Who really hired the catspaw?

[Craving Peaches]

I am all for theories but I really feel like this is a case where what we are told happened is actually just what happened. I don't see enough of a reason to doubt Tyrion's take on the matter. And I think if we were meant to suspect that what Tyrion said wasn't true, more obvious hints would be in the text.

[kissdbyfire]

17 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

This is what I mean.

What Ran said. Sorry, but freedom of speech (within the confines of whatever rules apply) has to go both ways. You are free to present ideas and theories, and those who don’t agree and/or see flaws in them are free to say so. 

[Mourning Star]

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

"Forty odd," said Donal Noye. "The crippled and infirm, and some green boys still in training."

This quote clearly shows that the free folk have several crippled individuals living among them and it really doesn’t seem to be an issue. 

This quote you sited about cripples refers to men of the Nights Watch not wildlings.

There's no time. There are wildlings south of the Wall, coming up from Queenscrown to open the gate."
"How many?" Noye half-carried Jon out the door.
"A hundred and twenty, and well armed for wildlings. Bronze armor, some bits of steel. How many men are left here?"
"Forty odd," said Donal Noye. "The crippled and infirm, and some green boys still in training."
"If Marsh is gone, who did he name as castellan?"
The armorer laughed. "Ser Wynton, gods preserve him. Last knight in the castle and all. The thing is, Stout seems to have forgotten and no one's been rushing to remind him. I suppose I'm as much a commander as we have now. The meanest of the cripples."
That was for the good, at least. The one-armed armorer was hard headed, tough, and well seasoned in war. Ser Wynton Stout, on the other hand . . . well, he had been a good man once, everyone agreed, but he had been eighty years a ranger, and both strength and wits were gone. Once he'd fallen asleep at supper and almost drowned in a bowl of pea soup.

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And Val isn’t necessarily being merciful, she’s worried about the greyscale spreading. That’s why she wants monster far from Shireen.

She literally calls it a mercy... I would have given her the gift of mercy long ago.

I agree the Val quote is not a one to one comparison. Greyscale is not the same as being crippled. The intent of the quote was to show how it's possible for a seemingly "good" character to view killing a child as a mercy, in particular among the wildlings.

 

[Craving Peaches]

23 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

and I think the intention was to cause strife south of the Wall,

But surely killing Ned, or killing Robb who was first in line, would cause far more strife than killing Bran, given that everyone expected Bran to die anyway. Killing Robb would leave crippled, comatose Bran as the rightful heir, which would lead to all sorts of problems and create a much more chaotic situation for Mance to exploit, especially when Ned died.

26 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

or like what Val says about Shireen.

Val's belief about killing Shireen is based more on the belief that her greyscale is still infectious though, more to do with protecting the uninfected than being merciful.

19 minutes ago, Ran said:

That people are finding these outlandish theories ridiculous or nonsensical is something they're allowed to say. 

I read these threads and feel like I'm lacking in some inquisitive streak. I am perfectly happy to just take what the book tells me at face value unless hints are dropped in the text that I shouldn't. Am I being too complacent?

[kissdbyfire]

@Mourning Star, my bad about the quote. And yes, she calls it a mercy but her main concern is the possibility that Shireen’s greyscale may spread.

[kissdbyfire]

I knew it was there, I just found the wrong one at first. 
Same point about there being cripples among the free folk, @Mourning Star.

ADwD, Jon V

“You have to pick,” Jon Snow repeated. “All of you. No one is asking you to take our vows, and I do not care what gods you worship. My own gods are the old gods, the gods of the North, but you can keep the red god, or the Seven, or any other god who hears your prayers. It’s spears we need. Bows. Eyes along the Wall.

  “I will take any boy above the age of twelve who knows how to hold a spear or string a bow. I will take your old men, your wounded, and your cripples, even those who can no longer fight. There are other tasks they may be able to perform. Fletching arrows, milking goats, gathering firewood, mucking out our stables … the work is endless. And yes, I will take your women too. I have no need of blushing maidens looking to be protected, but I will take as many spearwives as will come.”

