"Only 500 pages to go" for Winds of Winter

[Giuliano]

I'm just as close to finishing my novel as Martin is to finishing the Winds of Winter, and I haven't started yet.

[Rubicante]

500 pages is an eternity.  I will be shocked, absolutely shocked, if we ever get TWOW.    And even if by some miracle we do, ADOS is not happening.   So really, what is the point?

I’ve mentioned this before, but I really wish George would just admit that he doesn’t have it in him to finish the series.  And that’s okay.  Every time he mentions TWOW, he sounds miserable and stressed.  I’d rather have him be happy in his life, instead of him having the dark cloud of TWOW looming over his head.  We as fans will survive the series not being finished.  There are plenty of other great fantasy series out there.

[Mithras]

On 1/17/2023 at 9:52 PM, Mithras said:

Not true. That 1993 outline included the first 13 chapters that were almost identical to the published version.

Now we have a proof for this. Someone went to the Cushing Library and checked the 93 November and 94 November AGoT manuscripts.

It is most curious that Ned's dreams about Lyanna first appeared in 94 November and back then it was Jon Arryn, not Howland Reed, who found Ned holding Lyanna's dead body at the Tower of Joy.

 

 

[SeanF]

The Dornish plot (such as it was) was utterly different in the show; Sansa’s story was an amalgam of three characters (Sansa, Jeyne Poole, Alys Karstark);  the Night King appears nowhere in the books;  Lady Stoneheart, fAegon, Jon Con, were all cut out;  Tyrion, Euron, Jon Snow, and Varys were completely different people in the show to the books;  most characters were massively dumbed down in the last two seasons to hit plot points;  it’s fair to assume that the wight hunt will not appear in the books;    and the battle for Kings Landing must surely happen before the Long Night in the books.

As a result, I think TWOW will only bear a faint resemblance to the show.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

8 hours ago, Mithras said:

It is most curious that Ned's dreams about Lyanna first appeared in 94 November and back then it was Jon Arryn, not Howland Reed, who found Ned holding Lyanna's dead body at the Tower of Joy.

Wow, that's quite a discovery!

[sifth]

Man, that stuff from gsteff, is really interesting. I can't believe that stupid plot from the shows 4th season, involving Jon tracking down and killing the Nights Watch mutineers, at Craster's Keep. It was going to be part of Jon's story in AFFC/ADWD. I'm not a huge fan of Jon's story in that book, but dam does that one feel silly. 

Also that early versions of the story, Janos Slynt isn't killed off by Jon.

Edited January 28, 2023 by sifth

[BlackLightning]

On 1/23/2023 at 6:50 PM, butterweedstrover said:

I was talking about YG and Jon Connington. 
 

If they weren’t part of the story before, Dany’s endpoint was planned out without them. 
 

Side note: GRRM adds a lot of nobodies to his glossary that he can later take from and turn into a fully fleshed out character.

YG has been a part of the story since A Clash of Kings...at the absolute latest. The YG story probably looked very different at that time but it was there.

Jon Connington? You might have a point there but remember that he is really just a vehicle for both YG the character and YG the plotline...and possibly even a vehicle for the big R+L=J revelation. What would be JonCon's reaction to the fact that Rhaegar had a son named Jon? Who knows? It'll likely be juicy.

In any case, Jon Connington is not a main character in the sense that Theon is, much less any of the Big Six. But I think he will shape out to be a major POV character by the end of the series. And, in a way, this is also irrelevant as his character and his backstory was first introduced in A Storm of Swords.

 

As far as nobodies in the glossary? Fair point. But it's a chicken vs. egg argument: there's no way of knowing if certain characters were originally intended to be nobodies that GRRM decided to turn into secondary characters or if GRRM had been planning something all along.

On 1/25/2023 at 10:42 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I was thinking more about the fact that:

  Reveal hidden contents

The ending that each of the Starks got in the show matches with the name of their direwolf, so it all definitely must have come from GRRM.

 

No, they didn't.

Spoiler

Bran's direwolf is named Summer and dies fighting the Night King and the White Walkers. How does that line up with Bran's ending?

And then there's Sansa. Her direwolf is named Lady not Queen. Nor does Sansa die at the hand of a family member after being caught in a political crossfire instigated by the Lannisters. Dany is the one who got that ending.

I'll grant you the Arya ending point. But Rickon and Shaggydog don't match and it is a big stretch to say that Jon and Ghost's endings match and are definitive.

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by BlackLightning

[BlackLightning]

On 1/27/2023 at 10:12 PM, Rubicante said:

500 pages is an eternity.  I will be shocked, absolutely shocked, if we ever get TWOW.    And even if by some miracle we do, ADOS is not happening.   So really, what is the point?

