

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11 hours ago, Maithanet said:
There are six states that voted between 0 and 5 points more Republican than the nation in 2020:  Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.  Those states are represented by 11 democrats and 1 Republican (Ron Johnson in Wisconsin). 
You would think that with such a crushing advantage in slightly Republican states in the Senate that the Democrats would hold more than 51 seats, but that's the Senate math problem that the Democrats have right now. 

The mind boggles.  How many times can you get 1/1000 or so results before you wonder if it's new math?

7 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

 

Do you guys really want to become a third world nation that desperately?

Did well for myself on MRO and actually feasible energy companies the last few years.  What else are you bearish on?

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