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Ukraine: Are ya winning yet.


Varysblackfyre321

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32 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

I'm rooting for any resolution that doesn't include a nuclear exchange. 

Putin is too much of a coward to kill the world and himself over Ukraine.

33 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

I wish we had independent media, instead of billionaire owned corporate mouth pieces in lock step with their also suborned government officials.

I’m getting the impression that you think that would mean messaging closer to your political views.

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8 hours ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

This might help, but your instinct is solid - more militaristic countries have a lot of tanks:

https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Military/Army/Main-battle-tanks

That said, for a country like Ukraine having 170 tanks is equivalent to several battalions of tanks, which is effective at doing some major pushes. Note that the above numbers are not particularly numbers of ACTIVE USE tanks - most will likely be in some state of repair, maintenance, or are held in reserve for replacements. 

Do they say how they count? 3.g for Germany, are they including all the ancient Leo1 and scrap metal Leo2 that are hoarded by the tank manufacturers or do they only count the ones that are owned by the state?

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1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Putin is too much of a coward to kill the world and himself over Ukraine.

I’m getting the impression that you think that would mean messaging closer to your political views.

I won't mourn for Putin, but if he's backed into a corner, are you expecting him to act compassionately?  That seems unlikely.

As far as the media goes, yeah, my political views are bottom up and leave people alone.  So billionaire owned mass media is pretty anathema to my beliefs for the most part.  There's more money to be made shaping the news rather than reporting it, alas.

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19 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

I won't mourn for Putin, but if he's backed into a corner, are you expecting him to act compassionately?

No I’m expecting to not kill himself over his imperial ambitions.

The man has been terrified of catching covid and has never done anything more than tut his tongue and pass homophobic legislation whenever Ukraine embarrasses or the west gives Ukraine tools to embarrass him.

 

22 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

As far as the media goes, yeah, my political views are bottom up and leave people alone.  So billionaire owned mass media

That doesn’t really seem to mean anything.

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3 hours ago, mcbigski said:

As far as the media goes, yeah, my political views are bottom up and leave people alone.  So billionaire owned mass media is pretty anathema to my beliefs for the most part.

So leave people alone except if they are billionaires. Then it's okay to restrict and persecute them? Or only if they force you to turn on Fox News or download the Twitter client?

Libertarians are just a weird bunch.

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3 hours ago, mcbigski said:

I won't mourn for Putin, but if he's backed into a corner, are you expecting him to act compassionately? 

You also need to define "backed into a corner".  A rational person would view being backed into a corner with something like NATO tanks outside Moscow.  Losing a war in Ukraine is not "being backed into a corner".  If that happens.

But some people in Russia have got obsessed with the idea of the Russian Empire and losing Ukraine to the West would be a huge blow to their psyche.  Such a blow is supposed to be equivalent to being backed into a corner.  (And in fairness to Russia, people from other Empires often have this very nostalgic view of their Empires too).

But the problem with that equivalence is where does it stop?  If threatening nukes allows you to take over other countries, and Putin has big dreams, where does it stop?  There are certainly risks here but no path is without risk.

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IMO, the path where a nuclear nation wins a war of aggression merely by threatening to use nukes is the path most likely to result in a nuclear exchange in my lifetime.

Successfully using nukes as an "I win" button will lead to other nuclear nations doing the same, up until the point where one of them runs into another nuclear nation's Actual Red Line while assuming it was a bluff.

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29 minutes ago, Gorn said:

IMO, the path where a nuclear nation wins a war of aggression merely by threatening to use nukes is the path most likely to result in a nuclear exchange in my lifetime.

Successfully using nukes as an "I win" button will lead to other nuclear nations doing the same, up until the point where one of them runs into another nuclear nation's Actual Red Line while assuming it was a bluff.

It would also dramatically increase the incentive to get nuclear weapons, because apparently conventional superiority no longer matters against a nuclear power.  The list of countries which do not have nuclear weapons but could get them pretty quickly if their security required it is actually quite long.  So instead of having less than 10 nuclear nations, we'd be looking at 20-30 in short order.  Easy to see how this makes a nuclear conflagration a lot more likely. 