 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

16 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I am all for theories but I really feel like this is a case where what we are told happened is actually just what happened. I don't see enough of a reason to doubt Tyrion's take on the matter. And I think if we were meant to suspect that what Tyrion said wasn't true, more obvious hints would be in the text.

As far as I know, GRRM hasn't really commented on it often since ASOS was released either.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

43 minutes ago, Ran said:

Forget it, Craving. It's Theorytown.

Love the reference. Now I'm going to have to flip through all of my streaming services to see if any of them have Chinatown. Haven't watched that in decades.

[Mourning Star]

23 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

@Mourning Star, my bad about the quote.

All good, it happens.

16 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I knew it was there, I just found the wrong one at first. 
Same point about there being cripples among the free folk, @Mourning Star.

ADwD, Jon V

“You have to pick,” Jon Snow repeated. “All of you. No one is asking you to take our vows, and I do not care what gods you worship. My own gods are the old gods, the gods of the North, but you can keep the red god, or the Seven, or any other god who hears your prayers. It’s spears we need. Bows. Eyes along the Wall.

  “I will take any boy above the age of twelve who knows how to hold a spear or string a bow. I will take your old men, your wounded, and your cripples, even those who can no longer fight. There are other tasks they may be able to perform. Fletching arrows, milking goats, gathering firewood, mucking out our stables … the work is endless. And yes, I will take your women too. I have no need of blushing maidens looking to be protected, but I will take as many spearwives as will come.”

Jon being willing to take the wildling cripples after a battle doesn't say much about the wildlings themselves.

But I'm not claiming that there has never been a wildling cripple.

I was making a comparison to the logic behind calling it a mercy to kill a child who is "already dead".

23 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And yes, she calls it a mercy but her main concern is the possibility that Shireen’s greyscale may spread.

As you said, the cases are not exactly the same.

But, I do think there are similarities... both in meaning and language used.

He must have heard her. "It's a mercy," he said. "He's dead already."

You cannot leave them in that same tower as the dead girl.

31 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

What Ran said. Sorry, but freedom of speech (within the confines of whatever rules apply) has to go both ways. You are free to present ideas and theories, and those who don’t agree and/or see flaws in them are free to say so. 

I have no problem with dissenting opinions, especially those that present a good case.

But, I do not think suppressing conversation is the same as banning it outright.

Free speech is a protection from the government and has nothing to do with private forums such as this.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Mourning Star

[Ran]

16 minutes ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

Love the reference. Now I'm going to have to flip through all of my streaming services to see if any of them have Chinatown. Haven't watched that in decades.

It holds up. May I recommend Just Watch? It aggregates all the films available to streaming services in particular countries/regions. Like, just discovered it's available for free here on Sweden's SVT Play service for two more days. Hmm...

 

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, Mourning Star said:

All good, it happens.

1 minute ago, Mourning Star said:

Jon being willing to take the wildling cripples after a battle doesn't say much about the wildlings themselves.

But I'm not claiming that there has never been a wildling cripple.

Yeah. My point was that they don’t really seem to have a problem w/ that. But I get the comparison you make (below, I broke your reply n the wrong spot). I still think it’s very different having concern b/c of a a potentially deadly infectious disease and a physical disability. But I agree about Val and probably many others if not the vast majority being at least capable of killing a child. Where we differ, I think, is that I don’t think killing a child b/c of a disability is something most would be willing to do. Maybe the nasty ones, like Varamyr, the Weeper, etc. Whereas a deadly infectious disease is a completely different story. 

1 minute ago, Mourning Star said:

I was making a comparison to the logic behind calling it a mercy to kill a child who is "already dead".

As you said, the cases are not exactly the same.

But, I do think there are similarities... both in meaning and language used.

He must have heard her. "It's a mercy," he said. "He's dead already."

