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Ukraine: Are ya winning yet.


Varysblackfyre321

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Charlie Seitz points out that the Russians are no longer able to use the appropriate rolling stock on their railroads to deliver supplies to the front.  Instead, they are dropping ordnance into coal cars in order to get them to where they need to be.

 

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6 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Bradley’s are tracked vehicles… that aren’t tanks.

5 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Pedant's corner:  The French AMX-10RC are untracked vehicles...that are tanks.  Technically.

Ser Scot A Ellison, et al. -- yes; you're both correct! And apparently, it's the AMX-10 RC (light tank, specifically) that FRA is giving to UKR, which is being phased out of the Armée de Terre. It'll be interesting to see how these armored fighting vehicles perform specifically re their mobility differences.

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On 1/4/2023 at 6:09 PM, Wilbur said:

The other key thing to remember about Wagner is that they control diamond mines and lumber camps and other resources in Africa, so they have a source of income outside of Russia itself.

Very Bond villain.

And perhaps the reason Wagner is so persistent in Bakhmut is also resource-based:

 

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20 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

But if I had a choice, the French tank looks like the most fun.  It certainly is the fastest.

Wilbur -- if I had a choice, I wouldn't fight at all, hahaha. Conventional warfare is brutal and nightmarish, and I respect both the UKR and RUS warfighters.

If compelled, and limited to perform as a crewman, I'd fight from a USA IFV over a FRA AFV / DEU IFV. Of course, I'm biased in my confidence towards USA systems. Now, if allowed the choice of any system, I'd choose none and go dismounted and fight as a partisan.

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6 hours ago, Werthead said:

I think it's a solid bet now that Ukraine will get Abrams, and then F-16s. It's just a question of when.

Werthead -- given adequate numbers, this would certainly and more easily facilitate liberation given RUS's shocking incompetence and matériel disadvantages. I mean, what could Russia do against this level of tech except wait and die. My first question is, how would RUS react to such an escalation (assuming the Falcon and Abrams were introduced on the battlefield). And second, how long can the US sustain these economic costs given current conditions.

Patriots do seem to break a certain seal -- fourth, or fifth? If you get the refence, I'm being faceitious, of course.

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17 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

Werthead -- given adequate numbers, this would certainly and more easily facilitate liberation given RUS's shocking incompetence and matériel disadvantages. I mean, what could Russia do against this level of tech except wait and die. My first question is, how would RUS react to such an escalation (assuming the Falcon and Abrams were introduced on the battlefield). And second, how long can the US sustain these economic costs given current conditions.

Patriots do seem to break a certain seal -- fourth, or fifth? If you get the refence, I'm being faceitious, of course.

1. All the Russians have left that they haven’t used are WMDs.  Chemical/Biological/Nuclear.  If they pop the cork on that I have every reason to believe NATO will intervene directly.  That will be a very bad day for… everyone.

2. Given the conditions and maintenance we have seen on Russian weapons and materiale is there real confidence that Russian WMDs will actually do what they are supposed to do if deployed?

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28 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

Werthead... And second, how long can the US sustain these economic costs given current conditions...

A significant majority of the material that the US has sent to Ukraine actually saves the DoD money in the form of ongoing expense to keep it operational-ish.  A lot of it comes out of storage, where the carrying costs of inventory and maintenance are not small.  We do spend a little bit of cash to transport it to Ukraine, but getting rid of Stingers and M113s and so on is a net savings, as the US military no longer has to keep this old kit in working condition.

Of course, this material does have a balance sheet cost, which is what the State Department uses when it announces a new shipment of stuff for Ukraine.  The War Market value is larger than the depreciated cost of the stuff, since Ukraine can immediately put it to use reducing a near-peer competitor (Russia) and their military force.  But if those Stingers and M113s just continued to sit in a depot in Illinois or Missouri or whatever, their depreciated value to the US would be close to zero.

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This means that the T1302 road from Bakhmut to Lyschansk is in Russian hands all along it's length (though Ukraine have fire control over much of it), and the Russians would now have fire control over part of the T0513 road from Bakhmut to Siversk.

 

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7 hours ago, Wilbur said:

But if I had a choice, the French tank looks like the most fun.  It certainly is the fastest.

 

Only on paved roads and maybe in the North African desert. Certainly not in the Ukrainian mud.

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1 hour ago, Loge said:

Only on paved roads and maybe in the North African desert. Certainly not in the Ukrainian mud.

Loge -- that's exactly one of my considerations. More, the limitations of tracked vs wheeled (speed) re RPGs and the like. Neither mobility type could reasonably outrun a Russian RPG.

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On 1/2/2023 at 2:15 PM, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Thanks.. I did catch that after posting. Apologies.

That happened to me in the Space thread a couple of years ago. I think the youtube algorithm was conspiring with my audible app to put a "LIVE" launching going down like right as I logged in. (To youtube)

I went to the Space thread to deliver a sweeping congratulations onto the effort and performance of all involved. No eye was dry. Men stood at attention, at attention. Women began ovulating immediately. Babies bemoaned their new siblings whole moments before they were conceived, inspired and indebted to the beautiful image I produced for all involved!

And then one of you treachers pointed out the date on the video...:leaving:

 

Meanwhile, something that occurs to one such as me but has not cropped up past any of the filters I use (you people :) ) to keep the worst of the inernet detritus off my _clearly pristine_ intellectual beaches...

Putin is supposed to be sick right? Hopefully Sleepy Joe already knows who the successor is to Putin because that's who's killing all these rivals.

No proof, nothing other than the fact that what may be logical deduction from one side of the curtain is rendered moot if you don't understand the relations behind it.

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I must admit, I'm very anxious about the next weeks. It feels like it can't be a coincidence that Ukraine is getting Bradleys, AMX-10s and Marders, at the same time as Russia is sending more and more equipment to Belarus, prepares another giant draft for more cannon fodder and there are troubling rumors going on about Belarus maybe possibly eventually getting pressured into joining this time around for real.

Especially from a German perspective, where I feel very frustrated with my government doing NOTHING without other NATO members pushing us forward, a big step like sending Marders (which should have been in Ukraine ages ago) after all the excuses even though the arms manufacturers offered to send them essentially from week 1 for me is a big sign that US intelligence found another Russian offensive to be an imminent threat and pressured our government to send them. I see really no other explanation. Fuck... This is whole nonsensical waste of lives is going into the next round, isn't it?

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