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Who really hired the catspaw?


Aebram
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7 hours ago, Ran said:

Jeff was a long-time member of the forum, a lawyer by profession and a former military officer, not someone given to lying. He also forwarded the mail to me, and I still have it. All the headers checked out.

It's worth noting that that mail was sent to Jeff on the 29th of April... 8 days after George announced that he had turned in the manuscript for A Storm of Swords, which would be published in August.

Joffrey did it in the book canon. It's that simple. Joffrey's is the only name explicitly connected to the crime within the text, and his reveal that he was "familiar" with Valyrian Steel is interesting... because David and Dan dropped that from the TV show precisely because they wanted to change it to someone else (Littlefinger, in the case of the show, which is all sorts of hilarious and makes me wonder if they'd read my GUCT which pinned it on him.)

Thanks for providing this information. I certainly didn't intend to insult your friend; apologies if my words had that tone.

But the email only tells us that the answer will be somewhere in ASOS. It doesn't tell us who the culprit is, or even which chapter contains the evidence.

The arguments for Mance and Cersei both make use of text that is found in other parts of the same book.  And the references to Joffrey consists entirely of other characters guessing that he did it; none of them present any hard evidence.

So I think that the other theories still have merit ... unless you know something that the rest of us don't? Has George ever explicitly said or written that Joffrey is the culprit?

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10 hours ago, Aebram said:

So I think that the other theories still have merit ... unless you know something that the rest of us don't? Has George ever explicitly said or written that Joffrey is the culprit?

Can I ask you to look at it the other way: what in anything in ASOS makes it look like GRRM is revealing either Mance or Cersei as the culprit? 

It's clear that he is pointing to Joffrey but he uses character povs not an omniscient narrator so how could he point to Joffrey except through other character povs?

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11 hours ago, Aebram said:

Has George ever explicitly said or written that Joffrey is the culprit?

While Joffrey may indeed be the culprit as of ASOS, I don’t think it was the intention in AGoT. We know that Jaime was originally supposed to be a much more villainous character before GRRM decided to take a different route with him.

So my guess that it was initially supposed to be Jaime.
 

 

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22 hours ago, Ran said:

Jeff was a long-time member of the forum, a lawyer by profession and a former military officer, not someone given to lying. He also forwarded the mail to me, and I still have it. All the headers checked out.

It's worth noting that that mail was sent to Jeff on the 29th of April... 8 days after George announced that he had turned in the manuscript for A Storm of Swords, which would be published in August.

What letter? Does GRRM say in black and white that Joff did it?

Or is this the same comment about evidence being in Storm? Like a bag of silver...

22 hours ago, Ran said:

Joffrey did it in the book canon. It's that simple. Joffrey's is the only name explicitly connected to the crime within the text, and his reveal that he was "familiar" with Valyrian Steel is interesting... because David and Dan dropped that from the TV show precisely because they wanted to change it to someone else (Littlefinger, in the case of the show, which is all sorts of hilarious and makes me wonder if they'd read my GUCT which pinned it on him.)

I think you are wrong. But as someone with direct access to GRRM, if you swear he has told you without a doubt that it was Joff, then I'm hardly in a position to argue with such privileged information.

But, I know no canon but what is written.

Joff is not the only name explicitly connected to the crime, there are multiple other characters accused, like Tyrion.

We watch Joff order Ned's execution with Valyrian steel, literally the same steel he is holding in his hand when saying this line, we know, without a doubt, that Joff is no stranger to Valyrian Steel. Tyrion just wasn't there. How would Joff remember the assassin attacking Cat?

"Have a care, Your Grace," Ser Addam Marbrand warned the king. "Valyrian steel is perilously sharp."
"I remember." Joffrey brought Widow's Wail down in a savage two-handed slice, onto the book that Tyrion had given him. The heavy leather cover parted at a stroke. "Sharp! I told you, I am no stranger to Valyrian steel." It took him half a dozen further cuts to hack the thick tome apart, and the boy was breathless by the time he was done. Sansa could feel her husband struggling with his fury as Ser Osmund Kettleblack shouted, "I pray you never turn that wicked edge on me, sire."