 

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9 hours ago, mcbigski said:

I'm rooting for any resolution that doesn't include a nuclear exchange.  I wish we had independent media, instead of billionaire owned corporate mouth pieces in lock step with their also suborned government officials.

 

Worried about the drop in the value of the Ruble are you? ^_^

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Ah, @Ser Scot A Ellison

Since you voiced some interest in the state of the German Army and were a bit in disbelief how utterly pathetic and not fit for purpose it actually is.

Spiegel Article on the matter.

Not sure it belongs here, but it probably kinda does as the it will kinda answer the unasked question, why Germany is not contributing more equipment (it virtually can't is the right answer).

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11 hours ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Sure, but it can't do things like provide cover for infantry, engage and suppress multiple other armor vehicles and take on other tanks easily. It also doesn't get disabled by nets.

Yes it can. It's called hovering 

Maybe they call it "hoovering" in the future-provinces of Briton and Gaul, I don't know

In America we call it 'hovering' 

10 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Putin is too much of a coward to kill the world and himself over Ukraine.

I’m getting the impression that you think that would mean messaging closer to your political views.

Too smart. Fearing covid when you have something to lose to it is perfectly rational. 

I think he's played his hand pretty fucking well. It's just that his hand is garbage. Waddaya gonna do? Give the motherfucker a break!

Fake his death, disappear him to some awesome island with a few of his besties, and be done with it whenever he's ready to call it quits. I mean jesus, have you people never heard of diplomacy before?

8 hours ago, mcbigski said:

I won't mourn for Putin, but if he's backed into a corner, are you expecting him to act compassionately?  That seems unlikely.

 

The easiest way to get someone out of a corner is patience. And appropriate force when necessary. 

We could have cut the head off his invasion completely conventionally and saved a lot of lives. Military and civilian. 

The fact that Russia got Crimea, then was in position to get Kyiv, while literally the entire rest of the world dithered is a victory. 

His cards sucked though. He got as far as he could by bluffing, got a little too aggressive. So now you gotta pound him like a drum until he's willing to accept some kind of EAST-WEST BERLIN but in Crimea situation where Russians get complete, FAIR, military and commercial access to whatever and whatever. And we'll even cut off sanctions and deploy economic aid packages for Ukraine and Russia both. 

But not till he stops. 

Fucking Ripp and your fucking appeasement 

(no offense!) 

8 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

No I’m expecting to not kill himself over his imperial ambitions.

The man has been terrified of catching covid and has never done anything more than tut his tongue and pass homophobic legislation whenever Ukraine embarrasses or the west gives Ukraine tools to embarrass him.

 

P-sizzle ain't cray-dizzle, y'know'what'I'mean? 

I mean US and friends have played this like, okay or whatever, but for god's sake stop playing not-to-lose and play to win! Proactive measures could have kicked Putin's face in a year ago instead of wasting everybody's time with whining about stupid nuclear apocalypses they don't even understand when the economic and CLIMATE pressures that produced things like Putin's -kinda not-insane - reasons to want to gobble up Prime:) territory are not only going unaddressed, they're getting worse! 

Anyway. Fuck America. Fuck Putin. Go Ukraine. 

Also, Ukraine, take very goddamn dollar Uncle Sam offers you. Every one of them. 

Dawg. The bank can wave all the motherfucking papers it wants at you. You usin them papers to buy guns, eh? 

 

(This is all of course an expressive statement, on the conditions pertaining to and surrounding, the war in Ukraine and the relational powers involved. Is that a good enough disclaimer? Do I have to use a different made-up legalese gibberdygook to wrap up my statements before I'm allowed to venture them into the public domain? 

Asking for a friend    :leaving:  )

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On 1/27/2023 at 6:49 AM, Padraig said:

You also need to define "backed into a corner".  A rational person would view being backed into a corner with something like NATO tanks outside Moscow.  Losing a war in Ukraine is not "being backed into a corner".  If that happens.

