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"Only 500 pages to go" for Winds of Winter


Aebram
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The usual flood of caveats:

  • GRRM only counts finished and edited (or locked) pages/chapters in his count. He does not count material which does not fall into this category. In the past he has talked extensively of "roughs, drafts, partials and fragments," ranging from almost-complete chapters that just need light work to be declared "complete" to material that needs to be junked and rewritten from scratch. For ADWD, the amount of rough or incomplete material was extremely high, allowing George to tear through that material to finalise it very quickly: 500 manuscript pages in the last year of work (2010-11).
  • GRRM does not write the books linearly, but by character, swapping only when he needs to ensure the timelines match up or he gets bored. Once the arcs are all complete, he cuts them up and space them out through the book. As a result, if he has finished all of Tyrion, Dany and Sansa's chapters, but hasn't even started Bran's, and Chapters 2, 6 and 8 need to be Bran chapters, then he can't simply "publish what he has." Famously, he did not write the prologue for ADWD until fairly close to the end of the process, or the Red Wedding chapter until the very end of work on ASoS.
  • The previous space limitations on the length of the book no longer apply, since ASoIaF has sold almost ten times as many copies as it had when ADWD came out, which means his publishers will indulge him with a longer book. He also appears much more relaxed about smashing previous page limitations and simply issuing the book in two volumes. This is both good - it should avoid "squeezing out" major events as happened at the end of ADWD - and also bad, as it creates the possibility of George simply writing a ton more material and taking more time to do so, even if we end up with two fairly significantly-sized books at the end of it.
  • As a result, we can say that TWoW currently consists of 1100-1200 manuscript pages of completed material (already longer than AGoT, ACoK and AFFC in their entirety), an unknown further amount of incomplete material (possibly a lot, maybe almost nothing), and is roughly 75% complete. Past history suggests the last 25% should come much faster than the rest. But we insufficient data to make firm predictions on when it might be finished or released, save that a 2023 release seems very unlikely.
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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

The usual flood of caveats:

  • GRRM only counts finished and edited (or locked) pages/chapters in his count.

Only when the context so indicates.

2 hours ago, Werthead said:
  • As a result, we can say that TWoW currently consists of 1100-1200 manuscript pages of completed material (already longer than AGoT, ACoK and AFFC in their entirety), an unknown further amount of incomplete material (possibly a lot, maybe almost nothing), and is roughly 75% complete.

In effect, you are arguing that when GRRM says he is about three-quarters done, he really means he is MORE than 75% done.  You are arguing against the context.

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2 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

In effect, you are arguing that when GRRM says he is about three-quarters done, he really means he is MORE than 75% done.  You are arguing against the context.

This is correct, and based on the very clear precedent of exactly what happened with A Storm of SwordsA Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons (and it appears the first two books as well, although their writing processes were completed before this forum and website were online and GRRM was issuing regular updates).

With ADWD, GRRM has confirmed that he finalised the last 25% of the book in the final year or so of working on it. However, this does not mean he took 4 years (or 10, if you count the material he wrote alongside AFFC) to write 75% of the book and 1 year to write 25%, which would be bizarre, but he had significant material in a non-finalised state that he needed to bring to a finalised state through editing and revisions rather than writing from scratch.

With TWoW George has not indicated if such material exists for that book in very large numbers, a small number or is non-existent, so we cannot extrapolate how much time it will take to bring the book to a conclusion (an inexact task at the best of times).

It is also possible that George has completely changed how he phrases his progress reports for TWoW from how he's done it consistently for the three previous books over a period of 23 years, but we have zero evidence for that.

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4 hours ago, Werthead said:

It is also possible that George has completely changed how he phrases his progress reports for TWoW from how he's done it consistently for the three previous books over a period of 23 years, but we have zero evidence for that.

This is simply not correct.  In October, 2009 he announced on his NAB that he had just passed the 1100 page mark for DANCE.  But in January 2010, 3 months later, he submitted a "partial' of 1038 pages.  Then in February 2010, he announced on his NAB that he had passed 1205, then 1261 pages.  But then in June, 2010, he submits the next "partial" of 1028 pages (down 10 pages from January, probably due to the bumped chapters).  Moving on to Winds.  In 2012 he tells a Barcelona news conference that he has 200 "more or less finished" pages; and another 200 that are much rougher; and also in 2012 tells a reporter that he is about 25% done, but then in Feb., 2013, submits a "partial" of 168 pages to his editor, which does not include some sample chapters already released publicly in some form.

The rule you are talking about does not exist.  We know he is talking about partial manuscript submissions, when he says he is talking about partial manuscript submissions.  Otherwise, he could be talking merely about pages written, in some less 'finished-finished" sense.

