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"Only 500 pages to go" for Winds of Winter


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On 12/28/2022 at 10:27 AM, Tyrosh Lannister said:

TWOW = ~1500 pages

been 11 years and he says 500 pages to go.

So 1000 pages have been done.

1000 pages in 11 years.

~5 more years until TWOW then

Ha... not really..

I don't think he progressed much or at all until the show was over. I think seeing the show and its divergent storylines/versions of his plot points and the response to them distracted him and made him rethink and scrap and change some things. When asked about the burning of Shireen back during season 5, he said he would not talk about things he hadn't written yet and "may not write". He's also talked about coming up with new twists and that one of them would be impossible in the show because of what it had done with the character concerned.

He is a gardener, after all.

Some people think he only really started writing more heavily during the lock down.

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15 hours ago, Annara Snow said:

Ha... not really..

I don't think he progressed much or at all until the show was over. I think seeing the show and its divergent storylines/versions of his plot points and the response to them distracted him and made him rethink and scrap and change some things. When asked about the burning of Shireen back during season 5, he said he would not talk about things he hadn't written yet and "may not write". He's also talked about coming up with new twists and that one of them would be impossible in the show because of what it had done with the character concerned.

He is a gardener, after all.

Some people think he only really started writing more heavily during the lock down.

I don't expect the events of WINDS, with a few exceptions, will have much to do with what happened on HBO.

I don't necessarily assume GRRM told D&D all his secrets.  If he did keep back a few secrets, GRRM might be reluctant to say so outright for fear of being accused of sabotaging the show or failing to promote the show.  I don't suspect he is guilty of such things anyway; but I can see the accusation being made if the books and the show turn out very different.  

In TV land, the goal is always short-term: a successful next season.  Whether, in the process, one writes oneself into a hole one cannot write oneself out of the season after that, is a tertiary concern at best. 

He is now hinting that the books and the show will turn out  very different, but at the same time (and in accordance with his contractual obligations) doing so while casting as few aspersions as possible on the HBO show.

At some point the butterfly effect would have caused the show to reach a stage where revealing any secrets would be irrelevant.  At this point, I can see GRRM shrugging and keeping his secrets to himself.  As far as helping them with the next season, one season at a time, I think he gave them all the help he reasonably could.

Meanwhile, GRRM has short-term goals of his own -- which is always the next book in the series.  He too may have written himself into corners he has trouble writing himself out of.

Of course, he does have the right to change his mind about some things he has told D&D, and no doubt this has happened to some extent.  But I suspect it is mainly the butterfly effect is the main factor driving the two storylines apart.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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Let's be real, D&D did not adapt AFFC and ADWD very well; in fact one could say they did a horrible job. I know, I know, too many new characters, budget restraints and also not enough Sansa, Arya and Bran chapters to adapt. Whatever excuse you want to make, the point still stands, D&D did not adapt those two books very well. So from that alone, one could imagine WoW will be quite different, from what season 6 of the show became.   

Edited by sifth
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1 hour ago, sifth said:

Let's be real, D&D did not adapt AFFC and ADWD very well; in fact one could say they did a horrible job. I know, I know, too many new characters, budget restraints and also not enough Sansa, Arya and Bran chapters to adapt. Whatever excuse you want to make, the point still stands, D&D did not adapt those two books very well. So from that alone, one could imagine WoW will be quite different, from what season 6 of the show became.   

According to Joanna Robinson from Vanity Fair, D&D came to the conclusion that the Aegon storyline “wasn’t worth their time” after their big meeting with GRRM in 2013.

What that means for Winds remains to be seen.

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1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

According to Joanna Robinson from Vanity Fair, D&D came to the conclusion that the Aegon storyline “wasn’t worth their time” after their big meeting with GRRM in 2013.

What that means for Winds remains to be seen.

They dropped the Lady Stone Heart story as well. On top of that they completely changed many of the characters story arcs, like Tyrion's, Brienne's and Jamie...............remember when they sent him to Dorne, lol

Worst of all though was Euron. The guy is a completely different person on the show, when compared to the books and not for the better. They removed all of his supernatural and mysterious elements and instead just made him evil Jack Sparrow.

Edited by sifth
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23 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

If he did keep back a few secrets, GRRM might be reluctant to say so outright for fear of being accused of sabotaging the show or failing to promote the show.  I don't suspect he is guilty of such things anyway

In what way can you compartmentalize the fact that (if true) Martin deliberately withheld information about his series to the showrunners he selected to adapt his material after failing or even out right refusing to produce more viable chapters for the show to continue without it being sabotage?

Isn't that what it is, why beat around the bush? If true it would be sabotage. Luckily for Martin I don't think that is the case and I believe GOT and ASOIAF will have exceedingly similar circumstances (much to the fandoms disappointment). 

