"Only 500 pages to go" for Winds of Winter

[Werthead]

15 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

I think post ASOS is late in the game. There is no evidence Martin had even thought up either of these characters before then which makes there introduction seem less like a vital aspect to the overall story and more like appendages to reorient the narrative. 

Or maybe he just wrote in a bunch of new characters because he was tired of the old ones. Either way I don't see YG being an important part of Dany's journey. 

Euron is repeatedly mentioned through the first three books in the series, especially in the second and third ones.

Aegon/fAegon has clearly been on the cards since Book 1 when GRRM mentioned that Baby Aegon's face was unrecognisable a clear dozen times, and then pretty much put on the table by the House of the Undying in ACoK. Among the very first fan theories discussed on the internet, after R+L=J, was when the fake Targaryen pretender is going to show up. And the Second Dance of Dragons between two Targaryens (or one Targ and one fake Targ) always made more sense as to why it was going to be called that rather than a name for Dany's invasion of Westeros (for which the Second Conquest would make more sense).

So yes, there was quite a bit of evidence that both Euron and fAegon were on the cards from Day One.

The problem is that I don't think George can afford to take the time to give those characters their original due, when both would be key players from the start of Book 2 of the trilogy outline, so they'd be key players in almost 70% of the story. Assuming the series stays at 7 books, they're going to fall short of 50% in Euron's case and maybe 40% in fAegon's (although that may change if Winds and Spring end up being as massive as they potentially could be), and it feels like a lot of the ideas being set up can't be executed properly without the series expanding impractically out of control.

[butterweedstrover]

35 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

That's not true. Euron is mentioned in ACoK several times, and GRRM heavily implied in an Q&A that out of Rhaegar's two children, only Rhaenys was dead beyond a doubt. That Q&A was from August 6, 2000. ASoS was released on August 8, 2000.

I meant Connington and Young Griff. 

[butterweedstrover]

42 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Euron is repeatedly mentioned through the first three books in the series, especially in the second and third ones.

Aegon/fAegon has clearly been on the cards since Book 1 when GRRM mentioned that Baby Aegon's face was unrecognisable a clear dozen times, and then pretty much put on the table by the House of the Undying in ACoK. Among the very first fan theories discussed on the internet, after R+L=J, was when the fake Targaryen pretender is going to show up. And the Second Dance of Dragons between two Targaryens (or one Targ and one fake Targ) always made more sense as to why it was going to be called that rather than a name for Dany's invasion of Westeros (for which the Second Conquest would make more sense).

So yes, there was quite a bit of evidence that both Euron and fAegon were on the cards from Day One.

The problem is that I don't think George can afford to take the time to give those characters their original due, when both would be key players from the start of Book 2 of the trilogy outline, so they'd be key players in almost 70% of the story. Assuming the series stays at 7 books, they're going to fall short of 50% in Euron's case and maybe 40% in fAegon's (although that may change if Winds and Spring end up being as massive as they potentially could be), and it feels like a lot of the ideas being set up can't be executed properly without the series expanding impractically out of control.

I wasn't talking about Euron. 

Aegon VI and Young Griff are different. 

He did seed the idea of baby Aegon being alive, but whoever that is that doesn't have to do with the child we meet in ADWD. He is an entirely different character if only inspired by the idea of a living Aegon certainly not Aegon himself. 

Had George thought of this fake as part of Varys or illyrio's schemes he would have been referenced in some way, even if not by name. According to Varys in ADWD the plan was to make Young Griff king but then they raised Viserys to rule during that same time. 

They were literally talking about it in the dungeons and no hint of Connington or this child were given. Things had to turn out spectacularly wrong for him to be introduced in ways Varys/illyrio could not have predicted, from Viserys death to Drogo's infection to the hatching of the Dragons. 

Connington had zero place in any story. Ned or Robert might have mentioned him once but they never did, it was completely a decision made later in the game. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by butterweedstrover

[Gilbert Green]

38 minutes ago, $erPounce said:

George had a meeting with D&D around the time of pre-production for Game of Thrones season 4 in which they mainly discussed in broad strokes what would happen in The Winds of Winter and in A Dream of Spring.

It would be nice to have been a fly on that wall.  But I was not there, and neither were you. 

But what can certainly be ruled out is a gigantic mega-session where GRRM plugs their brains into his own brain with cables, and downloads into their heads every creative idea he ever had for the continuation of the series.

