Ukraine: Are ya winning yet.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Can we all agree that this Russian Tennis player can go fuck himself?

 

[Zorral]

Like the fake retreat to lure the enemy into unorganized chase, and thus easy to massacre, forcing essentially untrained, weaponless people as the front lines to absorb the enemy's firepower, and hopefully exhaust it, was one of the Mongolian Hordes' tried-and-true traditional methods of conducting warfare, particularly siege warfare.

 

[Erik of Hazelfield]

Sweden sends 50 Combat Vehicle 90, the advanced artillery system Archer and light anti-tank weapon system NLAW to Ukraine. It’s a pretty big step-up from earlier deliveries. The CV90 has so far mostly been bought by the Swedish army or exported to peaceful European countries like Norway and Switzerland and has therefore seen very little combat, but it’s a competent vehicle and with its 40 mm cannon should be able to knock out Russian tanks. 50 of those is significant.

I suppose the hope is that more European countries will follow suit and ship heavier and more modern stuff to Ukraine, and that this will give the Ukrainians the needed offensive capability to regain territory in 2023. 

[Maithanet]

There's a big meeting at Ramstein base in Germany between Ukraine and many NATO allies.  A lot of the big announcements we've seen in the past couple of days have been in advance of that, to pressure the holdouts (particularly Germany) to increase their commitments and deliveries to Ukraine. 

Germany's position that they will not provide Leopard tanks (or allow other countries to export their Leopards) is not a good one.  My understanding is that Scholz doesn't want to provide Leopards until the US provides Abrams, but the problem is that Abrams are just not nearly as good a fit for what Ukraine is trying to do as the Leopard (specialized parts, specialized fuel, much further to ship, etc).  Now, it's possible that the US could ship a small number of Abrams just to mollify the Germans, and maybe that's how this all gets resolved, but that seems pretty silly at this point.

[Fez]

Not relevant anymore, but interesting news about the early months of the war:

Apparently in March and April of 2022, Bulgaria secretly provided Ukraine with 1/3 of its ammo and 40% of its diesel fuel. They used intermediary companies and the government denied everything because Bulgaria's domestic politics were too pro-Russian. But its entirely possible Ukraine might've lost the war waiting for western supply lines to get set up if not for Bulgaria.

[Werthead]

13 minutes ago, Erik of Hazelfield said:

Sweden sends 50 Combat Vehicle 90, the advanced artillery system Archer and light anti-tank weapon system NLAW to Ukraine. It’s a pretty big step-up from earlier deliveries. The CV90 has so far mostly been bought by the Swedish army or exported to peaceful European countries like Norway and Switzerland and has therefore seen very little combat, but it’s a competent vehicle and with its 40 mm cannon should be able to knock out Russian tanks. 50 of those is significant.

I suppose the hope is that more European countries will follow suit and ship heavier and more modern stuff to Ukraine, and that this will give the Ukrainians the needed offensive capability to regain territory in 2023. 

This is the "boiling the frog" process.

Very moderate increases in capability, which are then mocked in the Russian press as being ineffective and a splendid chance for Russian military and technical superiority to show itself (only for them to fail to materialise), and then another very moderate increase in quality and after a few months Ukraine suddenly has a military vastly superior to the one it had just one year ago and the Russians are kind of scratching their heads about it but can't really bitch about it now because they've been saying all along it's bullshit old NATO stock that Russian forces can easily deal with.

Getting the Germans to sign off on the Leopards is the big next task, as Ukraine needs them for large-scaled armoured thrusts to cut off and regain territory (British Challengers are solid but I can't see them getting more than 50 at most). If Germany keeps messing around with that, the US might have to release Abrams instead, and the optics of that are fairly significantly escalatory, even if in principle the Abrams is not such a massive upgrade over the Leopard. America will do it but they'd rather not, and keep that in the their back pocket for a future, moderate escalation.

[Werthead]

Ha. I think Germany is playing a familiar game here. Poland asks Germany to send Leopards or allow them to send their own tanks, Germany says no, Poland tells them to fuck off. Probably, behind the scenes, the Germans complain to the Russians about the demands on them and how they're saying no to not enflame the situation and hey these Poles, huh? And hey, let's have another phone call with Putin about de-escalating the situation? And then when that goes nowhere, more German arms then end up in Ukraine.

Germany and France are providing absolute tons of equipment to Ukraine whilst keeping open lines of communication with Moscow, which people have been mocking them for but could come in extremely handy before the end of the conflict. It takes up time, though, which is pressing at the moment: Ukraine may only have a limited window to exploit having a superior MBT before Russian defensive lines become too dense to penetrate in certain key areas and the Russians may launch an alternate spoiling attack elsewhere (maybe back towards Kharkiv, even Kyiv) to try to force an end to the war.

Not much out of Turkey for a while. Possibly some signs that Turkey is planning a large incursion into Syria to fortify their border, which would require some coordination with the Russians.