Reading ADWD it is clear (to me) that Cersei is being set up for a return to power with Robert Strong as her tool for vengeance. Young Griff is to face the same demise as Aegon VI and Connington will only fail his surrogate son by larping as Tywin and sacking KL only to turn potential allies away and possibly strengthen waning Lannister authority. 

Meanwhile the Tyrells will be just as impotent as they were in the show. Mace will lose at Storm's end (as is being highly foreshadowed) and their homeland will be pillaged by Euron.  

That has been what is happening so far, the Greyjoys and The Golden Company aren't posing an existential threat to Cersei, but an existential threat to her enemies. And before the show many were willing to admit that these late additions to the character roster will play as linchpins to get the major characters in conflict with each other. 

Instead, due to the poor reception, it has become the default position by fans to assume Cersei (a major character) will be replaced as the central antagonist by some non-POV tertiary figure invented late in the game rather than him just being another literary tool to position Dany/Cersei into their inevitable conflict.   

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36 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

Instead, due to the poor reception, it has become the default position by fans to assume Cersei (a major character) will be replaced as the central antagonist by some non-POV tertiary figure invented late in the game rather than him just being another literary tool to position Dany/Cersei into their inevitable conflict.   

For what it's worth, GRRM said around 2012-2013 that "many people will sit on the Iron Throne before everything is said and done", so it's very possible that Aegon will become king and Cersei will meet up with Euron after fleeing to Casterly Rock, or something like that.

Also, we know that GRRM planned to do a second Dance of the Dragons, he talked about it in 2002 or thereabout. I assumed this means that half of Westeros would support Aegon and the other half would support Dany. The problem is that it would be very hard to execute with only two books left, so maybe it was this that D&D had issues with.

Edited by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy
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51 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

In what way can you compartmentalize the fact that (if true) Martin deliberately withheld information about his series to the showrunners he selected to adapt his material after failing or even out right refusing to produce more viable chapters for the show to continue without it being sabotage?

Isn't that what it is, why beat around the bush? If true it would be sabotage. Luckily for Martin I don't think that is the case and I believe GOT and ASOIAF will have exceedingly similar circumstances (much to the fandoms disappointment). 

Reading ADWD it is clear (to me) that Cersei is being set up for a return to power with Robert Strong as her tool for vengeance. Young Griff is to face the same demise as Aegon VI and Connington will only fail his surrogate son by larping as Tywin and sacking KL only to turn potential allies away and possibly strengthen waning Lannister authority. 

Meanwhile the Tyrells will be just as impotent as they were in the show. Mace will lose at Storm's end (as is being highly foreshadowed) and their homeland will be pillaged by Euron.  

That has been what is happening so far, the Greyjoys and The Golden Company aren't posing an existential threat to Cersei, but an existential threat to her enemies. And before the show many were willing to admit that these late additions to the character roster will play as linchpins to get the major characters in conflict with each other. 

Instead, due to the poor reception, it has become the default position by fans to assume Cersei (a major character) will be replaced as the central antagonist by some non-POV tertiary figure invented late in the game rather than him just being another literary tool to position Dany/Cersei into their inevitable conflict.   

I mean I don't even know how you can compare the two IP's after the 4th season. Not sure if you ever saw/read Fullmetal Alchemist, but to me it seems like a very similar situation. The first FMA tv show, only had about 1/3 of the source material out when it was made, so after a certain point it had to basically create it's own story for the second half of the show; with the authors approval.............naturally, lol

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1 hour ago, sifth said:

I mean I don't even know how you can compare the two IP's after the 4th season. Not sure if you ever saw/read Fullmetal Alchemist, but to me it seems like a very similar situation. The first FMA tv show, only had about 1/3 of the source material out when it was made, so after a certain point it had to basically create it's own story for the second half of the show; with the authors approval.............naturally, lol

They're different post-season 4. But broad strokes it is a question of who the final combatants will be. 

Dorne can be very different, but if the Dornish end up losing none of that really matters for the end game.  

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2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

For what it's worth, GRRM said around 2012-2013 that "many people will sit on the Iron Throne before everything is said and done", so it's very possible that Aegon will become king and Cersei will meet up with Euron after fleeing to Casterly Rock, or something like that.

Also, we know that GRRM planned to do a second Dance of the Dragons, he talked about it in 2002 or thereabout. I assumed this means that half of Westeros would support Aegon and the other half would support Dany. The problem is that it would be very hard to execute with only two books left, so maybe it was this that D&D had issues with.

If Young Griff, Cersei, and Dany all sit on the throne before Bran's ascension that would constitute "many people" relative to the rest of the series. Three new regents after Tommen will be as many as there has been the entire series (Robert, Joffrey, and Tommen).

Myrcella might actually rule as well if she isn't already dead. I'm not sure, and I doubt she'd survive very long anyways but it is always possible. 

