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Who really hired the catspaw?


Aebram
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8 hours ago, Aebram said:

Cersei said that Robert said it (ASOS 72), but we have only her word about that. 

I don't see any reason for her to lie about that, and based on what Robert values he probably would see being crippled as a fate worse than death.

7 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

But, to add to this, don't you think that a Stark child growing up is a deadly threat to Mance (a deserter) and the freefolk trying to invade the realm in the future?

Yes, but Bran would be the least threatening child given that he can't walk, killing Robb would make more sense if Mance was going for something like this, and I still don't see how Mance had enough money, if he did have money, why he didn't hire someone better, and it still feels out of character for Mance to do something like this because I would not rank the Stark children high on the list of 'threats' Mance has to deal with. His main concern would be getting the Wildlings to cross the Wall, in which case Lord Commander Mormont, Ned Stark, the Umbers, Benjen etc. are all much more of an obstacle than Bran. The threat of Bran 'growing up' is much more remote than the issue these people cause. 

7 hours ago, Jekse said:

What makes you think this? 

Because Joffrey does care about his parents opinions, even if it doesn't seem obvious. The quote I posted earlier shows he took on board whatever Robert said, and he also listens to Cersei as shown here:

Quote

"Fear is better than love, Mother says." Joffrey pointed at Sansa. "She fears me."

And there is an alternative reason that rather than seeking parental approval, he incorrectly thought it was the right thing to do because of what both his parents said.

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6 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I don't see any reason for her to lie about that, and based on what Robert values he probably would see being crippled as a fate worse than death.

She's a pathological liar. The moment someone does something foolish on her prompting, she blames or projects onto others. She makes stuff up, all to protect her ego. Jaime questions not only her "golden child" but her too. Her default reply is "Robert's fault, I had nothing to do with it." Except we actually witnessed her saying the same thing in front of Myrcella and Tommen. She wasn't drunk and at a breakfast table.

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4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

"Robert's fault, I had nothing to do with it." Except we actually witnessed her saying the same thing in front of Myrcella and Tommen. She wasn't drunk and at a breakfast table.

I think it's likely they both said it. We see Cersei say it, but I don't see why Robert wouldn't think the same, when you consider what he values in life. And the opinion isn't an uncommon one, if I remember correctly multiple people look at Bran with pity during the harvest feast. So I don't see why Cersei saying it means that Robert didn't say it.

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25 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think it's likely they both said it. We see Cersei say it, but I don't see why Robert wouldn't think the same, when you consider what he values in life. And the opinion isn't an uncommon one, if I remember correctly multiple people look at Bran with pity during the harvest feast. So I don't see why Cersei saying it means that Robert didn't say it.

I don't see Robert saying that after the news that Bran might live. I don't have a high opinion of Robert, but what she claims he said at this point of the WF timeline makes little to no sense to me. They already decided to leave, no more delays and good news for Ned on top. Nor is Robert unhappy for Ned when he learns Bran woke up. I don't think Robert personally cared about Bran's state enough to blurt out it would be better to kill Bran. Robert's alleged words are exactly how Cersei would say it though.

I'm more inclined to believe this scenario:

  • Joffrey complains about Tyrion slapping him over conspiring to kill a dog with a dog
  • Cersei is upset about Tyrion slapping Joffrey and agreeing with Joffrey there was nothing wrong about saying that, and that in fact she agrees it would be a mercy (suddenly seeing an opportunity in her son contemplating acquiring someone to do it). "I said so myself this morning at breakfast."
  • Then she draws in a drunken Robert with "don't you agree", and he was likely too drunk to even know what she was aking after and just said "yes".

ETA: And we should also take into account to whom Cersei is making this claim - Jaime - as well as the context. Jaime believes the worst of Robert anyhow. What is curious is how suddenly she's willing to throw Joffrey under the bus so to speak. She was in high arms about the claim of the cat killing (dismissed it callously) and how Robert (deceased) was bad for trashing Joffrey over it. Suddenly Jaime questions her involvement and how Joffrey may have been behind the assassination, and with both Joffrey and Robert deceased she's pointing fingers at both. I'm pretty sure, it's a distorted version of the actual convo. Robert trashed Joffrey over the killing of a cat, but said what Cersei claimed he said? Not buying that.