I'm happy that he is "about three quarters" done and has about 1100 pages more or less "written" in some sense.   No need to twist that into more than it says.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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12 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

This is simply not correct. 

The rule you are talking about does not exist.

No need to twist that into more than it says.

From observing GRRM's writing style and his progress reports over a quarter of a century, it is not incorrect and "the rule" does indeed exist, although it is more of a guideline and trend. As I noted, ADWD was in some respects a very unique case in that "finalised" material was being "unfinalised" at an unprecedented rate because of the Meereenese Knot situation, which in turn generated significantly more unpolished draft pages than might have otherwise been the norm. Since we do not know beyond supposition if a similar "knot" situation existed for TWoW (one can guess so, because otherwise why the reason for the delay, but George has never said as such), it is hard to say if the same is the case for TWoW, or it is even worse or better.

There is also a distinct difference between drafts and fragments and the "partial manuscripts" he sends his editor, so-called because they are not the full manuscript (because it is not finished). These tend to be for contractual obligations to generate payments. He tries not to send more material than the minimum required until he is prepared to do so, especially in the case of ADWD where the Knot was impacting heavily on the final third or so of the book. In July 2010 he went as far as saying he had 1400 finished ADWD pages, even though we know he only sent 1028 to his editor. His editor even noted that the first partial manuscript he sent for TWoW was for a contractual obligation, otherwise he'd have preferred to have hung onto it and polished it more before releasing it.

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23 hours ago, EggBlue said:

poor George , he seems a bit frustrated ! I kinda feel sorry for him ..

 

I did take a few days off for the holidays, I confess.   Shame on me, I guess.   But now I am back in the salt mine, working… working on so many bloody things, my head may soon explode.   Yes, WINDS OF WINTER, yes, yes. .....  Oh, and did I forget WINDS OF WINTER?  No, of course I didn’t.   But if I ever did, I know you folks will remind me....... well, this past week the G-Men lost a heartbreaker to the Vikings, and the Jets failed to turn up for their game against the Jags.  (Please, Mike White, get well soon).   Life is meaningless and full of pain.   Clearly, the Football Gods hate me.   Maybe they are pissed off about WINDS being so late too…...... WHITE LOTUS 2 on HBO made me want to go visit Sicily… but I won’t, not until WINDS is done and delivered, I promised...... 

 

(it was also somewhat funny , the way he kept writing ok ok I'm working on Winds!)

He sounds bitter, as he has sounded with regard to Winds for years.

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So he had written about 900 pages in 12 years (200+ pages are taken from DwD). I assume after he finishes, there will be much rewritting, adding and changing some details. And there's editors and printers work after that. Goerge won't complete it by 2030 and sadly he will be 82 years old at that point.

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On 12/28/2022 at 11:05 PM, astarkchoice said:

If he dies hes told his wife to burn his outline for the ending and any other new materials hes made !!! Art isnt a democracy he says  so apparently fuck us fans  if he crokes wel.never know the real ending intended !!!!  

Worked out for Kafka, didn't it?

People worry to much about imaginary problems. I have detailed it elsewhere so I won't repeat myself but GRRM shouldn't be dying any time soon. To add to it, even if he does he will change his mind about publication, and even if he doesn't sooner or later rights will come to people who simply do not care, hard to enforce one's will when you are dead.

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I am not 100% sure how honest I am with myself about Winds, ASoiaF. When not thinking specifics I kinda assume we’ll one day have all the answers George wants us to have. But otoh, actual real life progress has been glacial and ever more glacial as time goes by, his attitude towards ASoiaF fans has gotten more consistently hostile, and sometimes he seems like a man who is, deep in his heart, first and foremost a tv writer who sidelined into novels. And I also think that getting so big and taking so long has created a situation where we have an author who loves surprising his readers with almost no potential secrets left which haven’t been predicted and much discussed online. He’s probably not so much revealing the unknown, but rather pointing out which theories were most accurate at this point.
 

But to me the biggest dumps of negativity come from watching George talk about being lapped by the show back when he seemed to think that was unlikely; he talked about the possibility in very dark, disastrous terms, like being run over by a train, and I worry that telling a story the readers *mostly* already know is much, much less inspiring than telling one they do. I think the show passing him may have killed his passion for writing the series, and the backlash to the disastrous last ~ season and a half both added to his ambivalence and also provided attainable, though obviously much smaller goalposts through which he can redeem the story by differentiating from the show or simply by telling it better. Problem is this is a pretty small, petty flame when contrasted with younger George’s passion for the characters he has created and the story he wants to tell. And I also think he’s able to enjoy his life more than when he was younger and poorer and that, too, takes it’s toll. 
 

