"Only 500 pages to go" for Winds of Winter

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

7 hours ago, SeanBeanedMeUp said:

It's one thing to feel frustration, disappointment, and concern over Winds not being released as promised. And it's another to accuse GRRM of being an idiot hack liar. Guy is trying to write one of the greatest fantasy sagas of all time and he needs to make sure it matches the high quality he's put into the other books. There's so much for him he needs to do and I cannot blame him for struggling to wrap up all loose ends. And worse he was stuck with having to help out the show which I don't think did Winds any favors.

I hate this mindset coming from the toxic fanbase and such things don't help GRRM through making it to the end.

What frustrates me the most is that GRRM himself has said on a podcast that writers shouldn’t endlessly fiddle around with their stories. He definitely doesn’t follow his own advice.

[SeanBeanedMeUp]

7 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

What frustrates me the most is that GRRM himself has said on a podcast that writers shouldn’t endlessly fiddle around with their stories. He definitely doesn’t follow his own advice.

He's trying to make it the best story he can. It's not easy for him to hold himself to the high standards that made this story great in the first place. Big difference IMO.

[BlackLightning]

On 12/28/2022 at 11:21 AM, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

He doesn't know if Casterly Rock will appear in the book or not yet. How does he know how close to finished he is if he doesn't even have an idea of what finished looks like? If he's got 1200 pages it's time to edit and and publish. Take a month off, come back write an outline for Dream, and get to it.

I do not blame him for not knowing (or, alternatively, debating) whether or not Casterly Rock will appear in The Winds of Winter. If he has approximately 500 pages left to go, then Casterly Rock is a clearly setting that will either only appear in the last one or two chapters of a single POV...or it will appear in the prologue/epilogue. Maybe both.

In any case, Cersei is the only full-fledged POV character who this makes sense for. Yes, it makes sense for Jaime but...he's a very distant second. Unless GRRM is going to do what I think he is going to do with Jaime, it actually makes more sense for Sybell Westerling to have a prologue POV chapter at Casterly Rock than it does for Jaime. But back to Cersei...I am 99% certain that Cersei will not die (or otherwise cease to be a POV character) in Winds. Outside of being a prisoner of Team fAegon in King's Landing (which would be dreadfully boring...there will be too many POVs there), Cersei's only course of action is to leave King's Landing and the only place she can go -- apart from taking her chances in the Free Cities -- is Casterly Rock. @Lord Varys and I have been going back and forth over the past few years about if Cersei will ally herself with Euron before or after she gets to Castery Rock; I personally think that the Greyjoy-Lannister alliance won't happen until after Cersei makes it back to Casterly Rock in A Dream of Spring. However, if Lord Varys' predictions are more in line with what's going to happen, then the book would end with Cersei either leaving King's Landing or encountering Euron at sea.

Apart from that, I agree. It's time to start buckling down to edit and revise

[Lord Varys]

On 1/10/2023 at 5:11 PM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

What frustrates me the most is that GRRM himself has said on a podcast that writers shouldn’t endlessly fiddle around with their stories. He definitely doesn’t follow his own advice.

He certainly doesn't. But then - George isn't the kind of writer who produces really great material in a first or second draft. If you read his outlines or whatever earlier versions of chapters we do have then this becomes pretty clear. Some of George's best works are the result of multiple rewrites - like, for instance, as he says the novella 'The Skin Trade' or arguably the chapter 'Mercy' which will be published in TWoW. That chapters existed since before George dropped the five year gap and has been constantly rewritten ever since.

14 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I do not blame him for not knowing (or, alternatively, debating) whether or not Casterly Rock will appear in The Winds of Winter. If he has approximately 500 pages left to go, then Casterly Rock is a clearly setting that will either only appear in the last one or two chapters of a single POV...or it will appear in the prologue/epilogue. Maybe both.

My interpretation of the NAB post this is about would be that he definitely wrote chapter(s) set in Casterly Rock at this point, but didn't intend to publicly reveal that since it might be that said chapters wouldn't be included in TWoW.