Even Tyrion's memory alludes to Ned's execution for the reader's behalf, Ned was executed on the steps of Baelor's Sept:

I am no stranger to Valyrian steel, the boy had boasted. The septons were always going on about how the Father Above judges us all. If the Father would be so good as to topple over and crush Joff like a dung beetle, I might even believe it.

Was Mance even in Winterfell during Robert's visit in the TV show? Are we using the TV show as evidence of book canon now?

Edited by Mourning Star
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The only way to keep some fanfanfic™️* alive is to keep denying any and all evidence and claiming it’s weak and not definitive enough unless it is spelled out in block letters in blood by the author. Usually b/c many readers want to be the one to solve that one thing where everyone else has been misled or just plain wrong for 25+ years. It’s special snowflake syndrome and extremely unlikely to yield much of a payoff. 
If I had a beer for every time I’ve read comments that deny the author when he’s talking about his work I’d be in rehab right now. 
 

*fanfanfic = fantastical fan fiction

Edited by kissdbyfire
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25 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The only way to keep some fanfanfic™️* alive is to keep denying any and all evidence and claiming it’s weak and not definitive enough unless it is spelled out in block letters in blood by the author. Usually b/c many readers want to be the one to solve that one thing where everyone else has been misled or just plain wrong for 25+ years. It’s special snowflake syndrome and extremely unlikely to yield much of a payoff. 
If I had a beer for every time I’ve read comments that deny the author when he’s talking about his work I’d be in rehab right now. 
 

*fanfanfic = fantastical fan fiction

Show me the quote from the author saying it was Joff and obviously the debate would be over. Until then it's all fan fiction. I'm surely not the first to suggest Mance sent the catspaw.

As I've said, it's impossible to argue with privileged information, but nowhere in the canon does it say Joff did it.

Nor have I ever seen a quote from the author saying it. But please, do share...

If Ran wants this debate quashed then so be it, I'll stop, it's his forum, but I don't think asking for evidence or making an argument based on the text are out of line here.

Edited by Mourning Star
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29 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Show me the quote from the author saying it was Joff and obviously the debate would be over.

The quote I could post won’t satisfy you anymore on page 4 than it did in previous pages. 

29 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Until then it's all fan fiction.

No, it isn’t. The author said 20+ years ago that the mystery would be solved for readers in ASoS, and so it was. But some readers just won’t accept the answer because they believe they have better ones. In fact, Martin himself talks about it in the same report by Jeff. 

“The problem with all this speculating is that some of you are bound to guess the answers before I reveal 'em... and others may even come up with better answers than I do. Well, those are the risks one takes with such a project.”

So maybe if readers who don’t like Joff as the answer had had access to Martin before he published his solution, they could have talked him into changing his whole story or parts of it because these readers had, in their opinions, better ideas. Who knows? He might have even liked some of the ideas. Alas, it is too late for that irt the catspaw and the attempt on Bran’s life. 

29 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I'm surely not the first to suggest Mance sent the catspaw.

Not the first, not the 100th, not the last. As I said, who knows, maybe Martin would have liked the idea. But this particular ship has sailed, and this is Martin’s story to write, and ours to enjoy. Or not. 

29 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

As I've said, it's impossible to argue with privileged information, but nowhere in the canon does it say Joff did it.

From what I can see and have seen, Ran is not saying anything based on privileged information. Only the report we’ve all seen and from actually believing what the author said. 
As to the canon not saying Joff did… well, I consider what the author said & what we get in the book as more than enough to accept the answer w/o any mental gymnastics or suspension of disbelief. And I fully expect many more mysteries to be solved similarly; i.e., without clearly spelling out every detail. 