When I think about it critically, I think Winds is probable some day, Spring much less so, and the 2/3/4/? books he feels that remain to complete the story seem a serious long shot at best.

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46 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

his attitude towards ASoiaF fans has gotten more consistently hostile

This, I can't allow to pass.

At no point has GRRM ever been 'hostile' to ASOIAF fans. He has been unfailingly generous, supportive and understanding, for decades. It's crystal clear, on top of that, that he feels an acute responsibility to fans and that this weighs on him daily.

On occasion, GRRM has expressed frustration towards individuals who are rude or hostile towards him, and that's understandable. He's regularly accused online of being lazy, greedy, and uncaring by people who don't understand or care about the very real problems creative people sometimes face, who want to believe that the reason for the slow writing pace is his own personal failings, as judged by people who've never met him. I think we'd all find that tremendously difficult and would sometimes express a little frustration about it.

But if there's hostility in this equation, it's being directed at GRRM by a small number of entitled people online. It's not directed from GRRM to fans. GRRM has always appreciated how lucky he is to have such a worldwide, dedicated fan base and still does.

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12 minutes ago, mormont said:

This, I can't allow to pass.

At no point has GRRM ever been 'hostile' to ASOIAF fans. He has been unfailingly generous, supportive and understanding, for decades. It's crystal clear, on top of that, that he feels an acute responsibility to fans and that this weighs on him daily.

On occasion, GRRM has expressed frustration towards individuals who are rude or hostile towards him, and that's understandable. He's regularly accused online of being lazy, greedy, and uncaring by people who don't understand or care about the very real problems creative people sometimes face, who want to believe that the reason for the slow writing pace is his own personal failings, as judged by people who've never met him. I think we'd all find that tremendously difficult and would sometimes express a little frustration about it.

But if there's hostility in this equation, it's being directed at GRRM by a small number of entitled people online. It's not directed from GRRM to fans. GRRM has always appreciated how lucky he is to have such a worldwide, dedicated fan base and still does.

Hostile may be too strong, I’ll ~ concede. Increasingly frustrated and sarcastic with their frustration with his (serial) broken promises, better? But it’s hard not to look at his ‘No Winds, breaking promise, doing F&B stuff first, sorry, kinda sucks to be you’ post from a while back as anything less than hostile, same for some of his remarks on fans in interviews. If you’re more comfortable calling those outliers possibly increasing as fan frustration mounts, I’ll not quibble. 
 

I would still disagree pretty strongly with equating frustration with repeated breaks of explicit promises and ‘entitlement’.  
 

edit: to be clear, my position on GRRM is that everything he does (or doesn’t) is up to him, if he enjoys life more when not writing ASoiaF…as I strongly suspects he does…than if I were his friend I would encourage him doing just that.

But as a reader, and as a member of a group he has repeatedly made and broken promises to…in addition to the ethical constraints upon selling ‘individual’ novels as part of a series…and who is becoming increasingly certain I’ll never see the completion of the story I’ve been invested in for years and years and years, I have as much right to my frustration as George does to his autonomy. That said, I would never write to George with anything but a respectful tone, and am unlikely to write to him in any way at all when it comes down to it. 

Edited by James Arryn
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11 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Hostile may be too strong, I’ll ~ concede. Increasingly frustrated and sarcastic with their frustration with his (serial) broken promises, better? But it’s hard not to look at his ‘No Winds, breaking promise, doing F&B stuff first, sorry, kinda sucks to be you’ post from a while back as anything less than hostile, same for some of his remarks on fans in interviews. If you’re more comfortable calling those outliers possibly increasing as fan frustration mounts, I’ll not quibble. 
 

I would still disagree pretty strongly with equating frustration with repeated breaks of explicit promises and ‘entitlement’.  

Here, you're still generalising about 'fans' so that your original statement about GRRM's attitude to them can stand. It doesn't stand. Nor do some of the assertions you're making about past statements by GRRM.

Just say 'I was out of line, sorry' and leave it there, would be my advice.

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1 minute ago, mormont said:

Here, you're still generalising about 'fans' so that your original statement about GRRM's attitude to them can stand. It doesn't stand. Nor do some of the assertions you're making about past statements by GRRM.

Just say 'I was out of line, sorry' and leave it there, would be my advice.

Fans was used as inclusive, not comprehensive. As in all Piraeus fans are from Piraeus, but not all fans are Greek, kinda. I’d also be very open to corrections of my assertions of GRRM statements, I am saddened by my current understanding of them. But it feels weird to be addressed as though I am party to the toxic noise he gets subjected to, rather than someone being very understanding of his autonomy and sympathetic to his dilemmas as I understand them, but imo reasonably let down when he makes promises than casually breaks them while admitting to finding frustration about broken promises (again) ‘tiresome’.
 