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On 1/25/2023 at 1:44 PM, Jekse said:

The last time Joffrey tried to impress his dad by killing something (the kitten) he was beaten, so he would not care to appease Robert. Supplying a cat's paw with a dagger is asanine, the dude got sent to get deal with a crippled child, his hands would have served well enough. Also Tyrion is drunk when he deduces this, and our POV characters rarely figure out a mystery correctly, they are almost always wrong. 

Don't forget Jaime comes to the same conclusion independently.  It's to reinforce Tyrion's realisation.

A Storm of Swords - Jaime IX

Robert? Jaime had guarded the king long enough to know that Robert Baratheon said things in his cups that he would have denied angrily the next day. "Were you alone when Robert said this?"
"You don't think he said it to Ned Stark, I hope? Of course we were alone. Us and the children." Cersei removed her hairnet and draped it over a bedpost, then shook out her golden curls.  "Perhaps Myrcella sent this man with the dagger, do you think so?"
It was meant as mockery, but she'd cut right to the heart of it, Jaime saw at once. "Not Myrcella. Joffrey."

If the assassin left no dagger there would be no clue to follow or for LF to lie to Cat about setting up the whole catnapping.  It's the author who intends the dagger to be found as he intends the assassination to fail to set the storyline of AGOT in motion.

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9 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Yes, but Bran would be the least threatening child given that he can't walk, killing Robb would make more sense if Mance was going for something like this, and I still don't see how Mance had enough money, if he did have money, why he didn't hire someone better, and it still feels out of character for Mance to do something like this because I would not rank the Stark children high on the list of 'threats' Mance has to deal with. His main concern would be getting the Wildlings to cross the Wall, in which case Lord Commander Mormont, Ned Stark, the Umbers, Benjen etc. are all much more of an obstacle than Bran. The threat of Bran 'growing up' is much more remote than the issue these people cause.

We don't know exactly how much silver was in Mance's bag when he went over the Wall.

"It's good to know my son's life was not sold cheaply," Catelyn said bitterly.

For some reason I think the suggestion that Mance was too poor is hysterical, he commands an army of thousands but can't afford one killer?

I was not ranking threats to Mance or anyone else, nor suggesting hypothetical assassination targets. I was comparing sections of text that I think are similar in both meaning and language used. I wouldn't rank Shireen high among threats to anyone either.

18 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Again, my point was that it's a comparison to being willing to kill a child who is "already dead" as a "mercy".

This was in regards to Mance's willingness to target Bran, a child, not the choice of target.

Suggest whatever hypotheticals you want, the attempt on Bran demonstrably worked out in Mance's favor.

The Lord of Winterfell is dead, and his heir has marched his strength south to fight the Lannisters. The wildlings may never again have such a chance as this. I knew Mance Rayder, Jon. He is an oathbreaker, yes . . . but he has eyes to see, and no man has ever dared to name him faintheart.

3 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Don't forget Jaime comes to the same conclusion independently.

He does not come to the conclusion independently. He asks Cersei if she did it first. He's under the false assumption that Tyrion killed Joff, assumes this was the motive, and uses that as his confirmation.

I'm not ashamed of loving you, only of the things I've done to hide it. That boy at Winterfell . . ."
"Did I tell you to throw him out the window? If you'd gone hunting as I begged you, nothing would have happened. But no, you had to have me, you could not wait until we returned to the city."
"I'd waited long enough. I hated watching Robert stumble to your bed every night, always wondering if maybe this night he'd decide to claim his rights as husband." Jaime suddenly remembered something else that troubled him about Winterfell. "At Riverrun, Catelyn Stark seemed convinced I'd sent some footpad to slit her son's throat. That I'd given him a dagger."
"That," she said scornfully. "Tyrion asked me about that."
"There was a dagger. The scars on Lady Catelyn's hands were real enough, she showed them to me. Did you . . . ?"
"Oh, don't be absurd." Cersei closed the window. "Yes, I hoped the boy would die. So did you. Even Robert thought that would have been for the best. 'We kill our horses when they break a leg, and our dogs when they go blind, but we are too weak to give the same mercy to crippled children,' he told me. He was blind himself at the time, from drink."
Robert? Jaime had guarded the king long enough to know that Robert Baratheon said things in his cups that he would have denied angrily the next day. "Were you alone when Robert said this?"
"You don't think he said it to Ned Stark, I hope? Of course we were alone. Us and the children." Cersei removed her hairnet and draped it over a bedpost, then shook out her golden curls. "Perhaps Myrcella sent this man with the dagger, do you think so?"
It was meant as mockery, but she'd cut right to the heart of it, Jaime saw at once. "Not Myrcella. Joffrey."
Cersei frowned. "Joffrey had no love for Robb Stark, but the younger boy was nothing to him. He was only a child himself."
"A child hungry for a pat on the head from that sot you let him believe was his father." He had an uncomfortable thought. "Tyrion almost died because of this bloody dagger. If he knew the whole thing was Joffrey's work, that might be why . . ."

And again, Cersei says that Bran was nothing to Joff, which is also what Joff said. 

"At least he dies quietly," the prince replied. "It's the wolf that makes the noise. I could scarce sleep last night."

-

"The Stark boy is nothing to me," Joffrey said. 

3 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

If the assassin left no dagger there would be no clue to follow or for LF to lie to Cat about setting up the whole catnapping.  It's the author who intends the dagger to be found as he intends the assassination to fail to set the storyline of AGOT in motion.

I just don't find the argument, that the crucial artifact the plot revolves around was simply a poorly conceived plot device, to be a convincing argument. 

"All we have is conjecture. This is the queen's beloved brother we mean to accuse. She will not take it kindly. We must have proof, or forever keep silent."

Edited by Mourning Star
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11 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

He does not come to the conclusion independently.

Jaime comes to the conclusion that Joffrey hired the catspaw.  Tyrion comes to this conclusion too.  They reach these conclusions independent of each other, i.e. without conferring.

I thought my meaning was clear.  Hopefully this helps.

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9 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

She's a pathological liar. The moment someone does something foolish on her prompting, she blames or projects onto others. She makes stuff up, all to protect her ego. Jaime questions not only her "golden child" but her too. Her default reply is "Robert's fault, I had nothing to do with it." Except we actually witnessed her saying the same thing in front of Myrcella and Tommen. She wasn't drunk and at a breakfast table.

I'm inclined to agree with you, but obviously we can't actually know what Robert said off page.

I would point out that, as you said, Cersei does essentially say this, but it's worth noting that Joff was not present at that breakfast, he was in the yard and Tyrion sent him to give his condolences to the Starks.

Also, on Robert's attitude at the time:

"Breaking fast with the queen."
"Ah," Tyrion said. He gave Sandor Clegane a perfunctory nod and walked away as briskly as his stunted legs would carry him, whistling. He pitied the first knight to try the Hound today. The man did have a temper.
A cold, cheerless meal had been laid out in the morning room of the Guest House. Jaime sat at table with Cersei and the children, talking in low, hushed voices.
"Is Robert still abed?" Tyrion asked as he seated himself, uninvited, at the table.
His sister peered at him with the same expression of faint distaste she had worn since the day he was born. "The king has not slept at all," she told him. "He is with Lord Eddard. He has taken their sorrow deeply to heart."
"He has a large heart, our Robert," Jaime said with a lazy smile. There was very little that Jaime took seriously. Tyrion knew that about his brother, and forgave it. During all the terrible long years of his childhood, only Jaime had ever shown him the smallest measure of affection or respect, and for that Tyrion was willing to forgive him most anything.

 

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41 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

he commands an army of thousands but can't afford one killer

The loyalty of the Wildlings was not based on wealth though.

42 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Suggest whatever hypotheticals you want, the attempt on Bran demonstrably worked out in Mance's favor.