You cannot leave them in that same tower as the dead girl.

 

 

1 minute ago, Mourning Star said:

I have no problem with dissenting opinions, especially those that present a good case.

But, I do not think suppressing conversation is the same as banning it outright.

Free speech is a protection from the government and has nothing to do with private forums such as this.

Bold: fair enough, it wasn’t a good argument. But the point behind it remains… just as you can come up & present ideas and theories, others can disagree, poke holes, etc. I really don’t see that as suppression. And even sarcasm, I use it a lot, love me some sarcasm. That may mean I’m an arsehole, but not that I’m suppressing anyone’s speech/ideas. 

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

5 minutes ago, Ran said:

It holds up. May I recommend Just Watch? It aggregates all the films available to streaming services in particular countries/regions. Like, just discovered it's available for free here on Sweden's SVT Play service for two more days. Hmm...

 

Hey, that just watch is awesome. Thanks!!

[Mourning Star]

56 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But I agree about Val and probably many others if not the vast majority being at least capable of killing a child. Where we differ, I think, is that I don’t think killing a child b/c of a disability is something most would be willing to do. Maybe the nasty ones, like Varamyr, the Weeper, etc. Whereas a deadly infectious disease is a completely different story. 

Again, I don’t think this line of thinking is in isolation. Bran is also a Stark, a bloodline that has been the enemy of the freefolk for thousands of years. More importantly, I’m suggesting the entire assassination attempt was a means to an end, it caused dissension south of the wall, giving the freefolk the best chance to invade possibly since the Wall was first raised. And it covered for the destruction of the library.

I also think that one being willing to kill a child as a means to an end is a litmus test for morality in the series, and a recurring theme. We see many characters whom I would not describe as nasty, who would be willing to, for the right cause.

56 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

just as you can come up & present ideas and theories, others can disagree, poke holes, etc. I really don’t see that as suppression. And even sarcasm, I use it a lot, love me some sarcasm. That may mean I’m an arsehole, but not that I’m suppressing anyone’s speech/ideas.

I not only do not object to disagreement, I welcome it. For instance you are looking for meaningful quotes to refute my case, and I applaud the effort, it’s not only helpful in refining an understanding of the literature, it’s even more importantly entertaining! As for phrasing, I’m certainly closer to an arsehole than a saint myself.

I think the case for Mance having sent the catspaw in the text is significantly stronger than that for Joff and stands up to scrutiny.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Mourning Star

[Aebram]

14 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

And both Robert and Cersei said it would be a mercy if Bran died

Actually, I don't think that's correct.   Cersei said that Robert said it (ASOS 72), but we have only her word about that. 

[Mourning Star]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

But surely killing Ned, or killing Robb who was first in line, would cause far more strife than killing Bran, given that everyone expected Bran to die anyway. Killing Robb would leave crippled, comatose Bran as the rightful heir, which would lead to all sorts of problems and create a much more chaotic situation for Mance to exploit, especially when Ned died.

I think killing Ned or Robb is harder than a cripple in a coma. Don't you think Mance would kill them given the opportunity? It seems to me that they would likely kill him.

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

Val's belief about killing Shireen is based more on the belief that her greyscale is still infectious though, more to do with protecting the uninfected than being merciful.

Again, my point was that it's a comparison to being willing to kill a child who is "already dead" as a "mercy".

But, to add to this, don't you think that a Stark child growing up is a deadly threat to Mance (a deserter) and the freefolk trying to invade the realm in the future? Because that would seem comparable to the deadly threat of a dormant disease in a child as well. Not the same, not one to one, but comparable.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Mourning Star

[Jekse]

5 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

10 hours ago, Jekse said:

 

He would still care to appease Cersei though.

What makes you think this? 

[kissdbyfire]

17 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

But, to add to this, don't you think that a Stark child growing up is a deadly threat to Mance (a deserter) and the freefolk trying to invade the realm in the future? Because that would seem comparable to the deadly threat of a dormant disease in a child as well. Not the same, not one to one, but comparable.