There is a difference between backing Russia into a corner and backing Putin into a corner though.  

On 1/27/2023 at 9:39 AM, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Worried about the drop in the value of the Ruble are you? ^_^

Ruble is about where it was 4 years ago. ???

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15 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m glad Bolisarno lost… still not fond of Lula:

Ser Scot A Ellison -- that’s very interesting! It’s clearly another instance of the BRICS+ (i.e., the incipient, World Commodity) more actively competing against the US-dominated (World Finance) world order.

Recently, the commander of Air Mobility Command emphasized his subordinate leaders should conduct “kinetic” training and legal preparations through 2025. I acknowledge his concerns (likewise, as a gut feeling only). Most likely, everything will turn out fine.

88 seconds :leer:

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On 1/27/2023 at 8:59 AM, whatever... said:

Yes it can. It's called hovering 

Maybe they call it "hoovering" in the future-provinces of Briton and Gaul, I don't know

In America we call it 'hovering' 

Too smart. Fearing covid when you have something to lose to it is perfectly rational. 

I think he's played his hand pretty fucking well. It's just that his hand is garbage. Waddaya gonna do? Give the motherfucker a break!

Fake his death, disappear him to some awesome island with a few of his besties, and be done with it whenever he's ready to call it quits. I mean jesus, have you people never heard of diplomacy before?

The easiest way to get someone out of a corner is patience. And appropriate force when necessary. 

We could have cut the head off his invasion completely conventionally and saved a lot of lives. Military and civilian. 

The fact that Russia got Crimea, then was in position to get Kyiv, while literally the entire rest of the world dithered is a victory. 

His cards sucked though. He got as far as he could by bluffing, got a little too aggressive. So now you gotta pound him like a drum until he's willing to accept some kind of EAST-WEST BERLIN but in Crimea situation where Russians get complete, FAIR, military and commercial access to whatever and whatever. And we'll even cut off sanctions and deploy economic aid packages for Ukraine and Russia both. 

But not till he stops. 

Fucking Ripp and your fucking appeasement 

(no offense!) 

P-sizzle ain't cray-dizzle, y'know'what'I'mean? 

I mean US and friends have played this like, okay or whatever, but for god's sake stop playing not-to-lose and play to win! Proactive measures could have kicked Putin's face in a year ago instead of wasting everybody's time with whining about stupid nuclear apocalypses they don't even understand when the economic and CLIMATE pressures that produced things like Putin's -kinda not-insane - reasons to want to gobble up Prime:) territory are not only going unaddressed, they're getting worse! 

Anyway. Fuck America. Fuck Putin. Go Ukraine. 

Also, Ukraine, take very goddamn dollar Uncle Sam offers you. Every one of them. 

Dawg. The bank can wave all the motherfucking papers it wants at you. You usin them papers to buy guns, eh? 

 

(This is all of course an expressive statement, on the conditions pertaining to and surrounding, the war in Ukraine and the relational powers involved. Is that a good enough disclaimer? Do I have to use a different made-up legalese gibberdygook to wrap up my statements before I'm allowed to venture them into the public domain? 

Asking for a friend    /cdn-cgi/mirage/68f913271635d22c8dad2252a3fddc53c6bcd90f6f6e469ee4697d387ebe2066/1280/https://asoiaf.westeros.org/uploads/emoticons/default_leaving.gif  )

TLDR.

I agree or disagree though 

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1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Putin won’t kill himself.

Precisely.

But when you get to the top via force, intimidation, and corruption, you don't worry so much about popular opinion.  You have to worry if your co-conspirators can find a better deal.  Power games tend to filter towards exactly the sort of people that will rub you out to get themselves ahead, regardless of the common good.

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18 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Precisely

Precisely which is why he won’t attack nato because that has a strong possibility of leading  to nuclear war which he’d be dead in.

20 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

You have to worry if your co-conspirators can find a better deal.

Those people would probably act more if they thought Putin was going to kill all of them and their families with a nuclear war.

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