29 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Nor have I ever seen a quote from the author saying it. But please, do share...

Asked and answered. :dunno:

Edited by kissdbyfire
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Here's another thing George said:

Quote

Do we the readers, after having read aGoT and aCoK, have enough information to plausibly be able to reason out who was behind the assassination plot against Bran?

There's a couple of additional things to be revealed in SOS... but I think the answer could be worked out from the first two books alone, yes... though of course, =I've= known the truth all along, so in some ways it's hard for me to judge.

There is no way to guess Mance based on the first two books, and that's why discussions back then never actually mentioned Mance -- the theories were Littlefinger, Cersei, Robert, and (yes) Joffrey, with maybe a smattering of Varys ideas. Mance was a complete enigma and there was no reason to think he was in Winterfell prior to ASoS's revelation.

ETA: And before the source is questioned, Kay-Arne Hansen is also known as KAH, and was one of the first moderators of the forum. That's another mail from George that was forwarded to me with correct headers to be included in the SSM.

Edited by Ran
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3 hours ago, Ran said:

Here's another thing George said:

There is no way to guess Mance based on the first two books, and that's why discussions back then never actually mentioned Mance -- the theories were Littlefinger, Cersei, Robert, and (yes) Joffrey, with maybe a smattering of Varys ideas. Mance was a complete enigma and there was no reason to think he was in Winterfell prior to ASoS's revelation.

ETA: And before the source is questioned, Kay-Arne Hansen is also known as KAH, and was one of the first moderators of the forum. That's another mail from George that was forwarded to me with correct headers to be included in the SSM.

I honestly still just disagree that this resolves the issue. It's far from a clear answer.

"He was the fourth this year," Ned said grimly. "The poor man was half-mad. Something had put a fear in him so deep that my words could not reach him." He sighed. "Ben writes that the strength of the Night's Watch is down below a thousand. It's not only desertions. They are losing men on rangings as well."
"Is it the wildlings?" she asked.
"Who else?" Ned lifted Ice, looked down the cool steel length of it. "And it will only grow worse. The day may come when I will have no choice but to call the banners and ride north to deal with this King-beyond-the-Wall for good and all."
"Beyond the Wall?" The thought made Catelyn shudder.
Ned saw the dread on her face. "Mance Rayder is nothing for us to fear."

Ned talking about fear is a huge red flag. One can only be brave when one is afraid. Say what you will about Cat, she was brave with the catspaw.

There is reason to suspect Mance would have had a motive from early on.

"You're as stupid as you are ugly, Hali," said the tall woman. "The boy's worth nothing dead, but alive … gods be damned, think what Mance would give to have Benjen Stark's own blood to hostage!"
"Mance be damned," the big man cursed. "You want to go back there, Osha? More fool you. Think the white walkers will care if you have a hostage?" He turned back to Bran and slashed at the strap around his thigh. The leather parted with a sigh.
 
What we didn't know at the time, and learned in ASOS, was that Mance was in Winterfell and brought a bag of silver.
 
I can't argue with privileged information. But, if no claim to that is being made, then I'm willing to die on this hill. Mance makes more sense as being the one behind the catspaw at every level, from story telling, to motive, to means. There is even hard evidence in the bag of silver linking him to the crime. All that said, I really do appreciate the engagement here by Ran, and the work on this forum in general, it's given me much joy, even if it turns out I'm totally wrong about every tinfoil theory I believe in.
 
I look forward to the day we get another book...
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15 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Can I ask you to look at it the other way: what in anything in ASOS makes it look like GRRM is revealing either Mance or Cersei as the culprit? 

It's clear that he is pointing to Joffrey but he uses character povs not an omniscient narrator so how could he point to Joffrey except through other character povs?

On your first question:  As I pointed out in a recent post, there is evidence for both the Mance and Cersei theories in various chapters of ASOS.