I’ve mentioned this before, but I really wish George would just admit that he doesn’t have it in him to finish the series.  And that’s okay.  Every time he mentions TWOW, he sounds miserable and stressed.  I’d rather have him be happy in his life, instead of him having the dark cloud of TWOW looming over his head.  We as fans will survive the series not being finished.  There are plenty of other great fantasy series out there.

He actually is the most upbeat he has ever been when it comes to Winds mentions and announcements. At least to me.

500 pages actually isn't that bad. If about 1200 pages of the book are complete, then the book is a little over 75% done.

Think of it like this: with some minor tweaks, GRRM could technically release what all that he has written and it would still be a full-length novel longer than both Game and Clash and much longer than Feast.

Keep in mind that he did not start writing Winds immediately after Dance came out. Also remember that he had rewritten/scrapped a bunch of material and that he had a significant writer's block up until 2020. I think he took something like a 1.5-2-year break.

 

It pays to be a bit more optimistic. Dream can still happen.

On 1/28/2023 at 10:34 AM, sifth said:

Man, that stuff from gsteff, is really interesting. I can't believe that stupid plot from the shows 4th season, involving Jon tracking down and killing the Nights Watch mutineers, at Craster's Keep. It was going to be part of Jon's story in AFFC/ADWD. I'm not a huge fan of Jon's story in that book, but dam does that one feel silly. 

Also that early versions of the story, Janos Slynt isn't killed off by Jon.

Where are you reading that at?

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

24 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

No, they didn't

One interpretation is that:

Spoiler

Summer - Bran becomes king and leads Westeros towards the next summer.

Lady - Sansa becomes the lady of Winterfell.

Shaggydog - Rickon's story is a "pointless" shaggy dog story. 

 

[butterweedstrover]

4 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

One interpretation is that:

  Hide contents

Summer - Bran becomes king and leads Westeros towards the next summer.

Lady - Sansa becomes the lady of Winterfell.

Shaggydog - Rickon's story is a "pointless" shaggy dog story. 

 

Greywind? 

Ghost? 

Spoiler

Also, to your point. Arya becomes a sailor venturing to new lands like Nymeria

 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

4 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

Greywind?

Intense but short-lived?

[BlackLightning]

7 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

One interpretation is that:

  Hide contents

Summer - Bran becomes king and leads Westeros towards the next summer.

Lady - Sansa becomes the lady of Winterfell.

Shaggydog - Rickon's story is a "pointless" shaggy dog story. 

 

Spoiler

I believe it has to be a story in order for it to be a shaggy-dog story. In any case, Rickon's existence never mattered. It had absolutely no impact on the plot as Sansa was always going to get help from Jon, Ramsay was always going to feel threatened by Jon (and we know what he does to people who threaten him) and that Jon was always going to fight to determine the future of the North.

There was no Rickon story. In the books, there is a Rickon story courtesy of Davos, Theon's squire and House Manderly...particularly since it involves Skagos (which is a complete mystery) and maybe Hardhome (which has become a complete offscreen horrorshow). It might still go absolutely nowhere (very unlikely given GRRM's recent comments) but it's shaping up to be a pretty significant diversion: if it was just going to be a small filler story, why would it take place so far away from the main events revolving around Winterfell. All the other POVs and storylines north of the Neck are coming together; why would this would be moving away from that?

Sansa had already become Lady of Winterfell in season 5 when she married Ramsay Bolton halfway through the season. But you say that the fates of the wolves parallel the endings of the Starks. Sansa's ending sees her as the ruling Queen of an independent North and being very proud about it. You have to really bend over backwards to make that fit in with what happens to Lady.

I disagree on the point of Bran. The namesake and death of Summer has nothing to do with Bran's kingship. Bran doesn't even take an active role in governance. Evidently, looking for missing dragons and encouraging people to take part in prostitution as a way of generating revenue is the way to prepare Westeros for its summer renaissance.

 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

2 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

  Reveal hidden contents

I believe it has to be a story in order for it to be a shaggy-dog story. In any case, Rickon's existence never mattered. It had absolutely no impact on the plot as Sansa was always going to get help from Jon, Ramsay was always going to feel threatened by Jon (and we know what he does to people who threaten him) and that Jon was always going to fight to determine the future of the North.

There was no Rickon story. In the books, there is a Rickon story courtesy of Davos, Theon's squire and House Manderly...particularly since it involves Skagos (which is a complete mystery) and maybe Hardhome (which has become a complete offscreen horrorshow). It might still go absolutely nowhere (very unlikely given GRRM's recent comments) but it's shaping up to be a pretty significant diversion: if it was just going to be a small filler story, why would it take place so far away from the main events revolving around Winterfell. All the other POVs and storylines north of the Neck are coming together; why would this would be moving away from that?