I think what I disagree with is the order or sequence rather than the players involved. Cersei already has her trial coming up and plans to bring down the septas. I don't see how after Kevan's death she'll just slink back to the Rock. Most likely she stays, overcomes the trial, and uses Connington's attack to put herself on the throne (something she would otherwise have no legitimacy to do without children). 

Where the show messed up is not having Connington burn the city and replacing it with Cersei blowing up the sept herself. It makes her ascension seem dumb. But I 100% don't think the final conflict will be Dany vs. YG.

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2 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

In what way can you compartmentalize the fact that (if true) Martin deliberately withheld information about his series to the showrunners he selected to adapt his material after failing or even out right refusing to produce more viable chapters for the show to continue without it being sabotage?

Isn't that what it is, why beat around the bush? If true it would be sabotage.

If I were inclined to accuse GRRM of betraying anybody, it would start and end with whether GRRM had somehow disappointed us book fans by not finishing the series in a reasonable time.  Which would bring us back to Neil Gaiman and his "entitlement" charge.  But, in any event, his contractual obligations his HBO are not my concern.  As a book fan, I may have no rights, but I'd still rather he work for me.

But I am sure that HBO made sure that GRRM had an obligation to promote the show and not badmouth the show.  While at the same time reserving for themselves complete creative control.  I'm not sure you appreciate the position that puts GRRM in.  How can he possibly respond to these (hypothetical) accusations?

Also, if it were easy for GRRM to tell D&D "all his plans", it would also be easy for GRRM to write the books.  So I'm guessing that's not so easy as you assume.  That becomes especially true as the series and books start to diverge.  It is, I am sure, hard enough for GRRM to keep track of everything he has written, without having to keep track of all D&D's changes as well.

I think D&D were focused on having a successful season one season at a time.  I think GRRM gave them all the help he reasonably could by (1) giving him the books to adapt; and (2) giving them due warning whenever a planned change from the books would result in a butterfly effect. 

For instance, I'm sure he warned them that Stoneheart, among other things, was important.

2 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

Luckily for Martin I don't think that is the case and I believe GOT and ASOIAF will have exceedingly similar circumstances (much to the fandoms disappointment). 

Certainly, fandom will be disappointed one way or another.  One possible reason for D&D to ignore many of GRRM's plans, even to the extent that GRRM may have revealed them, was that they were seen as unpopular.

For example, the Stoneheart development was something not generally seen as not particularly popular with fans. 

2 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

Reading ADWD it is clear (to me) that Cersei is being set up for a return to power with Robert Strong as her tool for vengeance.

Safe enough bet.

2 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

Young Griff is to face the same demise as Aegon VI and Connington will only fail his surrogate son by larping as Tywin and sacking KL only to turn potential allies away and possibly strengthen waning Lannister authority. 

Young Griff and Connington wasn't even in the TV show, as I recall.  Neither was Frog.  I think Frog and Young Griff are interrelated plot points.  Both entirely dropped by the TV show. 

2 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

Meanwhile the Tyrells will be just as impotent as they were in the show.

Nothing going on with Loras on Dragonstone, then?  The show did not do much with Loras, as I recall.

2 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

Mace will lose at Storm's end (as is being highly foreshadowed)

It is more-or less confirmed in the books that Young Griff will take Storms End.  And we know he has "friends in the Reach", though I don't know if Mace is one of them.

None of which has much to do with the TV show.  I guess your idea is that if they were not in the TV show, they cannot possible serve an important role in the books.  But I have severe doubts about this kind of logic.

2 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

and their homeland will be pillaged by Euron.  

Not in the books, he won't.  At least no more than he has done already.  He's just passing through, on his way to Slaver's Bay.  That he is launching some major attack on the Reach is a strange fan delusion devoid of any real textual support.

But none of this is likely to have much to do with the show.  GRRM has singled out Euron as a character who is hugely different in the show than in the books.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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22 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

If Young Griff, Cersei, and Dany all sit on the throne before Bran's ascension that would constitute "many people" relative to the rest of the series. Three new regents after Tommen will be as many as there has been the entire series (Robert, Joffrey, and Tommen).

My guess is, Bran will never ascend.  Bran merely steps into the shoes of a character that was cut from the HBO show. 

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44 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

GRRM specifically told D&D that Bran will be king in the books. 

GRRM specifically kept a stony silence.  So did D&D.

What I think you MEANT to say is that some actor said that David and Dan said that GRRM said that "Bran would be king".   And he did not even allegedly say "king in the books"; nor "king of Westeros".

If Bran does not end up as King of Westeros in the books, you will not be able to prove, from this game of telephone, that anyone lied to anyone else. 