They’d be willing to kill Bran and yet…

ADwD, Theon I

Even the godswood was turning white. A film of ice had formed upon the pool beneath the heart tree, and the face carved into its pale trunk had grown a mustache of little icicles. At this hour they could not hope to have the old gods to themselves. Rowan pulled Theon away from the northmen praying before the tree, to a secluded spot back by the barracks wall, beside a pool of warm mud that stank of rotten eggs. Even the mud was icing up about the edges, Theon saw. "Winter is coming …"

Rowan gave him a hard look. "You have no right to mouth Lord Eddard's words. Not you. Not ever. After what you did—"

 

[Nevets]

@Mourning Star At what point are you suggesting Mance had in mind killing someone?  Unless he originally intended to hire an assassin, I doubt he would be carrying enough silver to stretch that far.  He has travel expenses, including a horse, which he told Jon he bought (I have no reason to doubt that).  And if he originally planned to kill someone, what's taking so long?  They were getting ready to leave when Bran fell.

Come to think of it, once it's announced that Ned is going to Kings Landing, why cause strife anyway.  If I'm Mance, I want Ned far away for as long as possible.  I'd much rather go up against a teenager with no experience than someone like Ned.

I also have no idea how he would get the dagger.  Unknown nobodies can't wander around Royal quarters easily.  My guess is the knife may have been partial payment, as well as making the job easier.  Humans can be difficult to kill, as many an unsuccessful murderer has discovered to his cost.

Why is he still there?  He's spent considerable effort on uniting the tribes.  He stays gone too long, things could easily fall apart.

I don't like Joffrey as the solution.  It's weak and not nearly as convincing as I would like.  Unfortunately, every other solution I've come across is even worse.

[Mourning Star]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

They’d be willing to kill Bran and yet…

ADwD, Theon I

Even the godswood was turning white. A film of ice had formed upon the pool beneath the heart tree, and the face carved into its pale trunk had grown a mustache of little icicles. At this hour they could not hope to have the old gods to themselves. Rowan pulled Theon away from the northmen praying before the tree, to a secluded spot back by the barracks wall, beside a pool of warm mud that stank of rotten eggs. Even the mud was icing up about the edges, Theon saw. "Winter is coming …"

Rowan gave him a hard look. "You have no right to mouth Lord Eddard's words. Not you. Not ever. After what you did—"

 

I'm sorry, I do not understand what you are trying to say here.

Why would a freefolk admonish Theon?

This seems to me a lot like questioning why Ned would look so poorly on Jaime for killing Aerys.

It was because of being a turncloak, and in Theon's case a kinslayer (but we and him know not really), not for killing an enemy. It's due to a sense of honor.

"You killed a boy as well."
"That was not us. I told you."
"Words are wind." They are no better than me. We're just the same. "You killed the others, why not him? Yellow Dick—"
"—stank as bad as you. A pig of a man."
"And Little Walder was a piglet. Killing him brought the Freys and Manderlys to dagger points, that was cunning, you—"
"Not us." Rowan grabbed him by the throat and shoved him back against the barracks wall, her face an inch from his. "Say it again and I will rip your lying tongue out, kinslayer."
He smiled through his broken teeth. "You won't. You need my tongue to get you past the guards. You need my lies."
Rowan spat in his face. Then she let him go and wiped her gloved hands on her legs, as if just touching him had soiled her.
Theon knew he should not goad her. In her own way, this one was as dangerous as Skinner or Damon Dance-for-Me. But he was cold and tired, his head was pounding, he had not slept in days. "I have done terrible things … betrayed my own, turned my cloak, ordered the death of men who trusted me … but I am no kinslayer."
"Stark's boys were never brothers to you, aye. We know."
That was true, but it was not what Theon had meant. They were not my blood, but even so, I never harmed them. The two we killed were just some miller's sons. Theon did not want to think about their mother. He had known the miller's wife for years, had even bedded her. Big heavy breasts with wide dark nipples, a sweet mouth, a merry laugh. Joys that I will never taste again.
But there was no use telling Rowan any of that. She would never believe his denials, any more than he believed hers. "There is blood on my hands, but not the blood of brothers," he said wearily. "And I've been punished."
"Not enough." Rowan turned her back on him.
Foolish woman. He might well be a broken thing, but Theon still wore a dagger. It would have been a simple thing to slide it out and drive it down between her shoulder blades. That much he was still capable of, missing teeth and broken teeth and all. It might even be a kindness—a quicker, cleaner end than the one she and her sisters would face when Ramsay caught them.
Reek might have done it. Would have done it, in hopes it might please Lord Ramsay. These whores meant to steal Ramsay's bride; Reek could not allow that. But the old gods had known him, had called him Theon. Ironborn, I was ironborn, Balon Greyjoy's son and rightful heir to Pyke. The stumps of his fingers itched and twitched, but he kept his dagger in its sheath.
When Squirrel returned, the other four were with her: gaunt grey-haired Myrtle, Willow Witch-Eye with her long black braid, Frenya of the thick waist and enormous breasts, Holly with her knife. Clad as serving girls in layers of drab grey roughspun, they wore brown woolen cloaks lined with white rabbit fur. No swords, Theon saw. No axes, no hammers, no weapons but knives. Holly's cloak was fastened with a silver clasp, and Frenya had a girdle of hempen rope wound about her middle from her hips to breasts. It made her look even more massive than she was.
Myrtle had servant's garb for Rowan. "The yards are crawling with fools," she warned them. "They mean to ride out."
"Kneelers," said Willow, with a snort of contempt. "Their lordly lord spoke, they must obey."
"They're going to die," chirped Holly, happily.
"Them and us," said Theon. "Even if we do get past the guards, how do you mean to get Lady Arya out?"
Holly smiled. "Six women go in, six come out. Who looks at serving girls? We'll dress the Stark girl up as Squirrel."
Squirrel answered for herself. "Out a window, and straight down to the godswood. I was twelve the first time my brother took me raiding south o' your Wall. That's where I got my name. My brother said I looked like a squirrel running up a tree. I've done that Wall six times since, over and back again. I think I can climb down some stone tower."
"Happy, turncloak?" Rowan asked. "Let's be about it."

We can see both their contempt for Theon, and the "kneelers" on display. 

Edit: Once again I would point to this quote from Game of Thrones:

In truth, the man was an oathbreaker, a deserter from the Night's Watch. No man is more dangerous. The deserter knows his life is forfeit if he is taken, so he will not flinch from any crime, no matter how vile.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Mourning Star

[Mourning Star]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

@Mourning Star At what point are you suggesting Mance had in mind killing someone?

After Bran fell, since it makes no sense for it to have been planned before that.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Unless he originally intended to hire an assassin, I doubt he would be carrying enough silver to stretch that far.  He has travel expenses, including a horse, which he told Jon he bought (I have no reason to doubt that).  And if he originally planned to kill someone, what's taking so long?  They were getting ready to leave when Bran fell.

They were out hunting when Bran fell.

Although not Tyrion, who also wasn't sleeping, but spending his nights in the Winterfell Library, which I'm suggesting was the original target. And a possible reason for Mance to wait until they had gone.

When the direwolf howled again, Tyrion shut the heavy leather-bound cover on the book he was reading, a hundred-year-old discourse on the changing of the seasons by a long-dead maester. He covered a yawn with the back of his hand. His reading lamp was flickering, its oil all but gone, as dawn light leaked through the high windows. He had been at it all night, but that was nothing new. Tyrion Lannister was not much a one for sleeping.

I would suggest that Mance did not come alone. In fact I'm not aware of any other example of a wildling scaling the Wall alone.

We get a first hand account from Jon of wildlings climbing the Wall, they used ropes to tie themselves together as a precaution against one falling.

