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Ukraine: Are ya winning yet.


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11 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m glad Bolisarno lost… still not fond of Lula:

 

Not a fan of Lula either, though I don’t expect there to be a major rapprochement towards Russia. Nevertheless, I suspect that it doesn’t make much sense for a country like Brazil to take a hardline stance against Russia. The same way India has chosen not to take any direct action. 

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27 minutes ago, House Balstroko said:

Not a fan of Lula either, though I don’t expect there to be a major rapprochement towards Russia. Nevertheless, I suspect that it doesn’t make much sense for a country like Brazil to take a hardline stance against Russia. The same way India has chosen not to take any direct action. 

Don’t get me started on Modi…

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India's position is a bit of a tightrope. They have longstanding border disputes with China and they see themselves as well-placed to benefit from China's faltering growth and the ability to supplant China's position in Asia (India may have already overtaken China in population). China is aware of that challenge. India therefore wants to preserve peace with China and its allies (including Russia) but it also wants to preserve good relations with the US in case a conflict erupts with China and it needs allies ASAP (but not to the point where India would have to intervene if China waged a war that was not in India's area of interest, like over Taiwan).

India does seem keen for the war to end and has vocalised that, and has weaned itself off Russian military supplies in favour of France and Israel, but it's also keeping open the lines of communication and continues to buy Russian energy sources.

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Well, Russia has sown the wind, and subsequently reaped the whirlwind once again.

2014: Invade Ukraine  - - 2015: "Weapons, ammunition, explosives, explosive substances and imitation devices were used illegally 6,300 times in Russian crimes."

2022: Invade Ukraine - - 2022: "Weapons, ammunition, explosives, explosive substances and imitation devices were used illegally 5,546 times in Russian crimes"

Thanks, Hosea.

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Putin apparently threatened to blow up Boris Johnson with a cruise missile.

During (UK Defence Secretary) Ben Wallace's meeting with Shoigu and Gerasimov before the war, Shoigu said that he believed Ukraine would not fight because his mother is Ukrainian (not sure what he was saying there) and Gerasimov boasted that Russia's military had gone from #4 in the world to #2. Wallace realised they were going to invade when they kept saying dumbass stuff like that whilst simultaneously also saying they were not going to invade (rather halfheartedly).

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31 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Putin apparently threatened to blow up Boris Johnson with a cruise missile.

During (UK Defence Secretary) Ben Wallace's meeting with Shoigu and Gerasimov before the war, Shoigu said that he believed Ukraine would not fight because his mother is Ukrainian (not sure what he was saying there) and Gerasimov boasted that Russia's military had gone from #4 in the world to #2. Wallace realised they were going to invade when they kept saying dumbass stuff like that whilst simultaneously also saying they were not going to invade (rather halfheartedly).

It is this sort of bush league behavior that makes me wonder if perhaps the leadership in the Kremlin has lost their mooring on reality.  If that Wallace story is accurate, they cannot even stick with a consistent lie over the course of an entire meeting, which is very undisciplined.

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9 hours ago, Werthead said:

While that article states the threat being made to be a fact, we all know how it has lately been failing the country by its habit of taking everything Tory politicians say at face value. And:

1) Johnson has been proven, many times over, to be an utterly shameless liar who makes stuff up on the spot to make him look good to whoever he is speaking to.

2) Johnson has also been proven, many times over, to be a personal coward whose response to tricky situations is ro placate people getting in his face and/or to quietly disappear. If he had really felt personally threatened by Putin, he would have given Putin whatever he wanted and then kept as low a profile as possible. Though come to think about it, the UK has notoriously dragged its feet in imposing meaningful sanctions on Russian oligarchs.

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5 minutes ago, A wilding said:

While that article states the threat being made to be a fact, we all know how it has lately been failing the country by its habit of taking everything Tory politicians say at face value. And:

1) Johnson has been proven, many times over, to be an utterly shameless liar who makes stuff up on the spot to make him look good to whoever he is speaking to.

2) Johnson has also been proven, many times over, to be a personal coward whose response to tricky situations is ro placate people getting in his face and/or to quietly disappear. If he had really felt personally threatened by Putin, he would have given Putin whatever he wanted and then kept as low a profile as possible. Though come to think about it, the UK has notoriously dragged its feet in imposing meaningful sanctions on Russian oligarchs.

meh, Johnson is a liar, but there is little reason to lie about this. The UK has been one of the most active supporters of Ukraine in the war against Russia.

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The thing about compulsive liars is that they frequently do lie about things that make no sense and it helps them get away with their lies, because who the fuck would actually lie about something like that? I think his track record would support the possibility of him being that kind of liar.

Or he might have just really been annoying, that is also credible.

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One of the big question marks remaining in this war is the degree to which Putin (and to a lesser extent, the small circle around him) are getting high on their own [propaganda] supply.  Even before the war started, Putin was boasting (even to western ambassadors and leaders) that people in throughout Europe were skipping Pfizer and hopping on a plane to get Sputnik vaccines instead.  The lie was so ridiculous, people struggled not to laugh.  But why would he make such a lie to people who aren't in the thrall of Russian propaganda, who could never reasonably be expected to believe it?  There are really only two options I see.  Either it's a show of dominance (my truth is stronger than your truth) or Putin does not actually know the truth and is spouting lies because he doesn't know better. 

I don't know what Ukraine or Western Europe can do to break Putin out of his information bubble.  Perhaps it doesn't change anything, but it is certainly unfortunate the man who can end the war is almost impervious to information indicating that Russia is losing.

 

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The thing I wonder the most about Russian propaganda is how much they knowingly lie, and how much of their own lies they genuinely believe in. There is also a middle option, where lower ranks lie to higher ranks, which then consider those lies as truth.

For example, Russian leadership genuinely believed that a "silent majority" of Ukrainian population preferred Russia to West and that they would greet Russian army as liberators.

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17 minutes ago, Gorn said:

For example, Russian leadership genuinely believed that a "silent majority" of Ukrainian population preferred Russia to West and that they would greet Russian army as liberators.

I can’t imagine where Russians might have learned about “silent majority” political horseshit…

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51 minutes ago, karaddin said:

The thing about compulsive liars is that they frequently do lie about things that make no sense and it helps them get away with their lies, because who the fuck would actually lie about something like that? I think his track record would support the possibility of him being that kind of liar.

Or he might have just really been annoying, that is also credible.

It's difficult to judge because both interpretations are equally plausible. Is Putin so petty and insecure that he would threaten to blow up an individual state leader with missiles? Yes. Is Boris Johnson the type of person who would make the whole story up on the spot because he thought it sounded good? Also yes.

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9 minutes ago, Liffguard said:

It's difficult to judge because both interpretations are equally plausible. Is Putin so petty and insecure that he would threaten to blow up an individual state leader with missiles? Yes. Is Boris Johnson the type of person who would make the whole story up on the spot because he thought it sounded good? Also yes.

Can I imagine Boris Johnson pissing me off enough to want to lob a cruise missile at him? Absolutely.

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