On your second question:  We didn't need a character POV to tell us that the old black tomcat in the Red Keep is actually the former pet of Princess Rhaenys. And we didn't need a character POV to tell us that some members of House Frey ended up on the menu at Ramsay's wedding feast. Half the fun of reading these books is finding and solving these hidden mysteries, where you can't even look for the answer until you notice that there's a question.

The text may be"pointing to" Joffrey, but we know that the Martin sometimes makes use of unreliable witnesses that give us false leads.  The characters who suspect Joffrey are just guessing; they don't have any hard evidence. And I still have trouble believing that any 12-year old boy, even a prince, could arrange to have arson and murder committed in the home of the Warden of the North.

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7 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Future Bran hired the Catspaw to make sure he fell so he could get Greenseeing powers.

Hmmm, interesting, but the time line doesn't work. Bran had already fallen by the time the catspaw made his attempt.

On the other hand, if Future Bran can influence Present-day Catspaw, then the whole concept of "time line" goes out the window .... pardon the expression.  ;^)

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11 hours ago, Ran said:

another thing George said:

Quote

Do we the readers, after having read aGoT and aCoK, have enough information to plausibly be able to reason out who was behind the assassination plot against Bran?

There's a couple of additional things to be revealed in SOS... but I think the answer could be worked out from the first two books alone, yes... though of course, =I've= known the truth all along, so in some ways it's hard for me to judge.

There is no way to guess Mance based on the first two books

Well, that's interesting. It does look like that could be checkmate for the Mance theory. But I imagine the pro-Mance fans will do some rereading, to see if they can find more evidence for that theory in the first two books.

Doesn't this comment devalue evidence for Joffrey just as much as for Mance?  The text pointing to Joffrey is all in ASOS.

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2 hours ago, Aebram said:

Doesn't this comment devalue evidence for Joffrey just as much as for Mance?  The text pointing to Joffrey is all in ASOS.

Not when you consider Joff's and Sandor's remarks at Winterfell that Tyrion slaps Joffrey over.

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2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Not when you consider Joff's and Sandor's remarks at Winterfell that Tyrion slaps Joffrey over.

Joffrey was complaining about the howling of the direwolves (AGOT 9). His "send a dog to kill a dog" remark was a reference to killing a wolf, not Bran.

You may have confused this with "send a dog to kill a wolf," which is how Tyrion mis-remembered Joffrey's words later, during his drunken musings on the matter (ASOS 60).

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43 minutes ago, Aebram said:

Joffrey was complaining about the howling of the direwolves (AGOT 9). His "send a dog to kill a dog" remark was a reference to killing a wolf, not Bran.

You may have confused this with "send a dog to kill a wolf," which is how Tyrion mis-remembered Joffrey's words later, during his drunken musings on the matter (ASOS 60).

Or you can read between the lines: it's not as if the dog in question sent to kill is an actual dog from the kennels right?

Edited by sweetsunray
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8 hours ago, Aebram said:

On your first question:  As I pointed out in a recent post, there is evidence for both the Mance and Cersei theories in various chapters of ASOS.

On your second question:  We didn't need a character POV to tell us that the old black tomcat in the Red Keep is actually the former pet of Princess Rhaenys. And we didn't need a character POV to tell us that some members of House Frey ended up on the menu at Ramsay's wedding feast. Half the fun of reading these books is finding and solving these hidden mysteries, where you can't even look for the answer until you notice that there's a question.

The text may be"pointing to" Joffrey, but we know that the Martin sometimes makes use of unreliable witnesses that give us false leads.  The characters who suspect Joffrey are just guessing; they don't have any hard evidence. And I still have trouble believing that any 12-year old boy, even a prince, could arrange to have arson and murder committed in the home of the Warden of the North.

He didn't plan it, he just hired someone, that's pretty easy to do, no master plan required.  The arson was simply the assassin's idea to draw the guards away.  Joff is not a pleasant character, that's pretty clear.  What part of his conduct in AGOT, ACOK and ASOS makes you think he would baulk at ordering someone killed?

Unfortunately I feel you won't ever be satisfied because I think you just don't like what the author wrote.  You try very hard to find reasons to reject both what is presented in text as the solution and the response the author gave to several readers at the time who were asking about the mystery and telling them when he would resolve it.  For the vast majority of people this was a puzzle that was solved over 20 years ago and you have both in book and out of book confirmation of this.

We all come from different places in reading and assessing the text and a lot of people who are bemused by you flogging this dead horse read this story and had this mystery resolved over 20 years ago.  GRRM's point about how people would come up with ideas they liked more than what he wrote is bang on the money here and it seems some people just can't let go.  Please don't take this too critically but I feel you show the place you are coming from and your (un)conscious motivation here:

On 1/7/2023 at 1:48 AM, Aebram said:

Jacobs'  video is impressively thorough.  It covers, in great detail, all the ground that Mourning Star and I did ... in 2017. (*sigh*) It seems that all the good theories are taken ... 

I understand that ASOIAF is rich in detail and plot twists and mysteries and that people gain a great deal of enjoyment in theory-crafting and looking for hidden elements.  But the wish to find a killer theory, inspired perhaps by the example of a content creator, might skew your reading.  Everyone is partial to their own creations and theories on this forum are often defended with a parent's tenacity but this whole thing was tied up long ago.  It may be new and fresh for you and it must be annoying to have people tell you it's done and dusted when you are just beginning to explore it but please look at it the other way round: some of us really don't get why this is being unearthed after so long.  Mance was not fleshed out by the author until after he had closed this out.  It might look like you can project things on to Mance but this is projection not the author's intent.

I don't know if GRRM still answers readers' questions but I think the only way for you to get the comfort you want is to ask him directly rather than asking for someone to provide you with a "watertight" quote.  Then again I don't know how he would feel about being asked over 20 years on to confirm something he already has but in a specific form of words given to him by you so you couldn't dismiss his answer as evasive.

 

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On 1/24/2023 at 7:46 AM, the trees have eyes said:

I don't know if GRRM still answers readers' questions but I think the only way for you to get the comfort you want is to ask him directly rather than asking for someone to provide you with a "watertight" quote.

Many people have asked directly and no clear public answer has been given for what, 20 years? It seems like more fun to speculate, and I'd rather discuss the text anyway.

It is only in deference to privileged information that this mystery is considered solved.

Tyrion's theory is ripe with problems and references the whole way through:

The king looked near as splendid as his bride, in his doublet of dusky rose, beneath a cloak of deep crimson velvet blazoned with his stag and lion. The crown rested easily on his curls, gold on gold. I saved that bloody crown for him. Tyrion shifted his weight uncomfortably from one foot to the other. He could not stand still. Too much wine. He should have thought to relieve himself before they set out from the Red Keep. The sleepless night he'd spent with Shae was making itself felt too, but most of all he wanted to strangle his bloody royal nephew.

Tyrion is both drunk and self admittedly biased against Joff. Not to say that Joff isn't horrible but rather that this opinion clouds Tyrion's judgment in this specific case.

I am no stranger to Valyrian steel, the boy had boasted. The septons were always going on about how the Father Above judges us all. If the Father would be so good as to topple over and crush Joff like a dung beetle, I might even believe it.

Joff is not a stranger to Valyrian Steel, he ordered and witnessed Ned's execution on the steps of the Sept. This tells us nothing about the dagger or Joff.

He ought to have seen it long ago. Jaime would never send another man to do his killing, and Cersei was too cunning to use a knife that could be traced back to her, but Joff, arrogant vicious stupid little wretch that he was . . .

Why use a knife at all? Let alone a unique and identifiable one. Joff was sure to have been present, at the tournament in honor of his own name day, when Robert won the dagger from Littlefinger.