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Apparently in March and April of 2022, Bulgaria secretly provided Ukraine with 1/3 of its ammo and 40% of its diesel fuel. They used intermediary companies and the government denied everything because Bulgaria's domestic politics were too pro-Russian. But its entirely possible Ukraine might've lost the war waiting for western supply lines to get set up if not for Bulgaria.

I did think it was amusing that the diesel Bulgaria supplied to Ukraine was made from Russian crude in a Russian-owned oil refinery.

[Toth]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Ha. I think Germany is playing a familiar game here. Poland asks Germany to send Leopards or allow them to send their own tanks, Germany says no, Poland tells them to fuck off. Probably, behind the scenes, the Germans complain to the Russians about the demands on them and how they're saying no to no enflame the situation and hey these Poles, huh? And hey, let's have another phone call with Putin about de-escalating the situation? And then when that goes nowhere, more German arms then end up in Ukraine.

Germany and France are providing absolute tons of equipment to Ukraine whilst keeping open lines of communication with Moscow, which people have been mocking them for but could come in extremely handy before the end of the conflict. It takes eat up time, though, which is pressing at the moment: Ukraine may only have a limited window to exploit having a superior MBT before Russian defensive lines become too dense to penetrate in certain key areas and the Russians may launch an alternate spoiling attack elsewhere (maybe back towards Kharkiv, even Kyiv) to try to force an end to the war.

You somehow have a whole lot more trust into my government knowing what it is doing than I have... Of course I would love for that to be more than wishful thinking, but I tend to think that the simplest explanation for Scholz dragging his heels at every point is usually the correct one when it comes to people. And here I think Scholz isn't playing any 4D games, but is instead trying to soothe the fears of the vast swathes of his party that are very Russia-friendly since the Schröder days and who keep blaring into his ears that Germany shouldn't get involved and anger our big old friend Russia. On the other hand I severely doubt that ruining the opportunity for Germany to take a position of leadership and instead tank public perception makes sense in any kind of game plan, much less one that is in cooperation with a Polish government that has been a pain in the ass to Germany and the EU for years now and gladly leverages this opportunity for some easy reelection points.

Also I'm thinking of stuff like how Merkel's strategic advisor, some general Vad, keeps running from media outlet to media outlet, blaring on how Russia will definitely win this war in the long run and therefore support to Ukraine won't matter and that opinions like that, which, granted, had been much more prominent in the early days of the war, might still linger around in the circles of Scholz.

[kiko]

59 minutes ago, Toth said:

You somehow have a whole lot more trust into my government knowing what it is doing than I have... Of course I would love for that to be more than wishful thinking, but I tend to think that the simplest explanation for Scholz dragging his heels at every point is usually the correct one when it comes to people. And here I think Scholz isn't playing any 4D games, but is instead trying to soothe the fears of the vast swathes of his party that are very Russia-friendly since the Schröder days and who keep blaring into his ears that Germany shouldn't get involved and anger our big old friend Russia. On the other hand I severely doubt that ruining the opportunity for Germany to take a position of leadership and instead tank public perception makes sense in any kind of game plan, much less one that is in cooperation with a Polish government that has been a pain in the ass to Germany and the EU for years now and gladly leverages this opportunity for some easy reelection points.

Also I'm thinking of stuff like how Merkel's strategic advisor, some general Vad, keeps running from media outlet to media outlet, blaring on how Russia will definitely win this war in the long run and therefore support to Ukraine won't matter and that opinions like that, which, granted, had been much more prominent in the early days of the war, might still linger around in the circles of Scholz.

I'm afraid that this is closer to the truth. Even though I can't believe anyone has the illusion that Russia is anyone's friend. 
Might be that they did some war gaming that painted some dire picture what happens if Russia conquers Ukraine and lays their hands on all those leopards and other pure offensive weapons which are then missing on our side but may come back to us.

I think that's bonkers but who knows what they simulated with what likelihood.

[Zorral]

Ukraine war: Serbia uproar over Wagner mercenaries recruiting for Russia

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64329371

Quote

 

.... Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vucic, reacted angrily on national TV.

"Why do you, from Wagner, call anyone from Serbia when you know that it is against our regulations?" he said.

Critics frequently accuse Serbia of prioritising its long-standing friendship with Russia over its ambition to join the EU. But what has emerged in recent days in Belgrade shows that the picture is not so black and white.

Hinting at less-than-rosy relations with Moscow, President Vucic said that not only was Serbia "neutral" regarding the war in Ukraine, but that he had not spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin for "many months".

It is illegal for Serbians to take part in conflicts abroad. ....

 

 

[mcbigski]

So are we all on team McConnell here?  Let's expand the war until the last Ukrainian.  I tend to think Mitch would prefer we go till the last Russian here, even if that means others get thrown in the grinder.

But the military industrial complex needs to get fed.

Quote

The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded. Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific technological elite.

