US Politics: Speaking to Insanity

[DMC]

As we're winding down to the new Congress, McCarthy has relented on the crazies' demands for lowering the threshold to hold a no confidence vote in an attempt to secure the Speakership:

Quote

McCarthy has been trying to find a compromise threshold that would appease his critics enough to earn their speaker vote, while still being palatable to the rest of the House GOP, and has been sounding out all corners of the conference in private phone calls this week.

One of the numbers that has come up in recent conversations between McCarthy and GOP lawmakers – and which has not been previously reported – is a five-person threshold, according to two of the Republican sources.

Currently, the majority of the House GOP is required to call for the so-called motion to vacate the speaker’s chair. But some conservative hardliners are pushing for a single member to be able to call for such a vote, which they see as an important mechanism to hold the speaker accountable.

Lowering it to five will mean utter chaos in the next Congress.  The House always looks like children, but this will take it to, like, still in utero levels.  I suppose a belated Christmas gift to Dems.

[Zorral]

This is profoundly embarrassing for the New York Democratic Party and New York-based major media outlets:

A tiny paper broke the George Santos scandal but no one paid attention  -- in September, BEFORE the election!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/12/29/north-shore-leader-santos-scoop/
 

I myself wouldn't choose 'embarrassing' to describe this failure's breach of public service and professionalism, by BOTH the NY Times and the NY Dem party.

It's like some sort of chemical aberration of the brain -- he cannot say anything any time he opens his mouth that isn't a lie.

So I'm even more astonished the voters that voted for him didn't notice, or if they did notice, didn't care and voted for him anyway.

OTOH, I complained about this loudly and often -- that during the variety of primaries the NY voters had to go through, and the elections -- one couldn't find out anything about most of the candidates -- or even who they were -- or even the offices up for election.  The candidates themselves with very exceptions, kept themselves to themselves, and that includes the governor.

[Mindwalker]

Nvm.

[Zorral]

One is tempted to speculate this is part of why none of the NY blob media even bothered with Santos' compulsive lying despite the local news talking about it; they were all, like the NYT itself salivating over the red tide, along with high profile races as the one in PA, and the one in OH, which had so much DRAMA YAY!

Tellingly, the reichlican SOP of lying and fantasy, the belief that if we want it, it is so, has also polluted polling. ('Polluted' is the word the article employs several times.)  This kind of deliberately biased polling, entwined with insurrectionist 'news and reporting' outlets populated by the Tuckers and others, from Fox to podcasts to socials to Youtube, feeds and exacerbates the lie of stolen elections when Dems win them.  Coincidence, one may ask?  One may respond, perhaps, "Not at all, sir."

The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative
The errant surveys spooked some candidates into spending more money than necessary, and diverted help from others who otherwise had a fighting chance of winning.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

Quote

 

.... A similar sequence of events played out in battlegrounds nationwide. Surveys showing strength for Republicans, often from the same partisan pollsters, set Democratic klaxons blaring in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Coupled with the political factors already favoring Republicans — including inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — the skewed polls helped feed what quickly became an inescapable political narrative: A Republican wave election was about to hit the country with hurricane force.

Democrats in each of those states went on to win their Senate races. Ms. Murray clobbered Ms. Smiley by nearly 15 points.

Not for the first time, a warped understanding of the contours of a national election had come to dominate the views of political operatives, donors, journalists and, in some cases, the candidates themselves.

The misleading polls of 2022 did not just needlessly spook some worried candidates into spending more money than they may have needed to on their own races. They also led some candidates — in both parties — who had a fighting chance of winning to lose out on money that could have made it possible for them to do so, as those controlling the purse strings believed polls that inaccurately indicated they had no chance at all.

In the election’s immediate aftermath, the polling failures appeared to be in keeping with misfires in 2016 and 2020, when the strength of Donald J. Trump’s support was widely underestimated, and with the continuing struggles of an industry that arose with the corded home telephone to adapt to the mass migration to cellphones and text messaging. Indeed, some of the same Republican-leaning pollsters who erred in 2022 had built credibility with their contrarian, but accurate, polling triumphs in recent elections.

But a New York Times review of the forces driving the narrative of a coming red wave, and of that narrative’s impact, found new factors at play.

Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past.

That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that more readily suited the needs of the sprawling and voracious political content machine — one sustained by ratings and clicks, and famished for fresh data and compelling narratives.

The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets — from Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast and “The Charlie Kirk Show” to Fox News and its top-rated prime-time lineup. And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom. ....

 

 

[ThinkerX]

7 hours ago, Zorral said:

One is tempted to speculate this is part of why none of the NY blob media even bothered with Santos' compulsive lying despite the local news talking about it; they were all, like the NYT itself salivating over the red tide, along with high profile races as the one in PA, and the one in OH, which had so much DRAMA YAY!

Tellingly, the reichlican SOP of lying and fantasy, the belief that if we want it, it is so, has also polluted polling. ('Polluted' is the word the article employs several times.)  This kind of deliberately biased polling, entwined with insurrectionist 'news and reporting' outlets populated by the Tuckers and others, from Fox to podcasts to socials to Youtube, feeds and exacerbates the lie of stolen elections when Dems win them.  Coincidence, one may ask?  One may respond, perhaps, "Not at all, sir."

The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative
The errant surveys spooked some candidates into spending more money than necessary, and diverted help from others who otherwise had a fighting chance of winning.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

 

So... this Nae Silver character needs to get his act together then? I remember many a confident and wrong position based on polling data that was either old or skewed.

 

[A True Kaniggit]

Way to ruin the internet for us Louisiana. 
 

 

https://www.wafb.com/2022/12/28/watching-porn-now-requires-age-verification-la-because-new-law/?outputType=amp

[LongRider]

1 hour ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Way to ruin the internet for us Louisiana. 
 

/cdn-cgi/mirage/b1d36aab6e4d0c2e7df9c46228ba7b52d529f606338274170eb3ddf4244ab9b0/1280/https://asoiaf.westeros.org/uploads/emoticons/default_tantrum.gif/cdn-cgi/mirage/b1d36aab6e4d0c2e7df9c46228ba7b52d529f606338274170eb3ddf4244ab9b0/1280/https://asoiaf.westeros.org/uploads/emoticons/default_communist.gif/cdn-cgi/mirage/b1d36aab6e4d0c2e7df9c46228ba7b52d529f606338274170eb3ddf4244ab9b0/1280/https://asoiaf.westeros.org/uploads/emoticons/default_bang.gif

 

That’s fucked up. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

14 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

So... this Nae Silver character needs to get his act together then? I remember many a confident and wrong position based on polling data that was either old or skewed.

 

I cant read the NYT article, but there were a large number of partisan polls this cycle, and 538 did make somewhat of a deal about how it didn't matter since their model corrected for it (but I think in the end underestimated the D strength). Their post-election analysis was also a bit too self-congratulatory for my tastes. At any rate, I believe these partisan polls will continue to be a problem going forward.

[Maithanet]

I think that 538 did OK this cycle.  Not terrible, but definitely not as well as some other poll aggregators that were more careful about ignoring partisan polls.  I think part of the problem was Trafalgar in particular, which 538 rated as a decent pollster on the basis of them doing pretty well in 2016 and 2020.  But they aren't good, they just consistently overate Republicans and that lucked into being right in 16 and 20.  But putting your thumb on the scales is not good practice and it failed miserably when they did it again this year.

[DMC]

I agree with what's been said but the NYT blaming Nate Silver for misleading campaign coverage is incredibly rich.  Sure, I disagree with 538's model in not dinging objectively biased polls with questionable methodologies - and certainly the dearth of high quality polling this cycle skewed their outputs towards those partisan firms - but this was known at the time.  We discussed it here!

If this caused operatives, candidates and/or campaign committees to misappropriate funds that's on them for a lack of competence.  Not to mention they should be conducting their own polling and have access to better information than any of us - including Silver.  There's also, ya know, RCP - which flagrantly skews their averages towards Republicans every cycle.

I do agree with IHT though that 538's self-congratulatory tone post-election was pretty nauseating and not deserved.