If that’s the lne you’re defending, then let me know because that sounds like the view on freedom of expression where person A has every right to express them self, regardless of the effect it will have on others, but no one has any freedom to express their response to that. 

Lastly, if the last line was a slightly couched warning, please pm me as it would be of importance to me.

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3 hours ago, mormont said:

This, I can't allow to pass.

At no point has GRRM ever been 'hostile' to ASOIAF fans. He has been unfailingly generous, supportive and understanding, for decades. It's crystal clear, on top of that, that he feels an acute responsibility to fans and that this weighs on him daily.

I agree that it weighs on him.  But this weight sometimes expresses itself as pique.  You can fantasize that this pique is only addressed to the "bad fans" (whoever they are).  But it certainly can be a bit hard to tell.

3 hours ago, mormont said:

On occasion, GRRM has expressed frustration towards individuals who are rude or hostile towards him, and that's understandable.

"Gareth" was not rude to GRRM in any way shape or form in that infamous Neil Gaiman blog post.  But GRRM seemed, at least, to 100% endorse Neil Gaiman's extreme rudeness toward "Gareth".   Of course, it could be that GRRM did not really read what Gareth actually wrote.

3 hours ago, mormont said:

He's regularly accused online of being lazy, greedy, and uncaring by people who don't understand or care about the very real problems creative people sometimes face, who want to believe that the reason for the slow writing pace is his own personal failings, as judged by people who've never met him. I think we'd all find that tremendously difficult and would sometimes express a little frustration about it.

I agree that GRRM is only human.  But the fans are human too.  Fan frustration, at least for many fans, is the flip side of fan enthusiasm. 

There is no way for the fans to win.  If they think that GRRM could be working harder than he is (which I guess implies that he "is lazy") they are accused of attacking GRRM.  If they think that GRRM is working hard, but on the wrong things, such as HBO projects for HBO cash (which I guess implies that he "is greedy"), they are accused of attacking GRRM.  If they begin to suspect that GRRM really is doing his best, but just cannot finish in any kind of reasonable time, because he has just gotten too old and/or has writers block and/or has written himself into a corner, they are accused of attacking GRRM.   If, 11 years ago, fans had predicted that GRRM would take 12+ years to finish the next book, they would have been accused of attacking GRRM. 

3 hours ago, mormont said:

But if there's hostility in this equation, it's being directed at GRRM by a small number of entitled people online.

The "entitled" accusation was also directed - totally without justification - at poor "Gareth".

If fans believe that GRRM owes them anything, they are accused of being "entitled".  If fans accept that GRRM owes them nothing; begin to suspect that he will give them the nothing he owes them; they are accused of attacking GRRM.

I guess the only right kind of fan is the one who believes that GRRM owes them nothing, but has absolute faith that he will give them everything.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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4 hours ago, mormont said:

it's being directed at GRRM by a small number of entitled people online.

I believe the number is smaller now but it was really awful a few years back.  Not just nasty, but horribly vile and abusive.  That's not something I want to be around.  I can't imagine the toll that took on George.  It's not likely to energize him in any way.  I think the calmer is gets and the less noise makes it easier to continue.  I hope that he is living the life he wants to live and deserves to enjoy the fruits of his labour at this stage.   I'll consider whatever I get from him as a gift.

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4 hours ago, James Arryn said:

If that’s the lne you’re defending, then let me know because that sounds like the view on freedom of expression where person A has every right to express them self, regardless of the effect it will have on others, but no one has any freedom to express their response to that. 

Just to be clear about my comment; I'm not upset or offended by anything you have said.  I'm referring to something completely different.  I hear your comments as expressing a profound sense of loss.  A feeling that is shared by many people.

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4 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Fans was used as inclusive, not comprehensive. As in all Piraeus fans are from Piraeus, but not all fans are Greek, kinda.

If you're saying that you meant to indicate that GRRM is upset at only some fans, not fans in general: that's not how your post reads at all, I'm afraid. Nor your follow-up post. Both seem to be either suggesting that you believe that all fans are upset with GRRM for doing anything other than write, or that GRRM believes this. That's buttressed by some rather uncharitable comments about GRRM's past statements and behaviour, including in this post to which I'm responding.

If you see yourself as being sympathetic but are coming over unsympathetic, well, maybe consider why.

4 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Lastly, if the last line was a slightly couched warning, please pm me as it would be of importance to me.

If I were giving any type of warning, it would not be ambiguous.

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