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Ukraine: Are ya winning yet.


Varysblackfyre321

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I know very little about Kremlin politics, but to me I think that Prihgozhin is seeking to establish himself as a tough war leader and plant himself as Putin's #1 military man.  Then if Putin steps aside, he'll be right there.  But it's a fine line because it means he's got a target on his back from the actual Russian military, and if any of them can convince Putin that he's seeking to take the throne for himself, then his life expectancy will be short indeed. 

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I know very little about Kremlin politics, but to me I think that Prihgozhin is seeking to establish himself as a tough war leader and plant himself as Putin's #1 military man.  Then if Putin steps aside, he'll be right there.  But it's a fine line because it means he's got a target on his back from the actual Russian military, and if any of them can convince Putin that he's seeking to take the throne for himself, then his life expectancy will be short indeed. 

"Take a fucking chance, will ya?"- George Carlin

 

ETA: 

because i am misskuothing mhor on 

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So with Ukraine getting main battle tanks from the UK (Challenger 2s) and Poland (Leopard 2s), it looks like the step-function escalatory increase necessary to provide a reasonable entry point for additional MBTs has occurred.

The Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 donations from UK and Poland respectively are small numbers.  But there are a lot more Leopards kicking around in Europe, and a couple thousand Abrams in Doyle, CA waiting for someone to give them an excuse to turn over their turbines.

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Surovikin has been relieved of the command of the "special operation." Gerasimov is in charge of it now. And Alexander Lapin is the new chief of staff of the ground forces. Prigozhin and Kadyrov are not pleased.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64235713

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-appoints-new-ground-forces-chief-staff-despite-hawks-criticism-2023-01-10/

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6 hours ago, Wilbur said:

So with Ukraine getting main battle tanks from the UK (Challenger 2s) and Poland (Leopard 2s)

As far as I know Germany has to agree to the transfer of their design. I doubt Poland would give the tanks without such consent. Even if - probably no one else would, and one company (14 vehicles) Poland declares to pass is too few. We'll see after next meeting in Ramstein.

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2 hours ago, broken one said:

As far as I know Germany has to agree to the transfer of their design. I doubt Poland would give the tanks without such consent. Even if - probably no one else would, and one company (14 vehicles) Poland declares to pass is too few. We'll see after next meeting in Ramstein.

I very much think Poland ignoring convetions and waiting for Germany's consent is on brand. And in this case, they can kinda reasonably  expect, that Germany will later sign off on the tank deals anyway. Here PiS just have the golden opportunity to piss off both Russia and Germany at the same time.

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13 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I very much think Poland ignoring convetions and waiting for Germany's consent is on brand. And in this case, they can kinda reasonably  expect, that Germany will later sign off on the tank deals anyway. Here PiS just have the golden opportunity to piss off both Russia and Germany at the same time.

I've been wrong about what PiS is able to do several times, but...  Duda has said that this will not happen without "multiple agreements" and that Poland will pass the 14 tanks only within frames of coalition. In fact he is a marionette which tries to cut its ropes from time to time, but I think the case is too serious to misbehave just for sake of pissing off Germany.

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Right now the consent isn't there.

Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister Habeck (Greens) upped the pressure on Chancellor Scholz (SPD) a bit, by saying Germany should not stand in the way of other countries supporting Ukraine. 

Foreign Minister Baerbock (Greens) has also publicly voiced her support, but pointed out, that coordinated and united actions by Ukraine's backers is key, even if it takes a bit longer.

So if you read between the lines, there's probably a sort of expectations that tanks will be available after the Rammsteim meeting.

The other party (junior, junior (?) partner) in the German goverment the FDP is also pushing for the transfer of tanks.

The main opposition party (CDU) also wants to start with training Ukrainians on those tanks ASAP, so that they can use them on the field as soon as they are released. 

Scholz's SPD are dragging their heels a bit again. But like I said, I suspect the Rammstein meeting will lead to the release of the tanks. 

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Let's face it: on the European theater, there is no short term viable alternative to the Leopard II as a western MBT for Ukraine.

The Challenger II is a fine MBT, but there are fare too few around and afaik no production at the moment. Same goes for the Leclerc. The Abrams is out of production as well and although there are still many around, most of the would have to be refitted and then transported to Europe. 

The Leopard II is still in production, it is available in significant numbers because many Western armies use it, training facilities in Poland, Germany and other countries are plenty, logistics, spare parts production etc. is already up and running. The only thing is that we have to convince the SPD...