But an attempt on Robb would have worked out more in his favour. Because it leaves Bran as heir.

43 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I wouldn't rank Shireen high among threats to anyone either.

The Wildlings would. And looking at it from Mance's POV I wouldn't rank Bran highly as a threat.

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27 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I'm inclined to agree with you, but obviously we can't actually know what Robert said off page.

I would point out that, as you said, Cersei does essentially say this, but it's worth noting that Joff was not present at that breakfast, he was in the yard and Tyrion sent him to give his condolences to the Starks.

Also, on Robert's attitude at the time:

"Breaking fast with the queen."
"Ah," Tyrion said. He gave Sandor Clegane a perfunctory nod and walked away as briskly as his stunted legs would carry him, whistling. He pitied the first knight to try the Hound today. The man did have a temper.
A cold, cheerless meal had been laid out in the morning room of the Guest House. Jaime sat at table with Cersei and the children, talking in low, hushed voices.
"Is Robert still abed?" Tyrion asked as he seated himself, uninvited, at the table.
His sister peered at him with the same expression of faint distaste she had worn since the day he was born. "The king has not slept at all," she told him. "He is with Lord Eddard. He has taken their sorrow deeply to heart."
"He has a large heart, our Robert," Jaime said with a lazy smile. There was very little that Jaime took seriously. Tyrion knew that about his brother, and forgave it. During all the terrible long years of his childhood, only Jaime had ever shown him the smallest measure of affection or respect, and for that Tyrion was willing to forgive him most anything.

 

I didn't claim Joff was at the breakfast, nor wanted to imply that. But we have evidence she said it at least once with Tommen and Myrcella present. This proves she would have no discretion in repeating it with Joffrey present, especially when he will tattle tell on Tyrion for slapping him (as he surely would). Cersei would have ranted and railed against Tyrion and support Joff.

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13 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

The Wildlings would. And looking at it from Mance's POV I wouldn't rank Bran highly as a threat.

Exactly. As I’ve said a number of times already even if this point keeps getting ignored, the risk of a deadly infectious disease spreading can’t be compared to killing a crippled child b/c ‘mercy’. Either mercy or some master plan by Mance, or a combo of both? I don’t even know anymore, this whole thing is doing my head in.

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Since Cersei's character (or lack thereof) has been called into question, I will add one piece of evidence.

Quote

“Father, I am sorry,” Cersei said, when the door was shut. “Joff has always been willful, I did warn you …” 
“There is a long league’s worth of difference between willful and stupid. ‘A strong king acts boldly?’ Who told him that?”
“Not me, I promise you,” said Cersei. “Most like it was something he heard Robert say …”
“The part about you hiding under Casterly Rock does sound like Robert.” Tyrion didn’t want Lord Tywin forgetting that bit. 
“Yes, I recall now,” Cersei said, “Robert often told Joff that a king must be bold.” (ASOS 53)

First she merely suggests that Robert probably said it, as if she was groping for an excuse for Joffrey's behavior.  A moment later, she suddenly recalls that he did say it, not once but "often."  If he had said it many times, wouldn't she recall it at once?  Is her sudden "recollection" actually a lie?

The sudden switch from "most like" to "often" reminds me of the switch from "we were alone" to "us and the children" in chapter 72.  Later in that chapter, she tells Jaime that she had lied to him "a thousand times." It seems that she's quite willing to lie in order to protect herself and her children.

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38 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I don’t think GRRM knew who hired the catspaw when he wrote AGOT, and I think he picked Joffrey in ASOS in order to be done with that plot line now that it had played out. I don’t expect it to have much importance going forward.

I tend to think something similar: that he initially intended for there to be no solution.  But he then concluded that wouldn't work, and then realized he had no good solution available.  Joffrey wound up as the least bad solution.  I also agree that this story line has run its course, and won't come up again.

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3 hours ago, Nevets said:

I tend to think something similar: that he initially intended for there to be no solution.  But he then concluded that wouldn't work, and then realized he had no good solution available.  Joffrey wound up as the least bad solution.  I also agree that this story line has run its course, and won't come up again.