Also remember that the Science is establishment almost entirely.  We all think of Galileo as someone who was wronged because of the ignorance of the masses.  Really though, he threatened the establishment.  Nothing less, nothing more.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

10 hours ago, Maithanet said:

There's a big meeting at Ramstein base in Germany between Ukraine and many NATO allies.  A lot of the big announcements we've seen in the past couple of days have been in advance of that, to pressure the holdouts (particularly Germany) to increase their commitments and deliveries to Ukraine. 

Germany's position that they will not provide Leopard tanks (or allow other countries to export their Leopards) is not a good one.  My understanding is that Scholz doesn't want to provide Leopards until the US provides Abrams, but the problem is that Abrams are just not nearly as good a fit for what Ukraine is trying to do as the Leopard (specialized parts, specialized fuel, much further to ship, etc).  Now, it's possible that the US could ship a small number of Abrams just to mollify the Germans, and maybe that's how this all gets resolved, but that seems pretty silly at this point.

It is silly, but politics often is.

Point is probably more symbolic than anything. If the US delivers tanks, it provides some political cover for Scholz (we are not doing more than other NATO states). The US as the proverbial fat kid at the NATO table is key for that. I still think by the end of the meeting Leos will be available in some quantity. 

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

6 hours ago, mcbigski said:

So are we all on team McConnell here?  Let's expand the war until the last Ukrainian.  I tend to think Mitch would prefer we go till the last Russian here, even if that means others get thrown in the grinder.

But the military industrial complex needs to get fed.

Also remember that the Science is establishment almost entirely.  We all think of Galileo as someone who was wronged because of the ignorance of the masses.  Really though, he threatened the establishment.  Nothing less, nothing more.

You really are drinking that Trumpanista “we love the Russian dictator” kool aid… aren’t you?

[Jace, Extat]

He's just a man. And he has a name. 

[Padraig]

9 hours ago, mcbigski said:

We all think of Galileo as someone who was wronged because of the ignorance of the masses. 

Never mind "all".  Does anyone think that?  

But I would like most people to get behind the idea of the military industrial complex and their products being well regulated and taxed.

[Maithanet]

Both McConnell and the MIC have done a great deal of harm to the US and the world, but that hardly means that everything they do is wrong.  Instead, we should look carefully at their actions and motives and determine if they actually serve American interests.  Such questioning is certainly being done with aid to Ukraine, and in this case, it passes with flying colors.   I am more supportive of aid to Ukraine than any other military endeavor the US has undertaken since the Korean War. 

As for "fighting to the last Ukrainian", that is a big old .  Ukraine will be fighting whether they get aid from the US or not.  But without support from the US/NATO, they would have little hope in a conventional conflict and would instead be fighting a long, bloody guerrilla war which will no doubt kill many thousands, if not millions, of additional Ukrainians.  In contrast, Ukraine has an opportunity to win this war this year if we give them the support they need, and all it requires is (mostly) a bunch of second tier weapons that the US is unlikely to ever use anyway. 

[Gorn]

Also, "don't start wars of aggression because you'll get your ass kicked" is a good lesson for totalitarian regimes to learn. Or rather re-learn, since the previous lesson was WWII, and that was a long time ago.

[Wilbur]

The Ukrainians have by now built a military force of their people, and given them training as military service men and women.  So the numbers of their armed forces personnel are much larger today than they were when Russia invaded.  And Perun's recent video should be must-watch for understanding the key issue associated with the Ukrainian weakness in material right now - they lack armored mobile vehicles for their people to use.

Let me summarize what I learned from this video.

In order to advance (other than when the Russian run away and abandon territory like in Karkhiv) in the face of opposition, those new Ukrainian service men and women need equipment.  So far, the West has provided a lot of stuff, including uniforms and PPE and shells and artillery and drones and so on.  With this gear the Ukrainians can duke it out against the Russians across the lines with some success.

But in order to advance, re-take and hold territory, the Ukrainians need cavalry, or in today's terms, mobile armor.  The IFVs and tanks Ukraine had at the beginning of the war were numerically appropriate for the smaller armed forces of the pre-war period.  But a portion of that has been lost, while over that time the size in terms of personnel under arms of the Ukrainian force has increased many times over the antebellum military.

The West has provided some mobile equipment, but most of it is lacking either armor (eg. Humvees) or firepower (eg. M113s).  To attack, the Ukrainians need mobile firepower of the tank or the APC/IFV variety in sufficient numbers to match their mobilized personnel.  So the recent US donation of 50 Bradleys is nice, but it would be a better proportional fit to the Ukrainian forces if it were 500.

My guess is that if / when the West provides enough Bradleys and other armored fighting vehicles and tanks of whatever nature, then the Ukrainian forces will actually change gears from their present hold-and-destroy mode into advance-and-attack mode.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Wow.  Look at the numbers of Russian dead in two or three days: