Without magic how high are the Ironborn's chances of success against the Redwyne Fleet and Oldtown's defenses ?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Let's imagine that Euron Greyjoy doesn't actually have any magic or that his magic ritual doesn't give him the power he imagined it would give to him, what do you think are the Ironborn's chances of victory against the incoming Redwyne Fleet and against the strong defenses of Oldtown ? 

How good or bad are the odds for the Ironborn in that case ? 

Personally I don't think that their chances are very high, the Iron Fleet under Euron's control is greatly disminished with Victarion having taken a good portion of the fleet to Essos (with a good part of it being lost at sea) and while the Ironborn are experienced at naval warfare their warships and smaller longships are going to have a hard time against the Redwyne Fleet's bigger dromonds and war galleys, not counting the number advantage that the Redwyne ships have.

Their chances would be even lesser against Oldtown, which would be far less affected and disadvantaged against any storm or kraken than a fleet at sea, has some of the best fortifications in Westeros, has at least thousands of defenders and whose forces are intact, not counting the limitations of Ironborn warfare against land armies and castles/fortifications, their limited numbers (even more after the Battle of Blood) and the incoming arrival of reinforcements led by Garlan Tyrell. 

Which is why I believe that without a dragon, even if he somehow uses true and very useful magic, Euron Greyjoy won't win an easy battle against the Redwyne Fleet without strong casualties for the Ironborn, and that the Ironborn can't hope to really conquer Oldtown or to hold it against the Reach armies. 

I don't think that Euron's goal is conquest anyway, nor that he has any regard for the losses of his countrymen, nor that his main interest in Oldtown is conquest but rather some precious magic item held in the Citadel or the Hightower.

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

I think they could beat the Redwyne fleet but would be unable to take Oldtown

[frenin]

Maybe maybe not against the Redwyne Fleet.

Zero chances to take Oldtown.

[astarkchoice]

The redwyne ships are bigger but are crewed by those who wont wear armour at sea and probably arent as experienced in naval combat. 

Numbers wise the wiki has iron islands having 500 ships equal to the redwyne fleet (the iron fleet is the 100 ship elite, bigger ships than most but apparently still not drommond size) so much smaller ships but faster

Even with all this the sheer bulk of the larger ships redwyne  fleet means a straight fight is probably a losing battle esp if followed by a battle against oldtown now they so have a small fleet and boon up on the river.

That said the ironborn raids rely on suprise and unexpected tactics...leaders are expected to be thinkers as much as warriors (vic not so much)  so we can expect them to try suprise tactics such as their attempted infiltration of oldtown pretending to traders! To counter that we know willas tyrell is very educated and has a sharp mind to compensate for his crippled body AND oldtown had one infiltration attempt thus is on guard

In terms of  elite warriors who could turn the tide of a close battle  euron is now wearing v.steel armour and his mockery of vic to his face hints he (possibly mistakenly) thinks he can take him so could be  (again could be)  an excellent fighter, theres also the knight with his v steel blade and of course andrik the unsmiling  ...their very best. To counter that we know garlan is a finer swordsman than renly thus is elite

[Gilbert Green]

The OP's question seems inspired by the false assumption that Euron will face the Redwyne Fleet or invade Oldtown.  But I'll address it anyway.

Without magic?  The Ironborn are raiders.  They have zero chance against the concentrated naval might of Westeros.   This is true even with the Iron Fleet, but is doubly true without it.

With magic?  Who knows.  Magic in theory can do anything.  But i think it is against GRRM's philosophy to rely on magic overmuch.

The question is academic because Euron has no intention whatsoever of waiting around for the Redwyne Fleet or attacking Oldtown.  The Redwyne Fleet are coming, so he is leaving.  He does not expect to hold the Shields, much less make new conquests.  He expects the Ironborn who accepted his "poison gifts" as Lords of the Shields to get their asses handed to them; and he does not plan to be around when they do.

[Gilbert Green]

6 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

I don't think that Euron's goal is conquest anyway, nor that he has any regard for the losses of his countrymen, nor that his main interest in Oldtown is conquest but rather some precious magic item held in the Citadel or the Hightower.