Sansa had already become Lady of Winterfell in season 5 when she married Ramsay Bolton halfway through the season. But you say that the fates of the wolves parallel the endings of the Starks. Sansa's ending sees her as the ruling Queen of an independent North and being very proud about it. You have to really bend over backwards to make that fit in with what happens to Lady.

I disagree on the point of Bran. The namesake and death of Summer has nothing to do with Bran's kingship. Bran doesn't even take an active role in governance. Evidently, looking for missing dragons and encouraging people to take part in prostitution as a way of generating revenue is the way to prepare Westeros for its summer renaissance.

 

My point is that D&D very likely got the character endings from GRRM and implemented them in the show, warts and all.

[sifth]

57 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Where are you reading that at?

Whenever GRRM finishes a draft of one of his novels, he sends a copy to the Cushing Library. One super fan, went to the library, started reading through the old drafts and started posting on reddit, what he/she found.

https://www.reddit.com/user/gsteff/

Read for yourself, what gsteff found, it's really interesting stuff.

Edited February 1, 2023 by sifth

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

On 1/28/2023 at 5:12 AM, Rubicante said:

I’ve mentioned this before, but I really wish George would just admit that he doesn’t have it in him to finish the series.  And that’s okay.

But I don't think it would be okay with his publishers and other people who are financially invested in the book series.

@Werthead I remember reading that GRRM signed a three-book deal back in 2000 that will remain valid until Winds is delivered. Is that correct?

[Werthead]

47 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But I don't think it would be okay with his publishers and other people who are financially invested in the book series.

@Werthead I remember reading that GRRM signed a three-book deal back in 2000 that will remain valid until Winds is delivered. Is that correct?

I assume so. The original deal was for a trilogy and he signed a second deal after ASoS. Logically that should wrap with TWoW and a new deal should be made for ADoS. But of course at any point in the last 20 years he could have signed an extension deal taking that into account.

I'm assuming fresh deals had to be done for World of Ice and Fire, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, Fire and Blood and Rise of the Dragon.

[PetiteSir]

On 1/27/2023 at 10:12 PM, Rubicante said:

500 pages is an eternity.  I will be shocked, absolutely shocked, if we ever get TWOW.    And even if by some miracle we do, ADOS is not happening.   So really, what is the point?

I’ve mentioned this before, but I really wish George would just admit that he doesn’t have it in him to finish the series.  And that’s okay.  Every time he mentions TWOW, he sounds miserable and stressed.  I’d rather have him be happy in his life, instead of him having the dark cloud of TWOW looming over his head.  We as fans will survive the series not being finished.  There are plenty of other great fantasy series out there.

I don't know if that's fair to assume he's miserable trying to finish TWOW. He obviously is stressed because he has to keep giving updates and answering questions of how far along he is. The pressure is immense and he isn't able to work like he used to, which takes some getting used to. I think for him not seeing the series through would be a bigger disappointment than actually writing it.

Also we've been under the impression that his productivity has been better now than it was during GoT's run. So, 500 pages won't be quick, but it's not entirely daunting.

I get the sentiment, though. I want him to be happy, too. But I guess I'm just more optimistic on the matter.

[TyrionsFlagon]

Remember when he said New Zealand could put him in isolation if he didn't have Winds finished by the time he got to New Zealand for WorldCon 2020?

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2019/05/21/thanks-new-zealand/

Feels like it was last year, but it was actually 4 years ago.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

1 hour ago, TyrionsFlagon said:

Remember when he said New Zealand could put him in isolation if he didn't have Winds finished by the time he got to New Zealand for WorldCon 2020?

Feels like it was last year, but it was actually 4 years ago.

He also famously skipped Worldcon in 2007, for the first time in decades, in order to finish Dance that year. Which obviously didn’t happen until 2011, and even then only because his editors basically forced his hand. 

I guess there are periods when he is on a roll and really does believe that he can finish things quickly, but when that wears off, it takes a while for him to find the groove again.

[Phileonidas]

On 1/28/2023 at 5:12 AM, Rubicante said:

500 pages is an eternity.  I will be shocked, absolutely shocked, if we ever get TWOW.    And even if by some miracle we do, ADOS is not happening.   So really, what is the point?

I’ve mentioned this before, but I really wish George would just admit that he doesn’t have it in him to finish the series.  And that’s okay.  Every time he mentions TWOW, he sounds miserable and stressed.  I’d rather have him be happy in his life, instead of him having the dark cloud of TWOW looming over his head.  We as fans will survive the series not being finished.  There are plenty of other great fantasy series out there.

Well, looking only at the A Song of Ice and Fire series, George does look a bit unproductive. But taking all his works into account, he doesn't look that bad, since he did write and publish Fire & Blood, The World of Ice and Fire and that new Targaryen book. So I could imagine (and hope) that it won't take him that long to complete Winds when there's "only" up to 500 pages or 25% left to write.