The Others take them all, thought Jon, as he watched them scramble up the steep slope of the ridge and vanish beneath the trees. It would not be the first time wildlings had scaled the Wall, not even the hundred and first. The patrols stumbled on climbers two or three times a year, and rangers sometimes came on the broken corpses of those who had fallen. Along the east coast the raiders most often built boats to slip across the Bay of Seals. In the west they would descend into the black depths of the Gorge to make their way around the Shadow Tower. But in between the only way to defeat the Wall was to go over it, and many a raider had. Fewer come back, though, he thought with a certain grim pride. Climbers must of necessity leave their mounts behind, and many younger, greener raiders began by taking the first horses they found. Then a hue and cry would go up, ravens would fly, and as often as not the Night's Watch would hunt them down and hang them before they could get back with their plunder and stolen women. Jarl would not make that mistake, Jon knew, but he wondered about Styr. The Magnar is a ruler, not a raider. He may not know how the game is played.
"There they are," Ygritte said, and Jon glanced up to see the first climber emerge above the treetops. It was Jarl. He had found a sentinel tree that leaned against the Wall, and led his men up the trunk to get a quicker start. The wood should never have been allowed to creep so close. They're three hundred feet up, and they haven't touched the ice itself yet.
He watched the wildling move carefully from wood to Wall, hacking out a handhold with short sharp blows of his ice axe, then swinging over. The rope around his waist tied him to the second man in line, still edging up the tree. Step by slow step, Jarl moved higher, kicking out toeholds with his spiked boots when there were no natural ones to be found. When he was ten feet above the sentinel, he stopped upon a narrow icy ledge, slung his axe from his belt, took out his hammer, and drove an iron stake into a cleft. The second man moved onto the Wall behind him while the third was scrambling to the top of the tree.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Come to think of it, once it's announced that Ned is going to Kings Landing, why cause strife anyway.  If I'm Mance, I want Ned far away for as long as possible.  I'd much rather go up against a teenager with no experience than someone like Ned.

What Mance needs is a war south of the Wall, not just Ned in King's Landing where he could come back to Winterfell if needed. In fact, Ned did intend to return to Winterfell, until Cat took Tyrion captive because of the assassination attempt on Bran, sparking Jaimie's attack, and Ned's attempt at his version of mercy.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I also have no idea how he would get the dagger.  Unknown nobodies can't wander around Royal quarters easily.  My guess is the knife may have been partial payment, as well as making the job easier.  Humans can be difficult to kill, as many an unsuccessful murderer has discovered to his cost.

As Tyrion suggests, the dagger in question was likely in the baggage train, which Mance fell in with before arriving in Winterfell. And as Tyrion suggests Joff probably just took it, I'm suggesting Mance probably just took it.

To be fair, nothing about Mance's secret visit was easy or without risk.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Why is he still there?  He's spent considerable effort on uniting the tribes.  He stays gone too long, things could easily fall apart.

Mance gathers the Wildlings in the Frostfangs after his return from Winterfell.

I think it's also worth pointing out that Mance says he met Dalla on his return from Winterfell, and her sister Val shares the same eye and hair color as that of the assassin, both with bony faces.

Mance took her by the hand and pulled her close. "My lady is blameless. I met her on my return from your father's castle.

Val looked at him with pale grey eyes. "He always climbed too fast." She was as fair as he'd remembered, slender, full-breasted, graceful even at rest, with high sharp cheekbones and a thick braid of honey-colored hair that fell to her waist.

He was a small, dirty man in filthy brown clothing, and he stank of horses. Catelyn knew all the men who worked in their stables, and he was none of them. He was gaunt, with limp blond hair and pale eyes deep-sunk in a bony face, and there was a dagger in his hand.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I don't like Joffrey as the solution.  It's weak and not nearly as convincing as I would like.  Unfortunately, every other solution I've come across is even worse.

Fair enough.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Mourning Star