I agree with you that he has no (immediate) plans of conquest.  But what makes you think he has any interest in Oldtown at all?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

12 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

I agree with you that he has no (immediate) plans of conquest.  But what makes you think he has any interest in Oldtown at all?

Euron clearly has a thing for mystical items and knowledge, and the Citadel or the Hightower are the most obvious choices for him to try finding dark and ancient knowledge and possible hidden items.

[Gilbert Green]

22 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Euron clearly has a thing for mystical items and knowledge, and the Citadel or the Hightower are the most obvious choices for him to try finding dark and ancient knowledge and possible hidden items.

He has been to Valyria.  He has been to Asshai.  He has been all sorts of weird places.  Oldtown is not particularly weird by these standards.  This seems an insufficient answer.

The main thing Oldtown is particularly known for is lots of books.  But Rodrik is "the Reader"; not Euron.

He's not a collector.  he's a creature of chaos, who discards things he has no immediate use for, like the dragon egg he threw into the sea; or the Shield Islands, which he conquered and dispensed as poisoned gifts; or the Seastone Chair, which he handed off to Erik.

He makes no secret of what he is after:  Dany and Dragons.  And they are not to be found in Oldtown.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

12 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

He has been to Valyria.  He has been to Asshai.  He has been all sorts of weird places.  Oldtown is not particularly weird by these standards.  This seems an insufficient answer.

The main thing Oldtown is particularly known for is lots of books.  But Rodrik is "the Reader"; not Euron.

He's not a collector.  he's a creature of chaos, who discards things he has no immediate use for, like the dragon egg he threw into the sea; or the Shield Islands, which he conquered and dispensed as poisoned gifts; or the Seastone Chair, which he handed off to Erik.

He makes no secret of what he is after:  Dany and Dragons.  And they are not to be found in Oldtown.

He said he went to Valyria and Asshai, but didn't give the details or proofs of that. He may not have been as far as he claims he has been, nor has all the knowledge he wants. 

And whose place has the most knowledge in the world, and the greatest number of books and scrolls about magic in Westeros, and possibly some very ancient and dangerous magic items inside it ? The Citadel of Oldtown.

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

He said he went to Valyria and Asshai, but didn't give the details or proofs of that. He may not have been as far as he claims he has been, nor has all the knowledge he wants. 

He has managed to obtain a magic horn, a suit of Valyrian steel armor, and a supply of Shade of the Evening. I won't count the dragon's egg, since you will probably say "no proof".  It does not particularly matter where he got them -- he got them somewhere, and GRRM has given him a background and history that makes his possession of such items plausible.  He's been raiding for years and years, which is long enough for him to obtain anything the plot now needs for him to have.  If GRRM now needs to bring the story to a screeching halt so Euron can collect more stuff before the plot advances, then we might as well give up on the story.

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And whose place has the most knowledge in the world, and the greatest number of books and scrolls about magic in Westeros, and possibly some very ancient and dangerous magic items inside it ? The Citadel of Oldtown.

There is probably not a single person in his ship or fleet who knows how to read a book, with the possible exception of some of the prisoners.  And based on how he is treating those prisoners, I don't think he is planning to use them as readers.

Marwyn has (it seems) set sail on the Cinnamon Wind, and probably taken his buddies, as well as any important books and artifacts, including those that once belonged to Sam.  My guess is if there was ever anything of plot importance at Oldtown, it has already moved elsewhere.

[Bowen Marsh]

IB will have the same chances House Hoare had when they controlled the Riverlands and the surrounding people.  Only the Targaryens can force the IB into submission. 

[The Sleeper]

None whatsoever.

Euron is going east. My expectation is that his ritual will cause a massive storm, in line with how sacrifices from Moqorro and Melissa dare caused favorable winds. Only Euron is using king's blood (his unborn child Falia Flowers is bearing). I believe that the priests he has tied to his prow and those of his followers will protect them from the storm, leaving the Redwyne fleet and the rest of the Ironborne in tatters. Then he moves on.

Meanwhile, there many Ironborne nests which means the Hightowers and Redwynes will have trouble rooting them out with most of their fleets destroyed.

The notion of Oldtown falling to Euron is unsubstantiated. Even if you discount he fact that we're told of his plans, none of his actions support long term engagements.