Edited by Gilbert Green
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Just a side note: the Gaiman quote is really dumb. Neil is very good at gaslighting his audience with emotionally charged statements that bulldoze over any nuance and kills the potential for discussion. He is good at tweet sized messages but otherwise the stuff he says is worthless.  

Read the blog post where he said "George is not your bitch" or whatever. It wasn't from some entitled fan demanding answers after years of delay, it was a very respectful question about the nuances of non-contractual obligations between readers and authors and to what extent they might emerge in a practical setting. 

George isn't writing a series of books with their own self-contained narrative, he is writing one sprawling novel split into different volumes with no clear beginning, middle, or end. 

That doesn't mean he is our bitch or we should demand he finish, he can give up. But he monetized an unfinished story people thought was going somewhere, and gaslighting consumers into thinking they are abusive for even expecting a continuation is garbage. 

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5 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

Instead, due to the poor reception, it has become the default position by fans to assume Cersei (a major character) will be replaced as the central antagonist by some non-POV tertiary figure invented late in the game rather than him just being another literary tool to position Dany/Cersei into their inevitable conflict.   

One more thing about this; We have to remember that ADWD wasn't supposed to come out six years after AFFC. The chapter where Tyrion meets Connington and Young Griff was written at the same time as Feast. 

So Aegon was technically introduced at the same time as Euron, who very clearly is a central antagonist.

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1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

One more thing about this; We have to remember that ADWD wasn't supposed to come out six years after AFFC. The chapter where Tyrion meets Connington and Young Griff was written at the same time as Feast. 

So Aegon was technically introduced at the same time as Euron, who very clearly is a central antagonist.

I think post ASOS is late in the game. There is no evidence Martin had even thought up either of these characters before then which makes there introduction seem less like a vital aspect to the overall story and more like appendages to reorient the narrative. 

Or maybe he just wrote in a bunch of new characters because he was tired of the old ones. Either way I don't see YG being an important part of Dany's journey. 

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George had a meeting with D&D around the time of pre-production for Game of Thrones season 4 in which they mainly discussed in broad strokes what would happen in The Winds of Winter and in A Dream of Spring. So D&D had some sort of outline and were aware, among other things, of the endpoints of the main characters in the book series.

D&D were also given the manuscripts of certain The Winds of Winter chapters. A sentence of dialogue from "Mercy" was used in the first episode of season 4 (The character "Tickler" during the Arya XII ASOS chapter was replaced by Raff the Sweetling in the show). I assume D&D got at least all the chapters originally planned for A Dance with Dragons that were later cut, and possibly some newer chapters George wrote from 2012-2013.

So D&D had obtained quite a lot of information The Winds of Winter during that meeting. I don't think George was deliberately withholding anything.

Around that time, probably a little later, George was also working on the script of The Lion and the Rose. The draft included cameos for Osmund Kettleback, Penny and Arys Oakheart. There were also hints with plans for a Ramsay/fArya wedding and Jaime's Riverlands storyline. All this, and more was scrapped. D&D had the final say on George's scripts.

The changes that were made to that script showed that D&D had no intention of adapting FeastDance, and I always get the impression that George was not aware of those plans until very late. The Lion and the Rose was the last script George wrote and after that he became less and less involved in the show. He didn't even bother to read the scripts of the later seasons.

It became practically impossible to follow the original outline in the show because of the adaptional choices D&D made during season 5/6 (resulting in the butterfly effect). I highly doubt that George was giving away much new information to D&D after season 4 about what would happen in the ASOIAF books. Many storylines and characters in the show from that point on were no longer similar to their book counterparts, making certain future plot points from the books irrelevant to the show.

George has also changed plans for The Winds of Winter several times since 2014, including in 2015-2016, regarding a character who is "dead in the show, but alive in the books." We can assume that the outline is now outdated and that the chapters that D&D got at the time will have been rewritten or revised by now.

George has claimed many times that books will be very different than the show, but Benioff has also said something similar several times, for example:


"People are talking about whether the books are going to be spoiled - and it's really not true," Benioff told EW. "So much of what we're doing diverges from the books at this point. And while there are certain key elements that will be the same, we're not going to talk so much about that - and I don't think George is either. People are going to be very surprised when they read the books after the show. They're quite divergent in so many respects for the remainder of the show."

Briefly: George and D&D had a meeting around 2013 in which, among other things, an outline was made with what happens in the later books. Both George and D&D later deviated from the original outline and the end result may be very different.

Edited by $erPounce
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11 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

I think post ASOS is late in the game. There is no evidence Martin had even thought up either of these characters before then which makes there introduction seem less like a vital aspect to the overall story and more like appendages to reorient the narrative. 

That's not true. Euron is mentioned in ACoK several times, and GRRM heavily implied in an Q&A that out of Rhaegar's two children, only Rhaenys was dead beyond a doubt. That Q&A was from August 6, 2000. ASoS was released on August 8, 2000.

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