IIRC it wasn’t mentioned in either AFFC or ADWD. Pinning it on Joffrey the chapter before he died was a good way of putting it away for good.

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7 hours ago, Aebram said:

Since Cersei's character (or lack thereof) has been called into question, I will add one piece of evidence.

First she merely suggests that Robert probably said it, as if she was groping for an excuse for Joffrey's behavior.  A moment later, she suddenly recalls that he did say it, not once but "often."  If he had said it many times, wouldn't she recall it at once?  Is her sudden "recollection" actually a lie?

The sudden switch from "most like" to "often" reminds me of the switch from "we were alone" to "us and the children" in chapter 72.  Later in that chapter, she tells Jaime that she had lied to him "a thousand times." It seems that she's quite willing to lie in order to protect herself and her children.

Preceded by a fishy denial first "Not me, I promise you!"

But yes, good example. Tyrion is correct the "hiding under the rock" would likely have been a Robert comment, but a "strong king acts boldly"??? Robert was not a "bold" king really, or a "strong" king. It sounds like something that Cersei would have said to Robert during a fight, when he wanted to let something slide, or trying to seek harmony, when she could not.  Similar to the arguments they had over Lady, or Ned fighting with Jaime in the streets. Her own POV in aFfC about Joffrey vs Tommen makes pretty clear she considered Joffrey's style more kingly. She thinks in terms of "boldness" and "strength". Robert thinks of barely clad women, hunting, drinking and eating.

Edited by sweetsunray
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11 hours ago, Aebram said:

Since Cersei's character (or lack thereof) has been called into question, I will add one piece of evidence.

First she merely suggests that Robert probably said it, as if she was groping for an excuse for Joffrey's behavior.  A moment later, she suddenly recalls that he did say it, not once but "often."  If he had said it many times, wouldn't she recall it at once?  Is her sudden "recollection" actually a lie?

The sudden switch from "most like" to "often" reminds me of the switch from "we were alone" to "us and the children" in chapter 72.  Later in that chapter, she tells Jaime that she had lied to him "a thousand times." It seems that she's quite willing to lie in order to protect herself and her children.

But why lie about this?  Cersei is with Jaime when he throws Bran out the window.  What does she need to keep hidden from him?  After all they travel together all the way back to KL from WF.  When Cersei has that conversation with Jaime it's after the Lannisters have won and after Stannis has declared their incest to the realm to no effect.  Who tried to kill Bran Stark, a boy believed murdered by Theon Greyjoy, is of no importance. Why does she need to lie or hide anything from Jaime?

We gain her as a pov in AFFC and learn all about Melara Hetherspoon and "Robert's children".  There's simply no reason to speculate that she was somehow behind the dagger but is lying to Jaime and hiding it from us and herself.

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2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

But why lie about this?  Cersei is with Jaime when he throws Bran out the window.  What does she need to keep hidden from him?  After all they travel together all the way back to KL from WF.  When Cersei has that conversation with Jaime it's after the Lannisters have won and after Stannis has declared their incest to the realm to no effect.  Who tried to kill Bran Stark, a boy believed murdered by Theon Greyjoy, is of no importance. Why does she need to lie or hide anything from Jaime?

We gain her as a pov in AFFC and learn all about Melara Hetherspoon and "Robert's children".  There's simply no reason to speculate that she was somehow behind the dagger but is lying to Jaime and hiding it from us and herself.

Automatic response. She does it even in her own head during the walk of shame. She's a pathological liar due to her narcissism who cannot be seen as being responsible for anything "bad" that happened, and by extension Joffrey. At the most she can admit at some point during the walk of shame is that she agreed to do the walk of shame. 

It's not the morals of the assassination attempt on Bran's life that Cersei would lie for. She doesn't care about that. But it was such an amateuristic sloppy execution too (so nothing to claim in pride), and it got Tyrion arrested by Cat. Cersei doesn't care about Tyrion, but she knows Jaime does. 