And while I don't doubt that ultimate issues may have been touched on, I am also sure that D&D's primary concern, as always in TV, was a successful Season 4.   Any other cans could be kicked down the road.

38 minutes ago, $erPounce said:

So D&D had some sort of outline and were aware, among other things, of the endpoints of the main characters in the book series.

I'm sure he told them something.  It seems pointless to speculate as to what, since we were not there.

At this point, it must have been clear to all concerned that the Show and the Books were headed in different directions.

Whether D&D knew or did not know of this or that plot twist is not particularly relevant, if D&D had no intention of going in that direction in any event.

38 minutes ago, $erPounce said:

D&D were also given the manuscripts of certain The Winds of Winter chapters.

This is hardly any more than he has give us, the readers.

38 minutes ago, $erPounce said:

So D&D had obtained quite a lot of information The Winds of Winter during that meeting. I don't think George was deliberately withholding anything.

Don't know what "deliberately withhold" means.  I'm sure both sides were aware that no actual "brain download" had occurred.

I will happily assume that GRRM honestly answered any questions they had.   But it does not follow that they were interested in his answers.

38 minutes ago, $erPounce said:

Around that time, probably a little later, George was also working on the script of The Lion and the Rose. The draft included cameos for Osmund Kettleback, Penny and Arys Oakheart. There were also hints with plans for a Ramsay/fArya wedding and Jaime's Riverlands storyline. All this, and more was scrapped. D&D had the final say on George's scripts.

The changes that were made to that script showed that D&D had no intention of adapting FeastDance, and I always get the impression that George was not aware of those plans until very late. The Lion and the Rose was the last script George wrote and after that he became less and less involved in the show. He didn't even bother to read the scripts of the later seasons.

I agree especially with the bolded part. 

38 minutes ago, $erPounce said:

It became practically impossible to follow the original outline in the show because of the adaptional choices D&D made during season 5/6 (resulting in the butterfly effect). I highly doubt that George was giving away much new information to D&D after season 4 about what would happen in the ASOIAF books. Many storylines and characters in the show from that point on were no longer similar to their book counterparts, making certain future plot points from the books irrelevant to the show.

I agree especially with the bolded part.  But what this implies is, that by the time D&D had any need to know any spoilerish secrets of GRRM, there was no longer any point in telling them.  D&D had already decided to do their own thing.

38 minutes ago, $erPounce said:

George has also changed plans for The Winds of Winter several times since 2014, including in 2015-2016, regarding a character who is "dead in the show, but alive in the books." We can assume that the outline is now outdated and that the chapters that D&D got at the time will have been rewritten or revised by now.

Without knowing what he is talking about, GRRM's talk of changed plans is too vague to be meaningful.

One thought that occurred to me is that this is away of telling the readers that the books will be different, without angrily accusing D&D of not following his creative vision.   By which I do not mean to imply that anything he says is untrue.  Obviously, GRRM has every right to change his mind about things he has not written yet.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

The problem is that I don't think George can afford to take the time to give those characters their original due, when both would be key players from the start of Book 2 of the trilogy outline, so they'd be key players in almost 70% of the story.

To be completely fair, Aegon was not mentioned at all in the 1993 outline.

[Gilbert Green]

34 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

To be completely fair, Aegon was not mentioned at all in the 1993 outline.

No dragons were mentioned either.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

15 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

No dragons were mentioned either.

“The birth of a young dragon will give Daenerys the power to bend the Dothraki to her will”.

[sifth]

3 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

That's not true. Euron is mentioned in ACoK several times, and GRRM heavily implied in an Q&A that out of Rhaegar's two children, only Rhaenys was dead beyond a doubt. That Q&A was from August 6, 2000. ASoS was released on August 8, 2000.

Euron is mentioned in Theon’s first POV chapter and some of his back story is given in his second.

[sifth]

12 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

I wasn't talking about Euron. 

Aegon VI and Young Griff are different. 

He did seed the idea of baby Aegon being alive, but whoever that is that doesn't have to do with the child we meet in ADWD. He is an entirely different character if only inspired by the idea of a living Aegon certainly not Aegon himself. 

Had George thought of this fake as part of Varys or illyrio's schemes he would have been referenced in some way, even if not by name. According to Varys in ADWD the plan was to make Young Griff king but then they raised Viserys to rule during that same time. 

They were literally talking about it in the dungeons and no hint of Connington or this child were given. Things had to turn out spectacularly wrong for him to be introduced in ways Varys/illyrio could not have predicted, from Viserys death to Drogo's infection to the hatching of the Dragons. 