14 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

In any case, Cersei is the only full-fledged POV character who this makes sense for. Yes, it makes sense for Jaime but...he's a very distant second. Unless GRRM is going to do what I think he is going to do with Jaime, it actually makes more sense for Sybell Westerling to have a prologue POV chapter at Casterly Rock than it does for Jaime. But back to Cersei...I am 99% certain that Cersei will not die (or otherwise cease to be a POV character) in Winds. Outside of being a prisoner of Team fAegon in King's Landing (which would be dreadfully boring...there will be too many POVs there), Cersei's only course of action is to leave King's Landing and the only place she can go -- apart from taking her chances in the Free Cities -- is Casterly Rock. @Lord Varys and I have been going back and forth over the past few years about if Cersei will ally herself with Euron before or after she gets to Castery Rock; I personally think that the Greyjoy-Lannister alliance won't happen until after Cersei makes it back to Casterly Rock in A Dream of Spring. However, if Lord Varys' predictions are more in line with what's going to happen, then the book would end with Cersei either leaving King's Landing or encountering Euron at sea.

Oh, the timeline there is still very much in flux. An ideal setting would have Cersei leave between her second and third chapter. You could have Cersei 1 as dealing with the aftermath of the double murder - see Cersei witness the establishment of the new status quo in KL - Mace taking the government into his own hands fully, him and Randyll worsening her house arrest, moving her from her quarters in Maegor's to a tower cell, Cersei becoming aware of the Aegon problem, etc. She and Qyburn coming to the conclusion that Cersei has to leave (with Tommen/Myrcella) if she wants to save her life/power because they might conclude that the Tyrells were behind Kevan/Pycelle's murder. Cersei 2 then includes the trial-by-combat which will, in turn, provide Cersei with the opportunity to flee because it will take place at the Great Sept rather than the Red Keep.

News about Euron's victory over the Redwyne fleet might arrive via raven in KL between Cersei 1 & 2 triggering Cersei/Qyburn's decision that they will approach Euron to forge an alliance (I think it is necessary for her to make the decision to approach Euron with this since a Cersei who is effectively captured by Euron's Ironborn against her will is less likely to consider making an alliance). The only possible way Cersei can escape KL without the risk of being (re-)captured very quickly would be by ship. Overland would mean that they move too slowly and that they would have to cross enemy territory (the Riverlands) which they could only with a large retinue which Cersei simply would not have since she is going to flee.

Cersei's meeting with Euron on the Arbor as I imagine it could then take place in Cersei 4, say. That, in turn, means she could arrive at Casterly Rock in Cersei 6 if she doesn't spend a lot of time on the Arbor/with Euron. If they are able to make a deal very quickly - which is certainly possibly since they could seal their deal by having a wedding - there is no reason that Cersei couldn't continue for the West quickly thereafter. And it would make sense for Euron/Cersei to have her raise another army of Westermen for a land-based attack whilst Euron eventually moves his armada up the Narrow Sea to attack KL from the sea. If they play their cards well neither the Tyrells nor Aegon have to learn about their alliance before it is too late.

The problem with the whole thing there is to coordinate the time it would take Cersei to sail around Westeros with the other events unfolding in TWoW. It could be the book covers sufficient time for Cersei to arrive there and to even raise another army. Preparations for that could already be made in her absence with her sending letters from KL and the Arbor to her cousins. And thinking about that - the murder of Kevan will probably cause uproar in the West all by itself, so Cersei's castellan Damion might have already called the banners and assembled another army when she shows up. Even more so if/when the situation in the Riverlands turns from bad to worse (Genna and Emmon being slaughtered at Riverrun, etc.).

6-7 Cersei chapters for TWoW don't seem to be too much.

Of course, if Cersei lingers in KL for whatever reason then all those bets are off. But I don't think she will want to do that, nor do I think that Aegon's people will postpone their attack in KL for long.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Lord Varys

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

11 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

 @Lord Varys and I have been going back and forth over the past few years about if Cersei will ally herself with Euron before or after she gets to Castery Rock; I personally think that the Greyjoy-Lannister alliance won't happen until after Cersei makes it back to Casterly Rock in A Dream of Spring. However, if Lord Varys' predictions are more in line with what's going to happen, then the book would end with Cersei either leaving King's Landing or encountering Euron at sea.

I'd think Cersei's got to have something to offer Euron and I'm  not really sure what that would be if she isn't back at the rock and in control of her House -assuming that she's been split from Tommen or Tommen is no longer a part of the equation in KL. I'm not one to dispute Lord Varys lightly though, I'm sure he's thought about that too.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He certainly doesn't. But then - George isn't the kind of writer who produces really great material in a first or second draft. If you read his outlines or whatever earlier versions of chapters we do have then this becomes pretty clear. Some of George's best work are the result of multiple rewrites...