He remembered a cold morning when he'd climbed down the steep exterior steps from Winterfell's library to find Prince Joffrey jesting with the Hound about killing wolves. Send a dog to kill a wolf, he said. Even Joffrey was not so foolish as to command Sandor Clegane to slay a son of Eddard Stark, however; the Hound would have gone to Cersei. Instead the boy found his catspaw among the unsavory lot of freeriders, merchants, and camp followers who'd attached themselves to the king's party as they made their way north. Some poxy lackwit willing to risk his life for a prince's favor and a little coin. Tyrion wondered whose idea it had been to wait until Robert left Winterfell before opening Bran's throat. Joff's, most like. No doubt he thought it was the height of cunning.

We get a direct reference to the Library, and to the group Mance joined to gain entry to Winterfell and I suspect the Winterfell Library plays a larger role here than most give credit. More below.

Joff did not say, "send a dog to kill a dog." Nor did he mean killing Bran. Compare to the quote below.

If the theory is that it would be easy to find an assassin using the prince's favor and a little coin, why is an identifiable dagger used at all?

Tyrion waffles between Joff being smart and Joff being stupid.

The prince's own dagger had a jeweled pommel and inlaid goldwork on the blade, Tyrion seemed to recall. At least Joff had not been stupid enough to use that. Instead he went poking among his father's weapons. Robert Baratheon was a man of careless generosity, and would have given his son any dagger he wanted . . . but Tyrion guessed that the boy had just taken it. Robert had come to Winterfell with a long tail of knights and retainers, a huge wheelhouse, and a baggage train. No doubt some diligent servant had made certain that the king's weapons went with him, in case he should desire any of them.

Why would Joff go poking around his father's weapons? Again, why find a special dagger to use at all? And if he could have just taken it, couldn't someone else have?

All in all I made much better time than Robert, who was traveling with a ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his queen in comfort. A day south of Winterfell I came up on him and fell in with his company. Freeriders and hedge knights are always attaching themselves to royal processions, in hopes of finding service with the king, and my lute gained me easy acceptance.

Like Mance.

The why of it still eluded him. Simple cruelty, perhaps? His nephew had that in abundance. It was all Tyrion could do not to retch up all the wine he'd drunk, piss in his breeches, or both. He squirmed uncomfortably.

Even Drunk Tyrion can't fathom why Joff would do this except simple cruelty.

It was meant as mockery, but she'd cut right to the heart of it, Jaime saw at once. "Not Myrcella. Joffrey."
Cersei frowned. "Joffrey had no love for Robb Stark, but the younger boy was nothing to him. He was only a child himself."
"A child hungry for a pat on the head from that sot you let him believe was his father." He had an uncomfortable thought. "Tyrion almost died because of this bloody dagger. If he knew the whole thing was Joffrey's work, that might be why . . ."

Obviously, Tyrion did not kill Joff.

Cersei's assessment of Joff matches his own words, quoted below. He didn't care about Bran.

There is no conceivable way Joff could expect to get a pat on the head for this. If it was successful then who would know it was him? And this is the same boy who was hit by his father for using a dagger on a cat.

"Joffrey . . . I remember once, this kitchen cat . . . the cooks were wont to feed her scraps and fish heads. One told the boy that she had kittens in her belly, thinking he might want one. Joffrey opened up the poor thing with a dagger to see if it were true. When he found the kittens, he brought them to show to his father. Robert hit the boy so hard I thought he'd killed him.

Whoever sent the catspaw, must have done so after Bran fell, making it not a long planned plot (or part of a larger one), but they also used the King's own unique identifiable dagger, and so had to have goals larger than just Bran's death.

The reason to use a unique dagger is so it can be found.

The Lord of Winterfell is dead, and his heir has marched his strength south to fight the Lannisters. The wildlings may never again have such a chance as this. I knew Mance Rayder, Jon. He is an oathbreaker, yes . . . but he has eyes to see, and no man has ever dared to name him faintheart."

The dagger led directly to Ned's death (and Joff's not being a stranger to Valyrian Steel) and the war of the five kings.