Connington had zero place in any story. Ned or Robert might have mentioned him once but they never did, it was completely a decision made later in the game. 

I actually agree with this. The only foreshadowing we get for Faegon is, that GRRM reminds us in each book that Gregor killed a baby. The only thing else we get is the murmurs dragon, vision Dany gets in the second book. Both of these are very weak evidence for “this was all planned”, but it’s what some people want to believe. 
 

Though no way is Faegon planned in the first book. It’s clear as day, Varys and his partner want Dany and her brother on the throne in that book.

Edited January 16, 2023 by sifth

[Gilbert Green]

4 hours ago, sifth said:

I actually agree with this. The only foreshadowing we get for Faegon is, that GRRM reminds us in each book that Gregor killed a baby. The only thing else we get is the mummurs dragon, vision Dany gets in the second book. Both of these are very week evidence for “this was all planned”, but it’s what some people want to believe. 
 

Though no way is Faegon planned in the first book. It’s clear as day, Varys and his partner want Dany and her brother on the throne in that book.

- The only thing clear from Book 1 is that Varys & Illyrio intend to ally with Khal Drogo.  Dany is only a gift to curry favor with Khal, and she had the bad taste to delay plans by getting pregnant.  Viserys is a victim of Illyrio's manipulation.  The idea that Viserys was intended for the Iron Throne is not inconceivable, and is what Illyrio led Viserys to believe.  But Viserys was already declared in book 1 to be "less than a shadow of a snake" by Illyrio's spy.  Hardly the fellow you want to spearhead an invasion.  It's not impossible that Viserys on the Iron Throne is Illyrio's original plan, but it is hardly "clear as day".

- Book 1 also makes clear that Viserys is a "beggar king" with zero support as a claimant.

- First Aegon head-smash reference is from book 1.

Book 2:

- Varys' "power resides where people believe" riddle.

- Baby Aegon as TPTWP.

- Mummer's Dragon vision

Book 3

- First Blackfyre reference

Edited January 16, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

7 hours ago, sifth said:

It’s clear as day, Varys and his partner want Dany and her brother on the throne in that book.

This is debatable, IMO. Viserys didn’t have much support in Westeros to begin with, and being allied with the Dothraki wouldn’t do him any favours either.

Maybe GRRM deliberately kept things vague because he had several ideas in mind and wasn’t sure which one to go with at that point.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

This is debatable, IMO. Viserys didn’t have much support in Westeros to begin with, and being allied with the Dothraki wouldn’t do him any favours either.

Maybe GRRM deliberately kept things vague because he had several ideas in mind and wasn’t sure which one to go with at that point.

I mean Arya hears Illyrio and Varys plotting alone, in the dark and all the talk is on Dany and her child and how this will effect Drago and his ability to go to war. There's no mention of "the boy" or "their hidden egg".

[sifth]

5 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

- The only thing clear from Book 1 is that Varys & Illyrio intend to ally with Khal Drogo.  Dany is only a gift to curry favor with Khal, and she had the bad taste to delay plans by getting pregnant.  Viserys is a victim of Illyrio's manipulation.  The idea that Viserys was intended for the Iron Throne is not inconceivable, and is what Illyrio led Viserys to believe.  But Viserys was already declared in book 1 to be "less than a shadow of a snake" by Illyrio's spy.  Hardly the fellow you want to spearhead an invasion.  It's not impossible that Viserys on the Iron Throne is Illyrio's original plan, but it is hardly "clear as day".

- Book 1 also makes clear that Viserys is a "beggar king" with zero support as a claimant.

- First Aegon head-smash reference is from book 1.

Book 2:

- Varys' "power resides where people believe" riddle.

- Baby Aegon as TPTWP.

- Mummer's Dragon vision

Book 3

- First Blackfyre reference

See, I agree with most of what you wrote, but if Dany was only a gift, why did Illyrio give her the dragon eggs? We're told many times in that book, that a person could buy their own army with just one egg. That always seemed strange to me.

If Dany and her brother are just decoys, for their "hidden egg", why give Dany the dragon eggs and not Faegon? Heck why not sell the eggs, to buy a bigger army for the invasion? So many things, don't make sense, when you take them into account.

Edited January 16, 2023 by sifth

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

8 minutes ago, sifth said:

I mean Arya hears Illyrio and Varys plotting alone, in the dark and all the talk is on Dany and her child and how this will effect Drago and his ability to go to war. There's no mention of "the boy" or "their hidden egg".

