Covid 48： The Long March

[Darzin]

As you were.

[Darzin]

It's crazy in China to have gone from it being insanely rare to know someone who has had Covid to go everyone knowing someone who has it or more likely has it themselves. It's peak pandemic here now with shops and offices closed do to lack of workers. 

I don't think there was any master plan with this it's very obvious there wasn't up until just before the lockdowns were lifted  the propaganda was still 100% pro zero Covid and then turned on a dime. If I had a guess the protests and zero Covid starting to show heavy cracks gave the anti-zero Covid faction of the Party enough leverage to get their way. but I'm just a mook so you should take that with a grain of salt but you should also give it equal weight to the opinions of whatever "China watchers" the media have rustled up.  

[Fragile Bird]

@Darzin that title may be hauntingly appropriate.

[DireWolfSpirit]

So true.

Zorral- "Yes, it's a shame and shameful, but we in the USA don't have any reason to be smug about it.  Look at the way our numbers are climbing again, people not being vaccinated, not having access to Pax or doctors or ambulances or hospital beds.  And not only by any means for covid."

With Japan, Korea, H.K., Taiwan and Singapore all also spiking currently, surely what is there, will be here in the U.S., in the coming weeks or months.

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by DireWolfSpirit

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

will be here in the U.S., in the coming weeks or months.

I'd say days as China now has entirely unrestricted travel coming in and going out.

[Derfel Cadarn]

9 hours ago, Zorral said:

I'd say days as China now has entirely unrestricted travel coming in and going out.

Are we back to where we were three years ago, with the virus running rampant in China, and every other country doing nothing to stop the inevitable spread worldwide?

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 hour ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Are we back to where we were three years ago, with the virus running rampant in China, and every other country doing nothing to stop the inevitable spread worldwide?

Japan is increasing restrictions for travelers from China again for example.

So not every country.

I do think that how the world is going is unwise but between vaccines and previous infections most people have some resistance now, long COVID  will just be ignored and people are already being refused treatment in most places because pretending everything is ok is of prime importance.

Long term effects on the immune systems of people are ignored instead the immune depth narrative is being pushed(ignoring the fact that places that had few COVID rules or rules but no enforcement are being hit be infections waves of flu, RSV and strep too). Even countries like Sweden that promoted anti-masking and even tried to push for it internationally or Switzerland that ended measures asap are no exception. 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Luzifer's right hand

[kiko]

On 12/27/2022 at 2:02 AM, Lily Liyang said:

On nov 11 the 20-measure Covid policy was introduced. Under this rule, quarantine was shortened by two day. It called for accelerating vaccination especially for the elderly, enhancing storage of medicine and medical equipment, preparing hospitals beds for severe cases…

It stirred up worries back then that the loosening policy would cause more inbound cases.

It shows the Chinese government was planning a gradual open-up. Which requires time.

But some of us (not including me ) just couldn’t accept it after three years of closing. Thus the protest.

The 20-measure policies was quickly abandoned.

And now it seems that people forget about this 20-measure and think the opening up in early December is a U-shape change.

 

Because they changed policies every day anyway. Just getting a fancy name for it  doesn't make it worthwhile. There was no special significance to this. It's not worth remembering.

The only thing counting is the woeful lack of preparation. They had plenty of time to do anything. They didn't. They tried to steal the recipes for the efficient vaccinations but failed. They were just crawling from one political milestone to the next, avoiding any responsibility in between. They used the situation for their political gains, like decoupling the country from the rest of the world. They successed in this, which will come to bite them later, because the west answered in kind.

Now thanks to your glorious leader, whe might have more unnecessary pandemic waves. All my extended family in Beijing is down with covid but can handle it - they have the means. I don't even want to imagine how it goes in the poorer areas.

[kiko]

1 hour ago, Lily Liyang said:

1. We don’t change policies every day. Just pay more attention to the policies since it concerns you.

 

Policies changed all the time and were handed out arbitrarily all over the place. Compare the handling of outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing.