I think Mance set the fire in the Winterfell Library after looking for information, and that information was likely his reason for being in Winterfell, then digging in the Frostfangs after his return North of the Wall.

When the direwolf howled again, Tyrion shut the heavy leather-bound cover on the book he was reading, a hundred-year-old discourse on the changing of the seasons by a long-dead maester. He covered a yawn with the back of his hand. His reading lamp was flickering, its oil all but gone, as dawn light leaked through the high windows. He had been at it all night, but that was nothing new. Tyrion Lannister was not much a one for sleeping.
His legs were stiff and sore as he eased down off the bench. He massaged some life back into them and limped heavily to the table where the septon was snoring softly, his head pillowed on an open book in front of him. Tyrion glanced at the title. A life of the Grand Maester Aethelmure, no wonder. "Chayle," he said softly. The young man jerked up, blinking, confused, the crystal of his order swinging wildly on its silver chain. "I'm off to break my fast. See that you return the books to the shelves. Be gentle with the Valyrian scrolls, the parchment is very dry. Ayrmidon's Engines of War is quite rare, and yours is the only complete copy I've ever seen." Chayle gaped at him, still half-asleep. Patiently, Tyrion repeated his instructions, then clapped the septon on the shoulder and left him to his tasks.
Outside, Tyrion swallowed a lungful of the cold morning air and began his laborious descent of the steep stone steps that corkscrewed around the exterior of the library tower. It was slow going; the steps were cut high and narrow, while his legs were short and twisted. The rising sun had not yet cleared the walls of Winterfell, but the men were already hard at it in the yard below. Sandor Clegane's rasping voice drifted up to him. "The boy is a long time dying. I wish he would be quicker about it."
Tyrion glanced down and saw the Hound standing with young Joffrey as squires swarmed around them. "At least he dies quietly," the prince replied. "It's the wolf that makes the noise. I could scarce sleep last night."
Clegane cast a long shadow across the hard-packed earth as his squire lowered the black helm over his head. "I could silence the creature, if it please you," he said through his open visor. His boy placed a longsword in his hand. He tested the weight of it, slicing at the cold morning air. Behind him, the yard rang to the clangor of steel on steel.
The notion seemed to delight the prince. "Send a dog to kill a dog!" he exclaimed. "Winterfell is so infested with wolves, the Starks would never miss one."
Tyrion hopped off the last step onto the yard. "I beg to differ, nephew," he said. "The Starks can count past six. Unlike some princes I might name."
Joffrey had the grace at least to blush.
"A voice from nowhere," Sandor said. He peered through his helm, looking this way and that. "Spirits of the air!"

Until proven otherwise, I think the kid who can't count, and assumes Bran is quietly dying, is a less likely suspect than the named in chapter one but unseen enemy secretly inside the walls.

Mance thinks he'll fight, the brave sweet stubborn man, like the white walkers were no more than rangers, but what does he know?

What does he know? I suspect things he learned from the Winterfell Library, and would even go so far as to suggest it was the original target of the expedition. 

"They're dogs and he's a wolf," said Jon. "They know he's not their kind." No more than I am yours. But he had his duty to be mindful of, the task Qhorin Halfhand had laid upon him as they shared that final fire—to play the part of turncloak, and find whatever it was that the wildlings had been seeking in the bleak cold wilderness of the Frostfangs. "Some power," Qhorin had named it to the Old Bear, but he had died before learning what it was, or whether Mance Rayder had found it with his digging.

Why was Mance Rayder digging? What led him there all of a sudden after his return from WInterfell?

Like many theories, if it never comes back up, then that itself is an answer. Other than a direct quote from the horse's mouth, which I clearly do not expect, there is no reason to think this would be revealed outside the text in advance of another book. Especially with Mance last seen back inside Winterfell.

So while we wait, we may as well enjoy our speculations!

Edited by Mourning Star
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