Yes, but surely this can't go on forever? If the story is never good enough for publishing, then it will never be published. 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

I'd think Cersei's got to have something to offer Euron and I'm  not really sure what that would be if she isn't back at the rock and in control of her House -assuming that she's been split from Tommen or Tommen is no longer a part of the equation in KL. I'm not one to dispute Lord Varys lightly though, I'm sure he's thought about that too.

My idea is that Tommen might die during Cersei's escape in the wake of the trial-by-combat. I actually think Cersei is going to win-lose her trial. Qyburn's creature will, of course, make short work out of the Faith's champion but in the wake of the duel the creature's actual nature and identity will be revealed - say, by way of the other guy knocking off Ser Robert's head, thus showing the rotting face and head of Gregor Clegane to all people present. Not only will this raise the ire of the (perhaps then) present Nymeria (and incognito among the Faith) Tyene Sand ... but also the High Septon and his sparrows - the idea that you can kind of cheat the Seven in a trial-by-combat by having an undead monstrosity win your trials-by-combat for your is somewhat naive.

Thus I think the result of the trial will in fact result in His High Holiness declaring that the Seven actually view Cersei as guilty of regicide, etc. and that all of her children are indeed spawns of innocent with no claims to the throne. All that should result in considerable commotion outside the Great Sept, resulting in open fighting - and opportunity Cersei and Qyburn might use to try to abduct Tommen and/or Myrcella.

I don't think Cersei will get either of her children out of KL - her grief/anger might be increased, though, if her actions cause Tommen's accidental death in the fighting. He could be mortally injured, say, and then later die in her arms on the ship. Myrcella would make more sense as either falling in Aegon's hands at Storm's End or as the last weak 'Baratheon pretender' trying to oppose Aegon's rise to the throne. She would be a complete Tyrell puppet, put on the throne in the wake of Mace using Tyrell swords to restore the peace in the city in the wake of the conflict. The parallel here could be Myrcella as a kind of child version of Argella Durrandon who cannot really keep any semblance of power and legitimacy after Aegon's forces defeat (a huge bulk of) the Tyrell forces at Storm's End, resulting in the Kingslanders opening their gates to Aegon without siege or battle once he comes knocking at the doors.

Myrcella could end up as Aegon's first wife - an PR attempt at a peaceful transition of power - and/or she might end up like Elia Martell and her children - or like Jaehaera Targaryen (the latter would be the way to go if she is made Aegon's queen for a time).

But Cersei has much and more offer to Euron even if her children are (all) dead or out of her grasp. She is a dowager queen of Westeros and as such she has a very weak claim to the throne herself. Being married to a queen will at more luster to Euron's kingship. Cersei also is the richest person in Westeros, a great lady in her own right, and one of the few great magnates whose strength is far from spent at that point. She can raise another army large enough to take on Aegon and/or the Tyrells. She would also provide Euron with a much needed foothold/ally on Westerosi soil. Euron crushing the Redwyne fleet will help him to consolidate his position in the waters/coastal region of the Reach. But people further inland will continue to oppose him, especially the Lords of the Reach who very much hate those Ironborn. Even if the Redwynes and Hightowers make a deal with Euron - which I expect - such a deal would only last as long as Euron is in a position of strength. Which he will not be for much longer if he continues his campaign to conquer and hold the Iron Throne. A single defeat or non-victory could quickly result in whatever Reach lords he might get on his side to abandon him. Hell, even his own Ironborn might turn against him if he shows any weakness.

So if he is married to richest, most powerful lady of Westeros, and a queen at that, his prestige among his people will rise immensely - and he will have military resources to throw at his enemies he would never be able to use otherwise.

Vice versa, Euron is now Cersei's only way to get back at her enemies. And all her enemies will be Euron's, too. The Tyrells are his enemies already, and Aegon and the Dornish will be, too, once they are both rivals for the Iron Throne.

3 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Yes, but surely this can't go on forever? If the story is never good enough for publishing, then it will never be published. 

Sure enough. I just wanted to point out that George really isn't the guy whose first or second draft we actually want to read.

Just think how bad Dany's plot is in the original outline for AGoT.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Just think how bad Dany's plot is in the original outline for AGoT.