 

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6 hours ago, Loge said:

Surovikin has been relieved of the command of the "special operation." Gerasimov is in charge of it now. And Alexander Lapin is the new chief of staff of the ground forces. Prigozhin and Kadyrov are not pleased.

Gerasimov has been one of the Russian inner circle for many years.  He and Shoigu received a lot of blame for the Russian army's poor state of readiness at the beginning of the war.  There were plenty of people that thought Gerasimov had fallen out of favor with Putin.  For someone as high up as him, he probably wouldn't fall out a window so much as get transferred to a shitty job with no power (and maybe, if Putin is still pissed about things, fall out a window a couple years later). 

Anyways, there is speculation that this promotion is instead just laying the groundwork to make him the fall guy for the whole operation.  At the very least, this feels like a poisoned chalice he's being handed.  He needs to turn the war around, but Russia has no tools with which to do that. 

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Interestingly, there's been speculation in western intelligence circles that Gerasimov might be the best hope as a successor to Putin. He's reasonably straight-talking (apparently less likely to parrot out party BS in one-to-one meetings) and is apparently genuinely interested in military reform and professionalisation of the Russian military, he just wasn't given the budget and tools to do it with, or stop the corruption eating away at it. Reportedly he had soldiers under his command in Chechnya disciplined or executed for looting and rape, and he's the senior-most Russian military official who's had the balls to visit the actual front (Putin came as far as the Crimea Bridge), almost getting killed in the process. He's rumoured to be one of the figures pushing for limited and realistic objectives in Ukraine.

The only problems with this are that it feels a bit like projection, like the idea that Shoigu could be an Admiral Doenitz figure who'd end the war immediately if Putin died. It kinds of ignores the degree to which both Shoigu and Gerasimov have been utterly loyal to Putin on every level and owe their places and careers to him, and also the fact that both seem to have benefitted from the corruption (Shoigu has a very silly, grandiose palace out in the middle of nowhere, like the most excessive oligarch). If Putin gets taken out by a coup they'd probably be on the firing line as well, and if Putin leaves of his own volition or dies of natural courses, I'm not sure they have the widespread support politically or from the military to take control.

Apparently there's a lot of "after Putin" chatter going on in the Kremlin and elsewhere (out of Putin's hearing, but given how secluded he is, that's not a problem) at the moment, which is interesting given the numerous debates about Putin's health. It might be they know something we don't, or are simply assuming at 2 years over the average lifespan for a Russian male, Putin's not got long in office, at least, left (possibly a bit odd given that Gorbachev just died at 91, twenty years Putin's senior).

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23 hours ago, Maithanet said:

He needs to turn the war around, but Russia has no tools with which to do that. 

Hmm.  Maybe i'm being too negative but is that really true?  It seems to be willing to throw enough semi-trained (to poorly trained) soldiers onto the frontline, in order to stop Ukraine from advancing.  And that seems to be largely working right now, and it has actually allowed it to start grinding forward again.

Ukraine needs to regain a lot more territory, while if Russia holds what it currently has, it can sell it as a success.  Ukraine being forced to give up will be a terrible blow to it.  And there will always be the potential of Russia resuming offensive operations in some future year.

Maybe Russia will fail but it seems to have a plan at least, which could unfortunately work.

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1 hour ago, Padraig said:

Hmm.  Maybe i'm being too negative but is that really true?  It seems to be willing to throw enough semi-trained (to poorly trained) soldiers onto the frontline, in order to stop Ukraine from advancing.  And that seems to be largely working right now, and it has actually allowed it to start grinding forward again.

At the beginning of this war, Russia's big advantage was in military equipment.  Russia had more of basically everything (tanks, helicopters, APCs, drones, and most of all artillery pieces).  Ukraine had the advantage of better morale, better leadership (at low and high levels), and better logistics. 

Since the war started, which army is getting stronger?

Russia:  Cannot build or import enough of ANYTHING they are using in the war.  Whether it's shells, gear or heavy weapons, Russia is relying on its existing stockpiles of military equipment to fight the war.  In many cases those stockpiles were massive, but nothing is infinite.  Thus they are using older shells, older tanks, older logistics equipment, etc, all of which is more prone to break and just generally of lower quality than something made in the past decade. 

They are attempting to counterbalance this with increasing numbers of minimally trained mobiks to fill the lines.  That can help solve one of the problems (lack of infantry) but doesn't solve (and can potentially make worse) many of Russia's other problems - poor morale, terrible NCOs, bad logistics. 