[DMC]

I know this doesn't matter but the release of Hope Hicks' texts with (Ivanka chief of staff) Julie Radford were pretty nauseating.  What was apparently the true tragedy for those two on that day?  Not being able to find another job:

Quote

“In one day he ended every future opportunity that doesn’t include speaking engagements at the local proud boys chapter,” Hicks said, apparently referring to former President Trump. 

Radford responded, “Yup,” seemingly agreeing. 

“And all of us that didn’t have jobs lined up will be perpetually unemployed,” Hicks said, also saying she was “so mad and upset,” adding, “We all look like domestic terrorists now.”

“Oh yes I’ve been crying for an hour,” Radford replied. 

 

[Rorshach]

Galaxy brain to find out Trump is poison after working for him until 2021. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Rorschach - 2 said:

Galaxy brain to find out Trump is poison after working for him until 2021. 

Like I said years ago, she's the perfect evil Bond girl.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Is McCarthy even gonna get the votes to become Speaker? Even his concessions thus far arent enough to mollify everyone in his crazy party, so I cant wait to see what new madness he'll be forced to endorse. 

The sticking point appears to be exactly what DMC linked in the first post, the threshold for motion to vacate. The 9 GoP holdouts want it lowered to 1.

[ThinkerX]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Is McCarthy even gonna get the votes to become Speaker? Even his concessions thus far arent enough to mollify everyone in his crazy party, so I cant wait to see what new madness he'll be forced to endorse. 

The sticking point appears to be exactly what DMC linked in the first post, the threshold for motion to vacate. The 9 GoP holdouts want it lowered to 1.

Don't have the links handy - dang articles vanish too fast - but McCarthy has proposed gutting something called the Congressional Ethics Office (Not sure about the name). I think the relatively sane members of his party are deeply unhappy with the scheme to allow Speakers to be challenged as easily as the conservative's desire.

[Martell Spy]

New York Times: Brazilian authorities intend to revive fraud case against George Santos

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/politics/george-santos-brazil-fraud-case/index.html

Quote

 

Law enforcement officials in Brazil will likely reinstate fraud charges against US Rep.-elect George Santos as the New York Republican officially assumes his role in the US House Tuesday under a cloud of suspicion over his dubious resume, the New York Times reported Monday.

According to the Times, prosecutors said they will seek a “formal response” from Santos related to a stolen checkbook in 2008, after police suspended an investigation into him after they were unable to find him for nearly a decade.

Authorities, having verified Santos’ location, will make a formal request to the Justice Department to notify him of the charges, Nathaly Ducoulombier, a spokeswoman for the Rio de Janeiro prosecutor’s office, told the Times.

CNN has reached out to a lawyer for Santos for comment.

The criminal case, according to the Times, citing court records it has reviewed, stems from a visit Santos made to a small clothing store in Niterói, a city outside of Rio de Janeiro, where Santos spent nearly $700 out of the stolen checkbook using a fake name.

 

 

[Wilbur]

McCarthy's concessions will make the House ungovernable.

They will just thrash around for two years like a landed fish as they roll around in the muck from one self-manufactured crisis to another in an attempt to grab eyeballs on social media.

[Zorral]

Which means no governance, again.  So many ways to destroy a government, let us count them, all them being used by Them.

[DMC]

The only thing that seems pretty certain at this point is Republicans are going to kick off a second straight Congress by making an embarrassment of the institution.  Instead of, ya know, taking what should be a ceremonial vote -- and frankly a victory for their party.  Well done!

[Zorral]

Now it is known: Terry Southern 

https://www.legacy.com/news/celebrity-deaths/terry-southern-american-satirist/

wrote this while on blotter acid before he died.

Trying to Trademark ‘Rigged Election,’ and Other Revelations From the Jan. 6 Transcripts
The Jan. 6 committee released a whirlwind of documents in its final days and wrapped up its work on Monday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/02/us/politics/jan-6-committee-transcripts.html

Quote

WASHINGTON — The nation’s top military officer saw the Jan. 6 attack as similar to the “Reichstag moment” that led to Nazi dictatorship. Aides for former President Donald J. Trump saw their future job opportunities slipping away, and predicted being “perpetually unemployed.” Mr. Trump himself saw the push to overturn the 2020 election as a financial opportunity, moving to trademark the phrase “Rigged Election.” ....

Just for starters.