I actually didn't think it was that bad, and found it pretty similar to what we got in the book, aside from slight changes in Dany's motivation.

Heck, apart from the Jon/Arya/Tyrion love triangle and Jaime being a one dimensional villain, I thought the 1993 outline was pretty okay overall, and would mind reading that trilogy if it was ever published. With those few tweaks, of course.

Although that might just be me.  

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

My idea is that Tommen might die during Cersei's escape in the wake of the trial-by-combat. I actually think Cersei is going to win-lose her trial. Qyburn's creature will, of course, make short work out of the Faith's champion but in the wake of the duel the creature's actual nature and identity will be revealed - say, by way of the other guy knocking off Ser Robert's head, thus showing the rotting face and head of Gregor Clegane to all people present.

If that's not Falyse's head that rolls out of hte helmet I'm going to be a little bit disappointed.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Myrcella could end up as Aegon's first wife - an PR attempt at a peaceful transition of power - and/or she might end up like Elia Martell and her children - or like Jaehaera Targaryen (the latter would be the way to go if she is made Aegon's queen for a time).

But Cersei has much and more offer to Euron even if her children are (all) dead or out of her grasp. She is a dowager queen of Westeros and as such she has a very weak claim to the throne herself. Being married to a queen will at more luster to Euron's kingship. Cersei also is the richest person in Westeros, a great lady in her own right, and one of the few great magnates whose strength is far from spent at that point. She can raise another army large enough to take on Aegon and/or the Tyrells. She would also provide Euron with a much needed foothold/ally on Westerosi soil.

Do you think there's a chance that Cersei and Myrcella find themselves married to rival pretenders at the same time?  For any house but Lannister I would think this too chaotic to actually happen, but Cersei's Lannisters are kind of a shit show.

[EggBlue]

I'm hoping that HoTD's Golden Globe would be such a positive development that George enjoys Winds more and finishes it faster... is it false hope?

[Gilbert Green]

56 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

I'm hoping that HoTD's Golden Globe would be such a positive development that George enjoys Winds more and finishes it faster... is it false hope?

Only time will tell.  But a thought that crossed my mind is that if HotD makes a ton of money and is a huge success, HBO and his publisher both are going to want him to finish F&B part 2.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I actually didn't think it was that bad, and found it pretty similar to what we got in the book, aside from slight changes in Dany's motivation.

It is the detail that made Dany's story interesting there - Drogo being an actually complex character and not some clichéd villain, the romance, the fact that Dany didn't just stumble on a dragon egg somewhere in the wilderness, etc.

You can also compare the silly original downfall of the Starks to the complex Fall of Winterfell, Red Wedding and the Frey/Bolton plots. They certainly slowed the overall plot down ... but having the Lannisters as the only villains would have made this a very small and simple story all things considered.

1 hour ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

If that's not Falyse's head that rolls out of hte helmet I'm going to be a little bit disappointed.

I jokingly put forth that idea, too (alternatively Ser Robert might have Falyse's private parts now, for some reason) ... but it is actually not very likely. If Qyburn had removed Gregor's head they would have sent it to Sunspear ... but they clearly did not. They just sent a skull claiming it was Gregor's ... making it very likely it wasn't his head at all. We also have no idea yet what kind of an undead creature George wants the Qyborg to be - if he plans on having a Sandor/Gregor confrontation eventually it wouldn't really do if the thing was just some kind of generic evil zombie creature without retaining some aspects or parts of Gregor's original persona and memories - and all that would be definitely gone if he no longer had his own head.

It is rather likely that Qyburn used up Falyse's blood to keep Gregor alive long enough to continue with his spells. Or he may have used some of her flesh to patch up the parts of Gregor's decaying body which were lost to the poison.

1 hour ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

Do you think there's a chance that Cersei and Myrcella find themselves married to rival pretenders at the same time?  For any house but Lannister I would think this too chaotic to actually happen, but Cersei's Lannisters are kind of a shit show.