1 hour ago, Lily Liyang said:

2. There’s nothing fancy about the policy names. 20 measure. Unless you find numbers fancy.

Are you Chinese?

1 hour ago, Lily Liyang said:

3. You may think these pieces not worthwhile but the majority of Chinese consider them worthwhile and willingly followed them. And thanks to the stringent policies me and all my families and everyone I know were out of the touch of Covid in the past three years when it was most deadly.

And that was very admirable. And from outside it was very visible how the government was brainwashing it's people with and during those measures. Even open and educated people were singing praises to the party in the end. Well this is the end.

1 hour ago, Lily Liyang said:

4. As I explained in my last reply the 20 measure requires time to prepare for opening up. We do not have plenty of time.

I consider the 3 years that the zero covid policy bought you plenty of time. Other countries managed to develop several generations of working covid vaccinations, made their health institutions resilient and developed strategies to deal with outbreaks. China...nothing.

1 hour ago, Lily Liyang said:

5. Please offer solid proofs when you state that China tried to STEAL receipts.

https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/moderna-and-china-at-impasse-over-mrna-covid-vaccine/

For example this link. It's the first one in English that I could find but there are more. This is a tried and tested pattern by the Chinese government.

1 hour ago, Lily Liyang said:

6. I don’t think the political gains will bite us in the future.

So you acknowledge that their aim was political gains?

1 hour ago, Lily Liyang said:

8. Sorry to make you worry about unnecessary pandemic waves. But you can’t scoop China out of the globe.

That's why we can expect the Chinese government to act more responsible. They can't scoop themselves out of the globe.

 

Anyways. No hard feelings. I have watched the effect of the Chinese propaganda since covid start on friends and relatives. But maybe consider the fact that the current situation in your country points out that not everything is well.

 

[Wilbur]

Just a personal observation from the Southwest Airlines collapse over Christmas, but less than 5% of travelers - the pre-Christmas normal flights, the flightless hordes in the airports, the lost luggage seekers, the recovery-days travelers - in both Canada and the States were masked.

Given we were traveling on the West Coast, and flights were coming into the gateways from Asia as normal, I have to think that we can expect some of those unusual numbers cramped together this past week are going to pass along whatever flavor of the illness China is brewing currently.

So very many elderly folks were traveling, and I just don't understand why other folks don't do the Lone Ranger cosplay just in case you give one of them their final illness.  Even the useless muppets at the TSA were unmasked.

We are all going to test tomorrow just to use up some expiring kits, and also to be sure we didn't collect something.  We all feel fine, but that is also likely due to the euphoria of being back home in Arizona after a week in the dark and cold and rain and snow.

[kiko]

On 12/31/2022 at 2:41 PM, Lily Liyang said:

Okay. I yield. You won. Congrats from a fool who’s been brainwashed. And woes to the country that’s done nothing in the past three years.

Nobody said they have done nothing and if my text reads as such, apologizes. They just didn't use the time, they bought for themselves, wisely. They have frozen the situation and it's coming back now.

Observer article discussing what it could mean politically

Quote

In his first public comments to the Chinese people on Covid since his government changed course three weeks ago, Xi used his speech on Saturday to claim the government and Chinese Communist party (CCP) had “put the people first and put life first all along”.

For many in China, that phrase will ring hollow, particularly those fighting for medical care for loved ones newly struck down by the disease.

Questions about why the country clung so long to zero-Covid, at such heavy cost, and did so little to prepare for opening up are likely to undermine Xi, even if the damage to his authority isn’t visible beyond the walls of the secretive leadership compounds.

 

[Which Tyler]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/03/travellers-from-china-who-test-positive-in-uk-for-covid-will-not-need-to-isolate

Quote

 

Travellers from China who test positive in UK for Covid will not need to isolate

Transport secretary says infection data collected at airport ‘for surveillance purposes'

People arriving in the UK from China will not be required to self-isolate if they test positive for Covid-19, the transport secretary has said.

Covid cases in China continue to surge after Beijing’s abrupt decision to end most of its severe pandemic restrictions.

 

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Which Tyler

[Luzifer's right hand]

33 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/03/travellers-from-china-who-test-positive-in-uk-for-covid-will-not-need-to-isolate

 

It's the same in most countries that want to test from travellers from China on arrival but have no quarantine requirements for COVID anymore afaik.

Most stuff I read makes it clear that testing like that will be useful for scientific reasons if a new variant shows up and to get a picture of what is happening in China because of the lack of data. It is not about limiting the spread which would make no sense as infecting as many people as often as possible is the de facto approach of most countries with many activily encouraging not testing and going to work or school infected.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Luzifer's right hand

[Fragile Bird]

Some professors here in Canada have accused the government of being wrong headed by announcing visitors from China will need to have a negative Covid test to enter the country. They say testing didn’t work before and won’t work now. No quarantine provisions because people who test positive won’t be allowed to enter the country. Public Health says it’s a 30-day temporary measure because of the lack of information about what’s going on in China.

In addition, I’ve heard that there will be an experimental program starting up in Vancouver, testing the wastewater from airplanes coming in from Asia for Covid-19. That might be more reliable.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Fragile Bird

[Gareth]

53 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Some professors here in Canada have accused the government of being wrong headed by announcing visitors from China will need to have a negative Covid test to enter the country. They say testing didn’t work before and won’t work now. No quarantine provisions because people who test positive won’t be allowed to enter the country. Public Health says it’s a 30-day temporary measure because of the lack of information about what’s going on in China.

It depends on the intent or what Canada is trying to achieve.  If the intent of requiring negative COVID test to enter the country is to slow or prevent transmission of COVID then it is pointless since COVID is already circulating through Canada.  Likewise, if it is to prevent a certain variant from China then that is also pointless since the BF.7 variant has been detected in Canada since August I think. 

I heard a decent podcast about how many countries see negative covid test for entry as a form of punishment.  This perception stemmed from when most countries required a negative test for entry for South Africans because they were the first to identify the omicron variant (even though it was first detected in Botswana).  Singling a country out doesn't make sense at this point and just stymie data sharing and transparency.  

[Fragile Bird]

47 minutes ago, Gareth said:

It depends on the intent or what Canada is trying to achieve.  If the intent of requiring negative COVID test to enter the country is to slow or prevent transmission of COVID then it is pointless since COVID is already circulating through Canada.  Likewise, if it is to prevent a certain variant from China then that is also pointless since the BF.7 variant has been detected in Canada since August I think. 

I heard a decent podcast about how many countries see negative covid test for entry as a form of punishment.  This perception stemmed from when most countries required a negative test for entry for South Africans because they were the first to identify the omicron variant (even though it was first detected in Botswana).  Singling a country out doesn't make sense at this point and just stymie data sharing and transparency.  

I think Public Health was trying to be reasonable by saying it’s for 30 days (which can be extended, for sure) because of a lack of data coming out of China. And while you might cry “punishment” or even “racism”, I suspect health officials don’t want to be lashed with the same criticism they got back in 2020 that they hadn’t acted fast enough.

I did a quick look at various news reports, including the WaPo and the NYT, and I gather pretty well most officials feel there simply isn’t enough information coming out of China to make  a good risk assessment. I see a UK company called Airfinity is projecting 1.7 million deaths by April, coming in two waves peaking in January and March. Their “very steep growth” of cases is modeled off of what happened in Hong Kong when Omicron hit. On the other hand the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington has modeled 300,000 deaths by April 1 and between 1.25 and 1.6 M deaths by the end of the year. A researcher at Columbia University is estimating between 600 M and 900 M cases in China, and if the US fatality rate of 0.15% holds true for China, that’s 900,000 to 1.35 M deaths. Maybe you think that number is a yawn for a country with a population of 1.4 B, but those are real lives lost.

But all of the researchers are saying that because China is not sharing enough information, projections are difficult to make.

The WaPo article quotes the WHO saying they understand countries trying to protect their citizens with travel restrictions, and also the Columbia researcher saying they’re ridiculous, that testing airplane wastewater is far better. The temporary testing requirement Canada is putting in place combined with wastewater testing starting up seems fairly reasonable to me.

[Gareth]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I think Public Health was trying to be reasonable by saying it’s for 30 days (which can be extended, for sure) because of a lack of data coming out of China. And while you might cry “punishment” or even “racism”, I suspect health officials don’t want to be lashed with the same criticism they got back in 2020 that they hadn’t acted fast enough.

Thats the issue.  Its already too late.  From WHO reports, the variants that are surging through China are not new variants but variants that are already in Canada, the U.S., Europe, etc.  It would be different if the COVID surge in China is due to a new variant.  Requiring a negative test from just China when someone infected with BF7 traveling from Europe, the U.S., or any other countries entering Canada w/o a required test doesn't make sense.  If the Public Health are really trying to do their due diligence to protect Canadians, they should require a negative test for everyone entering Canada.  Even then, historically that has not shown to be effective...ie see Japan, Taiwan, USA, etc.  I'm surprised that countries continue to do the same things over and over again even though empirical evidence don't support these measures.  Government should stop with comfort measures that empirically have been shown to be ineffective.  

Like I said at this point, the world has to be more transparent and willing to share data with each other.  Alienating 1 country is the wrong step to promote this. 

[Fragile Bird]

16 minutes ago, Gareth said:

Like I said at this point, the world has to be more transparent and willing to share data with each other.  Alienating 1 country is the wrong step to promote this. 

That’s kind of amusing. Do you think if countries didn’t ask for negative tests China would start being more transparent with information? Do you think the country that locked foreigners in their apartments for months at a time would consider a request for a negative test from travelers to be too burdensome?

[Zorral]

Quote

 

...  on Friday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Covid-19 variant dashboard revealed a new dark horse that could soon sweep the field: XBB.1.5. 

The CDC estimates that XBB.1.5 has more than doubled its share of the Covid-19 pie each week for the last four, rising from about 4% to 41% of new infections over the month of December. In the Northeast, the CDC estimates, XBB.1.5 is causing 75% of new cases.

“For a few months now, we haven’t seen a variant that’s taken off at that speed,” said Pavitra Roychoudhury, director of Covid-19 sequencing at the University of Washington School of Medicine’s virology lab.

Travellers walk with their luggage at Beijing Capital International Airport, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Beijing, China December 27, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
US to require travelers from China to show negative Covid-19 test result before flight
Virologists and epidemiologists say this Omicron sublineage has features that give it the potential to drive a new surge of Covid-19 cases in the US, although it’s still unclear how large that wave will be and whether it could send many more people to the hospital.

For all the recent concern that a new Covid-19 threat could come from China’s ongoing surge, experts point out that XBB.1.5 appears to have arisen in the United States. It was first detected in New York and Connecticut in late October, according to GISAID, a global effort to catalog and track variants of the coronavirus.

Trevor Bedford, a professor of computational biology at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle, said XBB.1.5 has a growth rate similar to that of its distant cousin BA.5.

Bedford has pegged its effective reproductive number – the number of new infections expected to be caused by each infected person – at about 1.6, roughly 40% higher than its next closest competitor.

“I expect it to drive increased circulation in the coming weeks,” Bedford wrote in an email. ...

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/health/covid-variant-xbb-explainer/index.html

[Impmk2]

The introduction of testing requirements from China is entirely populist and has precisely zero public health benefits.

Chinese labs are still uploading sequences to GISAID so there's a decent grip on the circulating varients there. 388 sequences in the last month. For comparison there's been 47 from India (the next largest country). And I can't be bothered finding all the individual countries but a cursory glance looks like ~20 sequences all up from the entire African continent, and that's only due to South Africa still uploading.

Yes China isn't doing widespread testing so the extent of the outbreak is anyone's guess. But you could say the same for literally any other country on the planet.

And to top that because of the largely naive status of the population the drivers for the evolulation of an immunoevasive variant aren't there to the same extent as the rest of the world. So the risk per infection from China right now is less, and frankly if a nasty variant does arise (much like omicron) there's no stopping it getting out, travel testing requirements or no.