Yes, but it’s not conclusive.

[sifth]

44 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Yes, but it’s not conclusive.

Yea, but knowing GRRM and how he likes to foreshadow stuff, you'd think there would have been at least some hint to Faegon, in this scene. Not just "by the way did you know Gregor, killed a baby", from Ned a few chapters earlier.

I mean just look how he sets up the threat of Euron, from as early as Theon's first chapter.

Edited January 16, 2023 by sifth

[butterweedstrover]

The plan Ilyrio and Varys had in AGOT cannot be integrated with the plan they came up with in ADWD. 

With Young Griff there is no need for Viserys whereas Viserys in actuality was a vital component to their original plot. In the dungeons they mention the need to delay the conflict so the Dothraki could be prepared for the eventual war. 

So what was their plan? Have Viserys and Drogo lose on purpose (destroying the brand name of the Targaryen sigil) or have them win only for a third claimant to come and take the throne (eviscerate their own forces). Why give something so powerful to Daenerys in that case. Even if they didn't believe the eggs would hatch they gave Dany, and by extension Viserys, a powerful tool that might mitigate any military strength of a dragonless Young Griff. 

Unless they were clinically braindead, this was not part of their plan. And there was no way they could (or should) have thought that a thirteen year old Dany would have become stronger after being raped incessantly, watch Viserys die, lose her own child, lose her husband, and then build up an army of slaves instead of heading west thereby giving Young Griff time to grow up and Connington time to build up his own forces. 

I'm sorry, but there was no way this wasn't invented until after ASOS. There is not even an inkling that such a child exists, I don't mean baby Aegon, I mean that blue haired fraud, mummers dragon or no.  

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, sifth said:

I mean Arya hears Illyrio and Varys plotting alone, in the dark and all the talk is on Dany and her child and how this will effect Drago and his ability to go to war. There's no mention of "the boy" or "their hidden egg".

There is only one mention of Dany, and only because she is pregnant, and only because her pregnancy inconveniences theirplans, and the only reason her pregnancy inconveniences her plans is because Drogo cares about this girl and her child more than they do.

[butterweedstrover]

3 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

There is only one mention of Dany, and only because she is pregnant, and only because her pregnancy inconveniences theirplans, and the only reason her pregnancy inconveniences her plans is because Drogo cares about this girl and her child more than they do.

Yes, and how does Drogo invading help their plan with Young Griff? 

The two things (Viserys/Dany and Connington/Young Griff) openly contradict each other. The blue haired boy might have crossed paths with Dany or Viserys at some point if he existed back then, but he didn't. 

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, sifth said:

See, I agree with most of what you wrote, but if Dany was only a gift, why did Illyrio give her the dragon eggs?

Dany is a gift to Drogo, and ultimately, so are the dragon eggs.  By giving them to Dany he also symbolically cements her status as Targaryen Princess.  The eggs are valuable in themselves and delivered in a way that tends to confirm the value and authenticity of Dany.

1 hour ago, sifth said:

We're told many times in that book, that a person could buy their own army with just one egg. That always seemed strange to me.

Ilyrio is buying the Dothraki horde, though not in quite the crude sense that Viserys understands.

1 hour ago, sifth said:

If Dany and her brother are just decoys, for their "hidden egg", why give Dany the dragon eggs and not Faegon?

Why not give Young Griff the dragon eggs?  Because he is buying an army, and Young Griff does not have an army.  Khal Drogo does.

1 hour ago, sifth said:

Heck why not sell the eggs, to buy a bigger army for the invasion?

Because he exchanged them directly for the army and the invasion.

[Gilbert Green]

9 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

Yes, and how does Drogo invading help their plan with Young Griff? 

When Young Griff is ready to invade, Illyrio will call in his favor with Khal Drogo.  Under Dothraki culture, Khal Drogo owes Illyrio a favor, and invading countries is the only job and skill set that Khal Drogo has.

9 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

The two things (Viserys/Dany and Connington/Young Griff) openly contradict each other.

I don't see the contradiction.

9 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

The blue haired boy might have crossed paths with Dany or Viserys at some point if he existed back then, but he didn't. 

Secret information is dispensed on a need to know basis.  Dany's role in the plot is that of a piece of meat thrown to a dog to earn its loyalty; Drogo being the dog.   She's been told all her life that she is a Targaryen Princess; and also been told all her life about her brother Rhaegar and his children.  She knows Aegon is ahead of her in the line of succession.