Not sure if it would have to be at the same time. Myrcella's life/reign/queenship could be over so soon that she is dead before Cersei actually marries Euron ... but I'd have no problem with that idea. Especially since, as I indicated, Cersei and Euron would likely keep their pact and marriage a secret for the time being. That way they could attack the same target(s) from land and sea without their enemies actually expected a coordinated attack. Once Euron controls the Arbor it shouldn't be hard for him to control the information flow from the island, so if Cersei's ship were to land and eventually leave there, they might be able to keep that a secret. Not to mention that Cersei herself would have to take considerable efforts to obscure how exactly she fled the city. I'd assume that Qyburn will reveal to her and the readership that he already made preparations for them to flee the city by ship since the day Cersei was first arrested by the High Septon.

Qyburn's own position also gets more and more precarious, after all. Whilst the regency remained in Lannister hands he still had a chance to ingratiate himself with Kevan or at least remain in good standing with him since he could kind of prove that he had always been loyal to Cersei, Tommen, and House Lannister. But if all the power shifts to the Tyrells - as it should now - Qyburn's days are numbered in light of his direct involvement in the plot against Margaery. Even Pycelle started to fear for his life in the wake of his apparent testimony against Margaery.

That is also one of the many reasons why Cersei must fear for her life even if she would not conclude in her paranoia that the Tyrells had Kevan/Pycelle murdered. She knows that the Tyrells must know that she is the one behind the plot against Margaery. And regardless how Margaery's trial goes - the Tyrells won't allow her to get away with that. If Tommen's government is in Mace's hands - as it is right now - they can destroy her very easily.

The only chance they have is to make a tactical retreat to regroup. If they would be staying they would either end up imprisoned or killed.

[EggBlue]

18 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Only time will tell.  But a thought that crossed my mind is that if HotD makes a ton of money and is a huge success, HBO and his publisher both are going to want him to finish F&B part 2.

you're probably right .... but hopefully, they push him to finish Winds first and then move on to FnB2 . winds could be a huge publicity... . they already have enough material for 3-4 seasons after all and even if they wish to continue , Regency could be 2 more seasons . 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is the detail that made Dany's story interesting there - Drogo being an actually complex character and not some clichéd villain, the romance, the fact that Dany didn't just stumble on a dragon egg somewhere in the wilderness, etc.

You can also compare the silly original downfall of the Starks to the complex Fall of Winterfell, Red Wedding and the Frey/Bolton plots. They certainly slowed the overall plot down ... but having the Lannisters as the only villains would have made this a very small and simple story all things considered.

I mean, it was supposed to be a trilogy after all.

Wasn't there an even earlier version of the story, where Targaryens could telepathically shoot lightning and didn't have dragons, or something to that effect? That would indeed have been bad, I admit.

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

I'm hoping that HoTD's Golden Globe would be such a positive development that George enjoys Winds more and finishes it faster... is it false hope?

The best positive development has been fan reaction to HotD.  It was energizing and exciting and that is certainly most important to George.  Winning some awards would be icing on the cake; but not the most important development for him.  

My sense is that George has had a heavy heart for some time and realizing how ready fans are to embrace him; can only be uplifting.  Nobody can hurry his process and constant pressure might as well be a hindrance to that end.  I don't know if he will get the book out any faster; but certainly he would be more energized, inspired and determined.  And that's a better frame of mind for creativity.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

18 minutes ago, LynnS said:

The best positive development has been fan reaction to HotD.  It was energizing and exciting and that is certainly most important to George.  Winning some awards would be icing on the cake; but not the most important development for him.  

My sense is that George has had a heavy heart for some time and realizing how ready fans are to embrace him; can only be uplifting.  Nobody can hurry his process and constant pressure might as well be a hindrance to that end.  I don't know if he will get the book out any faster; but certainly he would be more energized, inspired and determined.  And that's a better frame of mind for creativity.

That might be true in theory, but the last blog post where he mentioned Winds hasn't been encouraging.

[LynnS]

48 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

That might be true in theory, but the last blog post where he mentioned Winds hasn't been encouraging.

If you were George and knew that you would be damned if you mentioned Winds and damned if you didn't; what would you do?  Theoretically speaking.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

If you were George and knew that you would be damned if you mentioned Winds and damned if you didn't; what would you do?  Theoretically speaking.

I would probably just say that I’m working on it and making progress, which is what GRRM himself has been saying for many years.

[butterweedstrover]

Don’t worry, we’ll get an update about his progress right around the HotD season 2 marketing push.

[Cas Stark]

26 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

Don’t worry, we’ll get an update about his progress right around the HotD season 2 marketing push.

You said a mouthful there.