So, yes she has reasons to lie to Jaime and project her involvement onto Robert instead: it was a shoddy attempt and it got Tyrion arrested and potentially killed. There's no way she's going to allow Jaime to be angry with her over the brother she despises.

Edited by sweetsunray
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9 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

But why lie about this?  Cersei is with Jaime when he throws Bran out the window.  What does she need to keep hidden from him?  After all they travel together all the way back to KL from WF.  When Cersei has that conversation with Jaime it's after the Lannisters have won and after Stannis has declared their incest to the realm to no effect.  Who tried to kill Bran Stark, a boy believed murdered by Theon Greyjoy, is of no importance. Why does she need to lie or hide anything from Jaime?

We gain her as a pov in AFFC and learn all about Melara Hetherspoon and "Robert's children".  There's simply no reason to speculate that she was somehow behind the dagger but is lying to Jaime and hiding it from us and herself.

Well, that's a fair point. Sweetsunray has given a couple of counterpoints, and I'll add one more.

By the time Cersei and Jaime have this conversation (ASOS 72), he has already started on the path to becoming honorable. I don't recall the details of that, but we know that this is after he was escorted to King's Landing by Brienne, and we know that that journey influenced his thinking. Cersei was aware of the change; that would give her a reason not to trust him as much as she normally would.

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6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It's not the morals of the assassination attempt on Bran's life that Cersei would lie for. She doesn't care about that. But it was such an amateuristic sloppy execution too (so nothing to claim in pride), and it got Tyrion arrested by Cat. Cersei doesn't care about Tyrion, but she knows Jaime does. 

But this is long after Tyrion returned to KL quite safe and sound.  If he was still a prisoner in The Eyrie I could see why she might want to hide it from him but not at the time Jaime talks to her.  At that point Tyrion is a convicted regicide and parricide and Cersei asks Jaime to kill him for her.  I don't see her worrying about his reaction to her having put Tyrion at risk, however inadvertently.  And after all she would have been protecting Jaime and herself by trying to get rid of the witness to their incest.

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Automatic response. She does it even in her own head during the walk of shame. She's a pathological liar due to her narcissism who cannot be seen as being responsible for anything "bad" that happened, and by extension Joffrey. At the most she can admit at some point during the walk of shame is that she agreed to do the walk of shame. 

In part.  She remembers that Melara "fell" down the well when they were children but even in her head she does not admit she pushed her.  The reader has to infer that.  But the author presents us with a very clear picture that she did.  Given she is a pov and truly believes that Tyrion killed Joffrey I would at least expect her to gnash her teeth that her ploy with the dagger did not get Tyrion killed and thus spare Joffrey.  But the author gives us none of this, just Tyrion and Jaime reaching the conclusion that it was Joffrey.  And then it's never mentioned again.  Except on this forum  :P

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

There's no way she's going to allow Jaime to be angry with her over the brother she despises.

That brother has killed her son.  Jaime's son.  He was found guilty in Court and Trial by Combat and I really don't think Cersei is going to worry about Jaime being angry with her over Tyrion.   After all Joffery was both her and his son and she might expect him to feel something for Joffrey (though he does not). 

Forget we're talking ASOIAF for a moment: your son is murdered by your partner's brother.  Are you really going to worry your partner might get angry with you over something you may have done that put him at risk a few years ago or are you going to be cursing that he wasn't killed before he could harm your son?  If your partner is more angry about you accidentally putting his brother at risk (he survived unharmed) than he is about the murder of your son you are 100% getting a new partner.

31 minutes ago, Aebram said:

Cersei was aware of the change; that would give her a reason not to trust him as much as she normally would.

Tyrion is a criminal and kinslayer wanted for murdering her and Jaime's son.  He knows secrets that will kill them both in a heartbeat (Tommen and Myrcella too).  The dagger doesn't even register on the scale for her and is not something she needs to hide from him with Tyrion being Westeros's Most Wanted.  Assuming she ever had a reason to hide it from him when they were travelling from WF to KL for however months.

Cersei is not honest I give you.  But that doesn't support Cersei sent the catspaw and it certainly doesn't outweigh the textual explanation the author gives us with both barrels.

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