Ukraine:  Has more veteran troops than at the start of the war, as a combination of domestic and international training is bringing tens of thousands of troops the training they need.  Western aid is replacing Ukrainian existing stocks with NATO weapons which are almost always better.  Much of that equipment is able to counterbalance Russia's biggest advantage, and nowhere is this more obvious than the success of the HIMARs, which Russia has no answer for and allows Ukrainian artillery to hit very hard in spite of numerical inferiority.  Ukrainian morale is high after the recent successes in Kherson and east of Kharkiv. 

On balance, things look very good for Ukraine in 2023.  It is only if the war drags on into 2024 and 2025 that Russia could realistically hope for a negotiated success.  I don't think that Russia can hold Ukraine back for this upcoming year.  A relatively small advance south from Zaporozhye would allow Ukraine to control the main east-west rail line and basically cut the Russians in half.   And even if Russia can last till 2024, how much Russian equipment will survive the year?  How many of their trucks will still work?  Will they just be relying on the shells they can manufacture each month? 

Even if you assume that Republicans will stonewall any further American assistance, there is enough spending authorized for basically all of 2023.  And European production and assistance (particularly from eastern Europe) is only going to increase in that time.  Poland, Czech Republic, Finland, and the Baltic states will do everything realistically in their power to prevent Russia from winning this war.  And their combined GDP is larger than Russia's, even without any other allies. 

I'll admit I'm biased, but I think that Russia is fucked.  This war will only go worse and worse for them.  They might have small successes (war is like that), but capturing Soledar changes very little. 

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It's not clear that Russia can do better than what they're doing now, but it's also not clear that Ukraine will be able to 'win' under the conditions that they want to without even more material support and bigger collapses in Russia. Stopping offensive assaults is one thing, especially on home ground, and retaking badly defended places is another, but taking places that are defended in depth that have geographic advantages is a difficult thing to do - and Russia has now been digging in for 4 months. 

It's certainly possible, but it largely depends not on Ukrainian training or Russian materials but instead on Russian incompetence and flow of Western weaponry. 

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Have any of you read this book?  If so what do you think?

Vodka Politics: Alcohol, Autocracy, and the Secret History of the Russian State. Illustrated (2014) by Mark Lawrence Schrad. Oxford University Press.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00HF9DEXE/
 

Myself, am reading The Story of Russia (2022) by Orlando Figes.  Unlike the brilliant Romanovs: 1613 - 1918 (2016) say, at 744 pp., by Simon Sebag Montefiore, this one is a mere 302 pp. 

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5 hours ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

It's not clear that Russia can do better than what they're doing now, but it's also not clear that Ukraine will be able to 'win' under the conditions that they want to without even more material support and bigger collapses in Russia. Stopping offensive assaults is one thing, especially on home ground, and retaking badly defended places is another, but taking places that are defended in depth that have geographic advantages is a difficult thing to do - and Russia has now been digging in for 4 months. 

It's certainly possible, but it largely depends not on Ukrainian training or Russian materials but instead on Russian incompetence and flow of Western weaponry. 

Yes.  That better describes my concern.

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One thing that I’ve been wondering, is how effective is the Wagner Group at acquiring material goods for the war. Apparently, they already control resources in the Central African Republic and other states. Do they have the ability to supply Russia with equipment that it’s unable to provide by conventional means? 

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Not directly, if that's what you mean. Wagner control raw materials, largely - rare earth minerals, gold, salt, uranium. They need to find buyers for those and sellers for military equipment willing to deal with them despite the sanctions they're under. They'll find some, I'm sure, but not in enough quantity to make a real difference, and Wagner aren't going to donate equipment to other elements of the Russian forces.

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Missile attack today on Ukraine that was almost bizarrely low-key. Only 30 missiles launched and 20 intercepted, and it was the smallest missile attack on Ukraine for some time and more than a fortnight after the last significant attack.

Some commentators saying that might be a sign of PGM production limitations, although there's also caution over reading too much into that. The 66% interception rate was also a bit lower than Ukraine has achieved in recent months. There was a severe hit on an apartment building in Dnipro that looks like it's killed a lot of people though, far more than the missile attacks before Christmas where more than 50 missiles were launched and only caused a couple of deaths.

Some minor indications of ground taken by the Ukrainians north of Melitopol, but seems to be hundreds of metres at best.

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